Nikkei +1.9%, silver +2.9% in Asia; USD still on top into German HICP, Lagarde

London Open, Wednesday, 11 November 2026. Published 07:00 UTC.

Risk-on: Indices are up 0.42% on average over 24h, CHF is the weakest major at -0.45 and JPY barely registers at 0.08, so haven demand is thin. Gold's -1.53% 24h loss reflects the yield spike, not fear.

In short

• Asia leaned risk-friendly. JPN225 rose 1.86% and NAS100 1.01% since the Asia Open note. CHF fell to the bottom of our strength table at -0.45, while USD still leads at 0.72.
• Metals clawed back part of the CPI flush: XAGUSD is up 2.94% to 53.054, XPTUSD up 2.2% and XAUUSD up 0.58% to 4058.83. USDJPY is at 158.853, just under its 158.956 day high and the 159.032 D1 range top.
• Europe opens with German final HICP at 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8% y/y, -0.1% m/m), then ECB's Cipollone at 07:50, Nagel at 08:15 and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC. No US data is scheduled in this window.

Themes

Fed 25bp vs 50bp debate keeps the dollar in front

USD's strength score rose to 0.72 from 0.59 at the Asia Open note. Goolsbee called CPI 'borderline disturbing' and Paulson backed further 'gradual' hikes. With a December hike essentially priced, the desk sees jumbo-hike odds as the marginal USD driver. Thursday's Fed slate and Friday's PPI are the next tests.

Metals and equities claw back CPI losses

Silver, platinum and gold all bounced through Asia, with XAGUSD back at the $53.00 pivot the desk has seen cap rallies inside its downtrend. JPN225 and NAS100 led a firm equity tone with no single clear driver in our news feed. Gold remains below the $4,146-4,150 double top while US 10y yields sit around 5%.

Yen pinned at range top, franc the weak link

USDJPY is pressing the 159.00-159.04 area that SocGen marks as resistance, with recent confirmed MOF intervention still fresh in memory. CHF is the weakest major as its haven premium drains, and USDCHF at 0.82717 is above the 0.8250 area the desk flagged.

What moved

• JPN225 +1.86% No single clear driver in our news feed; the move came alongside a 1.01% NAS100 gain in the same window.
• XAG/USD +2.94% Asian dip-buying extended the rebound from the hot-CPI flush to near $51.23, taking silver back to the $53.00 pivot the desk flagged.
• XAU/USD +0.58% Dip buyers lifted gold as the dollar paused and US-Iran diplomacy hopes took the edge off the USD rally, though 10y yields above 5% remain the headwind.
• USD/CHF +0.26% Hot US CPI and hawkish Fed talk keep the pair above its 50-day SMA at 0.8227, while easing Middle East tensions drain CHF haven demand.
• EUR/USD −0.14% The widening Fed lead over an already-priced ECB keeps EUR heavy in the lower half of its five-week range.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 159.032 Top of the 156.08-159.03 range in place since late September. Price is just below it, and the JPY digest flags intervention sensitivity around 159.00.
• USD/CHF 0.8268 CPI-day high now being tested, after a double bottom at 0.8127/0.8133 and a run of higher lows.
• EUR/USD 1.11448 Nearest H4 support, just under the 1.11506 day low, with 1.11308 and 1.11042 below at the base of the five-week range.
• GBP/USD 1.3312 The lower low that defines the developing H4 downtrend. The day low of 1.33318 sits just above it.

Ahead

• 07:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) German final HICP is expected at 2.8%, unchanged from the prior; a December ECB hike is already consensus, so EURUSD and EURGBP need a surprise to react much.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) Forecast is -0.1%, matching the prior, and it confirms the monthly profile behind the headline rate for EUR crosses.
• 07:50 UTC EUR ECB's Cipollone speech The desk sees hawkish ECB-speak as largely priced, so only a shift in tone on December would move EURUSD.
• 08:15 UTC EUR ECB's Nagel speech Nagel has already called a December hike 'obvious', so the market will listen for any hint on the size or pace beyond it.
• 09:45 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech Lagarde is the main European event of the day for EURUSD, which is pinned near the lower half of its 1.1100-1.1300 range by Fed 50bp talk.

Watch whether German HICP or Lagarde can shift EUR against a dollar driven by Fed 25-vs-50bp pricing, and whether USDJPY breaks out of or rejects its 159.032 range top before Thursday's Fedspeak.