Higher lows off 84839 day low, capped near 61.8% fib.
The ISM Services release at 14:00 UTC (prices paid 74) produced an ism spike to 86555. It failed below the Asian high, then flushed to an 84839 day low. The late-NY recovery stalled at the 85942 swing high, just above the 61.8% fib, and price has since slipped under the recovery line. It now sits just below the 50% fib at 85697 into the Asia open, with the 85577 swing low next and the 85286 asian low below.
Support: 85,577.00, 85,286.00, 84,839.00
Resistance: 85,697.00, 85,942.00, 86,555.00
What it said to watch
A break of the 85577 swing low ends the higher-low chain off the day low
A close back above the 85942 swing high would reclaim the 61.8% fib and the recovery line
Fed's Williams/Bowman on Tue (13:05/14:45 UTC) and FOMC Minutes on Wed could reprice the USD and shift this read
23:33 UTC
Recovery from day low, momentum flattening · RSI 58 · price 85,796.51
Higher-low grind off 84,839; stalling at 61.8% fib.
The 14:00 UTC ISM bar spiked to 86,555 and reversed sharply as Prices Paid at 74 revived inflation concerns, bottoming at the 84,839 day low; since then a steady higher-low chain has carried price back into the 61.8% retracement of that drop, where the 85,942 late high was rejected after NY close. Price sits on the rising trendline from the day low, just above the 85,707 late low (near the 50% fib), with RSI(14) ~57 and still inside the Asian range.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,942 late high and the 86,000 round number clears the 61.8% fib and opens the path toward the 86,555 ism spike high
Loss of the rising trendline and the 85,707 late low breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 85,577 swing low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tuesday, then FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, could materially shift this read via USD and yields
23:18 UTC
Recovery from NY low, stalling at fib · RSI 55 · price 85,731.59
Higher lows since 84,838, capped below 86,555 NY high.
The ISM Services prices-paid print of 74 hit the 14:00 UTC bar. It reversed the NY-open pop to 86,555 (the NY high) and drove a slide to the 84,838 day low. The late-NY grind built higher lows into a rejection at 85,942, the 61.8% fib of that drop, and price now sits on the rising trendline near 85,710 with EMA20/50 just below.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the trendline near 85,710 and the 85,520 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 84,838 day low
Acceptance above 85,942 (61.8% fib) reopens the 86,369 london high and 86,555 ny high
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tuesday could reprice hike odds and shift this read
23:05 UTC
Short-term recovery, stalling at the 61.8% retrace · RSI 66 · price 85,826.48
Higher lows off the NY low, capped near 85,900 in late NY/early Asia.
The 14:00 UTC ISM Services print spiked BTC through the london high at 86,369 to 86,555. The false break unwound to the 84,839 ny low as Prices Paid at 74 and a firm USD weighed. The post-NY recovery built higher lows into the fib 61.8 at 85,902, where the advance stalled and slipped under the recovery trendline. RSI(14) is near 66.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 85,902 (fib 61.8) clears the recovery high and exposes the 86,139 range high
Loss of the 85,747 swing low, then the 85,577 higher low, would end the higher-low sequence off the ny low
Re-acceptance above the recovery trendline would restore the rising-lows read
Tue ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman (13:05/14:45 UTC) could reprice USD and shift this read
22:48 UTC
Recovery leg after NY sell-off, momentum firm · RSI 74 · price 85,851.45
HH/HL chain off the 84,839 NY low, now testing the 61.8% retrace of the ISM drop.
The ISM-hour spike to the 86,555 ism high was rejected hard, with firm prices paid and a stronger USD weighing, and price slid to an 84,839 NY low. Late NY hours have since produced a steady higher-low grind along a rising trendline back to the 61.8% fib of that drop near 85,902, with RSI(14) around 74 and price still below the london high.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 85,902 (61.8% fib) clears the retracement cap and opens the london high at 86,370, then the ism high at 86,555
A break of the 85,747 higher low and the rising trendline ends the HH/HL recovery and exposes the asia low near 85,290
Loss of 85,290 reopens the 84,839 ny low
Tue ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman could reset the read; Wed FOMC Minutes is the larger risk
22:33 UTC
Recovery from NY low, testing fib resistance · RSI 52 · price 85,820.49
Higher-low chain off 84,839 day low, below 86,555 NY high.
Around the ISM release, the NY spike to the 86,555 ny high was rejected as the USD firmed on 74 prices paid, dropping price through the asian low to an 84,839 day low. Since then a steady higher-low grind above a rising trendline has stalled at the 61.8% fib of that drop near 85,900, late after NY close, with the 85,577 pullback low the nearest higher low.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 85,900 (61.8% fib) opens the 86,140 range top, then the 86,555 ny high
Break of the rising trendline and the 85,577 pullback low ends the higher-low sequence; asian low 85,286 then day low 84,839 next
ADP and Fed's Williams/Bowman Tue, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:18 UTC
Recovery from NY low, higher lows · RSI 70 · price 85,855.45
HL chain from 84,839 capped by the 61.8% fib.
The 14:00 UTC ISM spike to the 86,555 ism high was rejected. Prices Paid at 74 and a firmer USD drove a slide through the 85,286 Asian low to the 84,839 NY low, a false break that has since been reclaimed. Late-NY higher lows have carried price into the 61.8% fib near 85,900 with RSI(14) at about 70, while the 86,140 range top from the London-NY transition sits overhead as Asia session opens.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 85,900 puts the 86,140 range top back in play
Break of the 85,577 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline from the NY low
Loss of the 85,286 Asian low reopens the 84,839 NY low
Tue ADP at 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read
22:06 UTC
Intraday recovery, grinding higher after NY sell-off · RSI 74 · price 85,869.43
Higher-low chain from the 84839 session low, now at the 61.8% retrace of the ISM drop.
The ISM Services release at 14:00 UTC (prices paid 74) printed the 86555 ism high. A firmer USD and Euro debt stress then drove a rejection of roughly 1,700 dollars to the 84839 session low. Since then a steady higher-low chain along the recovery trendline has carried price into early Asia at the 61.8% fib near 85900, with RSI(14) at 74, hot but not extreme.
Support: 85,577.00, 85,290.00, 84,839.00
Resistance: 85,899.00, 86,369.00, 86,555.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 85899 (61.8% fib) opens the 86369 london high, with the 86555 ism high beyond
A break of the recovery trendline and the 85577 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Failure at 85290, the asia low, exposes the 84839 session low
Thin early-Asia liquidity. Tue ADP at 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC are the next scheduled risks, ahead of Wed FOMC Minutes
21:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, grinding higher off NY low · RSI 69 · price 85,787.52
HH/HL chain since 16:15 UTC low, pressing late ny high.
The NY spike to 86555 around the ISM release was rejected, with the drop running through the asia low to the 84839 ny low as USD firmed on euro debt stress. Since then BTC has built a steady HH/HL chain off the ny low, latest higher low at 85577. Price is testing the late ny high at 85810, between the 50% and 61.8% fib retracement of that drop, with the session range winding down after the NY close.
Support: 85,577.00, 85,290.00, 84,839.00
Resistance: 85,810.00, 86,370.00, 86,555.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 85810 late ny high and the 61.8% fib near 85900 opens the 86370 morning high
Loss of the 85577 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the HH/HL chain, exposing the asia low at 85290
Rejection at 85810 alongside RSI(14) near 70 would mark a lower high below the 86555 ny spike
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) and continued USD strength on euro stress could materially shift this read
21:33 UTC
Recovering from NY selloff, momentum muted · RSI 56 · price 85,676.65
Higher-low chain off the 84,839 NY low, capped at 85,750.
The spike to the 86,555 ISM high around 14:00 UTC was fully rejected, and the slide ran to the 84,839 NY low as the dollar firmed on Eurozone debt stress. Since then a steady higher-low chain along a rising trendline has lifted price to the 50% fib near 85,697, with the 85,750 late NY high capping so far. RSI(14) sits mid-50s and the Asia handover is quiet.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,750 late NY high opens the 61.8% fib at 85,899, then the ISM high at 86,555
Break of the rising trendline and the 85,577 higher low turns focus to the 38.2% fib at 85,494, then the NY low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tuesday are the next scheduled risk; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger catalyst
21:18 UTC
Intraday recovery after NY sell-off, momentum flattening · RSI 62 · price 85,650.68
Higher lows off 84,840 session low, capped at 85,750 recent high.
