Downtrend intact with lower highs since the early-month 0.7200 peak. Price consolidated in a 0.7040-0.7090 range for several sessions before slicing lower on the hawkish FOMC dot-plot lift, the final bar tagging 0.6995 and closing back near the 0.7000 psych magnet. Both EMAs sit overhead and ATR is expanding, consistent with the breakdown rather than compression.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.70879
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.7000 psych opens the path toward 0.6890
Reclaim of 0.70879 recent high needed to challenge the lower-high structure
AU PMIs (Jun 22) then Trimmed Mean CPI (Jun 24) are the next domestic catalysts
AUDUSD remains in a sequence of lower highs since the 0.7200 peak, and the latest H4 bar sliced through the 0.7065-0.7088 consolidation floor after the hawkish FOMC surprise lifted the dots and bid the USD. Price closed near 0.7011 having tagged 0.6995, with the 0.7000 psychological magnet now the immediate reference. Both EMAs cap from above and ATR has re-expanded on the break, consistent with downside continuation pressure.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7140
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.7000 opens the undershoot toward the 0.69787 swing low
Reclaim of 0.7140 needed to negate the lower-highs structure
US Jobless Claims/Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend the USD bid
Clear lower-high, lower-low structure since the early-window 0.7200 area, with the slide bottoming at the 0.69787 swing low before recovering to consolidate just above the 0.7050 pivot. ATR(14) has compressed sharply into a tight 0.7050-0.7088 range, consistent with the soft post-RBA hawkish-hold tone leaving AUD pinned. With FOMC today the catalyst, the 0.7000 psych level below and the 0.7088 range high frame the next directional test.
Support: 0.7050, 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7140
What it said to watch
FOMC today is the immediate driver and could break the consolidation either way
H4 close below 0.7050 pivot opens the path to 0.7000 psych and the 0.69787 swing low
Reclaim of 0.7088 range high then 0.7140 50-dma needed to negate the lower-highs structure
Lower highs/lows, consolidating above 0.7000 after bounce.
Lower-high, lower-low structure has dominated since the early-window peak near 0.7200, with price grinding down to a double-bottom around 0.6980. The Aussie has since recovered above its EMA20/EMA50 and is consolidating in a 0.7050-0.7088 band, the soft post-RBA hold capping rallies. FOMC today is the dominant driver and can dictate whether the 0.7050 pivot holds or 0.7088 gives way.
Support: 0.7050, 0.7000, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7140
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today (18:00 UTC) likely to set the next directional leg
Loss of 0.7050 pivot reopens the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.6979 swing low
H4 close above 0.7088 prior high would challenge the lower-highs structure toward 0.7140 range cap
AUDUSD remains in a multi-week downtrend off the 0.7200 high, but carved a double-bottom base near 0.6980 and recovered to the 38.2% retracement around 0.7063 — partly a relief from the China retail miss and RBA hold being faded. Price is now consolidating between the 0.7042 pivot floor and the 0.7088 lower high, pinned around EMA20/50 with ATR(14) compressing. The advance is stalling beneath the descending sequence of lower highs that still caps at 0.7140.
Support: 0.7042, 0.7000, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7140
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above 0.7088 challenges the lower-high sequence
AUDUSD rolled over from the 0.7200 early-period high through a sequence of lower highs into the 0.6979 swing low, pressured this week by weak China retail sales and the underwhelming RBA hold. Price has since recovered into a tight 0.7042-0.7088 range and ATR(14) is compressing, with the pair sitting just below EMA20 and above EMA50. The 0.7000 round number and 0.7140 50-DMA cap define the wider structure.
Support: 0.7042, 0.7000, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7140
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today is the immediate swing factor for this read
H4 close below 0.7042 pivot floor opens 0.7000 and the 0.6979 swing low
H4 close above 0.7088 range high challenges the 0.7140 50-dma cap
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing after bounce · RSI 53 · price 0.70628
Consolidating above 0.7000 post double bottom.
