Aussie jobs miss and JP225 slide mark Asia; dollar fade meets UK GDP, then US PPI

London Open, Thursday, 15 October 2026. Published 06:00 UTC.

Risk-off: Indices average -1.71% over 24h and JPY leads strength at 0.39 while AUD trails at -0.74. Gold is still -0.45% on 24h, so the haven bid is in the yen rather than metals.

In short

• Australia's September jobs report missed badly: employment -39.3K vs a 20K forecast, unemployment 4.7% vs 4.6%. AUD is now bottom of 24h strength at -0.74, with AUDNZD -0.54% and EURAUD +0.64% since the Asia Open note.
• The dollar fade went further. EURUSD is +0.31% since the last note at 1.12158, USDCHF is -0.38% and gold is +0.89% at 4139.01. JP225 fell another 2.73% and is -6.62% on the week.
• UK August GDP (f/c -0.1%) lands at 06:00 UTC. The bigger test is the 12:30 UTC US cluster: Retail Sales (f/c 0.3%), PPI (f/c 0.5% m/m) and core PPI y/y (f/c 4.4%).

Themes

Dollar unwind heads into its real test

The post-CPI dollar spike keeps deflating as Treasury yields retreat. Headlines show DXY back below 102.00 from a 102.90 high, EURUSD is +0.54% on the day and USDCHF -0.58%. With ~42% October hike odds already priced, the desk frames the 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales as deciding whether the rally resumes or the unwind extends.

AUD takes the jobs hit, NZD holds Conway's bid

The -39.3K employment print put AUD at the bottom of the strength table at -0.74, while NZD ranks second at 0.18. AUDNZD and EURAUD are running at about twice their typical ranges (2.05 and 1.96). The full-time gain of 34.4K leaves the RBA hike case bruised rather than broken, per the desk.

Tokyo stocks slide as the yen firms

JP225 is -3.05% on the day and -6.62% on the week, and JPY leads 24h strength at 0.39. USDJPY sits at 157.865, near the bottom of its H4 157.50–159.00 range. The desk describes 159.00 as a soft ceiling on intervention fear and sees a hawkish BoJ surprise as an unpriced yen tail.

What moved

• JP225 −2.73% No single clear driver in our news feed; the drop came as the yen rose to a one-week high on sliding US yields and USTEC slipped 0.32% over the same window.
• AUD/NZD −0.54% Australia's jobs miss (-39.3K vs 20K f/c) hit AUD while NZD held its bid after RBNZ's Conway called the October decision 'completely open'.
• EUR/USD +0.31% The USD gave back more of its post-CPI spike as Treasury yields retreated, with headlines showing DXY skidding below 102.00.
• XAU/USD +0.89% Gold snapped a three-day losing streak as US yields and the dollar eased off their post-CPI highs, per the desk digest.
• USD/CHF −0.38% Part of the same USD unwind on lower yields; the platform flagged a -0.32% hourly drop at 01:06 UTC with no event attached.

Releases

• AUD Employment Change s.a. -39.3K. AUDUSD fell 0.31% in the hour after the print and AUDJPY dropped 0.32% within 15 minutes. AUDUSD is -0.33% since the last note at 0.69527.
• AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. 4.7%. It added to the selling. AUDJPY is -0.44% since the last note and AUD sits bottom of 24h strength at -0.74.
• AUD Full-Time Employment 34.4K. The desk reads the full-time gain as leaving the RBA hike case bruised rather than broken. AUDUSD's day low of 0.69449 held above 0.6935 D1 support.
• AUD Part-Time Employment -73.7K. Part-time losses drove the headline miss, and EURAUD rose 0.37% in the hour after the data.
• AUD Participation Rate 66.8%. It added to the soft read. AUDNZD is -0.61% on the day on a range 2.05 times typical.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1243 First H4 resistance above price, just over today's 1.12408 high. The H4 lower-high sequence from 1.1276 remains in place beneath it.
• GBP/USD 1.3200 H4 support at the floor of the 1.3180–1.3311 range, reclaimed after the CPI false break. Price is 1.32399 into UK GDP.
• USD/JPY 157.50 Bottom of the H4 157.50–159.00 range. Today's low of 157.584 stopped just above it.
• AUD/USD 0.6935 Floor of the two-week D1 0.6935–0.7000 range. The post-jobs low of 0.69449 held above it.

Ahead

• 06:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (MoM) A -0.1% contraction is expected after 0.4%, with GBPUSD and EURGBP exposed. The desk sees a modest miss as largely priced and more asymmetry in an upside surprise or a deep contraction.
• 06:00 UTC GBP Industrial Production (MoM) Forecast -0.1% vs 0.2% prior; it arrives alongside GDP and adds to the read on UK growth for GBP crosses.
• 06:45 UTC EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) Forecast 3.4%, unchanged from prior. It feeds the dovish ECB repricing that the desk sees capping EURUSD rebounds.
• 08:45 UTC GBP BoE's Breeden speech Markets price about four BoE hikes over the next year, and Pill has just pushed back on that. Breeden's tone matters for GBPUSD and EURGBP.
• 09:00 UTC EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) Forecast 0% after -0.1%; a second-tier read for EURUSD ahead of the US data.
• 12:30 UTC USD Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast 0.3% after 1.2%. The desk sees an in-line or soft print extending the overnight USD unwind, with EURUSD, USDJPY and XAUUSD most exposed.
• 12:30 UTC USD Retail Sales Control Group No forecast, prior 1.4%. This is the cleanest consumer read feeding October Fed hike odds, which sit near ~42%.
• 12:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index (MoM) Forecast 0.5% vs 0.4% prior. The desk notes a hot print may be needed just to defend the dollar's post-CPI highs.
• 12:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) Forecast 4.4% vs 4.6% prior. After the CPI beat it tests the hawkish repricing in USD, gold and US indices.
• 12:30 UTC USD Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 200K vs 197K; it lands in the same 12:30 UTC cluster and adds to the USD read.
• 12:30 UTC USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Forecast 28.4 after 37.8; a further input on US activity alongside Empire State (f/c 10.3).

Until the next note, the question is whether the overnight dollar unwind survives the 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales. EURUSD 1.1243 and USDJPY 157.5 are the H4 markers.