Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break.
AUDUSD has carved a steady sequence of lower highs since Tuesday's hot US CPI broke the pair below 0.6900, with yield-driven USD strength extending the slide. Friday's brief post-PPI pop to 0.6803 faded during NY hours, and price has since been pinned just above a fresh week low at 0.6769, below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6788 and EMA(50) at 0.6809. RSI(14) at 31.9 is holding above Friday's 29.7 trough despite the marginal new low, while ATR has eased from 10.9 to 9.2 pips as the move compresses.
Support: 0.67691, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.67876, 0.6800, 0.68089
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6800 psych level and the lower-highs trendline would break the week's sequence of lower highs; the 38.2% fib of the week's decline sits near 0.6830
Sustained trade below the 0.6769 week low exposes the 0.6750 round number
Price reclaiming EMA(20) at 0.6788 would be the first sign the downtrend is pausing
Fed's Jefferson in under an hour, then Warsh on Mon and Bullock/RBA minutes Tue 00:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Stepped lower-high/lower-low sequence below a falling trendline.
The week's dominant move came in Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI print broke the pair from 0.6930 toward 0.6843. Every bounce since has capped beneath a falling lower-high trendline, and London and NY sessions have each extended the lower-low sequence down to the week low at 0.6769. Friday's PPI spike to 0.6803 was rejected below the psych 0.6800 handle. Price is holding below both a declining EMA(20) at 0.6788 and EMA(50) at 0.6809. RSI(14) has spent the past day pinned at 30–39 without reaching oversold, and ATR is easing back to 9.2 pips after the PPI expansion.
Support: 0.67691, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.67876, 0.6800, 0.68089
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.6788 would be the first break of the pullback-capping pattern
Reclaim of psych 0.6800 and the ema50 near 0.6809 would breach the lower-high trendline and challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6769 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6750 round number
Fed's Jefferson in ~90 min, plus Warsh on Monday and RBA's Bullock and minutes on Tuesday, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs every session since Tuesday's hot US CPI broke 0.6900 in the NY session. A stronger USD on Fed hike repricing has kept price below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6789 and EMA(50) at 0.6810. Friday's NY spike to 0.6803 on the soft PPI was rejected below the 0.6800 psych handle, and price is now pressing the week low near 0.6769, with RSI(14) pinned in a 30–39 band and ATR easing to 9.4 pips.
Support: 0.67691, 0.6750, 0.6668
Resistance: 0.67891, 0.6800, 0.68104
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6800 psych level and the lower-highs trendline (~0.6793) breaks the week's lower-high sequence; ema50 at 0.6810 sits just above
Failure to hold the week low at 0.6769 extends the downtrend toward the 0.6750 round number, with the 0.6668 news target the next reference
RSI(14) under 30 without a fresh price low would mark the first momentum divergence of the week
Fed's Jefferson in ~2h, Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC and Bullock/RBA minutes Tue 00:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break; price below EMA(20) and EMA(50).
AUD/USD has fallen from 0.6930 since Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI print broke the pair through 0.6900. Each rebound since has stalled at a lower high: Wednesday's Asia peak near 0.6885, Friday's Asia high near 0.6815, then the PPI spike to 0.6803, which faded straight back under the falling EMA(20) and the 0.6800 round number. The week low at 0.6772 printed in NY hours with RSI(14) at 29.7, against 26.7 at Friday's early low, a modest bullish divergence. ATR is easing off its 10.9-pip peak as price drifts above the low.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.67905, 0.6800, 0.68118
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6800 round number and the EMA(50) near 0.6812 would break the lower-high sequence and the descending lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6772 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6750 psych level
RSI(14) divergence negates if a new low below 0.6772 comes with RSI under 29.7
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, then Chair Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
RBA's Bullock and the minutes (Tue 00:00–00:30 UTC) are the AUD-side risk to the 0.6800 cap
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break, capped by EMA(20).
The pair has carved lower highs since Tuesday's hot US CPI broke it below 0.6900, and every bounce has stalled at a falling EMA(20). The NY session drove the main legs: Thursday through the 0.68 pivot and Friday after a mixed PPI to a 0.6772 week low, with ATR(14) widening to 10.2 pips. RSI(14) is pinned in the low 30s, but its higher low at the 0.6772 week low against the earlier 0.6797 low is a mild divergence.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.67921, 0.6800, 0.68133
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.68 pivot and the lower-highs line would break this week's descending sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6772 week low leaves the 0.6750 round number as the next reference
EMA(20) at 0.6792 has capped Friday's rebounds; ema50 at 0.6813 is the higher reference above
Fed Chair Warsh speech Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read, then RBA minutes and Bullock Tue 00:00 GMT
Stair-step lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break.
