Metals liquidation and an AI-tech sell-off close the week; RBA, midterms, BoE next

Week in Review, Friday, 30 October 2026. Published 21:15 UTC.

Risk-off: Risk appetite faded into the weekend: indices averaged -1.25% over 24h and gold fell 3.62% with no haven bid, while JPY (0.07) firmed modestly and CHF (-0.05) lagged as high oil eroded its haven appeal.

In short

• Precious metals took the week's heaviest damage. XAGUSD is down 8.83% and XAUUSD 3% on the week, with gold at 3875.36 after breaking $3,900 to its lowest since October 2025. The desk reads it as a positioning flush tied to the tech rout, not a rates move: December Fed hike odds actually eased to 70%.
• In a crowded central-bank week, the Fed held at 4%, the ECB at 2.5% and the BoJ at 1.25% (a hawkish 8-1 vote), while the BoC hiked to 2.5% and the RBNZ surprised with a hold at 2.75%. US GDP beat (3.4% vs 3.2%) and core PCE held at 3.1%, yet the dollar softened as AI-spending doubts pushed money into Treasuries. USTEC lost 2.09% and GOOGL 11.45%.
• Next week stacks the risk. ISM Manufacturing lands Monday. Tuesday brings the RBA (f/c 4.85%) and the US midterms, with Tokyo shut for Culture Day. NZ jobs and ADP follow, and the BoE decides on Thursday with a hike to 4.00% fully priced. GBP ends the week as the strongest major (0.12) and EUR the weakest (-0.11).

Themes

Metals flush: liquidation, not rates

Gold fell even as December Fed hike odds slipped from about 84-85% to 70%. The desk reads that as margin and loss-covering selling tied to the tech rout. Speculative gold longs were trimmed only to 186.5K from 199.9K, so the long base remains large. Silver underperformed, with the gold/silver ratio jumping to 78.54 from 77.08, and XPTUSD lost 7.32% on the week.

AI-spending doubts hit tech and yields

Disappointing tech earnings raised doubts about returns on AI spending. Money moved into Treasuries and pulled yields lower, leaving DXY down for a third straight day near 101.65-101.75. GOOGL, META and NVDA led losses, USTEC fell 2.09%, and the selling spread to Asian indices including JP225.

Policy divergence: sterling up, euro and kiwi down

Sterling rallied for three days into the BoE on a fully priced November hike to 4.00%, with GBPUSD testing six-week highs near 1.3420. The euro stayed heavy despite a GDP beat and hawkish ECB talk. In the antipodes, AUDNZD gained 1.24% as the RBNZ held while RBA hike bets firmed. The desk notes heavy speculative shorts in GBP (-79.4K) and AUD (-128.3K) leave room for sharp squeezes if the BoE or RBA surprise hawkish.

Oil's war premium props up CAD

WTI tagged $104.00, its highest since May 19, on Houthi claims against Saudi energy sites and attacks on Hormuz shipping. Diplomacy headlines have produced only $2-3 dips. That bid, plus a softer USD, took USDCAD to six-week lows despite a second flat Canadian GDP print. Iran's reply to the Qatari draft and Sunday's OPEC+ meeting are the weekend swing factors.

What moved

• XAG/USD −8.83% A three-day slide that began after the Fed hold and strong US GDP broke below $50 to the lowest since November 2025, which the desk attributes to rate expectations and broad precious-metals liquidation.
• GOOGL −11.45% Biggest loser in the week's AI-tech sell-off, which the desk ties to disappointing tech earnings raising doubts about returns on AI spending.
• XAU/USD −3.00% Broke the $3,886 floor and the $3,900 handle to a $3,880 YTD low even as December hike odds eased, a liquidation-led move with Fed speakers Logan and Musalem still pressing for hikes.
• USTEC −2.09% AI-spending doubts hit tech-heavy indices, and the selling spread to Asia, with Nikkei weakness and KOSPI down 5.2% per the desk's JPY digest.
• NZD/USD −1.19% The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% (f/c 3%) knocked the pair to a 0.5584 low. The rebound toward 0.5650 leaned on a hawkish 4-3 split and a softer USD.
• EUR/GBP −0.45% Fully priced BoE hike bets lifted sterling while the euro stayed heavy on growing speculative shorts (CFTC -143.9K from -134.5K), taking the cross to a 19-month low at 0.8336.