The NY-open spike to the 86,555 ny high on the ISM Services release (prices paid 74, firm USD) failed above the London high. Price then reversed to an 84,840 session low beneath the 85,290 asian low and has since ground back above it. The rebound is stalling at the 85,750 recent high, near the 50% fib of the NY sell-off, and has slipped just under the rebound line after NY close, with RSI(14) around 62.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,750 recent high reopens the 86,000–86,555 ny high zone
Loss of the 85,520 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 85,290 asian low, then the 84,840 session low
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read alongside Eurozone-driven USD strength
Higher-low chain off 84838 session low, stalling at 50% fib under 85750.
The NY-session ISM spike was rejected at the 86555 post-ISM high. Price then swept the 85290 Asia low and printed an 84838 session low as USD firmed on Eurozone stress. Since then a steady higher-low grind has retraced to the 50% fib near 85700, with price stalling under the 85750 swing high and sitting on the rising trendline. The current bar falls after NY close.
Support: 85,520.00, 85,290.00
Resistance: 85,749.57, 86,554.68
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85750 swing high opens the fib 61.8 near 85900
Close below the rising trendline and the 85520 higher low ends the recovery structure, exposing the 85290 Asia low
Loss of the 84838 session low resumes the post-ISM decline
Fed's Williams/Bowman Tue and FOMC Minutes Wed could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 84,838; at 50% retrace, inside Asian range.
The ISM spike to 86,554 in early NY hours was rejected into a slide to the 84,838 session low as the USD firmed on Eurozone debt stress. Late NY has produced a steady higher-low grind along a rising trendline back to the 50% retracement near 85,697. Price sits inside the Asian range of 85,286–86,866.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 85,520 higher low ends the late-NY recovery structure
Acceptance above the 85,724 late-NY high and then the fib 61.8 at 85,900 reopens the ISM spike high at 86,554
Loss of the 85,286 Asian low re-exposes the 84,838 session low
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue are the next macro risk to this read
Higher-low chain off 84839, capped at 50% retrace.
The spike to the 86555 ISM high around the 14:00 UTC print was rejected. Price flushed to an 84839 session low by 16:00 UTC as the USD firmed on Euro debt stress. The late-NY recovery has printed steady higher lows along the rising lows line and is stalling at the 50% fib, with the 85705 recovery high capping.
Support: 85,520.00, 85,286.00, 84,839.00
Resistance: 85,705.00, 85,900.00, 86,555.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 85705 recovery high and the 85900 61.8% fib reopens the 86555 ISM high
A break of the 85520 higher low and the rising lows line ends the recovery sequence, exposing the 85286 asian low and then the 84839 session low
No scheduled US data in the next 8h. Fed's Williams/Bowman on Tue and FOMC Minutes on Wed are the next macro risk, alongside Euro debt headlines
20:18 UTC
Intraday recovery after NY sell-off, momentum flattening · RSI 56 · price 85,596.73
Higher-low chain off 84839 session low, capped near 50% retrace.
BTC was rejected at the 86555 ny high around the ISM Services release (prices paid 74), and a firmer USD pushed the drop through the 85290 asian low to an 84839 session low. Late NY has since built a steady higher-low chain back toward the 50% fib of that drop near 85700. Price sits above the ema20 but just under EMA50 and the 85670 rebound high.
Support: 85,290.00, 84,839.00
Resistance: 85,670.00, 85,899.00, 86,555.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85670 rebound high and the 50% fib near 85700 opens the 61.8% fib at 85899
Break of the rising tl and ema20 near 85500 ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 85290 asian low
Loss of the 84839 session low resumes the NY-session decline
Firmer USD on Euro debt stress remains the backdrop into Tuesday's Fed speakers (Williams 13:05, Bowman 14:45 UTC)
Higher lows off 84839 day low, capped at 85670 prior high.
The 14:00 UTC ISM Services spike to 86555 was rejected. The drop swept the Asia low at 85290 and ran to a day low at 84839 as USD firmed on Euro debt stress. The late-NY recovery has stalled at the 85670 prior high just under the 50% fib, with the recovery line from 85100 and the 85534 swing low below.
Support: 85,534.00, 85,290.00, 84,839.00
Resistance: 85,670.00, 85,900.00, 86,555.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 85670 prior high clears the 50% fib and opens the 85900 61.8% fib, then the 86555 ism high
Close below the recovery line and the 85534 swing low points back toward the 85290 asia low
Loss of the 84839 day low resumes the lower-low sequence from the ism high
19:48 UTC
Intraday down, corrective bounce in late NY · RSI 53 · price 85,548.79
Lower high at 86,555 and session low at 84,839; higher-low chain since 16:15 UTC.
The NY-open spike to the 86,555 ny spike hi around ISM Services (prices paid 74) was rejected and sold to an 84,839 session low as USD firmed. Late NY has since printed a higher-low chain off that low. The bounce stalled at the 85,670 rebound high just under the 50% retrace, with price sitting on the 38.2% fib and RSI(14) neutral near 53.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,670 rebound high opens the 61.8% fib at 85,899, then the 86,555 ny spike hi
Loss of the rising line and the 85,302 higher low exposes the 84,839 session low
No scheduled USD data in the next 8h; European debt headlines and USD strength remain the live risk, with Fed's Williams and Bowman due Tue
19:33 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a broader NY sell-off · RSI 55 · price 85,579.75
Higher-low chain off 84839 session low, stalling near 50% retrace.
The NY session reversed after the 14:00 UTC ISM Services print (prices paid 74). A rejection at the 86555 NY high fed a range break below the Asian low and a slide to the 84839 session low. Late in NY, a higher-low chain has lifted price into the 38.2–50% retrace of that drop, with the 85670 bounce high capping just under the 50% fib and EMA50.
Support: 85,429.00, 85,099.00, 84,839.00
Resistance: 85,670.00, 85,900.00, 86,555.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85670 bounce high and 50% fib opens the 85900 61.8% fib
Loss of the 85429 higher low, then the 85099 swing low, breaks the recovery trendline and exposes the 84839 session low
Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Recovering within a broader intraday drop · RSI 64 · price 85,539.80
Higher-low chain off the 84,839 session low, retesting the broken Asian low.
Late in the NY session, the ISM spike to 86,555 was fully rejected. Sticky Prices Paid at 74 and a firmer USD fed a flush through the 85,286 Asian low to an 84,839 session low. Since then, rising lows have carried price back above the Asian low to 85,540, just above the 38.2% retrace and below the 50% fib at 85,696.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 85,286 Asian low, or below the rising lows trendline, turns the reclaim into a failed retest
Acceptance above the 85,696 50% fib opens the 86,100–86,369 London high zone
Loss of the 85,099 higher low exposes the 84,839 session low
No US data in the next 8h; Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue, then FOMC Minutes on Wed, could reset this read
Lower high at 86,555, day low 84,839, higher lows since.
The ISM spike to 86,555 briefly broke the London high, then failed. The 86,119 flush origin gave way at 14:30 UTC and price fell through the Asian low to an 84,839 day low around London close. The Prices Paid 74 print and a firmer USD fit the move. Late NY hours have since built a higher-low chain back to the 38.2% fib near 85,494, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
What it said to watch
A close above the 50% fib at 85,697 opens the path back to the 86,119 flush origin
A break of the 85,099 higher low cracks the rising trendline and exposes the 84,839 day low
Failure to hold back above the 85,286 asian low returns the read to the post-ISM downtrend
No US data in the next 8h. Fed's Williams/Bowman (Tue) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next catalysts
18:49 UTC
Intraday recovery after NY sell-off, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 85,490.85
Higher lows off 84,839 NY low, testing 38.2% retrace.
The NY-open spike to 86,555 around the ISM release was rejected below the Asian high. ISM Prices Paid at 74 and a firmer USD then drove a break of the 85,286 asian low to a NY low at 84,839. Late NY has since built higher lows back above the asian low and ema20. Price sits at the 38.2% retrace near 85,494, capped so far by the 85,510 recovery high.