The hot US CPI print broke AUDUSD out of the 0.69 area in Tuesday's NY session. Every bounce since has capped lower, from 0.6885 to 0.6836 to 0.6815, then to the 0.6803 ppi high, which was rejected in the first hour of NY today ahead of a fresh week low at 0.6772. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6794 and EMA(50) at 0.6815 with ATR expanding to about 10 pips, though RSI(14) at 31.9 is holding above Friday's Asia-session 26.7 trough despite the lower price low, a modest divergence.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6700
Resistance: 0.67936, 0.68031, 0.68147
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6803 ppi high and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 0.6772 week low extends the lower-low structure toward the 0.6700 round number
Sustained trade back above ema20 and ema50 would signal the downtrend losing momentum
Fed's Jefferson speaks in about 6h; Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC and Bullock/RBA minutes on Tuesday 00:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break.
Five-day slide from Monday's 0.6930 high, with the dominant legs coming in the NY session: Tuesday's hot US CPI break, then today's fade from the post-PPI spike at 0.6803 to a fresh week low at 0.6772 as Fed-hike repricing kept USD bid. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6795 and EMA(50) at 0.6816, and lower highs are intact along the descending trendline from Wednesday's 0.6885, with ATR(14) expanding to 10.7 pips. RSI(14) at 29.7 is oversold but holding above Friday Asia's 26.7 trough, a mild bullish divergence against the lower price low.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.67954, 0.6800, 0.68163
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.6795 and the 0.6800 psych level would break the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the ema50 at 0.6816 toward the 38.2% fib of the week slide near 0.6832 would mark a deeper correction
Failure to hold the 0.6772 week low extends the downtrend toward the 0.6750 round number
Bullish RSI divergence is void if RSI prints below 26.7 on a new price low
Fed's Jefferson (Sat 00:00 UTC) and Warsh (Mon 17:00 UTC) could materially shift USD pricing into the new week
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break, price below both EMAs.
AUDUSD has printed a clean run of lower highs since the hot US CPI print broke 0.6900 on Tuesday. Price is closing below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), and each bounce has stalled near EMA(20). The headline-soft PPI spike in early NY hours met rejection at the 0.6803 ppi high, just above the 0.6800 handle, and the next bar pushed to a fresh week low at 0.6773 as ATR(14) expanded to 10.9 pips. RSI(14) at 30.9 is holding above Thursday's 26.7 trough despite the lower price, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 0.67728, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.67977, 0.68031, 0.6818
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6803 ppi high and ema20 would break the lower-highs sequence from Wednesday
Failure to hold the 0.6773 week low exposes the 0.6750 psych level
Recovery to ema50 at 0.6818 and the 38.2% retrace of the week drop near 0.6833 would test the downtrend read
Fed's Daly in ~1h and Warsh on Monday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break, capped by EMA(20).
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's hot US CPI triggered the sell-off from 0.6930. Each bounce has been capped along the lower-highs line from Wednesday's 0.6885 high. The slightly soft PPI spiked price to the 0.6803 ppi high in the first hour of NY, but it was rejected back under the ema20 at 0.6800, leaving the pair below both EMAs just above the 0.6781 week low. RSI(14) held near 31 on Friday's lower low versus 25 on Thursday's, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR expands to 10.2 pips.
Support: 0.67813
Resistance: 0.67998, 0.68031, 0.68146
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6803 ppi high and the ema20 breaks the lower-highs line and the rejection read
Loss of the 0.6781 week low resumes the lower-low sequence and voids the RSI divergence
Friday's asia high at 0.6815 is the next cap if the ema20 gives way
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Stair-step lower highs from Wednesday's 0.6885 high; week low 0.6781 set in London.
AUD/USD has shed roughly 150 pips from Monday's 0.6930 high. The hot US CPI drove a NY-session breakdown on Tuesday, and each bounce since has stalled at a lower high, with price below both a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50). The PPI-bar spike to 0.6803 was rejected at EMA(20) and the 0.6800 handle, closing back near 0.6792. Friday's London push to a 0.6781 week low came with RSI(14) holding near 30 against Thursday's 23.7 trough, a mild bullish divergence as ATR(14) expands to 9.9 pips.
