BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 1 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, now consolidating · RSI 51 · price 84,719.70
Post-NY range 84,395–84,780 below 85,200 day high.
London swept below the Asian range to 83,131. NY then broke the 84,319 Asian high and ran to an 85,200 day high, with BTC tracking the Treasury rally despite hot ISM prices paid. Since the NY fade, price has held a 84,395–84,780 consolidation at the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and a partly filled late gap at 84,470–84,620.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,780 range top reopens the 85,000 psych level and the 85,200 day high
Failure to hold the 84,534 range low exposes the 84,395 swing low, near the 38.2% fib at 84,410
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, now consolidating · RSI 47 · price 84,627.80
Tight post-rally range below session high, holding above fib 38.2%.
The NY session rally from 83,395, alongside the Treasury bid, cleared the Asian range high and ran to an 85,200 session high. Price then faded to an 84,404 swing low near the fib 38.2%. Since the 22:00 UTC gap, early Asia has been boxed between 84,530 and the 84,703 range top, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,703 range top reopens 85,000 psych and the 85,200 session high
Failure to hold the 84,404 swing low exposes the fib 50% at 84,298
US NFP in ~13h (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
84,395–84,700 consolidation below NY session high.
The NY session rally from 83,395 to an 85,200 session high, tracking the Treasury bid into Q4, was rejected above the 85,000 psych level. Price has since compressed in an 84,395–84,700 range, sitting near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib into early Asia, with RSI(14) flat near 47.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84,395 swing low exposes the 50% fib at ~84,300 and the 84,000 psych level
Close above the 84,700 range top reopens the 85,000 psych area and the 85,200 session high
US NFP/AHE Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs under 85,200; pullback holding the 38.2–50% retrace.
The NY session broke the Asian high at 84,319 on the Treasury-rally bid and ran to a session high at 85,200, where it was rejected. Price has since consolidated under a lower-highs line. The swing low at 84,395 sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the NY rally. RSI(14) at 54 is neutral, and a small gap up at 22:00 UTC left price just under that line.
What it said to watch
A close above the 84,780 lower high and the lower-highs line reopens the 85,200 session high
Failure to hold the 84,395 swing low exposes the asian high at 84,319 near the 50% fib
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read via yields
22:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, now pausing below day high · RSI 51 · price 84,580.85
Higher lows from London low; tight range 84,395–84,780 after 85,200 rejection.
London dipped below the Asian range low to 83,131 and reclaimed it. NY then broke the asian high at 84,319 and ran to an 85,200 day high on the Treasury-rally tailwind before a rejection. Price has since compressed between the 84,395 range low and the 84,780 range top into the Asia handover, holding near the 38.2% fib of the 83,395–85,200 leg with RSI(14) neutral around 51.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84,395 range low puts the asian high at 84,319 and the 50% fib near 84,298 in focus
Close above the 84,780 range top reopens a test of the 85,200 day high
A break of the rising lows trendline from the London low would end the higher-low sequence
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 46 · price 84,593.84
Post-rally pullback, lower highs under 85,200.
The NY session rallied from 83,395 to an 85,200 session high, with BTC shrugging off the hot ISM prices-paid print, but price stalled at the 85k cap. The pullback since has printed a lower high at 84,780 and held the 84,395 swing low between the 38.2% and 50% of the NY rally fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 46 as price drifts sideways after NY close, holding above a small rollover gap.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84,395 swing low opens the 50% retrace near 84,300 and the 84,107 higher low
Recovery above the 84,780 lower high puts the 85k cap and 85,200 session high back in focus
Unfilled gap 84,470–84,620 sits just under price
US jobs report Fri 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read; a hot print threatens the 83,400 range floor
22:18 UTC
Pullback after NY rally, momentum neutral · RSI 48 · price 84,630.80
Lower highs from 85,200 NY high, holding above 84,395 late NY low.
BTC shrugged off the hot ISM prices-paid print and rallied through the NY session from 83,395 to an 85,200 NY high. Price was rejected after a false break of the 85,000 round number, then slid in lower highs to an 84,395 late NY low near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib. The early Asia session bounce to 84,630 sits just above EMA20 but under the 84,780 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,780 lower high reopens the 85,000 round number and the 85,200 NY high
Loss of the 84,395 late NY low exposes the 84,000 round number and the 50–61.8% zone of the NY rally fib
83,400 range floor (13:00 UTC swing low) is the base of the day's range
US jobs report Fri 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
22:05 UTC
Pullback after NY rally, momentum fading · RSI 37 · price 84,410.04
Lower highs from 85,200 false break; 84,480 shelf broken late NY.
The NY-session rally off 83,395 shrugged off the hot ISM prices-paid print and ran to an 85,200 session high, but the push through 85K was rejected and a lower-high trendline has capped price since. The 84,480 broken shelf gave way after NY close, leaving price between the 38.2% and fib 50% retracement of the rally, with RSI(14) near 37.
What it said to watch
M15 close below 84,300 (fib 50%) exposes the 84,107 swing low near the 61.8% retracement
Reclaim of the 84,480 broken shelf and the lower-high trendline would turn the read back to a range
Acceptance above the 84,780 lower high and the 85,200 session high reverses the false break
Loss of 84,107 brings the 83,807 double low from NY hours into play
US NFP and AHE Fri 12:30 UTC (~14.5h) could materially shift this read
The NY session rally off 83,395 stalled at the 85,200 session high, with supply capping it near $85K into NFP. Since then the chart has printed a lower high at 84,780 (swing high) and another at 84,595. Price has now slipped below the 84,480 shelf to a 84,395 pullback low, sitting under EMA20 and between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the NY leg, with RSI(14) near 37.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 84,595 lower high negates the post-rejection lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 84,395 pullback low exposes the asian high at 84,319 and the 50% fib near 84,298
Below that, the 84,107 swing low aligns with the 61.8% fib of the NY leg
Reclaim of the 84,780 swing high reopens a test of the 85,200 session high
NFP/AHE Fri 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 85,200 spike high; floor at 84,478 swing low.
The NY session rally after the US claims and ISM prints ran from 83,395 to a spike high at 85,200, which was rejected back below the 85,000 round number. Since then, lower highs from 84,780 have pressed price into the 84,478 swing low, at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 38 as the Asia session opens.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84,478 swing low exposes the fib 50% at 84,298
Close above the 84,780 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 85,000 round number and the 85,200 spike high
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
21:18 UTC
Pullback within intraday uptrend · RSI 41 · price 84,502.94
Lower highs off 85,200, range 84,481–84,781.
The NY leg ran from the 83,395 base after the 13:30 UTC claims print to a session high at 85,200, which was rejected with a long wick above the 85,000 round number. Since then price has eased to the 38.2% fib near 84,510. After NY close it is compressing between the pullback low at 84,481 and a lower high at 84,781, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 41.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84,481 pullback low confirms a lower low and exposes the 84,319 asian high, near the 50% fib of the NY leg
Recovery above the 84,781 lower high reopens the 85,000 round number and the 85,200 session high
US NFP and AHE on Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
21:08 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back off highs · RSI 43 · price 84,554.88
Higher lows from 83,131 into an 85,200 peak; lower high at 84,780 since.
London open swept the Asian range low to 83,131. The NY rally then broke the Asian high and tagged an 85,200 session high, but was rejected above the 85,000 round number as the hot ISM prices-paid print and firm yields capped the move. Late NY is fading below the 84,780 lower high, with the pullback low at 84,481 sitting on the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally fib, RSI(14) near 43 and price back under EMA20.
What it said to watch
Close below the 84,481 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 84,300 and the 84,107 swing low
Break of the 84,780 lower high and the descending pullback line reopens the 85,000 round number and 85,200 session high
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
20:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back off session high · RSI 52 · price 84,487.96
Lower highs below 85,200 after NY break of Asian range.
After a London-open drop to 83,131, the NY session rallied from 83,395 through the Asian high at 84,319 and tagged a session high at 85,200, where it was rejected. The hot ISM prices-paid print and a firm USD kept the 85,000 round number capping, and a lower-high sequence late in NY hours has pulled price back to the 38.2% fib of the NY leg near 84,510.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,780 lower high reopens the 85,000 round number and the 85,200 session high
Failure to hold the Asian high at 84,319 (near the 50% fib) puts the 84,107 swing low and 61.8% fib in play
US NFP and AHE Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The NY session rally from 83395 cleared the 85000 psych level and hit a 85200 session high, then got rejected despite the hawkish-leaning ISM prices paid print (77.9). Since then price has printed lower highs, with the latest at 84780, and is holding the 84489 swing low at the 38.2% fib into late NY hours; RSI(14) has cooled to ~60.
