Price rolled over from the 0.7277 swing high earlier in the window and printed a sequence of lower highs into the 0.7079 range low. The last week has stabilised into a tight basing pattern between 0.7104 swing low and 0.7181 recent high, with the AUD lifted on risk-on flows after US-Iran ceasefire reports. RSI sits mid-range and EMA50 caps overhead near 0.7207, keeping the broader corrective read intact.
Support: 0.7104, 0.7079
Resistance: 0.71815, 0.7207, 0.7277
What it said to watch
H4 close above EMA50 at 0.7207 would neutralise the downtrend read
Loss of 0.7079 range low extends the lower-high sequence
Tokyo CPI in Asia session could shift AUD risk tone
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, attempting to stabilise · RSI 47 · price 0.71577
Lower highs since 0.7277, basing near 0.7100.
AUDUSD has been in a stepped downtrend from 0.7277, printing successive lower highs into the 0.7080 area where buyers stepped in twice to form a tentative double bottom near 0.7100. Price has reclaimed EMA20 but the EMA50 around 0.7205 still caps, leaving the move look corrective rather than structural. ATR(14) around 21 pips signals contained range conditions as the market digests this week's hawkish Musalem commentary.
Support: 0.7104, 0.70792
Resistance: 0.71815, 0.7205, 0.7277
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7205 ema50 would neutralise the downtrend read
Loss of 0.7100 swing low reopens the 0.7079 range low
Further Fed hawkish rhetoric could re-pressure the recent high at 0.7181
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, attempting to stabilise · RSI 41 · price 0.71179
Lower highs since 0.7277, basing near 0.7100.
AUDUSD has been carving lower highs since the 0.7277 peak in early-month, with sellers stepping in repeatedly around the 0.7227 lower high and price now basing above the 0.7100 swing low. The recent attempt to reclaim the EMA20 near 0.7155 was rejected, and ATR(14) has compressed into the low-20s pip range, pointing to coiling rather than directional follow-through. Price action remains pinned between the 0.7100 floor and the 0.7182 swing high, with broader bias still skewed lower while both EMAs cap from above.
Support: 0.7100, 0.70792, 0.70864
Resistance: 0.7155, 0.7182, 0.7227
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.7100 swing low would confirm continuation of the downtrend
Reclaim of 0.7182 swing high would neutralise the lower-high structure
US core PCE print today could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.7277 peak, testing range floor.
AUDUSD rolled over from the 0.7277 peak into a lower-high sequence, with the recent bounce to 0.7182 failing under the EMA50 around 0.7220. Price has slipped back to retest the 0.7100 psych level and the 0.70792 swing low, consistent with a head and shoulders form noted in market commentary. Risk-off flows from Mideast escalation are weighing on the Aussie, keeping pressure on the range floor.
Support: 0.7100, 0.70792, 0.70864
Resistance: 0.7182, 0.7220, 0.7277
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close below 0.70792 swing low confirms a lower-low extension
Reclaim of 0.71820 swing high neutralises the head and shoulders read
Further escalation around Hormuz could amplify risk-off pressure on AUD
Rolling over from 0.7277 high, pressing range lows.
Price has rolled over from the 0.7277 range top earlier in the month, printing successive lower highs and now pressing back toward the 0.7086 swing low. The current bar's rejection from 0.7143 back to 0.7099 reasserts the bearish lean, with EMA20 and EMA50 both capping rallies near 0.7180-0.7208. ATR is steady around 22 pips, so the range is intact rather than breaking.
Support: 0.70864, 0.70792, 0.7116
Resistance: 0.71815, 0.72077, 0.72772
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.7079 swing low confirms continuation lower
Reclaim of 0.7181 swing high needed to neutralise the lower-high sequence
Mideast headlines (IRGC response) could inject risk-off volatility
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, base attempt · RSI 44 · price 0.71311
Lower highs since 0.7277, basing near 0.7100.
AUDUSD has rolled over from the 0.7277 month high, printing a clean sequence of lower highs into a base around 0.7100. A double bottom near 0.7080–0.7090 has held and price has recovered into the 0.7160–0.7180 swing high zone, but rallies remain capped below EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) at ~21 pips shows compression after the early-May flush, leaving the pair coiled between the 0.7100 floor and 0.7180 swing high.
Support: 0.7114, 0.7079, 0.7086
Resistance: 0.7182, 0.7227, 0.7277
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7182 swing high opens path back to the 0.7227 ema50
Break of 0.7079 range low confirms continuation of the downtrend
Fed speakers (Jefferson, Lane, Greene) in Tokyo today could shift USD tone
Failure to reclaim EMA20 keeps the lower-high structure intact