Support: 0.67813, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.68006, 0.68146, 0.68208
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6800 handle and ema20 breaks the lower-highs trendline from Wednesday
Recovery through the 0.6815 lower high and the 0.6821 ema50 reopens the 38.2% fib near 0.6838
Failure to hold the 0.6781 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6750 psych level
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) remarks today could materially shift this read
RBA minutes and Bullock on Tuesday are the next AUD-side risk
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break, below both EMAs.
AUDUSD has printed a steady run of lower highs since the hot US CPI broke 0.6900 in Tuesday's NY session. The pair is down about 150 pips from Monday's 0.6931 high to a fresh week low at 0.6781 into the London-NY transition, as the Fed-hike repricing lifted the USD. Price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The lower-highs trendline and EMA(20) converge near 0.6800, and Friday's Asia session bounce stalled at the 0.6815 lower high, just under EMA(20). RSI(14) at 31.1 is holding above Thursday's sub-25 readings despite the lower low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR has compressed to around 9 pips.
Support: 0.6781, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.6802, 0.6815, 0.6822
What it said to watch
US Oct PPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.3%) is under 30 minutes away and could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 0.6815 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline. Clearing ema50 at 0.6822 then exposes the 38.2% week high-low fib near 0.6838 and the 0.6840-0.6850 breakdown zone
Failure to hold the 0.6781 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6750 round number
Rejection at ema20 / the 0.6800 handle keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) later in the NY session could add to post-PPI volatility
Lower highs since Tuesday, compressing at week low.
Hot US CPI at Tuesday's NY open broke the pair off the 0.6930 highs. Since then every bounce has formed a lower high, and Thursday's NY session took price through the 0.6800 psych level. Friday's Asian high at 0.6815 faded below the descending trendline, and London set a new week low at 0.6784. Price is still below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6803 and EMA(50) at 0.6824. RSI(14) held at 30 on that new low against 24 on Thursday's low, a bullish RSI divergence, while ATR compresses toward 8.7 pips.
Support: 0.67867, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68034, 0.68146
What it said to watch
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 0.6800 psych and the 0.6803 ema20 tests the lower-high sequence
Close above the 0.6815 asian high breaks the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6787 session low and 0.6784 week low confirms another lower low and voids the RSI divergence
Fib 38.2% of the week's decline sits near 0.6840 if a bounce extends
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday, capped by a falling ema20.
Tuesday's hot US CPI broke the pair down from Monday's 0.6930 high in the NY session. Since Wednesday's 0.6885 high it has printed a run of lower highs, with price below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50) as the dollar holds near 19-month highs. Friday's Asian bounce stalled at 0.6815, just under the ema20, and the London open set a fresh week low at 0.6784. RSI(14) at 30.1 made a higher low against that lower price low, a bullish divergence, while ATR has compressed from 10.3 to 8.7 pips.
Support: 0.67838
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68042, 0.68146
What it said to watch
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 0.6800 pivot and the lower-highs trendline would break the descending sequence
Reclaiming the 0.6815 lower high opens a retracement toward the 38.2% fib near 0.6822
H1 close below the 0.6784 week low extends the lower-low sequence and leaves the divergence unconfirmed
Lower highs from 0.6885, compressing above week low.
The hot US CPI broke AUD/USD from the 0.6900s during Tuesday's NY session, and every bounce since has printed a lower high, from 0.6885 to 0.6836 to 0.68146. Thursday's NY selling took out the 0.6800 psych level and the London open set a week low at 0.67838. Price sits below the ema20 at 0.68058 and the EMA(50) at 0.68261, both still sloping lower, but RSI(14) printed 30.1 on that low against 23.7 into Thursday's NY close, a bullish divergence, while ATR has eased from 10.3 to 8.6 pips.
Support: 0.67838, 0.6668
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68058, 0.68146
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6800 psych and the ema20 at 0.68058 tests the lower-highs trendline near the 0.68146 lower high
A break of the 0.68146 lower high ends the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 38.2% retrace of the week's drop near 0.6840
Failure to hold the 0.67838 week low voids the RSI divergence and leaves the 0.6668 dn target flagged in the macro digest as the next reference
US Oct PPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.3%) could materially shift this read, with Bowman and Daly following in NY hours
Lower highs since Tuesday's CPI drop, compressing under ema20.