Support: 84,489.00, 84,319.00, 84,000.00
Resistance: 84,780.00, 85,000.00, 85,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84489 swing low exposes the 50% fib near the 84319 asian high
Close above the 84780 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline and puts 85000 psych and the 85200 session high back in play
Loss of 84319 opens the 84000 round number near the 61.8% fib
US NFP and wages Fri 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read; hot AHE is the flagged downside risk
Asian-range breakout, lower highs off the session high.
London swept the Asian low to 83,131, then NY broke the Asian high at 84,319 and ran to a session high at 85,200, where it was rejected despite the hawkish ISM prices-paid print. The late-NY pullback held a swing low at 84,489, near the 38.2% retracement of the NY leg. Price is back near 84,700 under a run of lower highs, RSI(14) around 58.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,000 round number reopens the 85,200 session high
Failure to hold the 84,489 swing low exposes the asian high at 84,319
US NFP and AHE at 12:30 UTC Fri (~16h) could materially shift this read
20:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back off highs · RSI 56 · price 84,604.83
NY higher-low chain intact; rising trendline broken on retracement.
The NY rally from the 83,395 low ran through the 85,000 psych level to a session high at 85,200, then met rejection and slipped back below 85K. That pullback broke the NY trendline and is pausing at the 84,489 pullback low, near the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s, with hot ISM prices paid keeping the hawkish-Fed headwind in play.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84,489 pullback low extends the retracement toward the 84,107 swing low
Reclaim of 85,000 psych and the 85,200 session high would restore the NY higher-high chain
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (~16.5h) could materially shift this read; the wage print is the key swing factor
19:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 55 · price 84,561.87
NY rally rejected above 85000, first lower low printed.
Late NY session: the bounce from the 83395 low ran to an 85200 session high, but the push above 85000 psych failed, consistent with hot ISM prices paid capping BTC near $85K. Price is now holding the 84516 pullback low at the 38.2% fib as Williams and Cook speak; RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and price sits just above EMA20.
Support: 84,516.00, 84,107.00, 83,807.00
Resistance: 85,000.00, 85,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84516 pullback low and 38.2% fib exposes the 84107 swing low near the 61.8% retracement
Loss of 84107 swing low puts the 83807 ny base back in play and breaks the NY higher-low chain
Reclaim of 85000 psych on a closing basis reopens the 85200 session high
Fed Williams/Cook remarks now underway could shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
19:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from day high · RSI 53 · price 84,525.91
NY broke above the Asian high, rejected at 85,200, lower high at 84,900.
NY session cleared the Asian high at 84,320 and tagged a day high of 85,200 at 18:30 UTC. The wick above psych 85,000 was rejected, in line with the hot ISM prices paid capping upside. Late NY has printed a lower high at 84,900, and price now sits just below EMA20 on the fib 38.2 of the NY leg and the rising tl near 84,510, with RSI(14) near 53.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the fib 38.2 / rising tl near 84,510 exposes the 50% zone at the asian high 84,320
Loss of the 84,107 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain
Recovery above the 84,900 lower high puts psych 85,000 and the 85,200 day high back in play
Fed Williams and Cook remarks (19:30 UTC) and Friday NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NY HH/HL chain from 83,395; first pullback after the 85,200 rejection.
NY session lifted BTC from 83,395 to an 85,200 session high, but the spike above the 85,000 round number was rejected. Price is now near 84,740, holding above the 84,603 swing low and the rising NY trendline, with RSI(14) cooling to ~64. The cap at 85,000 matches the digest: ETF outflows resumed and hot ISM prices paid keep yields near 5.3%.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,200 session high negates the rejection; repeated failure at the round number points to a lower high
Loss of the 84,603 swing low exposes the 84,444 prior high and the NY trendline; a break below the 84,107 higher low ends the NY HH/HL chain
Fed's Williams and Cook at 19:30 UTC, then Friday's NFP (f/c 90K) at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL staircase from 83395; rotation below 85200 session high.
The NY leg climbed from 83395 through the Asian high at 84319 and past the 85000 round number. The 85200 session high was rejected on a long wick. Since then price has rotated between the 84603 swing low and the 84900 lower high, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-60s as ETF outflows and 5.3% yields cap the push above 85K.
Support: 84,602.83, 84,510.60, 84,319.14
Resistance: 84,899.50, 85,000.00, 85,200.17
What it said to watch
Bowman speaking now (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 84603 swing low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 38.2% fib at 84511, then the Asian high at 84319
Acceptance above the 84900 lower high and the 85000 round number puts the 85200 session high back in play
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the larger risk event for the 83.5K-85K range
18:48 UTC
Uptrend, stalling near 85K · RSI 66 · price 84,893.51
Higher-low chain through NY; wick rejection at 85,200 session high.
The NY leg climbed from 83,395 with a clean higher-low chain and rising trendline support. Price cleared the 85,000 psych level, but the 85,200 session high printed as a long upper wick and price slipped back under 85,000, in line with the digest's read of supply above $85K amid ETF outflows and hot ISM prices paid. RSI(14) is near 66 and price holds above the 84,654 swing low.
What it said to watch
Fed Bowman at 19:00 UTC and Williams/Cook at 19:30 UTC; a hawkish tone could break the higher-low chain
An M15 close back above the 85,000 psych level and the 85,200 session high extends the higher-high sequence
A loss of the 84,654 swing low and the HL trendline exposes the NY leg fib 38.2 at 84,510, then the prior hl at 84,107
18:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at range top · RSI 67 · price 84,771.64
Higher-low chain from NY open, rejection at 85,000.
Treasury yields fell sharply around the NY open, and the bounce from 83,395 built a higher-low chain along the NY trendline. That move cleared the Asian high at 84,319 and tagged the 85,000 range top (session high 85,029), where it met rejection. Price is now holding the 84,653 pullback low late in the NY session with RSI(14) cooling to ~67, and the NY rally fib 38.2% sits near the 84,444 prior high.
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read within the next two bars
An M15 close above the 85,029 session high breaks the 85,000 range top
Failure to hold the 84,653 pullback low shifts focus to the 84,444 prior high and the NY rally fib 38.2%
A break of the 84,107 swing low and the NY trendline ends the higher-low chain
NFP (Fri 12:30 UTC) remains the next major risk for the range boundaries
18:18 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at range top · RSI 67 · price 84,837.57
NY higher-low chain; Asian high broken, session high 85,029 capping.
From the NY open, BTC built a higher-low chain off 83,395, cleared the Asian high at 84,319 and tagged a 85,029 session high, the $85k range top, as yields eased from 24-year highs. The last two bars stalled there and the 18:00 UTC pullback low held at 84,654, with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-70s to about 67.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,029 session high takes price out of the $85k range top
Failure to hold the 84,654 pullback low opens a retest of the Asian high at 84,319, near the 38.2% of the NY leg fib
A break of the 84,107 swing low and the NY higher lows trendline ends the intraday higher-low chain
Fed Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could shift this read within the hour; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC looms
Higher-low chain since the 13:15 UTC low; two-bar rejection at the 85,029 session high.
The NY session rally off the 83,395 low began at the Wall Street open as yields eased. It built a higher-low chain and tagged 85,029, the session high and top of the $82,800–85,000 band, before two bars of rejection. Price at 84,740 is testing rising support near 84,700, with the 84,572 prior high below and RSI cooling from near 70.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,029 session high breaks the range top
Loss of rising support and the 84,452 breakout base exposes 84,405, the 38.2% of the NY rally fib
Break below the 84,107 higher low ends the NY higher-low chain
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC
17:47 UTC
Uptrend, extended into range top · RSI 75 · price 84,991.40
NY higher-low chain from 83,395; Asian high broken, session high at 85,016 being tested.
NY session built a higher-low chain off 83,395, clearing the 84,319 Asian high and the 84,572 breakout lvl before tagging the 85,016 session high at the top of the $82,800–85,000 range, as yields eased from 24-year highs. RSI(14) near 75 is hot but trend-normal; ATR around $298 sets the expected bar size.