What it said to watch
Holding the 85,417 ema20 and rising trendline keeps the late-NY higher-low chain intact
An M15 close back below the 85,286 asian low turns the reclaim into a failed recovery, with the 84,839 ny low back in focus
Acceptance above the 85,510 recovery high and the 85,640 ema50 (50% fib at 85,697) opens the 85,899 fib 61.8 level
Tue Fed speakers Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) are the next scheduled USD risk; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC
18:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend, recovering off the lows · RSI 49 · price 85,423.93
ISM spike rejected into a break of the Asian low, higher lows forming since the 84,839 session low.
The 14:00 UTC ISM spike to the 86,555 NY high was rejected. Price then broke through the Asian low at 85,290 to an 84,839 session low as the sticky prices-paid read and a firm USD weighed. After London close, higher lows have lifted price back above the Asian low and EMA20 (~85,410), into a retest of the 85,476 swing high just under the 38.2% fib.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,476 swing high and 38.2% fib (~85,494) opens the 85,650 breakdown zone
Failure to hold the 85,290 Asian low, then the 85,099 higher low, breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 84,839 session low
A move back through the 85,650 breakdown would put the 86,555 NY high back in view
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, are the next USD catalysts
ISM spike rejected, Asia low broken; higher low off 84839 base.
An ISM Services spike to 86555 reversed within the hour as 74 prices paid firmed the USD. The drop broke the 85286 asia low and printed an ny low at 84839. The late-NY recovery off an 85100 base is now retesting the asia low, with price just under the ema20 and RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 85,286.00, 85,100.00, 84,839.00
Resistance: 85,366.00, 85,390.00, 85,622.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85366 bounce high and the ema20 near 85390 would reclaim the asia low and stall the downtrend read
38.2% fib at 85494 and the lower high at 85622 are the zone to watch for rejection or break
Loss of the 85100 base and the recovery line reopens the 84839 ny low
Fed's Williams/Bowman and ADP on Tue could shift this read ahead of Wed FOMC Minutes
18:06 UTC
Downtrend since NY open, bounce in progress · RSI 40 · price 85,292.07
Asian low broken in NY; rising lows off 84,839 now retesting it from below.
NY session reversed sharply after the ISM print (prices paid 74), falling from 86,555 through the 85,286 Asian low to an 84,839 session low. Late NY has built rising lows back into the broken Asian low, with price capped there and below the ema20 near 85,400.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,286 asian low and 85,400 ema20 reclaims the broken level; the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off at ~85,494 and the 85,622 lower high come next
Break of the 85,099 higher low undoes the rising lows and re-exposes the 84,839 session low
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue, ahead of Wed FOMC Minutes, could shift the USD read and this structure
NY reversal broke the Asian and London lows; micro higher lows off 84839, capped below the Asian low.
The NY-open spike to 86555 around the ISM Services release, with prices paid at 74, was rejected hard. Price then broke the London low at 85640 and the Asian low at 85286, and printed a session low at 84839 against a firmer USD. Late-NY trade is a tight, higher-low drift off the micro base at 85128. It is capped at the 85244 bounce high and still below the Asian low, only ~20% into the NY drop fib, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 85,128.00, 84,838.57
Resistance: 85,244.00, 85,286.00, 85,640.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 85286 asian low, then the 85244 bounce high, shifts the read to a deeper retracement of the NY drop fib toward the 38.2% near 85495 and the london low at 85640
Loss of the 85128 micro base exposes the 84839 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tue, ahead of Wed FOMC Minutes, could reprice USD and shift this read
Lower high 86555, lower low 84839; first higher low at 84979.
The 86555 NY spike around the ISM Services release (prices paid 74) was rejected as the USD firmed. Price then broke the 85638 london low and the 85290 asian low, reaching an 84839 session low. The late-NY bounce has stalled at 85244, the 23.6% of the NY selloff, below the broken asian low, with RSI(14) near 37 recovering from oversold.
Support: 84,979.00, 84,839.00
Resistance: 85,290.00, 85,454.00, 85,638.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 85290 asian low brings the 85454 lower high and 38.2% fib (~85494) into play
Failure to hold the 84979 higher low exposes the 84839 session low
Reclaim of the 85638 london low, near the 50% fib, would neutralise the downtrend read
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY reversal from 86554; Asian range low broken.
NY session reversed around the ISM release. A spike to the NY high at 86554 was rejected, and price broke the asian low at 85286 to a session low of 84838 as the firm USD and hot prices-paid read weighed. The late-NY bounce is stalling under 85290, below the NY downtrend line, with RSI(14) at 39.
Support: 85,000.00
Resistance: 85,286.00, 85,650.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 85286 asian low reclaims the broken range floor; the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off sits near 85494
Loss of the 85000 round number and the 84838 session low extends the lower-low sequence
London low near 85650 is the next cap above. The NY downtrend line from the 86554 NY high still defines the lower highs
Asia session liquidity is thin ahead of Fed's Williams/Bowman on Tue and FOMC minutes on Wed, which could shift this read
17:08 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs and lower lows through NY · RSI 38 · price 85,143.23
London range broken lower after the ISM whipsaw; late-NY bounce stalling below the broken Asian low.
Around the 14:00 UTC ISM release, BTC spiked above the London range top to 86,554 and reversed within 30 minutes, with hot prices paid (74) and a firm USD in the background. The drop cut through the London low at 85,638 and the 85,286 Asian low to a session low at 84,838; the after-London-close bounce is stalling under the broken Asian low, with RSI(14) near 38.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 84,838 session low and the 85,000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the 85,286 Asian low shifts the read toward a retrace into the 85,638 London low, which sits close to the 50% of the NY drop fib
Lower highs from the 86,866 Asian high to the 86,554 NY high cap the structure while intact
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tue are the next scheduled USD catalysts
Lower highs from 86866; NY broke the Asia low, fresh low at 84839.
NY session reversed sharply after the ISM release. A spike to the ism high at 86555 was rejected, and hot prices paid (74) plus a firm USD drove price through the asia low at 85290 to a session low of 84839. RSI(14) is near 33 with price below both EMAs, and the lower-highs line from the 86866 Asia peak remains intact.
Support: 85,000.00, 84,838.57
Resistance: 85,290.00, 85,640.00, 86,554.68
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 84839 session low extends the lower-low sequence; the 85000 round number is the first test
A reclaim of the asia low at 85290 would mark the NY break as a false break
Recovery above the london low at 85640, near the 50% fib of the ism drop, invalidates the downside-leg read
A close above the lower-highs line through 86555 negates the intraday downtrend
Fed's Williams and Bowman (Tue) and FOMC minutes (Wed) could shift this read via USD and yields
16:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since ISM · RSI 30 · price 84,993.40
Broke below Asian range after rejected ISM spike.
The ISM prices paid print (74) at 14:00 UTC drove a spike to the 86555 ism high that was fully rejected. The NY session then broke the 85286 asian low and printed a session low at 84839 on a firm USD. Price is sitting on the 85000 round number with RSI(14) near 30 and an unbroken lower-high sequence.
Support: 84,838.57, 84,500.00
Resistance: 85,286.08, 85,649.68, 86,554.68
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 84839 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 84500 psych level
Recovery back above the 85286 asian low, near the 38.2% of the ISM spike fib (~85495), would mark the breakdown as a false break
Acceptance above the 85650 ny open low neutralises the post-ISM selloff, with the 86555 ism high capping above
No scheduled USD data in the next 8h. Williams/Bowman speak Tue and FOMC minutes are due Wed 18:00 UTC.
Lower highs from 86,866 Asia peak; London range floor broken in NY.
Hot ISM prices paid (74) and a firm USD saw the first-hour NY spike to the 86,555 ISM high rejected. The reversal broke the London range floor at 85,650 and the 85,290 prior low. Price now sits at a fresh session low near 85,030 with RSI(14) at 34, and lower highs since the 86,866 Asia peak keep the intraday downtrend intact.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 85,027 session low exposes the 85,000 round number
Reclaim of the 85,290 prior low would mark the break as a false break
M15 close back above the 85,650 range floor (~38.2% fib) and the ~85,970 61.8% fib negates the downtrend read
Break above the lower highs line near 86,550 changes the structure
No scheduled USD events in the next 8h; Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue, then FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC
16:06 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 36 · price 85,124.26
Asian low broken, fresh 24h low at 85,057.