The week high at 0.6931 printed Monday evening. The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday broke the pair through 0.6900, and the NY session has driven each leg lower since, with lower highs stepping down along the falling trendline and the Asia high at 0.6815 capped at the ema20. Today's early-European push set a week low at 0.6784 with RSI(14) at 30, a higher low than Thursday's 24-27 reading; the bullish divergence comes with ATR easing toward 9 pips as price holds just under the 0.6800 psych level.
Support: 0.67838, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68069, 0.68146
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Bowman and Daly follow later in the NY session
H1 close back above the psych 0.6800 and the ema20 near 0.6807 would break the lower-high sequence along the trendline
A move through the 0.6815 Asia high would put the 38.2% retracement of the week drop near 0.6840 in play
Failure to hold the 0.6784 week low cancels the RSI divergence and exposes the 0.6750 psych level
Lower highs along a falling trendline; fresh week low at 0.6784.
AUDUSD has fully unwound Monday's push to 0.6930. Tuesday's hot US CPI broke the pair below 0.6900, and every rebound since has been capped by a falling lower-high trendline, with Friday's Asia bounce stalling at 0.6815 near the EMA(20). Thursday's NY session took out the 0.6800 round number and early Europe today printed a week low at 0.6784. RSI(14) at 30.1 holds above Thursday's sub-25 trough, a bullish divergence, while ATR stays compressed near 9 pips and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 0.67838
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68081, 0.68146
What it said to watch
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 0.6800 round number and the ema20 at 0.6808 would challenge the downtrend read
Break of the 0.6815 lower high clears the trendline and opens the 38.2% fib near 0.6840
Failure to hold the 0.6784 week low extends the lower-low sequence and would undercut the RSI divergence
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break.
AUDUSD rolled over from the 0.6930 area when the hot US CPI hit at Tuesday's NY open. It has carved lower highs since, with Thursday's NY session pressing to 0.6798 and late Asia on Friday extending to a week low at 0.6784, below the 0.6800 psych handle. Price sits below a falling ema20 and EMA(50), and the Asia bounce stalled at the 0.6815 lower high just under ema20. RSI(14) printed 30.3 at the new low against mid-20s on Thursday, a bullish divergence, while ATR compresses to 8.9 pips.
Support: 0.67838, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68098, 0.68146
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read; a hot core print against the 0.3% forecast would revive 50bp Fed talk
An H1 close back above the 0.6800 psych handle would put ema20 at 0.6810 and the lower-highs line near 0.6806 under test
A break of the 0.6815 lower high would open the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop near 0.6840, the former support zone
Failure to hold the 0.6784 week low confirms another lower low, with the 0.6750 round number next below
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI drop; 0.6800 broken.
Tuesday's hotter US CPI (core +0.3% MoM) knocked AUDUSD from 0.6930 through 0.6900 in NY hours. Every bounce since has printed a lower high under a falling trendline, and Thursday's NY session slide broke the 0.6800 psych level. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50); Friday's Asia session bounce was rejected at ema20 near 0.6815 before a fresh week low at 0.6792, where RSI(14) at 32 holds well above Thursday's 23.7 trough, a bullish divergence, as ATR compresses to 8.6 pips.
Support: 0.67922
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68116, 0.68359
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 0.6800 psych level would turn Thursday's break into a false break
Close above ema20 at 0.6812 and the lower highs trendline challenges the sequence; 0.6836 lower high is the next structural cap
Extension below the 0.6792 week low continues the lower-low sequence and tests the bullish RSI divergence
Lower highs since Tuesday's CPI break; basing above 0.6800.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's hot US CPI knocked it off the 0.6930 area during the first hour of NY. Thursday's London and NY legs then extended the slide to the 0.6797 week low as Fed-RBA divergence weighed. Friday's Asia bounce met rejection at the ema20 near 0.6813, and price is back below both EMAs. RSI(14) at 35.9 has lifted from 23.7, leaving a mild bullish divergence on the marginal new low, while ATR compressing to 8.5 pips shows the move stalling above the 0.6800 psych level.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68132, 0.68331, 0.68507
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6800 psych level and the 0.6797 week low extends the lower-low sequence
An H1 close above the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline near 0.6815 would challenge the downtrend read, with the ema50 at 0.6833 next
Recovery through the 0.6850 lower high and the CPI drop fib 38.2% would shift structure toward a range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's CPI break, basing above 0.6800.