What it said to watch
A close above the 85,016 session high clears the $85,000 range top; rejection there keeps the range intact
Loss of the 84,572 breakout lvl brings the 84,319 Asian high and the 50% ny leg fib (~84,206) into play
A break of the ny hl trend and the 84,107 swing low ends the NY higher-low chain
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could move yields and this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC
17:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, accelerating into late NY · RSI 76 · price 84,937.46
HH/HL chain since 13:30 UTC; Asian high broken, price pressing range top.
NY session cleared the 84319 Asian high and the 84571 prior high on a clean higher-lows chain. That run printed a session high at 84971, just under the 85,000 range top. RSI(14) is near 76, extended but not extreme, with lower yields doing the lifting despite the ETF outflow headline.
Support: 84,319.14, 84,107.38
Resistance: 84,971.42
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 85,000 range top keeps the multi-day range intact; sustained M15 closes above it put price in fresh ground
M15 close back below the 84571 prior high would mark the move as a false break
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 84107 swing low unwinds the NY leg toward the 84319 Asian high
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson now, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30) could move yields and shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC
NY session reversed the Asia–London fade. As yields pulled back from 24-year highs, price built a higher-low chain off 83,395, cleared the Asian high at 84,319 and printed a session high at 84,572. Price is pressing that high again with RSI(14) near 66; the 84,107 higher low sits at the 38.2% fib of the NY leg.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 84,107 higher low breaks the NY HH/HL chain and exposes the 83,806 swing low
Loss of the Asian high at 84,319 would turn the breakout into a false break
Clean break of the 84,572 session high puts the 85,000 round number in play, the digest's range top
Fed speakers (Jefferson 17:30 UTC, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30) could shift this read via yields
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk for the range
NY higher-low chain from 83,395. The break of the Asian high faded back inside the range..
BTC bounced at the NY open from the 83,395 NY low as yields eased. A rising trendline of higher lows carried price through the 84,319 Asian high to a session high at 84,572, where it met rejection and slipped back below the Asian high near 84,240. The 84,107 swing low sits on the 38.2% fib of the NY leg and the trendline, with RSI(14) cooling to about 60.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 84,319 Asian high reopens the 84,572 session high
Failure to hold the 84,107 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 83,807 higher low near the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 83,807 higher low breaks the NY chain and puts the 83,395 NY low back in focus
Fed speakers (Jefferson 17:30 UTC, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30) could shift yields and this read; NFP follows Fri 12:30 UTC
16:47 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through NY session · RSI 70 · price 84,408.04
NY broke above the Asian range high, now holding just above it.
The NY open bounce from 83,395 cleared the Asian high at 84,319 and set a new NY high at 84,572 as yields eased off 24-year highs, with higher lows stacking along the NY trendline. RSI(14) is near 70 and price is holding just above the Asian high after the first pullback from the NY high.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 84,319 asian high puts the breakout in question
Loss of the 84,158 swing low and the NY trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 38.2% of the NY rally near 84,122 and the 83,807 higher low
Clearance of the 84,572 ny high opens the path to the 85,000 round number, the range-top area in the digest
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, then Bowman, Williams and Cook) could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through NY · RSI 67 · price 84,363.09
HH/HL chain off 83,395, Asian range high cleared.
Early London dipped below the Asian low to 83,131 and price recovered. NY then built a higher-low chain off the 83,395 ny low, cleared the 84,319 asian high and printed a session high at 84,444, with RSI(14) near 67. The hot ISM prices-paid print knocked price to 83,500 at 14:00 UTC, but the 83,807 swing low held twice and the advance resumed.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 84,319 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 83,807 swing low, which also sits near the 61.8% of the NY rally fib, breaks the NY higher lows trendline
84,444 session high and the 85,000 psych level sit inside the reported 84K-86.5K supply band, an area to watch for rejection or break
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams/Cook) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
Break below the 83,395 ny low unwinds the NY advance entirely
16:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through NY · RSI 63 · price 84,338.12
Breakout above Asian high, NY higher-low chain.
BTC bounced at the NY open from the 83,395 NY low and climbed through 84,000. It shrugged off the hot ISM prices-paid print and set higher lows, including a double swing low at 83,807. Price has now cleared the 84,319 Asian high to print a 84,444 session high, with RSI(14) near 63 and room before extreme readings.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 84,319 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 83,807 swing low breaks the NY higher-low trendline
Acceptance above the 84,444 session high opens the 85,000 round number, inside the $84K-$86.5K supply band
Fed's Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook (17:30-19:30 UTC) could shift yields and this read ahead of Friday's NFP
London open swept the Asian low to a 83,131 london low before recovering. NY extended the rebound through two-way swings around the ISM release, printing higher lows from the 83,395 ny low. Supply has capped the 84,300 session high three times, and price is pressing that cap just under the 84,319 asia high with RSI(14) near 58.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 84,305 session high and the 84,348 prior high breaks the NY cap
Failure to hold the 83,806 higher low breaks the ny higher lows trendline and reopens the 83,395 ny low
The 50–61.8% band of the NY leg fib (83,850–83,743) aligns with the higher low area
The 83,131 london low marks the floor of the 24h range
Fed speakers Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook (17:30–19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of NFP
15:48 UTC
Range, lows rising since London · RSI 51 · price 83,904.60
Back inside Asian range, NY high capping.
The London open flush to the 83,131 london low was fully reclaimed. The NY whipsaw around the hot ISM prices print then stalled twice at the 84,291 ny high (84,282 retest), just under the 84,319 asian high. Price is chopping near 83,900, around the 38.2% of the London-NY fib, with rising lows intact and RSI(14) neutral at 51.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,291 ny high and 84,319 asian high breaks the cap on the session range
Loss of the 83,737 swing low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 83,395 pre-ny low
Break of the 83,131 london low would negate the intraday recovery
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, then Bowman and Williams/Cook, could move yields and this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC
Inside Asian range 83,307–84,319; higher lows since US data, capped twice near 84,290.
Price is still inside the Asian range. The London-open false break to the 83,131 day low was reclaimed, and the US data hour, with ISM prices paid running hot, lifted price off the 83,395 us data low. Since then the NY session has printed higher lows along a rising trendline through the 83,807 swing low, but supply capped twice at the 84,291 session high; RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,291 session high and 84,348 prior high breaks the Asian range top
Loss of the rising trendline and 83,807 swing low exposes the 83,574 fib 61.8% of the day low to session high move, then the 83,395 us data low
Break below the 83,131 day low turns the London false break into a lower-low
Fed's Jefferson 17:30 UTC, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 could shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger range risk
15:17 UTC
Two-way range, NY higher low in place · RSI 56 · price 84,078.41
Higher low at 83,395 above the London day low; capped below 84,291–84,348.
NY session recovered the London selloff, printing a higher low at the 83,395 ny low above the 83,131 day low. The hot ISM prices-paid print whipsawed price around 14:00 UTC. Two rejections at the 84,282–84,291 ny high keep the Asian high 84,319 and the 84,348 prior high capping, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR wide at roughly $288 per bar.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,348 prior high breaks the 24h range top and the mid-$84Ks cap
Loss of the 83,737 swing low, then the 83,395 ny low, undoes the higher-lows sequence and reopens the day low
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could shift yields and this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Lower highs from 84,348 against a higher low at 83,395 above the 83,131 day low.
Early NY trade rallied off the 83,395 higher low through the hot ISM prices-paid whipsaw. The 84,291 session high stalled under the 84,319–84,348 prior highs, a third lower high beneath the mid-$84Ks cap. Price is holding the 61.8% fib of the NY leg at 83,737, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR(14) about $271.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,348 prior high breaks the lower-high sequence and the range top
Failure at the 83,737 61.8% fib re-exposes the 83,395 higher low. A break of the 83,131 day low ends the higher-low read.
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams/Cook) could move yields and shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
14:47 UTC
Range, higher lows building · RSI 55 · price 83,994.50
83,130–84,350 range; lower highs at the top, higher lows off the London low.