NY session spiked to the 86,555 ny high around the ISM release, then reversed hard, breaking the 85,286 asian low and setting a 85,057 session low. Every bounce since has been a lower high, and RSI(14) sits near 36. A firm USD on French debt stress and hot ISM prices paid (74) frame the drop.
What it said to watch
Close back above the 85,286 asian low would neutralise the range break
Close below the 85,000 round number extends the lower-low chain from the 85,057 session low
Recovery capped near 85,640 (london floor, fib 38.2) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Broad USD bid on European debt contagion remains the main external drag on this read
15:48 UTC
Intraday downtrend after failed ISM spike · RSI 38 · price 85,243.12
Lower low below Asian and London lows, weak bounce off session low.
The ISM-hour spike to the 86555 ism high briefly cleared the London range top, then reversed within two bars. Prices paid at 74 and a firm USD drove a roughly 1,500-point ISM drop through the london low and asian low to an 85057 session low. RSI(14) sits near 38 with price below both EMAs, and the 85286 asian low now caps the bounce.
Support: 85,057.33, 85,000.00
Resistance: 85,286.08, 85,637.69, 86,554.68
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 85286 asian low would mark the move below it as a false break
Reclaim of the 85638 london low, near the 38.2% of the ISM drop fib, negates the range-break read
Failure to hold the 85057 session low and the 85000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
No US calendar risk in the next 8h; USD tone from European debt stress remains the driver
15:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend after a rejected NY spike · RSI 37 · price 85,418.93
Lower highs from the Asia high; London range broken lower, price testing the swing low.
The ISM release (prices paid 74) drove a spike to the 86,555 NY high, above the London range top at 86,140, but it was fully rejected. The 14:30 UTC bar then cut through the range floor at 85,650. Price now sits on the 85,290 swing low, which matches the Asia-session low, with RSI(14) near 37, price under both EMAs, and a firm USD weighing.
What it said to watch
A failed hold of the 85,290 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 85,080 prior low from Sunday's range
An M15 close back above the 85,650 range floor and the 38.2% ny spike fib near 85,770 would turn the break into a false break
Supply along the lower highs line from 86,866 caps any recovery below 86,555
Further USD strength, with EUR/USD below 1.12 on French debt fears, keeps the macro drag in play into Fed speakers Tue
15:18 UTC
Intraday down leg after failed NY spike · RSI 38 · price 85,418.93
Lower highs from 86866; retesting the Asia low at 85290.
Around the ISM release, the NY open spiked through the London high to 86555, then failed. Prices paid at 74 and a firm USD sent BTC back through the 85640 London low to retest the 85290 Asia low. Highs keep stepping lower from the 86866 Asia-session peak, and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 85,290.00, 85,080.00
Resistance: 85,640.00, 86,555.00
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close below the 85290 Asia low exposes the 85080 Sunday low
Reclaiming the 85640 London low puts the 50% of the NY drop fib near 85920 back in view
A break above the lower-highs line and the 86555 NY spike high voids the down-leg read
Williams and Bowman Tue, then FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could shift USD and BTC sharply
15:06 UTC
Intraday down leg after failed NY spike · RSI 40 · price 85,457.89
NY false break above London range, now pressing the Asian low.
BTC spiked to the 86,554 ism high into the 14:00 UTC ISM release. The spike was rejected and price fell through the 85,640 London low to 85,290, as prices paid at 74 and a firm USD weighed. Price now sits just above the 85,286 Asian low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 40.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 85,286 Asian low extends the NY leg toward the 85,080 Sunday low
Recovery back above the 85,640 London low and the 50% retrace near 85,922 would undo the breakdown read
A move back through the 86,554 ism high reopens the 86,866 Asia session high
Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) is the next scheduled US risk; USD strength on French debt stress remains the backdrop
85,640–86,140 range since 09:15 UTC; ISM-window break above failed back inside.
The push through the 86,140 range top in the first hour of NY, around the ISM Services release, topped at the 86,555 spike high. It was fully rejected, and price is back near 86,000 at the 61.8% of the spike, just under EMA20, with a firm USD and risk-off tone as the backdrop. The range low at 85,650 held twice (09:15 and 13:30 UTC), while the 86,369 morning high and the 86,866 prior high from the overnight session sit overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 86,369 morning high and the 86,555 spike high negates the false break read
Failure to hold the 85,650 range low exposes the 85,286 swing low from the Asia session
USD and yield reaction to the ISM Services Prices Paid detail could still extend the move away from the range
14:18 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since early Asia · RSI 63 · price 86,419.83
Broke above the London range top at 86369 in early NY. Asia high at 86866 still overhead.
BTC lifted off the 85650 higher low during the 13:45–14:00 UTC PMI/ISM window. It cleared the 86369 London high and tagged a 86555 spike high, with RSI(14) near 63 and room before extremes. The fade from the 86866 Asia high has now retraced roughly 72%, and the higher-low chain from 85286 is intact.
Support: 86,369.00, 86,000.00, 85,650.00
Resistance: 86,555.00, 86,866.00, 87,000.00
What it said to watch
ISM Services and Prices Paid digestion: a hot print could reverse the spike back into the 85650–86369 London range
Failure to hold the 86369 London high on a retest puts the 86000 round number back in play
Break above the 86555 spike high exposes the 86866 Asia high and the 87000 psych level
M15 close below the 85650 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence
Range 85,650–86,370 since London open, lower highs below 86,866.
BTC has held a 85,650–86,370 range since London open, after the Asian-session drop from the 86,866 asian high to the 85,286 asian low. Buyers defended the range floor three times. The 13:45 UTC PMI spike stalled at 86,320, below the range top and near the 61.8% retrace, with ema20 near 85,960 underneath. A firm USD and debt-driven risk-off form the backdrop.
What it said to watch
ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55) prints on the current bar; a hot Prices Paid read could materially shift this read
Rejection at the 86,320 pmi high keeps price inside the range
M15 close above the 86,370 range top breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 86,866 asian high
Failure to hold ema20 near 85,960 puts the 85,650 range floor back in focus
A break of the range floor exposes the 85,286 asian low
Range 85640–86140 since London morning, testing lower half.
The Asia session flush to the 85286 asia low was retraced on a London open rally that capped twice at the 86370 prior high. Price has ranged between the 85640 session low and the 86140 range top since mid-London, with the session low retested at 13:30 UTC and holding near the rally fib 61.8% (~85700). Monday's firm USD and risk-off tone are capping BTC into the 14:00 UTC ISM Services print.
Support: 85,640.00, 85,286.00
Resistance: 86,140.00, 86,370.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85640 session low breaks the range and exposes the 85286 asia low
M15 close above the 86140 range top reopens the 86370 prior high
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55): a print above ~56.5 reviving hike talk could materially shift this read
Loss of the rally fib 61.8% near 85700 leaves the London-session advance largely retraced
Lower highs vs higher lows since the 05:15 UTC low.
The Asian session stretched to 86866, then reversed to an 85286 asian low. London has printed a series of lower highs at 86369 (london high), 86139 (prior high) and 86053 (lower high) against higher lows, coiling into an 85640–86140 consolidation. Into the NY open, price is pressing the rising trendline near 85740, just above the 85688 swing low, with RSI(14) around 44 as a firm USD and Europe debt risk-off cap bounces.
Support: 85,286.08
Resistance: 86,053.23, 86,139.14, 86,368.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85688 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the 85637 london low
Loss of the 85637 london low puts the 85286 asian low back in focus
Close above the 86053 lower high and the descending trendline opens the 86139 prior high and the 86369 london high
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:18 UTC
Sideways, range contracting · RSI 51 · price 85,934.36
Lower highs vs higher lows since London open.
The Asia session spike to 86,866 was fully faded to 85,286 by 05:15 UTC. London has since printed a lower high at 86,139 under the 86,369 london high, and a higher low at 85,689 above the 85,638 london low. Price is compressing on a flat EMA20 near 85,930 with RSI(14) neutral around 51, as a risk-off USD bid caps the pre-ISM tape.
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read; a hot print would land on an already bid USD
M15 close above the 86,139 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 86,369 london high back into view
Failure to hold the 85,689 higher low and the 85,638 london low ends the compression and reopens the 85,286 Asia low
13:07 UTC
Two-way, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 47 · price 85,808.50
Compression: lower highs vs higher lows off Asian low.
