Payrolls at 08:30 ET land on a risk-off tape: dollar leads, European stocks slide

New York Open, Friday, 6 November 2026. Published 13:00 UTC.

Risk-off: Risk appetite stays weak: indices average -3.94% over 24h, USD and JPY lead the strength table, and gold (-1.35% 24h) is not catching a haven bid.

In short

• The US jobs report lands at 13:30 UTC. NFP is forecast at 65K (prior 29K), average hourly earnings at 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y, and unemployment at 4.2%. Canada's jobs report comes at the same time (f/c 13.6K, prior -68.3K). The desk's read: a December Fed hike is widely priced, so a soft print carries more repricing risk than a strong one.
• London leaned on Europe. Euro-area retail sales missed at -0.7% m/m vs -0.1% expected, and EURUSD is -0.45% on the day at 1.11683, near the day low. UK100 fell -1.92% and FRA40 -1.21% since the London Open note, while USTEC held up at +0.46% and is +1.71% on the day.
• USD (0.69) and JPY (0.67) still top the 24h strength table, with AUD last at -1.42. NZDUSD is -0.86% on the day at 0.55445, near 19-month lows, ahead of Saturday's NZ election. After payrolls come Michigan sentiment at 15:00 UTC, BoJ Governor Ueda at 16:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 17:15 UTC.

Themes

Payrolls: a priced hike makes a miss the bigger risk

The desk sees the market braced for a strong print against a low 65K bar, after ADP 86K, claims 189K and JOLTS 7.52M. A December Fed hike is widely priced, so a strong number mostly confirms the status quo. A soft one, arriving as the equity rout tightens financial conditions (MUFG), could challenge hike pricing and has the larger USD impact.

Antipodeans pinned at multi-month lows

AUDUSD is at 0.68758 after a seven-month low of 0.6862, trading as a risk and USD proxy now that the RBA peak is fully priced. NZDUSD sits at 0.55445 near 19-month lows, and Saturday's election, with no majority in sight, adds weekend gap risk. Desk digests flag that a soft NFP could spark short-covering from stretched lows, while risk-off caps rebounds.

Europe sold, US tech steadied

European indices took the brunt of the London session: UK100 is -1.92% and FRA40 -1.21% since the London Open note. USTEC added 0.46% over the same window and is +1.71% on the day. That still leaves US500 at -4.3% over 24h, so the AI-led rout has paused rather than reversed.

What moved

• UK100 −1.92% London stocks fell alongside the global AI-stock sell-off the desk digests flag; there is no UK-specific driver in our news feed.
• EUR/USD −0.45% Euro-area retail sales missed badly (-0.7% m/m vs -0.1% forecast) on top of safe-haven dollar demand, and European investors are parking cash in USD (ING).
• NZD/USD −0.86% Broad safe-haven USD demand and positioning for a strong NFP pushed the kiwi to fresh 19-month lows around 0.5540, with Saturday's NZ election adding political uncertainty.
• XTI/USD −1.39% WTI gave back part of its two-day rebound off the $86 200-day SMA; the desk notes upside is capped as traders wait for payrolls, while Hormuz tanker headlines keep a floor under dips.
• USTEC +1.71% Tech is steadying after Thursday's AI and semiconductor rout (Nasdaq -5.5%); there is no single clear driver for the bounce in our news feed.

Releases

• EUR Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) 0.4%. The euro drew no lasting support; EURUSD is -0.45% on the day.
• EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) 0.7%. The beat was ignored: EURUSD kept sliding through the session to 1.11683.
• EUR Retail Sales (YoY) 0.4%. The miss added to euro pressure, with EURUSD -0.12% since the London Open note and trading at the day low area.
• EUR Retail Sales (MoM) -0.7%. The desk cites the miss as a driver of the euro's slide, and EURJPY is flat since the last note at 176.829 as the yen stayed firm on the crosses.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1104 Floor of the five-week 1.1104–1.1276 range. Price is trading just under the 1.1175 D1 support, with the day low at 1.11676.
• USD/JPY 158.77 Top of the 157.25–158.77 H4 range with lower highs forming; the day high so far is 158.378.
• XAU/USD 4,057.79 D1 support just below the 4063.6 last price, inside a lower-high/lower-low chain that is testing a falling trendline; the day low is 4035.83.
• USD/CAD 1.4068 Resistance on both H4 and D1, with price at 1.40659 just beneath it and H4 RSI at 72 after the falling-wedge break.

Ahead

• 13:30 UTC USD Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast 65K vs 29K prior after a strong week of labour data. A December Fed hike is widely priced, so a miss is the bigger risk for the USD, with gold, the Antipodeans and US indices most exposed.
• 13:30 UTC USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) Forecast 0.3% vs 0.1% prior. Desk digests say wages matter more for hike pricing after the -0.7% unit labour cost print, with USD and metals most exposed.
• 13:30 UTC USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) Forecast 2.9% vs 3% prior; the annual wage pace feeds directly into December Fed hike odds.
• 13:30 UTC CAD Unemployment Rate Forecast to hold at 4.2%; a jump would reinforce any soft-payroll read and test the priced December hike.
• 13:30 UTC CAD Net Change in Employment Forecast 13.6K after -68.3K. It lands with US NFP, so the relative surprise between the two drives USDCAD, now near 1.4068 resistance.
• 15:00 UTC USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Forecast 48 vs 48 prior. Released alongside 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations (prior 4.7% and 3.5%), so it is a second US test for the dollar and yields.
• 16:00 UTC JPY BoJ Governor Ueda speech December BoJ hike bets were rebuilt by hawkish minutes and the 4.6% wage print. A noncommittal tone is the bigger yen risk per the desk, with USDJPY and the JPY crosses exposed.
• 17:15 UTC USD Fed's Bowman speech The first Fed voice after payrolls; any read on December hike pricing could extend or fade the post-data USD move.

Beyond the 13:30 UTC prints, Ueda at 16:00 UTC tests whether December BoJ hike bets survive, with USDJPY near the top of its 157.25–158.77 H4 range.