Early in the NY session, the bounce off the 83,395 NY low ran into the hot ISM prices-paid print (77.9). It dipped to the ISM low at 83,500, then stalled at 84,291, a fresh session high still capped below the 84,348 prior high along a lower-high cap. Lows keep stepping up from the 83,131 London low on a rising higher-low trendline. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is roughly $265 per bar.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,348 prior high breaks the lower-high cap and the range read
Repeated rejection at the 84,291 session high keeps price inside the range
Loss of the 83,500 ism low and 83,395 ny low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 83,131 london low
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
14:32 UTC
Intraday range, higher lows since London · RSI 58 · price 84,080.40
HH/HL chain off 83,131 inside a 83,131–84,348 range.
The rally off the London low at 83,131 is printing higher lows at 83,367 and 83,395, and the 14:00 UTC ISM bar's rejection of 83,500 held despite the hot prices-paid print, lifting price to a session high at 84,161 in the first hour of NY. The Asian high at 84,319 and the 84,348 range cap, the area where sellers capped the advance yesterday, sit just overhead. RSI(14) near 58 is not stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,348 range cap breaks the 24h range high
Failure to hold the 83,395 higher low breaks the rising support from the London low
A drop back through the 83,500 ism low puts the 83,131 london low back in play
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could shift this read via yields
Contracting intraday range 83395–84055 inside 83131–84348.
London open broke the Asian range low at 83307 and swept down to the 83131 day low, then recovered. Since then, rising lows from 83131 to the 83395 NY low meet lower highs from the 84055 London high. The ISM bar whipsawed 83500–83992 on a headline miss and hot prices paid, leaving price mid-range near 83800 with RSI(14) neutral and ATR(14) around $228 per bar.
Support: 83,395.00, 83,131.00
Resistance: 84,055.00, 84,348.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 84055 and the lower highs line ends the contraction and puts the 84348 prior high back in play
Loss of the 83395 NY low and the rising lows line reopens the 83131 day low
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could break the coil after the hot ISM prices paid
14:05 UTC
Sideways, compressing · RSI 48 · price 83,755.76
Higher lows vs lower highs since London, tightening coil.
London open broke the Asian low at 83307 and swept down to the 83131 london low before recovering. Since then, higher lows at 83367 and 83395 against lower highs at 84055 and 83973 have squeezed price into a tightening coil around 83750, with RSI(14) neutral near 48. The early-NY dip to 83395 reversed sharply into the 14:00 UTC ISM release, while sticky US yields keep the topside capped.
Support: 83,395.16, 83,307.26, 83,131.45
Resistance: 84,055.43, 84,319.14
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83973 lower high breaks the compression, with the 84055 london high next
Loss of the 83395 higher low reopens the 83307 asian low and 83131 london low
Asian high at 84319 sits just under the 84,360 range cap and marks the session ceiling
ISM Mfg / Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak at 17:30–19:30 UTC could break the coil; ATR near 21,200 pips
13:47 UTC
Sideways, compressing into the event · RSI 58 · price 83,938.56
Rising lows vs falling highs inside the 83,131–84,319 session range.
London open swept below the Asian range and yesterday's 83,212 low to a 83,131 session low, then recovered. Since then the higher lows at 83,367 and 83,395 and the falling highs off the 84,319 Asian high have squeezed the range. The 13:30 UTC bar reversed the early-NY dip in one ~465-point candle, putting price back under the 84,012–84,055 swing high cap just ahead of ISM.
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing (Prices Paid f/c 72.3) and Waller at 14:00 UTC land within the next bar and could break the compression
M15 close above the 84,055 swing high breaks the falling highs line and exposes the 84,319 Asian high
Failure to hold the 83,395 higher low breaks the rising lows and puts the 83,131 session low back in play
13:32 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 83,443.11
Lower highs from 84319; NY breakdown from London consolidation.
London swept the 83307 asian low down to 83131 before rebounding to the 84055 london high. Early NY has slipped out of the 83740 range floor to an 83395 session low, beyond the 61.8% retrace, with lower highs off the 84319 asian high capping and RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 83,395.16, 83,307.26, 83,131.45
Resistance: 83,740.00, 84,055.43, 84,319.14
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid alongside Waller at 14:00 UTC, about 30 minutes out, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 83395 session low exposes the 83307 asian low and the 83131 london low
Recovery above the 83740 range floor neutralises the NY breakdown; the lower highs line sits near the 84055 london high
24h range 83,131–84,350 with a lower high at 84,055 and price fading toward the range floor.
Three straight red bars from the 84,012 retest of the 84,055 session high have taken BTC back to the 61.8% fib of the London-low fib leg near 83,480. That puts price on the 83,400 psych floor, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs. London's early false break under the 83,307 asian low and a probe to the 83,131 london low was reclaimed, and the lower-highs line from the 84,319 asian high keeps capping rallies as sticky yields weigh into ISM.
What it said to watch
M15 close below 83,400 psych exposes the 83,307 asian low, then the 83,131 london low
Reclaim of the 84,055 session high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 84,319 asian high
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC, roughly 45 min out, could materially shift this read
13:08 UTC
Intraday range, slipping off London high · RSI 43 · price 83,665.86
London swept and reclaimed the Asian low, then a lower-high drift below 84,055.
London broke below the Asian low at 83,307 to a london low of 83,131, then reclaimed it and capped at the 84,055 london high. Price is easing back between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that bounce, with RSI(14) near 43 and the overnight $83.4K defense still holding ahead of ISM.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,604 pullback low exposes the 83,367 swing low and the 61.8% fib near 83,484
Reclaim of the 83,850 pivot reopens the 84,055 london high, then the 84,319 asian high
Loss of the 83,131 london low invalidates the false-break read
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 83131 session low, capped at 84055.
London broke below the Asian low near 83307 to an 83131 session low, then reclaimed it. Higher lows since then have pressed price into a tight band under the 84055 session high, with RSI(14) near 55. The 12:30 UTC jobless claims beat barely moved price, and stubborn yields remain the cited cap ahead of ISM.
Support: 83,733.79, 83,367.19, 83,131.45
Resistance: 84,055.43, 84,319.14
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing (Prices Paid f/c 72.3) and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 84055 session high opens the 84319 Asian high
Loss of the 83734 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline; the 83367 higher low and 83131 session low sit beneath
Higher-low chain off london low, capped below 84,055 swing high.
London open swept the Asian low and set the london low at 83,131. Higher lows at 83,367 and 83,734 have since lifted price to the 61.8% fib of the 84,319–83,131 drop, with RSI(14) near 57. The post-PCE fade from 85,486 still frames the window, and the 84,055 swing high is capping the recovery into the NY open.
What it said to watch
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 84,055 swing high opens the path to the 84,319 asian high
A break of the 83,734 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 83,367 higher low
Loss of the 83,131 london low turns the structure back into a lower-low sequence
12:18 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off the London low · RSI 57 · price 83,907.60
Post-sweep higher lows compressing under the 84,055 session high.
London open swept the Asian low and yesterday's 83,212 post-PCE low to an 83,131 session low. Price has since built higher lows at the 83,367 swing low and the 83,734 higher low. It now sits just above the 61.8% fib of the 84,319–83,131 drop, capped by the 84,055 session high near the 78.6%, with stubborn yields still keeping BTC inside the old range.
What it said to watch
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 84,055 session high opens the asian high at 84,319
Break of rising support and the 83,734 higher low undercuts the recovery, with the 83,367 swing low next
Loss of the 83,131 session low resumes the London-open downleg
Higher-low chain from the London sweep low, capped by the 84055 session high.
The London-hours flush took out the Asian range low at 83307 and printed a session low of 83131, but that break was quickly reclaimed. Since then a higher-low sequence (83367, then the 83734 swing low) has carried price into the 61.8–78.6% retracement of the Asian high-to-session-low move. The 84055 session high is capping, with price above EMA20/50 and RSI(14) near 60; the post-PCE fade from 85485 still bounds the window.
Support: 83,733.79, 83,367.19, 83,131.45
Resistance: 84,055.43, 84,319.14
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84055 session high opens the 84319 asian high
Failure to hold the 83734 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 83367 higher low
A break of the London trendline and the 83131 session low would turn the sweep into a lower-low
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows from London low · RSI 62 · price 83,926.57
HH/HL chain off 83131, capped below session high 84055.
