Franc's CPI pop fades as USD tops strength table; JOLTS, Macklem, midterms next

New York Open, Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Published 13:00 UTC.

Mixed: Indices are down 0.56% on average over 24h, but havens are not being chased: JPY (-0.05) and CHF (0.07) are near flat, gold is up 0.57% and oil is down 2.41%.

In short

• The US calendar is light until 15:00 UTC, when JOLTS (f/c 7.13M) and Factory Orders (f/c 1.2%) land together. BoC's Macklem follows at 16:00 UTC, and midterm results are due overnight.
• London faded the Swiss CPI beat (1.5% y/y vs 1.3% forecast). USDCHF fell to a 0.8149 low, then rebounded to 0.81994, up 0.28% since the London Open note, and EURCHF is up 0.18%.
• Oil gave back 0.83% to 97.63 and metals steadied (XAGUSD +0.81%, XAUUSD +0.32%). USD now leads the strength table (0.18) and AUD is still the weakest major (-0.35).

Themes

Dollar edges to the top as midterms near

USD now leads the strength table at 0.18. The desk describes the dollar as mildly firm but range-bound below 102.00, with a Democratic gain largely priced and a December Fed hike ~73% priced. A GOP-held Senate or split result is the less-priced outcome, and this afternoon's JOLTS and Factory Orders feed straight into hike odds.

Swiss CPI beat, then the franc gave it back

October CPI at 1.5% y/y (a 2-yr+ high) briefly extended CHF's rally, with USDCHF printing 0.8149. The move has since reversed, leaving USDCHF at 0.81994 and EURCHF at 0.91668, both higher since the London Open note. The desk had flagged stretched momentum and sees SNB Chairman Schlegel on Thursday as the first chance to validate the inflation story.

Oil eases, metals catch a breath

XTIUSD slipped 0.83% since the last note to 97.63 in headline-driven trade, with Iran saying contacts with the US continue without a breakthrough. Gold and silver are trading inversely to oil through the inflation and Fed channel, and both recovered part of the day's losses: XAUUSD is at 3924.13 and XAGUSD at 49.449. Both are still down on the day.

What moved

• USD/CHF +0.28% The franc's post-CPI spike (a -0.27% USDCHF alert at 07:36 UTC) reversed; the desk had flagged USD/CHF as oversold after a >1% two-day drop and said follow-through likely needs SNB's Schlegel to validate the inflation story.
• XTI/USD −0.83% Crude gave back part of its Qeshm-strike rebound in two-way headline trade; no single clear driver in our news feed for the London dip.
• XAG/USD +0.81% Silver bounced off a 48.609 day low as oil eased; the desk notes oil up has meant silver down this week via inflation and Fed-hike odds, and flags silver as deeply oversold.
• USD/JPY +0.23% The yen stays soft, with USD/JPY near the top of its 157.00–158.60 band on Fed hike bets; Finance Minister Katayama's intervention threats keep a lid on the move.
• UK100 −0.72% No single clear driver in our news feed.

Releases

• TRY Consumer Price Index (YoY) 29.77%. No TRY pair in our price set and no visible spillover to the majors.
• CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.2%. Part of the beat that drove USDCHF down 0.27% within the hour (07:36 UTC alert), though the pair has since rebounded to 0.81994.
• CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.5%. Drove the session's sharpest moves (hourly alerts of -0.28% in EURCHF and +0.23% in CHFJPY), but EURCHF is now 0.91668, up 0.18% since the London Open note, so the reaction has unwound.

Levels to watch

• USD/CHF 0.8192 Former multi-week floor broken on the H4; price is back around it after rebounding from the 0.8149 low.
• USD/JPY 158.35 Middle of the 158.00–158.60 H4 resistance cluster; today's high of 158.299 sits just beneath it.
• EUR/USD 1.11767 Nearest H4 higher-low inside the 1.1104–1.1260 range; today's low of 1.1175 is at it.
• USD/CAD 1.39414 Low since mid-September, sitting under the H4 falling wedge that has been compressing into Macklem.

Ahead

• 15:00 UTC USD Factory Orders (MoM) Expected at 1.2% from 0.1%. It lands alongside JOLTS and feeds December Fed-hike odds (~73% priced), so USD pairs and gold are exposed.
• 15:00 UTC USD JOLTS Job Openings Forecast 7.13M vs 7.079M prior; the desk sees room in both directions for Dec-hike pricing, which runs through USDJPY, EURUSD, XAUUSD and XAGUSD.
• 16:00 UTC CAD BoC's Governor Macklem speech A hawkish BoC is largely priced, so any growth-worry or 'near-neutral' framing has more room to move CAD, with USDCAD near seven-week lows.
• 18:00 UTC EUR ECB's Nagel speech This comes ahead of Wednesday's flash HICP (headline f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%), with EUR heavy on the crosses on French fiscal stress.
• 18:15 UTC EUR ECB's Sleijpen speech A second ECB voice before HICP. Another hike is already priced, so dovish hints carry more weight for EURUSD and EUR crosses.
• 21:45 UTC NZD Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.5% vs 5.6%. This is the test of December RBNZ hike pricing; the desk sees more NZD downside on a soft print than upside on a strong one.
• 21:45 UTC NZD Employment Change Forecast 0.4% vs 0.5%. It lands in the same window as US midterm results, exposing NZDUSD and AUDNZD.
• 21:45 UTC NZD Labour Cost Index (QoQ) Forecast 0.5% vs 0.7%. The wage side of the jobs report also bears on the December hike call.
• 22:00 UTC AUD S&P Global Services PMI Forecast 47.8, unchanged. It is the first data on AUD after the dovish RBA hike left it the weakest major.

Watch the 15:00 UTC US data and Macklem's tone, then the overnight midterm results and NZ jobs at 21:45 UTC, which together decide whether the dollar breaks out of its range.