BTC was rejected at the 86,866 Asian high, and the London rebound stalled at 86,369. That leaves lower highs (latest swing high 86,139) against higher lows off the 85,286 Asian low. Late in London, price is compressing near the 50% fib of the London rally with RSI(14) neutral near 46, while a risk-off USD bid caps upside follow-through.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,139 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 86,369 london high is next
Loss of the 85,688 swing low and the 85,637 london low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 85,286 asian low
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) at the NY open could resolve the compression
Hold of the 61.8% fib near 85,700 keeps the higher-lows structure intact
12:48 UTC
Range after Asia fade, lower highs in London · RSI 46 · price 85,750.57
London range 85638–86139 with lower highs; price testing the range floor late London.
The Sunday-evening push to the 86866 24h high faded through Asia to the 85286 Asia low. The rebound stalled at 86369 equal highs, and London has since printed lower highs, with rejection at the 86139 London high. Price is back at 85690–85750, sitting on the 61.8% of the Asia rebound fib just above the London low, while the digest's risk-off USD bid weighs on BTC ahead of ISM.
Support: 85,637.69, 85,286.08
Resistance: 86,139.14, 86,368.88, 86,866.34
What it said to watch
A close below the 85638 London low breaks the London range and exposes the 85286 Asia low
A hold of the session low near the 61.8% fib keeps the range read intact
A recovery above the 86139 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 86369 equal highs back in play
S&P Composite PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) around the NY open could materially shift this read
Lower highs and higher lows since London low, range tightening into NY.
Asia faded the overnight push to the 86,866 asia high down to the 85,286 asia low. The London rebound was rejected twice at the 86,369 london high before sliding to the 85,638 london low. Since then price has tightened into lower highs and higher lows between the 85,785 swing low and the 86,139 range high, RSI(14) neutral near 47, as a firm USD on debt-stress headlines offsets post-NFP dovishness.
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 86,139 range high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 86,369 london high, then the 86,866 asia high
Failure to hold the 85,785 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain, opening the 85,638 london low and the 85,286 asia low
12:19 UTC
Range-bound, compressing after Asian sell-off · RSI 48 · price 85,987.30
Rising lows vs lower highs; coil between 85,785 and 86,139.
Sunday's squeeze to the asian high at 86,866 was unwound to 85,286 in Asia as a USD-bid, risk-off Monday tape weighed. The London-open rebound stalled at a double high near 86,369, and price now sits on flat EMA20/50 with RSI(14) at 48. It is coiling between the range low at 85,785 and the range high at 86,139, where rising lows meet lower highs, mid-way through the 38.2–50% retrace of the Asian drop.
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a hot Prices Paid print adds to the USD bid
M15 close above the range high at 86,139 breaks the lower highs line and brings the double high at 86,369 back into focus, then the asian high at 86,866
M15 close below the range low at 85,785 breaks the rising lows line and exposes the london low at 85,638, then the asian low at 85,286
12:07 UTC
Neutral, compressing after Asian sell-off · RSI 48 · price 86,053.23
Lower highs and higher lows contracting into a tight range, late London.
The Sunday-evening rally topped at the 86,866 Asian high, then gave way to an Asian sell-off to 85,286. Since then, lower highs (86,369 London high, 86,139 range top) and higher lows (85,638 London low, 85,786 range low) have pinned price near the 50% fib of that drop at about 86,076, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and EMA20/50 flat just below. This is a pre-ISM holding pattern on a USD-bid, risk-off tape.
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could break the compression; a hot Prices Paid would revive Fed-hike bets
An M15 close above the 86,139 range top and the lower-highs line opens a retest of the 86,369 London high
A break of the 85,786 range low and the higher-lows line exposes the 85,638 London low, then the 85,286 Asian low
Only a reclaim of the 86,866 Asian high would negate the Asian sell-off structure
11:48 UTC
Sideways, compressing after Asia swing · RSI 50 · price 85,942.35
Lower high / higher low contraction, 85,785–86,139 inner range.
London put in a lower high at 86,369 under the 86,866 asia high and a higher low at 85,638 above the 85,286 asia low. Price is now compressing in a 85,785–86,139 range into late London, pinned at the flat EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 85,950. With no BTC-specific news, the firm-USD, sovereign-debt risk-off tape is offsetting Friday's NFP miss.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,139 range high and the lower highs line puts the 86,369 london high back in play
Failure to hold the 85,785 range low exposes the 85,638 london low and the higher lows line
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could break the compression during the first hour of NY
Asia high at 86,866 and asia low at 85,286 frame the full session range; a break of either resets the structure
11:33 UTC
Sideways, recovering off Asia low · RSI 49 · price 86,036.25
London range 85,638–86,369 nested inside the Asia 85,286–86,866 swing; higher lows building beneath 86,140.
Asia session peaked at 86,866 (asia high) then faded to 85,286 (asia low). London has been capped twice at the 86,369 london high, and a higher low at 85,786 now has price back at the 50% retrace of that Asia decline near 86,076. RSI(14) near 49 and price pinned between EMA20 and EMA50 show no momentum, with USD strength on sovereign-debt stress the backdrop ahead of US PMIs.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,369 london high breaks the London range and reopens the 86,866 asia high
Loss of the 85,786 higher low, then the 85,638 london low, reasserts the Asia-session downswing toward the 85,286 asia low
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot Prices Paid print adds to the USD bid
Lower highs vs higher lows inside the Asian range.
Mid-London, BTC is compressing inside the Asian range of 85,286–86,866. Lower highs at the 86,369 london high and the 86,085 lower high face higher lows at the 85,286 asia low and the 85,638 swing low. Price sits near the 50% retrace of the Asia-London leg (~85,830), under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42, as a firm USD tape on sovereign-debt stress caps upside.
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (17:00 broker time) is the likely catalyst to break the compression
M15 close below the 85,638 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 85,286 asia low
M15 close above the 86,085 lower high and the descending trendline brings the 86,369 london high back into play
Asia high at 86,866 caps the range; acceptance above it breaks the consolidation read
11:07 UTC
Neutral after Asia reversal, compressing · RSI 50 · price 85,933.36
Lower highs and higher lows since the 86,866 Asia high; contracting consolidation mid-London.
Sunday's breakout from the 85,000–85,460 range stalled at the 86,866 Asia high. Since then price has compressed between lower highs and higher lows: the 86,368 London high capped price twice, and the 85,637 London low held just past the 61.8% fib of the 85,286–86,368 London leg. Price is now chopping just under the 86,000 round number, with RSI(14) near 50 and a firm USD tape offsetting post-NFP relief.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 86,368 London high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 86,866 Asia high back in play
Loss of the 85,637 London low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 85,286 Asia low
S&P PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) is about $193 per bar
Repeated failure at the 86,000 round number keeps price pinned below a flattening EMA20/50
Lower high at 86,369 and higher low at 85,638 inside the 85,286–86,866 Asia range.
The Asia spike to the 86,866 Asia high fully unwound to the 85,286 Asia low. London has since been rejected twice at the 86,369 London high, a lower high, and held a higher low at the 85,638 London low, leaving mid-London price compressed near 85,940 below both EMAs with RSI(14) ~46. With no BTC-specific news, the tape is trading the USD-bid, risk-off backdrop ahead of ISM Services.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,369 London high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 86,866 Asia high
Loss of the 85,638 London low shifts focus back to the 85,286 Asia low
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs (86,866 / 86,369) against higher lows (85,286 / 85,637), a contracting range.
Sunday evening's break of the 85,000–85,460 range ran to the 86,866 asia high, then faded to the 85,286 asia low. Since London open, price has been rejected twice at the 86,369 london high and set a higher low at the 85,637 london low, leaving a squeeze of lower highs and higher lows. Mid-London, price is recovering just under EMA20 as USD strength on sovereign-debt stress caps follow-through.
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), with S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 86,369 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 86,866 asia high
Failure to hold the 85,637 london low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 85,286 asia low back in play
10:18 UTC
Sideways, range contracting below overnight high · RSI 43 · price 85,911.39
Lower highs from 86,866, higher lows from 85,286; mid-London bounce.