London pushed below the Asian low near 83307 to a london low of 83131, then reclaimed it. A higher low chain at the 83367 swing low and the 83734 higher low has since lifted price above the 61.8% fib of the 84319–83131 drop. The session high at 84055 is capping the move into the NY open, and yesterday's cool-PCE spike to 85486 is fully unwound.
Support: 83,734.00, 83,367.00, 83,131.00
Resistance: 84,055.00, 84,319.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84055 session high opens the 84319 asian high
Loss of the 83734 higher low and the higher-low trendline breaks the micro HH/HL chain, exposing the 83367 swing low
A move back below the 83131 london low invalidates the false break read
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:33 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since London low · RSI 57 · price 83,834.68
Back inside Asian range after false break lower; HH/HL chain.
London's break below the Asian low failed at 83,131 (london low), and price has since built a higher low at 83,367 and a session high at 84,055. It now sits mid-London near the 61.8% fib of the 84,319–83,131 drop, with yesterday's post-PCE spike to 85,486 fully unwound.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,055 session high opens the 84,319 asian high
Loss of the 83,367 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 83,131 london low
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM/Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:17 UTC
Sideways, short-term higher lows since London · RSI 55 · price 83,818.69
False break below Asian range, recovering to mid-range.
London open broke below the Asian range to a london low at 83,131, then reclaimed it. Price has since printed a higher low at 83,367 and a session high at 84,055, sitting mid-range inside the 83,131–84,319 asian high band with RSI(14) neutral near 55. Yesterday's soft-PCE spike to 85,486 was fully faded as strong growth data offset the dovish read.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,367 higher low breaks the rising higher low line
Failure to hold the 83,131 london low confirms a lower-low below the Asian range
Close above the 84,055 session high opens the path to the 84,319 asian high
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:06 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off London low · RSI 56 · price 83,863.64
London sweep of Asian low, higher low at 83,367, capped near 84,055.
London opened by breaking the 83,307 Asian low to 83,131 (london low), then reclaimed it and printed a higher low at 83,367. The rebound has stalled at the 61.8% retrace of the 84,319–83,131 drop, with the 84,055 session high capping it. Price sits mid-range inside the post-PCE fade, RSI(14) neutral near 56.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,055 session high opens the 84,319 Asian high
Loss of the 83,367 higher low breaks rising support and re-exposes the asian low and london low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
10:48 UTC
Recovering intraday, back inside Asian range · RSI 60 · price 83,833.68
London false break of Asian low reclaimed; higher low at 83367, pressing local cap.
London open dumped below the Asian low at 83307 to a window low of 83131. That break was reclaimed, and price has since printed a higher low at 83367 and is pressing the 83850–83870 local cap, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the 84319–83131 drop. Price action stays two-way after yesterday's faded soft-PCE spike; RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR(14) runs about $215.
Support: 83,367.19, 83,307.26, 83,131.45
Resistance: 84,128.35, 84,319.14
What it said to watch
A close above the 83870 local cap and 61.8% fib opens the London high at 84128, then the Asian high at 84319
Loss of the 83367 higher low breaks the rising trendline and puts the Asian low at 83307 and the London low at 83131 back in play
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
10:32 UTC
Range-bound, recovering from a London-session low · RSI 46 · price 83,700.82
False break below Asian low reclaimed; higher low at 83,367 under an 83,851 cap.
London open broke the 83,307 Asian low to an 83,131 session low, then reclaimed it. The bounce stalled at an 83,851 morning high near the 61.8% retrace of the 84,319–83,131 drop. A higher low at 83,367 is holding, with price sitting on flat EMAs and RSI(14) neutral near 46, while BTC still trades below yesterday's post-PCE spike-and-fade.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,851 morning high and 61.8% fib opens the 84,319 Asian high
Loss of the 83,367 higher low and the 83,307 Asian low re-exposes the 83,131 session low
Jobless claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower high at 84319, sweep low 83131, retracement rejected near 61.8%.
Early London reversed the Asia-session rally from the 84319 session high and swept below yesterday's post-PCE low to 83131 before bouncing. The bounce stalled at the 83851 bounce high, near the 61.8% retracement of the London drop, and price is now holding just above the 83367 higher low with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 83,367.19, 83,131.45
Resistance: 84,319.14
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above the 83851 bounce high would negate the rejection at the 61.8% retracement of the London drop.
A break below the 83367 higher low would expose a retest of the 83131 sweep low.
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read during NY hours.
London swept the Asian low, rebound stalled at the 61.8% retracement.
London open broke the Asian low at 83,307 and reached a London low of 83,131. That break reversed, and the rebound has stalled at the 61.8% fib near the 83,851 session high, as yesterday's soft-PCE spike to 85,486 stays fully faded. Price is chopping around flat EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 50, inside an 83,131–84,319 band.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,851 session high clears the 61.8% fib and puts the 84,319 Asian high back in play
M15 close below the 83,131 London low marks a fresh lower low under the swept Asian low
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing (f/c 55, Prices Paid f/c 72.3) and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a two-way range · RSI 58 · price 83,813.70
London false break below Asian low, rebound to 61.8% retracement.
London open broke below the 83,307 Asian low to a session low at 83,131, then reclaimed it. The rebound has made higher lows along the recovery line to the fib 61.8 near 83,865, with RSI(14) near 58. The 84,319 Asian high sits above, and the soft-PCE spike faded below 85,000 yesterday.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,865 fib 61.8 opens the 84,319 Asian high
Break of the recovery line and loss of the 83,307 Asian low reopens the 83,131 session low
85,000 range cap from the faded PCE spike remains the upper boundary
Jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM / Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:33 UTC
Post-flush rebound inside a 24h range · RSI 58 · price 83,759.76
Failed break below Asian range low, higher lows building off 83,131.
London open dropped roughly $700 through the 83,307 asian low and yesterday's 83,212 post-PCE low, printing a 83,131 london low. Price reclaimed both and has made four straight higher lows. It now sits back above ema20 at about the 50% retrace of the drop from the 84,319 asian high. The soft-PCE pop to 85,486 has fully faded with yields near 2002 highs, leaving price inside yesterday's range.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83,963 breakdown shelf clears the 61.8% retrace near 83,865 and reopens the 84,319 asian high
Loss of the recovery line and ema20 near 83,680 puts the 83,307 asian low back in play
A break below the 83,131 london low turns the false break into a confirmed lower-low
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, and ISM Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:18 UTC
Two-way intraday range, rebounding off a sweep low · RSI 51 · price 83,646.88
London false break below Asian range, reclaimed; rebound capped near 50% fib.
London open dropped from 84000 through the asian low at 83307, then swept yesterday's pce low at 83212 to a sweep low of 83131 before price reclaimed the Asian range. The rebound high at 83717 sits on the 50% fib of the 84319–83131 leg, with price just under the EMA20/50 cluster near 83680. The broader range holds after the soft-PCE spike to 85486 faded on near-2002-high yields.
Support: 83,307.00, 83,212.00, 83,131.00
Resistance: 83,717.00, 84,000.00, 84,319.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83717 rebound high and 50% fib opens the 84000 round number, then the 84319 asian high
Failure to hold 83307 asian low puts the 83212 pce low and 83131 sweep low back in play
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid (f/c 72.3) at 14:00 UTC, alongside Waller, could materially shift this read
09:07 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off the session low · RSI 41 · price 83,540.00
Lower high at 84319 Asian high; London false break below Asian low, now reclaimed.
London open flushed $700 through the 83307 Asian low, then swept to the 83131 London low before reclaiming the Asian range. Price is now near the 38.2% fib of the Asian high-to-London low drop and holding below EMA20/50. The 83988 drop origin caps the bounce while firm yields keep BTC inside the post-PCE range.
Support: 83,307.00, 83,131.00
Resistance: 83,988.00, 84,319.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 83307 Asian low, then the 83131 London low, reopens the downtrend leg
Acceptance above the 50% fib (~83725) and the 83988 drop origin neutralises the London breakdown
A move through the 84319 Asian high would invalidate the lower-high sequence
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 85486; 83131 sweep low reclaimed, back inside Asian range.
London open broke the asian low at 83307. Price then swept yesterday's 83212 prior low to 83131 at 08:30 UTC and closed back above 83307, while bounces stall at the 83560 bounce high, under ema20 at 83654. The session keeps printing lower highs since the post-PCE spike to 85486; RSI(14) 41, ATR(14) about $203.