AUDUSD has printed a string of lower highs since the hot US CPI print broke 0.6900 in Tuesday's NY session, and Thursday's London-NY leg extended the drop to a week low of 0.67966, just under the 0.6800 psych level. Price holds below a falling ema20 (0.68143) and ema50 (0.68343), and the Friday Asia bounce stalled right at the ema20. RSI(14) has recovered from 23.7 to 39 with a higher low against a marginally lower price low, a bullish divergence, while ATR compresses to 8.5 pips.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68143, 0.68343
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 0.68143 and the lower-highs trendline would break this week's sequence
Acceptance below the 0.6800 psych level and the 0.67966 week low confirms a fresh lower low and voids the divergence
Recovery through the ema50 at 0.68343 would put the 38.2% fib of the CPI-week drop near 0.6848 in play
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; week low swept in Asia.
The hot US CPI broke AUDUSD out of its 0.6900s range in Tuesday's NY session. Since then the pair has printed lower highs from Wednesday's 0.6885 lower high, and hawkish Fed commentary dragged it to 0.6797 in Thursday NY hours. Asia briefly swept that week low before buyers stepped back in above the 0.6800 psych handle. Price at 0.6811 now sits just under the ema20 (0.6815) and the lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) lifting to 41.7 from a 23.7 trough and ATR easing to 8.7 pips.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.6815, 0.68354, 0.6885
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 0.6815 and the lower-high trendline would break this week's descending sequence; ema50 near 0.6835 is the next cap
Failure to hold the 0.6800 psych level and the 0.6797 week low confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 0.6848 (38.2% of the week drop fib) needed before the 0.6885 lower high comes back into view
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today, followed by Bowman and Daly during NY hours, could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off lows · RSI 42 · price 0.68116
Lower highs since Wednesday; 0.6800 briefly broken then reclaimed.
AUDUSD has given back all of Monday's rally to the 0.6930 week high. Tuesday's US CPI beat drove the breakdown during NY hours, and a second NY-session leg on Thursday took price to the 0.6800 round number as Fed-RBA divergence widened. An Asia-session dip to a 0.6797 week low was rejected, and RSI(14) has lifted to 42 after a mild bullish divergence off the 24 trough. Price still sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6815, which lines up with the lower-high trendline, while EMA(50) at 0.6836 and the 38.2% fib at 0.6848 sit above as the next caps.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68154, 0.68364, 0.68477
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6816 (ema20 and lower-high trendline) breaks the lower-high sequence in place since Wednesday
Acceptance back below the 0.6800 round number and a break of the 0.6797 week low resumes the downtrend
Above the ema50 at 0.6836, the 38.2% fib at 0.6848 is the next structural cap from the week high-low fib
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, tight base just above 0.6800.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.6930 late-NY peak. Tuesday's hot US CPI broke the pair below 0.6900 at the NY open, and Thursday's London and NY sessions extended the weekly decline to a week low at 0.6797 as hawkish Fedspeak kept the USD near 19-month highs. Price sits below EMA(20) at 0.6816 and EMA(50) at 0.6837, with RSI(14) oversold at 26.7 and ATR easing from 10.3 to 8.4 pips while the Asia session holds a narrow range just above the 0.6800 psych level.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68158, 0.68359, 0.68433
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6797 week low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the 0.6800 psych level
A close back above the ema20 at 0.6816 opens a test of Thursday's 0.6836 lower high and the lower highs trendline from Monday
The 0.6843 breakdown zone (Tue/Wed lows) aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the weekly decline; acceptance above it would break the lower-high rhythm
RSI holding above its 23.7 trough on a fresh price low would mark bullish divergence
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%), followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's 0.6930 double top; tight base above 0.6800.
Tuesday's hot US CPI broke the 0.6930 double top in the NY session. Price has since printed a run of lower highs, and Thursday's NY session reached a week low at 0.67975 as the USD held 19-month highs. Price is now compressing just above the 0.6800 psych level, below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6818 that capped Thursday's London bounce at the 0.6836 lower high, while RSI(14) has lifted to 31 from a 24 low and ATR has eased to 8.3 pips.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68176, 0.68359, 0.6885
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.6800 psych and the 0.67975 week low extends the lower-high sequence
A close back above the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline near 0.6815 would be the first break in the decline; the 0.6836 lower high is the next test
A recovery to the 38.2% retracement of the week decline near 0.6848 would bring the 0.6885 Wed high back into view
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read