Multi-week downtrend from 0.7200 stalled into a double bottom around 0.6979, and price has since recovered to consolidate near the 38.2% retracement at 0.7063. Rallies have been capped below the 0.7088 recent high while the rising-lows sequence off the bottom holds; ATR has compressed sharply since the early-month sell-off. FOMC and the soft China retail print keep the Aussie pinned in a 0.7042-0.7088 band into the decision.
Support: 0.7042, 0.7000, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7140
What it said to watch
FOMC today is the swing factor and could materially shift this read
Close above 0.7088 opens the path to the 0.7140 50-dma
Loss of 0.7000 reopens the 0.6890 downside objective
AUDUSD carved a lower-high structure through the window, sliding from 0.7200 to a 0.6979 swing low before a double-bottom bounce stalled near the 0.7088 range high. Price is now consolidating in a 0.7042-0.7088 band beneath the EMAs, with soft US data and a looming FOMC keeping the Aussie pinned around the 0.7000 psych area. ATR(14) has eased as the range tightens after the early-month sell-off.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69787, 0.7042
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7088 range high reopens the path toward the 0.7140 50-dma
Loss of 0.7000 psych exposes the 0.6979 swing low and 0.6890 beneath
FOMC decision today is the swing factor for this read
AUDUSD remains in a lower-high downtrend off the 0.7200 area, printing a swing low at 0.6979 before a recovery that has stalled below the 0.7088 swing high. Price is now churning in a tight 0.7042-0.7088 range as the soft China retail sales miss capped the proxy currency and traders await the Fed. ATR has compressed off the early-month expansion, with momentum flat around the midline.
Support: 0.7042, 0.7000, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7100, 0.7140
What it said to watch
Wednesday's Fed decision is the dominant near-term driver and could reshape this read
H4 close above 0.7088 then 0.7100 psych cap neutralizes the lower-highs structure
Failure to hold the 0.7042 range floor reopens 0.7000 round and the 0.6979 swing low
Lower highs intact; double bottom near 0.6980 sparked recovery into 0.7040-0.7090 range.
AUDUSD remains in a broader downtrend of lower highs since the early-month 0.7200 peak, but a double bottom around 0.6980 has driven a corrective bounce that stalled at the 0.7088 range high. The hawkish RBA hold was faded on weak China data, leaving price churning in a 0.7040-0.7090 band and now easing back toward the floor. ATR(14) sits in a mid-range regime with no breakout impulse yet.
Support: 0.70405, 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7140
What it said to watch
Wednesday's Fed decision is the dominant driver and could materially shift this read
H4 close above 0.7090 range high, then 0.7140 pivot, would neutralize the lower-highs structure
Failure to hold 0.7042 range low reopens 0.7000 and the 0.6980 double-bottom area
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 54 · price 0.70643
Lower highs into 0.700 base, consolidating.
H4 remains in a lower-high, lower-low downtrend from the 0.7200 area, but the slide stalled into a twin base around 0.6979-0.700 and price has recovered to consolidate near 0.7064. The bounce reclaimed EMA20 yet stalls below EMA50, leaving 0.7088-0.7140 as the supply band to clear; the soft RBA hold and weak China prints keep the broader downside read intact. ATR is mid-range, neither compressing nor extending sharply.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.70879, 0.7140, 0.71898
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7088 opens the path back toward the 0.7140 50-dma
Loss of 0.7000 confirms a fresh lower-low toward 0.6979 and below
FOMC decision this week is the dominant USD catalyst and could reset this read
AUDUSD has carved lower highs and lower lows since the early-month roll-over from 0.7200, with the soft China prints and a faded RBA hold keeping the bias heavy. Demand stepped in twice around 0.6979, fuelling a bounce that swept to a 0.7088 week high before stalling and consolidating near 0.7060. ATR has compressed as price coils between 0.7000 and 0.7088 ahead of the Fed.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7140
What it said to watch
Close above 0.7140 would negate the lower-highs structure
Failure to hold 0.7000 confirms continuation toward the 0.6979 swing low
FOMC decision (Warsh debut) later today could materially shift this read