Support: 83,307.00, 83,212.00, 83,131.00
Resistance: 83,560.00, 83,654.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 83307 asian low re-establishes the break; a loss of the 83131 sweep low opens the 82800 range floor
A close above the 83560 bounce high and ema20 at 83654 brings the 38.2–50% fib of the asian high to sweep low move (83585–83725) into play
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Downtrend into London, pressing range lows · RSI 37 · price 83,282.28
Asian range broken lower at London open; price holding just above the prior low.
London open broke the Asian range with a 770-point drop from 84,000 that stalled at 83,218, just above the 83,212 prior low left by the post-PCE fade during NY hours. The rebound to the 83,562 bounce high fell short of the 38.2% asian high retrace, and price now sits back under the 83,307 asian low with RSI(14) near 37.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 83,212 prior low breaks the post-PCE range and brings the 82,800 range floor into view
Reclaiming the 83,307 asian low and closing above the 83,562 bounce high would turn the London break into a false break, with 84,319 asian high back in play
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range low broken at London open; lower highs since PCE spike.
London open broke the Asian range low near 83307 with a ~$770 bar that tested yesterday's post-PCE swing low at 83212. The bounce stalled at 83562, about 31% of the London drop. Price holds below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 35, and the lower highs from the 85486 PCE spike still cap the tape as yields stay near 2002 highs.
Support: 83,212.00, 82,955.00
Resistance: 83,562.00, 84,319.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83212 swing low exposes the 82955 window low, then the 82800 range floor
Acceptance above the 83562 bounce high puts the 84319 Asian high back in play
Break above the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), then ISM Prices Paid and Waller (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
08:06 UTC
Intraday downtrend after failed Asia rally · RSI 39 · price 83,360.20
Asia gains erased at London open; basing 83218–83562.
The Asian push from 83307 to the 84319 asia high was fully reversed in the first hour of London. A 07:15 UTC bar swept the Asian range low and printed a london low at 83218, just above yesterday's post-PCE dip. The rebound stalled at the 83562 bounce high, below the 38.2% level of the london drop fib, with price under both EMAs and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 83,218.35, 82,954.64
Resistance: 83,561.98, 84,319.14
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83218 london low puts the 82955 24h low in play
M15 close above the 83562 bounce high and the 38.2% fib (~83640) eases the downside read
Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Mfg/Prices Paid with Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Range 83,212–84,350; Asian low swept at London open.
London open drove BTC from the 84,319 Asian high through the 83,307 Asian low in a single ~770-point bar. The sweep stalled at 83,218, just above the 83,212 swing low left by the post-PCE fade, and price recovered to the 83,450s. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42, still inside the range that has held since the soft-PCE spike to 85,486 faded on firm yields.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83,307 asian low, then the 83,212 swing low, turns the sweep into a lower-low
Recovery through the 83,562 rebound high and the 38.2% retrace near 83,640 neutralises the London-open drop
84,000 round number and 84,319 asian high cap the upper half of the range
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
07:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend after a failed Asia rally · RSI 36 · price 83,318.24
London-open break of the Asian range low, stalled at the post-PCE low.
The London open reversed the Asia-session rally to the 84319 asian high with a roughly $770 bar. That bar broke the 83307 asian low and stalled at 83218, a near-match of the 83212 pce low from yesterday's faded soft-PCE spike to 85486. Price is now retesting the asian low from just above, RSI(14) near 36, and yields near 2002 highs remain the drag.
Support: 83,307.26, 83,212.36
Resistance: 84,319.14
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 83964 breakdown level negates the London-open range break and puts the 84319 asian high back in view
A break of the 83212 pce low exposes the 83000 round number and the 82954 window low
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Hold or fail around the 83307 asian low decides whether the break turns into a false break
Asian higher-low chain broken; lower high at 84128, testing the 05:00 UTC swing low.
Yesterday's post-PCE spike to 85486 faded with yields pinned near 2002 highs. Asia rebuilt from the 83307 asian low to an 84319 asian high just above the cited 84,049 resistance, then met rejection. Early London has printed a lower high at 84128 and is sitting on the 83930 swing low, which is also the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally.
Support: 83,930.00, 83,619.00, 83,307.00
Resistance: 84,128.00, 84,319.00, 84,348.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 83930 swing low and 38.2% fib exposes the 50% at ~83813, then the 83619 higher low
Reclaiming the 84128 lower high re-opens the 84319 asian high and the 84348 prior high
Losing the 83619 higher low unwinds the Asian rally back toward the 83307 asian low
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
The soft-PCE spike to the 85,486 pce high fully faded. Asia then ran from the 83,307 asian low to 84,319, a rejection just under the 84,348 prior high from yesterday's post-PCE rebound. Into London open price has pulled back to ~84,030, about a 28% retracement, with the 84,013 pullback low holding and RSI(14) cooling to ~58.
What it said to watch
Break below the 84,013 pullback low opens the 50% fib zone near 83,830
Close above the 84,319 asian high and 84,348 prior high extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 83,307 asian low erases the Asian upswing
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
85,486 pce high remains the upper bound of the post-release range
06:48 UTC
Asia recovery, momentum fading · RSI 60 · price 84,056.43
HH/HL chain from the 83,307 Asian low; first rejection at the Asian high.
The Asia rally ran from the 83,307 Asian low to 84,319. That recovered part of the PCE spike-and-fade from the 85,486 pce high, which reversed as yields held firm. The 06:30 UTC bar was rejected under the Asian high and the 84,348 prior high, cut the Asia trendline and printed a pullback low at 84,013. Price is stalling around 84,050 into London open, with RSI(14) cooling to ~59.
What it said to watch
Holding the 84,013 pullback low keeps the Asian HL chain intact. A loss exposes the 83,840 shelf and the 50% Asia rally fib near 83,813.
A close above the 84,319 Asian high and the 84,348 prior high opens the path toward 85,000 and the 85,486 pce high.
A break of the 83,307 Asian low would resume the overnight lower-high sequence.
Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), ISM Manufacturing and Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read through yields.
06:32 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, stalling under resistance · RSI 74 · price 84,246.22
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, pressing the Asia high near London open.
The Asia rally lifted price roughly 1,000 off the 83,307 Asian low in a clean HH/HL chain. It cleared the 84,049 level that capped the faded soft-PCE spike, and price is now stalling at the 84,319 Asia high, just under yesterday's 84,348 prior high. RSI(14) is near 74 into the London open, firm but not extreme; the 84,115 swing low and the 83,619 higher low mark the rally's structure.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,348 prior high opens the 85,000–85,486 pce high zone where the post-PCE spike faded
Loss of the 84,115 swing low and the Asia trendline shifts focus to the 83,619 higher low and the 0.5–0.618 area of the Asia rally fib
Break below the 83,307 asia low would undo the entire Asia rally
Jobless claims (12:30 UTC), ISM Manufacturing and Waller (14:00 UTC), with yields near 2002 highs, could materially shift this read
Yesterday's soft-PCE spike to the 85486 PCE high faded under firm yields. Late in the Asia session, price held a double low near the 83307 Asian low and broke out of its 83300–83590 base. Ahead of London open it has cleared the cited 84049 level and is pressing the 84348 prior high, with RSI(14) near 74 and higher lows building at 84115.
Support: 84,115.00, 83,815.00, 83,307.00
Resistance: 84,348.00, 85,000.00, 85,486.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84348 prior high opens the 85000 round number, then the 85486 PCE high
Loss of the 84115 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 50% fib of the Asia rally near 83815
Return below the 83307 Asian low negates the double bottom
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
HH/HL chain off the Asia low, pressing the session high.
Late Asia session rallied about $970 off the 83,307 Asia low, clearing the 84,000 round number and printing a session high at 84,274, just under the 84,348 prior high from NY hours, with RSI(14) near 72. The 85,486 pce high set on the soft core PCE print faded as yields held firm, and the bounce is still well below it.
What it said to watch
Close above the 84,348 prior high opens the path back toward the 85,486 pce high
Failure to hold the 84,000 round number, then a break of the 83,619 higher low, ends the HH/HL chain
London open within the hour may test the session high
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Uptrend, RSI hot · RSI 74 · price 84,143.34
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, pressing yesterday's NY rebound high.