Releases

• NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.75%. The surprise hold sent NZDUSD to a 0.5584 low, and the pair ends the week down 1.19% despite a partial recovery toward 0.5650.
• CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.5%. The hike was about 80% priced and barely moved CAD; USDCAD's later slide to six-week lows came from oil above $103 and a softer USD.
• USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 4%. After a post-FOMC dip in the dollar, Fed speakers kept up hawkish pressure, and silver's three-day slide began from this point.
• USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized 3.4%. The beat did not lift the dollar on a sustained basis, but it pushed AUDUSD down to 0.7020 and added to pressure on metals.
• USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) 3.1%. The in-line but sticky print kept the hike case alive without adding new hawkish fuel, since hike pricing was already in place.
• EUR ECB Rate On Deposit Facility 2.5%. A December hike remains the base case, but hawkish ECB talk did little for the euro, and EURUSD ends the week down 0.39%.
• JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 1.25%. An 8-1 hawkish hold (Takata dissenting for 1.50%) pushed USDJPY to 157.12, but Ueda's vague timing let it bounce to around 157.70, and the pair is up 0.48% on the week.
• EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) 2.8%. The German undershoot came as EURUSD reversed from its 1.1214 intraday high to about 1.1140, and the pair is down 0.18% on the day.

Levels to watch

• XAU/USD 3,900.00 Former $3,900 handle, now H4 resistance after Friday's break, which also took out the floor of the 3976–4083 range.
• XAG/USD 48.64 Next H4 support below this week's 48.858 low, with H4 RSI at 16 marking an oversold extreme.
• EUR/USD 1.1104 Floor of the 1.1104–1.1269 October D1 range, inside a lower-high, lower-low downtrend from 1.1711.
• GBP/USD 1.3419 D1 resistance at the six-week-high zone, probed this week with a 1.34335 high, with a D1 higher low at 1.3272 below.
• USD/CAD 1.3941 H4 support at this week's 1.39417 low area, the end of a lower-high, lower-low sequence from 1.4299.
• NZD/USD 0.5583 D1 support near the post-RBNZ low, within the 0.5565–0.5710 October range and below a falling EMA(50).

Ahead

• 15:00 UTC USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 54.7 vs 54.5 prior, with Prices Paid (f/c 77.5) the component most likely to move yields and Fed hike odds; exposes USD, XAUUSD, XAGUSD and BTCUSD.
• 03:30 UTC AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision A hike to 4.85% from 4.6% is about 80% priced against a heavy speculative AUD short, so the guidance matters more than the move for AUDUSD, AUDNZD and AUDJPY.
• 05:00 UTC USD US Midterm Elections The desk flags the vote as the key trigger for feared post-election US strikes on Iran, which exposes XTIUSD, the USD and US indices; the Tokyo Stock Exchange is shut that day for Culture Day.
• 21:45 UTC NZD Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.5% vs 5.6% prior, released alongside Employment Change (f/c 0.4%). It is the key test for the roughly 90% priced December RBNZ hike, with NZDUSD and AUDNZD exposed.
• 13:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change Forecast 65K vs 90K prior; it is the main labour signal in the calendar (Payrolls is flagged for later in the week but not scheduled here), with USD and metals exposed.
• 15:00 UTC USD ISM Services PMI Forecast 54.8 vs 54.9 prior; a firm print would back the strong-growth, hike-pricing story that has weighed on gold and silver.

Into Monday, watch Iran's reply to the Qatari draft and Sunday's OPEC+ meeting for oil, then ISM Prices Paid (f/c 77.5) as the first read on whether Fed hike pricing rebuilds behind this week's metals flush.