Yen still the weakest major into Tokyo; gold stays under $4,150 ahead of PBoC

Asia Open, Tuesday, 20 October 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.

Mixed: Safe havens are out of favour, with JPY (-0.43) and CHF (-0.15) the weakest majors and gold down 0.99% over 24h. Indices average only -0.08%, though, so this looks like a yields story rather than a broad risk-on move.

In short

• A quiet handover from New York, with ranges well below normal (USDJPY rangeVsTypical 0.19, EURUSD 0.08). JPY is still the weakest major over 24h (-0.43). USDJPY is at 158.566 and AUDJPY at 110.705, above the 110.64 falling-wedge breakout.
• Gold has slipped another 0.16% since the Daily Wrap to 4133.93, still below the $4,150 range floor. Silver is down 0.33% to 56.884, under the $57.00 pivot the desk flags.
• The PBoC decision at 01:15 UTC (f/c 3%) is the only scheduled Asia-Pacific event. UK labour data at 06:00 UTC then takes over: ILO unemployment f/c 4.9%, claimant count f/c 19.4K.

Themes

Yen crosses keep grinding; Ueda's hawkish talk ignored

Governor Ueda's comment that underlying inflation is 'quite close' to 2% has done nothing for the yen. JPY is the weakest major, and AUDJPY at 110.705 sits above its 110.64 wedge breakout. The desk sees intervention risk capping USDJPY toward 160.00. Japan's September trade balance (Tue 23:50 UTC) and national CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC, core f/c 2.1%) are the tests that could revive October BoJ hike bets.

Antipodeans near range tops on China and RBA

AUDUSD at 0.69817 is pressing toward the top of its 0.6900–0.7000 range. Speculative AUD shorts are crowded (net -117.3K) and markets price under 20% odds of a November RBA hike. NZDUSD at 0.56621 has rebounded for three days into Wednesday's Q3 CPI, with about 80% of an RBNZ hike already priced.

What moved

• XAU/USD −0.16% WTI near $99 has kept the 10y Treasury yield around 5.144%, and real yields are leading gold lower, according to the desk digest.
• XAG/USD −0.33% Silver's rebound stalled below $58 as the USD and Treasury yields stabilised, leaving it inside a bearish channel, per the digest.
• USD/CHF +0.16% The franc is giving back part of last week's rally as US yields hold their rebound to about 5.13%, with the Fed–SNB rate gap capping CHF.
• AUD/JPY +0.13% The cross is extending its wedge breakout on hawkish comments from RBA Assistant Governor Kent, China's Q3 GDP beat and a soft yen.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 158.75 First H4 resistance inside the 157.55–158.95 range, with higher lows building beneath it.
• AUD/USD 0.6993 Lower high inside the 0.6900–0.7010 range, just below the 0.7013 range top.
• XAU/USD 4,103.93 Only H4 support listed, at the higher low within the 4066–4227 range; price is trading below the $4,150 floor of the tighter three-week range.

Ahead

• 01:15 UTC CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision A hold at 3% is expected. Any surprise would hit AUD and NZD, which have been leaning on China's upbeat Q3 GDP, and USD/CNH, already near multi-year lows.
• 06:00 UTC GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) The forecast is 4.9%, unchanged. With a November BoE hike fully priced, a soft print has more room to move GBPUSD, EURGBP and GBPJPY than a firm one.
• 06:00 UTC GBP Claimant Count Change The forecast is 19.4K versus 27.8K previously. It is an early read on whether the labour market supports the BoE hike pricing that sterling has leaned on.
• 06:00 UTC GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) The forecast is 3.6% versus 3.5% previously. Wages are the input most tied to BoE hike bets, and specs hold deepening GBP shorts that a hot print could squeeze.

Through Tokyo and Sydney, watch whether the yen's slide on the crosses keeps going with no domestic catalyst, and whether the PBoC at 01:15 UTC gives AUD the push toward 0.7000 that China's GDP beat started.