Late in the Asia session, BTC has rallied from the 83,307 Asian low to an 84,235 session high in a clean HH/HL chain, recovering part of yesterday's post-PCE fade from 85,486. RSI(14) is near 74. Price is just under the 84,348 prior high from yesterday's NY rebound, with the 83,840 breakout level and the rising Asia uptrend line below.
What it said to watch
Close back below the 83,840 breakout level undercuts the Asia uptrend read
Loss of the 83,619 swing low (near the 61.8% of the Asia rally) breaks the HH/HL chain
Close above the 84,348 prior high clears yesterday's NY rebound peak and opens the path to the 85,000 round number
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Break above Asian range, higher lows since 02:45 UTC.
BTC broke out of the 83,300–83,840 Asian range late in the Asia session and set a session high at 84,227, with RSI(14) near 73 and no divergence. Price now sits just under the 84,348 swing high from NY hours, which capped the rebound after the soft-PCE spike to the 85,486 PCE high fully reversed.
What it said to watch
Close above the 84,348 swing high opens the path toward the 85,486 PCE high
Failure to hold the 83,840 breakout level, near the 38.2% of the Asia rally, puts price back inside the prior range
Loss of the rally support line and the 83,307 Asian low negates the range break
London open shortly, then Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Prices Paid 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the Asian low, broken above the overnight 83300–83600 range.
Yesterday's soft-PCE spike to 85486 fully retraced to 83212 as the growth beats landed. Late in the Asia session, price has stepped up in higher lows from the 83307 asian low, cleared the 83840 breakout area and is approaching the 84348 swing high with RSI(14) near 77.
Support: 83,840.00, 83,620.00, 83,307.00
Resistance: 84,348.00, 85,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84348 swing high opens the path toward the 85000 round number
Close back below the 83840 breakout level returns price to the overnight range
Break of the 83620 higher low ends the HL chain; the 83307 asian low is next below
London open shortly; Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC with Waller could materially shift this read
05:07 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the Asia low · RSI 67 · price 83,999.49
Higher lows from 83307; overnight range top broken.
Asia session climbed about 800 off the 83307 asian low, cleared the overnight range top near 83754 and printed a session high at 84104, with price now holding near 84000 and RSI(14) around 67. The prior high at 84348 from the NY bounce sits above. Yesterday's soft-PCE spike to 85486 fully reversed as the growth beats came through.
Support: 83,754.00, 83,619.00, 83,307.00
Resistance: 84,104.00, 84,348.00
What it said to watch
Hold above the 83754 range top keeps the Asia rally intact; a close back below returns price to the overnight range
Loss of the 83619 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain toward the 83307 asian low
Acceptance above the 84104 session high exposes the 84348 prior high; rejection there leaves a lower high versus the post-PCE spike
Asia rally fib 50% near 83706 sits just under the range top, so the two levels form one support area
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55 / 72.3), along with Waller, could materially shift this read via USD and yields; jobless claims come out at 12:30 UTC
04:47 UTC
Intraday recovery from Asia lows, testing mid-range · RSI 66 · price 83,840.67
Double bottom at 83,307–83,316 broken above the 83,590 neckline; higher lows since 02:45 UTC.
BTC spiked to 85,486 on the soft core PCE print, then fully reversed. The selloff found a post-pce low at 83,212, and the 84,348 swing high capped the rebound. Late Asia session has broken out of an 83,307–83,590 double bottom and is now testing the 50% retracement near 83,840, just below the pre-data high at 83,933.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,933 pre-data high clears the 61.8% retracement and opens the path to the 84,348 swing high
Loss of the 83,619 pullback low breaks the higher-low trend off the Asian low
Break back below the 83,307 asian low negates the double bottom and puts the 83,212 post-pce low in play
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid (14:00 UTC) could materially reset this range
04:32 UTC
Recovering from NY sell-off, lower-high sequence being tested · RSI 64 · price 83,788.73
Asian double bottom at 83,307–83,316, late-Asia bounce through descending trendline.
The soft-PCE spike at 12:30 UTC to 85,486 was fully rejected during NY hours. Price then printed a run of lower highs down to an Asian double bottom at 83,307–83,316. The late-Asia bounce broke the descending trendline and is pressing the 83,837 session high, near the 50% fib of the NY decline, with RSI(14) near 64.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,837 session high and the 84,000 round number opens the 84,348 swing high, with the 61.8% fib at ~83,950 in between
Loss of the 83,619 micro low turns the bounce into another lower high and exposes the 83,307 Asian low
A break of the Asian low reopens the 83,212 post-PCE low
London open is under 3h away; claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Double bottom near 83307, Asian range broken higher, lower-high chain from 84348 snapped.
Late Asia session: BTC broke above the 83590 Asian high off a double btm at 83307 and cleared the descending trendline from the 84348 NY high. Price is now stalling at the 50% retrace of that decline, with the 83837 session high capping. That decline followed yesterday's soft-PCE spike to 85486, which fully unwound during NY hours.
Support: 83,590.00, 83,307.00, 83,212.00
Resistance: 83,837.00, 84,000.00, 84,348.00
What it said to watch
Return below the 83590 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
M15 close above the 83837 session high and 50% retrace opens the 84000 round number and the 84348 ny high
Failure at the 83307 double btm exposes the 83212 ny low
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:06 UTC
Range break higher after post-PCE fade · RSI 58 · price 83,673.85
Asian range high broken, lower-high chain from NY under test.
The soft core PCE spike to 85,486 was fully rejected within two hours, and NY then printed lower highs into a 83,307–83,590 Asian range. Late in the Asia session price broke the asian high toward 83,690, with RSI(14) near 58. The late-ny high at 83,754, which also sits at the 23.6% level of the pce spike fib, is the first cap overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 83,754 late-ny high exposes 84,348, the 50% fib of the pce spike and post-PMI bounce high
Slip back below the 83,590 asian high turns the range break into a false break and reopens the 83,307 asian low
Loss of 83,307 brings the 83,212 pce low back into play
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing with Prices Paid (14:00 UTC), alongside Waller, could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Post-PCE fade, basing late Asia · RSI 59 · price 83,598.93
Lower highs into flat 83300 floor, line just broken.
The soft core PCE spike to 85486 fully reversed during NY to the 83212 post-pce low. Asia then printed lower highs into a flat 83307 asian low. The 03:30 UTC bar broke that lower-highs line and is pressing the 83633 asian high and the EMA50 near 83600, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 83,480.00, 83,307.00, 83,212.00
Resistance: 83,633.00, 83,754.00, 83,934.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83633 asian high opens the 83705 fib 38.2% and the 83754 swing high, with the 83934 pre-pce high beyond
A move back below the 83480 broken line restores the lower-highs read and brings the 83307 asian low back into focus
Loss of 83307 exposes the 83212 post-pce low
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55 / 72.3), could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 84348, lows compressing above 83212 inside the Asian range.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC drove a spike to 85486 that fully reversed into NY hours down to the 83212 ny low. The bounce stalled at the fib 50% near 84348, and the chart has printed lower highs since, including the 83754 swing high. The Asia session is compressing in 83307–83590 (asian low to asian high) under the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 83,307.26, 83,212.36
Resistance: 83,589.94, 83,753.76, 84,348.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83307 asian low exposes the 83212 ny low
Close above the 83590 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the 83754 swing high next
Recovery through the 84348 fib 50% negates the post-PCE fade
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC (17:00 broker) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 84348; Asian range 83307–83590 being tested at its base.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked BTC to 85486 before a full reversal to the 83212 post-PCE low. The 84348 bounce has since bled into a chain of lower highs capped by the falling trendline, now near 83465. Mid Asia session, price is sitting just above the 83307 Asian low with RSI(14) at 42, below 78.6% of the post-PCE bounce fib.
Support: 83,307.00, 83,212.00, 82,922.00
Resistance: 83,465.00, 83,590.00, 83,754.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83307 Asian low exposes the 83212 post-PCE low, then the 82922 swing low
An M15 close above the trendline and the 83590 Asian high breaks the lower-high chain; 83754 swing high is next
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, with jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 84,348 bounce high; compressing at Asian low.