Since the 86,866 Asian high, BTC has printed lower highs and higher lows. Early London was rejected twice at the 86,369 london high, then dropped to an 85,638 london low that held above the 85,286 asian low. Mid-London, price is drifting back toward the 86,000 round number with RSI(14) near 43 as broad USD strength on sovereign-debt stress caps follow-through.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,369 london high breaks the lower highs sequence and puts the 86,866 asian high back in view
Failure to hold the 85,638 london low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 85,286 asian low
Acceptance back above the 86,000 round number, where EMA20 sits, would ease the near-term pressure
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Contracting consolidation between 85,286 and 86,866; small double top at 86,369 has resolved lower.
BTC set the 86,866 Asian high, then slid to the 85,286 Asian low before London bounced it, but the London high at 86,369 rejected twice. That small double top sent price back to the 85,638 swing low, near the 61.8% fib of the 85,286–86,369 leg. The lower-highs line now caps a tightening consolidation, RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and price sits below both EMAs as a debt-driven USD bid weighs on risk.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,369 London high voids the double top and reopens the 86,866 Asian high
A break of the lower-highs line from 86,866 ends the contracting consolidation read
Loss of the 85,638 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 85,286 Asian low
S&P PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
09:48 UTC
Two-way, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 49 · price 85,852.45
London double top at 86369 broke its neckline; price mid-range above the 85638 London low.
The late-Sunday break of the 85000–85460 range ran to an 86866 Asian high, then sold to an 85286 swing low before London. London formed a double top at the 86369 London high and dropped to 85638 as the USD-bid, risk-off tape weighed. Price sits near 85850, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and a lower-highs line capping.
Support: 85,637.69, 85,286.08
Resistance: 86,368.88, 86,866.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85638 London low exposes the 85286 swing low
Reclaim of the 86369 London high voids the double top and tests the lower-highs line toward the 86866 Asian high
Bounce stalling at the 50–61.8% fib (86003–86089) keeps the London high-low leg intact
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), after the 13:45 S&P PMI, could materially shift this read
London double top at 86,369 broke its ~86,000 neckline; price testing the 61.8% retrace.
The overnight run topped at the 86,866 asia high, and London was rejected twice at the 86,369 london high. That completed a small double top, and the ~86,000 neckline gave way. Price is now holding the 85,638 swing low near the 61.8% London rally fib, and both EMAs sit overhead as a firm USD tape weighs on risk.
What it said to watch
A close below the 85,638 swing low exposes the 85,286 asia low
Reclaiming 86,000 and the 86,369 london high negates the double top
A break of the lower highs line from 86,866 shifts the structure
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), with USD near yearly highs, could materially shift this read
Lower high at 86369 under 86866 Asia high; London leg ~50% retraced.
Early London, BTC has rolled over from a double top at the 86369 London high, slipped back below the 86000 psych level and both EMAs, and has now retraced about 50% of the London leg (fib) from the 85286 Asia low, with RSI(14) at 39. The swing sits beneath the lower-high trendline from the 86866 Asia high, with the 85690 breakout base as the next shelf, while the USD-bid, risk-off tone from sovereign-debt stress weighs on the tape.
Support: 85,690.00, 85,286.00
Resistance: 86,000.00, 86,369.00, 86,866.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 85690 breakout base exposes the 85286 Asia low and the bottom of the Asian range
A move back above the 86000 psych level and the EMAs eases the pullback read
A close above the 86369 London high and the lower-high trendline negates the double top and reopens the 86866 Asia high
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), preceded by S&P Composite PMI at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:08 UTC
Rebound off Asia low, stalling under lower high · RSI 56 · price 86,071.21
Lower high at 86369 vs 86866 Asian high; London range 85915–86369 with rising lows.
After topping at the 86866 Asian high, BTC flushed to the 85286 Asian low. The early-London rebound was rejected twice at the 86369 London high, leaving a 85915–86369 range with price sitting on the 50% fib of the selloff. A firm USD on French debt stress is the headwind. RSI(14) is in the mid-50s.
Support: 85,915.38, 85,692.63, 85,286.08
Resistance: 86,368.88, 86,866.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86369 london high reopens the 86866 asian high
Break of the 85915 london low and the rising lows line exposes the 85693 breakout base
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
08:49 UTC
V-recovery from Asia low, stalling below session high · RSI 53 · price 86,128.15
Higher lows from 85286, compressing 86007–86369 in early London.
Asia ran from the Sunday-evening breakout to 86866, then gave it all back to 85286 by 05:15 UTC. The recovery stalled at the 61.8% retracement of that decline. Early London has capped twice at the 86369 session high while holding the 86007 London low, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and a firm USD on risk-off debt headlines acting as a headwind.
Support: 86,007.28, 85,673.65, 85,286.08
Resistance: 86,368.88, 86,866.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86369 session high opens the 86866 Asia high
Failure to hold the 86007 London low exposes the 85674 swing low and the 85286 Asia low
Holding above the 61.8% decline fib near 86263 keeps the recovery structure intact
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
08:33 UTC
V-shaped recovery off 05:15 UTC low, stalling · RSI 55 · price 86,347.91
Higher lows compressing beneath a twice-tested session high.
The overnight spike to the 86866 Asian high fully retraced to 85286 by 05:15 UTC. The 06:45 UTC impulse off the 85690 push base, just ahead of London open, lifted price back above the 61.8% fib at 86263. The 86369 session high has capped twice since, with higher lows off the 86007 swing low compressing price beneath it while USD stays firm.
Support: 86,263.00, 86,007.00, 85,690.00
Resistance: 86,369.00, 86,528.00, 86,866.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86369 session high exposes the 78.6% fib at 86528, then the 86866 Asian high
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 86263 and then the 86007 swing low reopens the 85690 push base
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 85286, capped at 61.8% retrace of Asia selloff.
The Asia selloff from the 86866 overnight high found a swing low at 85286. Price has since rebuilt a chain of higher lows (85674 pullback low, 86007 higher low) into early London, but the bounce is stalling at the 61.8% retrace near 86263. A double cap at 86369 has formed, with a firm USD and risk-off tone in the background.
Support: 86,007.00, 85,674.00, 85,286.00
Resistance: 86,369.00, 86,866.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86369 double cap opens the 78.6% retrace near 86528 and the 86866 overnight high
Loss of the 86007 higher low and the rebound line puts the 85674 pullback low back in focus
Break of the 85286 swing low resumes the Asia selloff structure
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
08:06 UTC
Rebounding inside a wide overnight range · RSI 60 · price 86,144.13
Lower high under 86,866; higher lows from 85,286 at London open.
Sunday's late break of the 85,000–85,460 range ran to the 86,866 asia high, then Asia gave most of it back to the 85,286 asia low. The London-open rebound stalled at the 86,369 london high near the 61.8–68% retracement of that drop. Price is consolidating above the 86,007 london low while a haven USD bid weighs on risk.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 86,007 london low exposes the 85,674 swing low and breaks the rising support line
Acceptance above the 86,369 london high reopens the 86,866 asia high and the 87,000 psych level
Loss of the 85,286 asia low would confirm a lower-low on this window
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Asian sell-off fully reversed into London open; higher lows since 05:15 UTC, testing 61.8% retrace.
The Sunday-evening run to the 86,866 Asia high was fully unwound into the 85,286 Asia low by 05:15 UTC, on a risk-off USD bid. A V-shaped rebound from the 06:45 UTC launch bar reclaimed 86,000 into London open. Price is now pressing the 61.8% retrace near 86,260 just under the 86,369 London high, with RSI(14) near 61 and not stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,369 london high opens a retest of the 86,866 asia high, below the digest's $87-88K cap
Failure back under the 86,007 london low puts the 85,693 launch bar low back in play
Loss of 85,286 asia low sets a lower low and invalidates the rebound
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; S&P Composite PMI 13:45 UTC
Asia lower high 86866 → 85286 low, higher low 85674 since.
The Asia session peaked at 86866, then fell to 85286. Price has since printed a higher low at 85674 and pushed through the 50% fib into London open, but met rejection at the 86368 london high, just above the 61.8% retracement of the Asia decline. The bounce comes as post-NFP softness meets Monday's haven USD bid, leaving price well short of the $87-88K cap.
Support: 86,076.00, 85,674.00, 85,286.00
Resistance: 86,368.00, 86,866.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86368 london high opens a retest of the 86866 asia high
Loss of the 50% fib at 86076 and the rising higher lows line from 85286 puts the 85674 higher low and the 85286 asia low back in play
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Asia session sell-off from 86,866 to 85,286, now a higher-low rebound into the 61.8% retrace.
