Warsh stays neutral and the dollar slips; NZD leads Asia, euro CPI at 09:00 UTC

London Open, Friday, 16 October 2026. Published 06:00 UTC.

Mixed: Indices average +1.26% over 24h and JPY is slightly soft at -0.09, but gold is +0.73%, oil +2.69% and CHF strength is 0.31, so havens have not been given up.

In short

• Warsh said he would deliver price stability but won't pre-judge meetings. The dollar index extended its decline to near 101.80, and USDJPY is -0.15% since the Asia open at 157.873, still above 157.50 support.
• NZDUSD is +0.48% since the last note at 0.56501, with a range 1.13x a normal day, the only FX pair above typical. AUDUSD is +0.35% at 0.69424, but AUD is still the weakest major on strength at -0.36 against NZD at 0.73.
• Euro-area final inflation at 09:00 UTC (CPI y/y f/c 4.2%, core HICP y/y f/c 2.5%) and US industrial production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) are the scheduled data. WTI is -0.41% on the day at 96.9.

Themes

Warsh adds nothing hawkish, dollar fade extends

Warsh said he would deliver price stability but would not pre-judge meetings, and the dollar index slid to near 101.80, a 10-day low. That follows Thursday's PPI at 6.3% y/y against 5.3% forecast, which failed to lift the dollar as Treasury yields fell, so the market is fading US data. USD sits at -0.23 on strength, with EURUSD at 1.12234 and GBPUSD at 1.32952.

Antipodean split: NZD leads, AUD still bottom

NZD tops the strength board at 0.73 while AUD is last at -0.36, and AUDNZD is -0.81% over 24h and -1.11% on the week. NZD has hawkish RBNZ guidance and a PMI jump to 56.5 behind it. AUD is still absorbing a jobs shock that cut November RBA hike odds to ~15-20%. Both bounced against the dollar in Asia, so the next US yield move matters for each.

Havens stay bid as oil cools after its run

Gold is at 4171.18, +0.73% over 24h, pressing the $4,170-4,200 cap the desk flags, and CHF strength stands at 0.31. WTI is -0.41% on the day at 96.9 after Trump said he would not use nuclear weapons in Iran, though Hormuz incidents and the big EIA draw kept dips shallow. Weekend Middle East and US-Iran headlines are the gap risk into Monday.

What moved

• NZD/USD +0.48% It rose to near 0.5650 as Warsh gave no hint on the October decision, adding to RBNZ Conway's 'wide open' hike guidance and a Business NZ PMI jump to 56.5.
• AUD/USD +0.35% It bounced toward 0.6950 on modest USD selling after Warsh's speech, a relief move after September jobs printed -39.3K against +20K expected.
• XAG/USD +0.81% Silver extended its rebound on safe-haven demand, lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar, though it is still -5.24% on the week.
• USD/JPY −0.15% It faded below 158.00 after Warsh's remarks offered no new rate signal, with US Treasury comments that the yen level 'must change' in the background, and the 157.50 support held.
• USTEC +0.57% Nasdaq futures firmed through Asia after Thursday's AI-investment worries; there is no single clear driver in our news feed for the bounce.

Levels to watch

• NZD/USD 0.5634 This was the top of the broken 0.5580-0.5635 range and is now the first H4 support beneath price at 0.56501.
• AUD/USD 0.6950 First H4 resistance in the downtrend; the day high of 0.69478 sits just beneath it after the relief bounce.
• GBP/USD 1.3311 The top of the three-week 1.3180-1.3311 range, with price at 1.32952 just below.
• EUR/USD 1.1242 H4 and D1 resistance under which the pair has been consolidating since breaking its lower-high line.

Ahead

• 09:00 UTC EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY) The final print is expected unchanged at 4.2%. With a December ECB hike the consensus, the read lands on EURUSD and EURGBP near this week's highs.
• 09:00 UTC EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) Core is forecast at 2.5%, the same as before. Our EUR desk sees a confirmatory print adding less to the euro than a surprise that questions the December hike would take away.
• 09:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) The monthly figure is forecast at 0.6%, matching the previous reading. It is part of the same 09:00 UTC batch that tests EURUSD's bounce, which so far has been driven by the dollar.
• 09:00 UTC EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) The EU-norm measure is forecast at 4.1%, unchanged. Any revision from flash shifts the energy-driven inflation story behind ECB hike pricing.
• 09:00 UTC EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) There is no forecast and the previous reading was 0.2%, so this is the one figure in the batch without a consensus anchor for EUR crosses.
• 13:15 UTC USD Industrial Production (MoM) It is forecast at 0.4% after 0%, and it is the only US data before the European close. Strong US data has recently been poorly rewarded, which matters for the dollar, gold and USDJPY.

The key test is whether the dollar's post-Warsh slide holds through euro-area CPI at 09:00 UTC and US industrial production at 13:15 UTC, with DXY's 101.80 low and USDJPY's 157.50 support as the tells.