The soft-PCE spike to 85,486 fully unwound to the 83,212 pce low. The 84,348 bounce high stalled at the 50% fib, and price has since printed a chain of lower highs, including 83,754. Late in the Asia session, price sits near the asian low at 83,307 inside a tight 83,307–83,590 Asian range, with RSI(14) near 42 and below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 83,307 extends the lower-low sequence toward the pce low at 83,212
Loss of the pce low at 83,212 exposes the 82,922 swing low from the prior Asia session
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the asian high at 83,590 breaks the sequence, with the 83,754 lower high next and the 84,348 bounce high above that
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could reset the intraday range
Lower-high chain from 84348, pressing Asian range low.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss spiked BTC to 85486, but the move was rejected as the growth beats landed, dropping price to the 83212 post-pce low. The rebound stalled at 84348, the 50% fib of that move, and the lower-high chain under the descending trendline has since pushed price back to the 83316 Asian low. RSI(14) sits near 37 with no oversold extreme.
Support: 83,316.25, 83,212.36, 82,921.68
Resistance: 83,589.94, 83,803.71, 84,348.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83316 asian low exposes the 83212 post-pce low, then the 82922 24h low
A reclaim of the 83590 asian high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 83804 lower high is next above
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, with Waller speaking, could materially shift this read
Lower highs compressing onto flat lows near 83,320.
The soft-PCE spike to 85,486 fully unwound during NY hours, and the pce low at 83,212 has since been followed by a run of lower highs. Price sits mid-range inside the Asia session band between the 83,316 asian low and the 83,590 asian high, capped by the lower-highs trendline. RSI is neutral near 45.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 83,590 asian high breaks the sequence. The 83,754 swing high is the next reference above.
Failure to hold the 83,316 asian low exposes the 83,212 pce low.
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
The soft core PCE print spiked BTC to 85486. Growth beats unwound the move into the NY open, and it bottomed at the 83212 NY low. The rebound stalled at the fib 50% near 84348, and lower highs since then have pressed price into a tight Asian range between the 83316 asian low and the 83590 asian high, with price sitting on the lower-high trendline.
Support: 83,316.00, 83,212.00
Resistance: 83,590.00, 83,754.00, 84,348.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83590 asian high and the lower-high trendline would break the sequence of lower highs and expose the 83754 prior high
Failure to hold the 83316 asian low reopens the 83212 NY low
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:05 UTC
Post-PCE spike unwound, lower highs since 16:15 UTC · RSI 40 · price 83,459.09
Descending highs against flat lows near 83200–83350, early Asian range.
The 12:30 UTC PCE spike to 85486 was fully unwound within two hours. Price has since carved lower highs from the 84348 lower high while lows hold the 83212–83347 band. Early Asia session trade sits inside an 83316–83590 Asian range, near 78.6% of the post-PCE bounce fib, with RSI(14) around 40.
Support: 83,316.25, 83,212.36, 82,921.68
Resistance: 83,589.94, 84,348.11
What it said to watch
A close below the 83316 asian low exposes the 83212 post-pce low
Failure at 83212 breaks the flat-lows read and brings the 82922 24h low into play
A close above the lower highs line and the 83590 asian high shifts focus to the 83753 swing high
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55 / 72.3) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 16:15 UTC bounce; Asia compressing in 83316–83590.
The soft core PCE spike to 85486 fully unwound to the pce low at 83212. The bounce stalled at the 50% fib near 84348, and price has since printed lower highs along a descending trendline. Asia session is compressing between the asian low at 83316 and the asian high at 83590, with RSI(14) near 37 and price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 83,316.25, 83,212.36, 82,921.68
Resistance: 83,589.94, 83,753.76, 84,348.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 83590 and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 83754 lower high is next overhead
Failure to hold the asian low at 83316 exposes the pce low at 83212, then the day low at 82922
Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing with Prices Paid (14:00 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into Asia · RSI 41 · price 83,465.08
Lower highs and lower lows off the 84348 swing high; tight Asian range 83316–83590.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked BTC to 85486, then the move fully reversed to the pce low at 83212. Since the 84348 swing high the chart has printed lower highs through the NY session, and Asia is holding a tight range between the 83316 session low and the 83590 session high. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 41, pressing the descending lower-highs line.
Support: 83,316.25, 83,212.36, 82,921.68
Resistance: 83,589.94, 83,753.76, 84,348.11
What it said to watch
A close above the 83590 session high and the 83754 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 83316 session low exposes the 83212 pce low, then the 82922 swing low
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, with Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Short-term down, lower highs since NY · RSI 41 · price 83,463.08
Post-PCE spike fully retraced; lower highs compressing into Asian range.
The soft core PCE print spiked BTC to 85,486 at 12:30 UTC. The move fully reversed into the 83,212 NY low, and the bounce stalled at the 50% fib near 84,348. Since then a descending trendline of lower highs has pressed price into a tight 83,316–83,549 Asian range, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 83,549 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 83,753 late NY high next
Failure to hold the 83,316 asian low exposes the 83,212 NY low; a break there confirms a lower low toward the 82,921 swing low
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55 / 72.3) could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence under descending trendline; Asia session pressing the 83,316 low.
The soft core PCE print drove a spike to 85,486 that fully reversed within the hour. The rebound was rejected at the 50% fib near 84,348, and price has printed lower highs under a descending trendline since. Early Asia session is holding the 83,316 asia low just above the 83,212 pce low, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,212 pce low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82,922 day low
Close above the descending trendline and the 83,549 asia high challenges the downtrend read; the 83,754 lower high sits above that
Recovery through the 84,348 50% fib would negate the post-PCE rejection
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, with Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 84348 bounce high.
The core PCE miss at 12:30 UTC spiked BTC to 85486 before a full rejection to the 83212 post-PCE low. Since the 84348 bounce high, price has printed lower highs and lower lows along a descending trendline, with a fresh session low at 83316 early in Asia. Price now sits near the 78.6% retrace of the 82922–85486 leg, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 83,316.25, 83,212.36, 82,921.68
Resistance: 83,753.76, 84,348.11
What it said to watch
A break below the 83316 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 83212 post-PCE low
Failure at 83212 exposes yesterday's 82922 Asia low
An M15 close above the 83754 prior high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high read
A recovery through the 84348 bounce high would neutralise the post-PCE downtrend
Jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid (14:00 UTC) could reset the intraday range
00:32 UTC
Downtrend since the post-PCE spike rejection · RSI 34 · price 83,371.19
Lower highs under a falling trendline, testing session low.
The soft core PCE print drove a spike to 85,486 at 12:30 UTC that was fully rejected within two hours. Since then the falling trendline has capped price, with the bounce high at 84,348 followed by a lower high at 83,754. Early Asia session is now pressing the 83,316 session low with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR around 130 USD, and the 83,212 pce low sits just beneath.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,212 pce low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82,922 day low (London low)
Close above the 83,754 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 84,348 bounce high is the next reference
Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs into a 83350–83750 range, testing range low in early Asia.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC drove a pce spike to 85486 that was fully rejected within the hour, with the drop bottoming at the post-pce low of 83212. Since the 84348 swing high, price has printed lower highs along a descending trendline into a late-NY/Asia 83350–83750 range and now sits on the range low, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 83,350.00, 83,212.36, 82,921.68
Resistance: 83,750.00, 84,348.11, 85,485.86
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83350 range low exposes the 83212 post-pce low, then the 82922 london low
Reclaim of the 83750 range high breaks the descending trendline of lower highs; 84348 swing high is the next marker above
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid vs 72.3 f/c (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
00:05 UTC
Sideways after failed PCE spike, lower highs since 84348 · RSI 45 · price 83,505.04
Range 83347–83754 inside a fade from the 84348 lower high.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss spiked BTC to 85486. Strong growth data then drove a full rejection to the 83212 PCE low, and a rebound stalled at the 84348 lower high. Since the 83347 swing low, price has been ranging 83347–83754 through late NY into the Asia open. The range top sits near the 38.2% retrace of that fade, the session low at 83422 is holding for now, and RSI(14) is around 45.
Support: 83,422.00, 83,347.00, 83,212.00
Resistance: 83,754.00, 84,348.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83347 swing low breaks the range and exposes the 83212 PCE low
Acceptance above the 83754 range top (38.2% retrace) reopens the 84348 lower high
Loss of the 83422 session low early in Asia puts the range floor back in play
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read