Sunday's 84,825–85,460 range broke late in the day and ran to the Asia high at 86,866. Price then gave back the whole leg to the 85,286 Asia low as the USD firmed on French debt stress. The London open bar ran through the 85,936 pivot to a London high of 86,299, stalling at the 61.8% retracement with the 50% fib at 86,076 and a higher-low line from 85,286 underneath.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,299 London high clears the 61.8% retrace and exposes the 86,866 Asia high
Loss of the 50% fib at 86,076, then the 85,693 higher low, breaks the higher-low line and puts the 85,286 Asia low back in play
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
07:07 UTC
Rebounding after Asia selloff, momentum neutral · RSI 55 · price 86,095.19
Higher low off asia low, asia downline broken.
Asia session gave back nearly all of the Sunday-evening rally, falling from the 86,866 asia high to an 85,286 asia low. A higher low at 85,674 and a 06:45 UTC breakout through the asia downline followed, but the move was rejected at the 86,248 spike high near the rally fib 38.2%. London opens with price at the rally fib 50% around 86,070 as a firm USD on French fiscal stress weighs on risk.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,248 spike high opens the path back toward the 86,866 asia high
Loss of the 85,936 prior high, then the 85,674 higher low, unwinds the downline breakout and brings the 85,286 asia low back into play
S&P Composite PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 86,866 Asia high; bounce capped near 38.2% fib.
The Asia session reversed from the 86,866 Asia high to an 85,286 Asia low as the risk-off USD bid built. The rebound met rejection at the 85,936 bounce high, just above the 38.2% fib and under the falling trendline. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 into London open.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 85,936 bounce high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 50% fib at 86,076.
Failure to hold the 85,582 minor low exposes the 85,286 Asia low. A break there puts the 85,000 round number in play.
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), about 7h out, could materially shift this read.
Lower high at 85,936 under the 86,866 Asian high; small higher lows off 85,286.
Monday's Asia session reversed Sunday's breakout run to the 86,866 Asian high. A safe-haven USD bid drove the slide to a 85,286 swing low, a retest just under the 85,462 prior high. The bounce met rejection at the 85,936 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib and EMA20, leaving a lower high with London open about 30 minutes away.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,936 bounce high opens the fib 50% at 86,076; acceptance there brings the asian high at 86,866 back into range
Loss of the 85,648 bounce base re-exposes the 85,462 prior high and the 85,286 swing low; a break of the swing low extends the lower-low sequence
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), after S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read via the USD
06:18 UTC
Pullback from the 86,866 high, bounce in progress · RSI 43 · price 85,807.50
Lower highs off the 86,866 Asia high; higher low at 85,583 after the 85,286 swing low.
Asia session faded the 86,866 high to an 85,286 swing low as Monday's safe-haven USD bid weighed. Buyers stepped in just under the 85,462 Sunday high, and the bounce into London open is pressing an 85,890 cluster where the 38.2% fib of the Asia drop, EMA20 and the descending line converge. RSI(14) is near 43 and recovering.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 85,890 (38.2% / EMA20 / descending line) opens the fib 50% at 86,076
Loss of the 85,583 higher low puts the 85,462 Sunday high and 85,286 swing low back in play
Asia high at 86,866 remains the session cap while lower highs hold
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia high, retest of old range top.
Sunday's break of the 85,000–85,460 range ran to an 86,866 Asia high, then a lower-highs sell-off retraced almost the whole leg to an 85,286 Asia low as the USD caught a risk-off bid. A late-Asia bounce has reclaimed the old range top at 85,460. RSI(14) is near 39, with the lower-highs trendline, the 61.8% fib (~85,880) and the 85,950 prior high stacked overhead.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 85,460 range top on a closing basis reopens the 85,286 Asia low
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 85,950 prior high breaks the Asia sell-off sequence
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 85,880 keeps the lower-highs structure intact
London open in ~1h may set the new session range
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and S&P Composite PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia high at 86,866 stays the upper boundary of the session range
05:48 UTC
Intraday downtrend, first bounce off lows · RSI 36 · price 85,649.68
Asia lower highs from 86,866; full retest of Sunday breakout base.
Late in the Asia session, price has retraced almost all of the Sunday rally from 85,275 to the 86,866 Asia high as the haven USD bid built, with a lower-highs sequence after the rejection at the top. The 85,286 swing low held and the latest bar bounced to 85,650, still below EMA20/50. RSI(14) sits near 36 and ATR(14) is about $224.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 85,286 swing low completes the full Sunday rally retrace and exposes the 85,000 round number
A reclaim of the 85,950 prior high and the lower-highs line negates the Asia downtrend read
London open within the hour may set a fresh session range away from the Asia lows
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
False break above Sunday range; lower highs since the 86,866 peak, price back at the breakout base.
Sunday-evening breakout above the 85,460 range top ran to 86,866 early in the Asia session, then the risk-off USD bid at the Asian open unwound the whole move. That false break has dragged price back to the 85,286 session low, with a lower high at 85,575 and RSI(14) near 30.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 85,286 session low exposes the 85,200 swing low and the 85,000 round number
M15 close back above the 85,460 range top and the 85,575 lower high would weaken the false-break read; fib 38.2 of the Asia sell-off sits at 85,890
London open is the next test of the Asia session low after a ~1,580-point unwind
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 86866, testing the pre-rally base.
Asia session retraced about 95% of Sunday's late rally from the 85275 rally base to the 86866 swing high. A chain of lower highs, in step with the USD bid at the Monday open, took price back to the session low at 85356. RSI(14) sits near 30 with price below both EMAs; the 85575 minor high capped the first bounce, and the 86k pivot sits above.
Support: 85,356.00, 85,275.00
Resistance: 85,575.00, 86,866.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85275 rally base erases the whole rally and exposes 85k psych
Reclaim of the 85575 minor high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 86k pivot next
Repeated holds at the 85356 session low into London open would mark the rally retrace as a base
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
05:07 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after full breakout reversal · RSI 21 · price 85,410.94
Failed breakout, lower highs from 86,866 back into prior range top.
Sunday evening's breakout from the 85,000–85,460 prior range peaked at 86,866 early in the Asia session. It has since fully unwound into a false break, with lower highs and a slide to the 85,374 Asia low as the USD caught a safe-haven bid. RSI(14) near 21 is oversold, and price sits back at the top of the prior range with London open approaching.
What it said to watch
A close below the 85,374 Asia low exposes the prior range floor near 85,210 and the 85,000 round number
Recovery above the 85,670 shelf needed to ease the lower-high sequence; fib 38.2 at 85,944 and the 86,074 pivot low sit above
A break of the lower-high trendline from 86,866 would neutralise the Asia downtrend read
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 86,866 Asia peak; testing pre-rally base.
Late-Sunday breakout from the 85,335 rally base peaked at 86,866 early in the Asia session, short of the $87K zone. Price has since unwound almost the entire move in a steady lower-high sequence alongside the safe-haven USD bounce. It now sits on the 85,374 swing low with RSI(14) near 24, below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Break of the 85,374 swing low and the 85,335 rally base erases the Sunday rally and exposes the 85,200 sunday shelf
Recovery above the 85,835 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain; fib 38.2 at 85,945 lines up with the prior cap from Sunday's first push
86,075 broken low is the last intraday pivot before the 86,866 high; reclaiming it negates the sell-off read
London open in ~2h may set a new session range off the Asian low
ISM Services PMI 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via yields and the dollar
04:32 UTC
Pullback in progress, lower highs since 86866 · RSI 28 · price 85,646.68
Sunday-night breakout fully retraced into a retest of the old range top.
BTC broke above the 85462 range top late Sunday and ran to the 86866 session high in early Asia. Rejection there turned into a lower-high sequence (86597 lower high) that has unwound most of the leg to a 85528 session low, a 77% retracement of the rally that now sits just above the old range top. RSI(14) is near 28 with ATR around $225 per bar, and price is below both EMAs as the Asia session winds down ahead of London.
