19:08 UTC
Recovering from bear phase, momentum building · RSI 66 · price 83,809.70
Range break from Q3 base, higher low at 74.9K, testing 38.2% fib.
The corrective bear phase from the 126,174 all-time high in October 2025 ended at the 57,741 cycle low in late June 2026, after a Q3 base between roughly 58K and 67K. The mid-August range break reclaimed the W1 EMA(50), now near 80,760 and flattening, and the 74,902 swing low set a higher low on the rising trendline. Price is pressing the 38.2% retracement of the decline near 83,900, just under the 87,273 prior high, with the soft 29K NFP print adding a dovish rates tailwind; the 91,957 fib 50% and the 97,709 jan high sit above.
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above the 87,273 prior high extends the recovery toward the 91,957 fib 50%
- Weekly close back below the ema50 near 80,760 puts the August range break in question
- Loss of the 74,902 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence
- ISM Services PMI on Mon Oct 5 and FOMC Minutes on Wed Oct 7 could materially shift the rates backdrop behind this read
- The 97,709 jan high is the last lower high from the decline; only a move through it reverses the post-ATH structure