Support: 85,527.81, 85,461.88, 85,000.00
Resistance: 86,000.00, 86,596.63, 86,866.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85462 range top turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 85000 round number
Holding the 85528 session low keeps the range-top retest intact; reclaiming 86000 psych is the first sign the pullback is stalling
A close above the 86597 lower high breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 86866 session high
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC could shift this read; per the digest, a hot print firms yields and the dollar
Lower highs since 86,866; lower low through 86,074; at 61.8% fib.
Sunday's late breakout from the 85,200–85,460 base met rejection at the 86,866 session high early in Asia. A chain of lower highs has since taken price through the 86,074 prior low to 85,800, the 61.8% fib of the rally, with RSI(14) near 32. The fade lines up with the safe-haven USD bid in early Monday Asia.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 86,074 prior low and the lower-highs trendline negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 85,674 swing low exposes the 85,462 prior high, the top of Sunday's base
London open in ~3h may set a new session range away from the Asian range
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
04:06 UTC
Pullback after Sunday breakout, lower highs in Asia · RSI 36 · price 85,942.35
LH/LL sequence from 86,866 session high; 86,074 pivot broken.
Sunday-evening breakout from the 85,335 base ran to an 86,866 session high in early Asia. The rally stalled short of the 87K resistance zone the digest flags, and Asia has since printed lower highs and broken the 86,074 broken low. Price is sitting on the 61.8% fib of the breakout leg near 85,880, under EMA20 and just below EMA50, with RSI(14) near 36.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 86,074 broken low weakens the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the 85,875 session low exposes the 85,673 swing low, then the 85,335 breakout base
Lower-high trendline from 86,866 caps rebounds; a break of the 86,597 lower high invalidates it
ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 47 · price 86,149.13
Lower highs and lower lows since the 86,866 Asia peak; retracing the Sunday breakout leg.
A late-Sunday breakout from the 85,000–85,460 range ran to an 86,866 session high early in the Asia session, carried by the dovish read of Friday's 29K NFP miss. Since then, lower highs under the trendline have pulled price back to 86,150, between the 38.2% and 50% fib, with the 86,074 swing low the next support.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 86,074 swing low and 50% fib exposes the 85,950 breakout level
M15 close above the 86,390 lower high breaks the trendline sequence
Reclaim of the 86,866 session high puts the $87K resistance zone back in play
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 86,866 session high; 86,074 swing low intact.
Sunday's late-hours breakout above 85,460 ran to a session high at 86,866 in early Asia, extending the soft-NFP bid. Since then, lower highs near 86,600 have marked a drift to the 86,173 Asia low. Price is retesting the 38.2% fib near 86,258, below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 86,074 swing low (50% fib) exposes the 85,950 breakout top
M15 close above the 86,600 lower highs trendline reopens the session high and the 87,000 round number
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 86,866 inside 86,270–86,870 Asia range.
Sunday's late break out of the 85,000–85,460 range carried to a session high at 86,866 early in the Asia session, helped by the dovish read on Friday's soft NFP. Since then a flag of lower highs near 86,600 has been pressing into the 86,270 Asia low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the breakout leg. Price is under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 86,270 Asia low opens the 50% fib and 86,074 swing low, then the 85,950 breakout top
Close above the 86,600 lower high breaks the flag and puts the 86,866 session high back in play
Acceptance above 86,866 brings the 87,000 round number and the $87–88K resistance zone into view
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via yields and the dollar
03:05 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 51 · price 86,403.85
Post-breakout pullback, lower highs since 86866.
Sunday's 85000–85460 range broke late in the day, extending into a session high at 86866 in early Asia as the soft-NFP dovish read carried over. Since then price has printed lower highs capped near 86600 and is holding just under EMA20, with the 86280 swing low and the 86074 pullback low (the 50% retrace) beneath. RSI(14) has cooled to ~51; the 85950 breakout lvl is the reference below that.
Support: 86,280.00, 86,074.00, 85,950.00
Resistance: 86,600.00, 86,866.00, 87,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86600 lower highs reopens the 86866 session high and the 87000 round number
Loss of the 86280 swing low exposes the 86074 pullback low and 50% retrace
Break below the 85950 breakout lvl would undercut the evening breakout
ISM Services PMI 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Late on Sunday, BTC broke above the weekend range top near 85,460 and ran to an 86,866 session high early in the Asia session, still carrying the dovish read from Friday's weak NFP. Price has since consolidated between 86,280 and 86,866. The 02:30 UTC dip to the 86,280 swing low held near the 38.2% retracement and stayed above the 50% fib at 86,074, with RSI(14) neutral around 54.
What it said to watch
A close below the 86,280 swing low exposes the 50% fib at 86,074; failure there puts the 85,460 range top back in play
A close above the 86,866 session high opens the psych 87k level and the $87–88K resistance zone
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45) could materially shift this read via yields and the dollar
02:32 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from Asian high · RSI 55 · price 86,369.88
Impulsive range break, now lower highs into 61.8% fib.
BTC broke out of Sunday's 85,000–85,460 range late in the day and ran to an Asian high of 86,866, helped by the dovish read of Friday's weak NFP. A series of lower highs (86,813, then 86,639) has since pulled price back to the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg near 86,377. The rising trendline and EMA20 (~86,320) converge at that level, and RSI(14) has cooled to 55.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and 61.8% fib near 86,350 exposes the asian low at 86,074
Failure to hold 86,074 opens a test of the 85,950 breakout level from the range break
Reclaim of the 86,639 lower high puts the 86,866 asian high and the 87,000 round number back in play
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via yields and the dollar
HH/HL chain since late-Sunday range break; higher low at 86,448.
Late-Sunday break above the 84,700–85,460 weekend range carried through the Asia session to a session high at 86,866, with the soft NFP print still the cited tailwind. Price is holding a higher-lows chain above the 86,448 swing low; RSI(14) has cooled to ~58 and ATR(14) runs near $240 per bar.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 86,448 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain
Loss of the 86,074 asian low, the 50% fib of the breakout leg, undercuts the uptrend read
Close above the 86,866 session high puts the 87,000 psych level and the $87–88K resistance zone in play
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk via yields and the dollar
02:06 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 59 · price 86,504.74
Sunday range break, higher-low chain intact in Asia.
Price was capped in an 84,700–85,460 Sunday range, then broke out at 20:30 UTC. It extended through the Asia session to a session high at 86,866, consistent with the post-NFP dovish backdrop the digest describes. It has since eased to the 86,450–86,500 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 59 cooling from the spike and the 86,074 higher low still defending the rising-lows trendline.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 86,074 higher low (near the 50% fib) breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 85,950 prior high.
A close above the 86,866 session high opens the 87,000 round number, the base of the 87–88K resistance zone cited in the digest.
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via yields and the dollar.
A drop under the 86,447 pullback low would turn the current dip into a deeper retracement of the breakout leg.
Higher highs and higher lows since late-Sunday breakout; first pullback from 86,866.
BTC broke out of the 84,700–85,460 weekend range late Sunday and carried the move into the early Asia session. Higher lows held, with the 86,074 swing low at the 50% fib of the leg, before a session high at 86,866; the dovish post-NFP read is the backdrop. The 01:30 UTC bar was rejected back to an 86,523 pullback low, RSI(14) has cooled to about 64, and price holds above EMA20 and EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,866 session high clears the 86,678 prior high and brings the 87,000 round number into play; the digest flags 87–88K as repeated resistance
Failure to hold the 86,523 pullback low exposes the 86,074 swing low / 50% fib; a break there ends the higher-lows chain
Loss of the 85,950 prior cap (near the 61.8% fib) would undo most of the Sunday-evening leg
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7): a hot print with rising yields could materially shift this read
BTC ground higher inside 84,670–85,460 through Sunday, then broke out from 20:30 UTC and extended to a session high of 86,866 early in the Asia session, with the weak NFP still acting as a dovish-Fed tailwind. The 00:30 UTC swing low at 86,074 sat on the 50% retracement of the breakout leg and on rising support. The opening Monday bar is now retesting the 86,678 prior high just under the 87,000 round number, with RSI(14) near 65.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 86,678 prior high turns the retest into a failed hold
Close below the 86,074 swing low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain, exposing the 85,950 breakout level
Acceptance above the 87,000 round number opens the 87–88K resistance zone
ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 69 · price 86,622.61
Range break, higher-low chain intact.
A late-Sunday breakout from the 85,000–85,370 range ran to an 86,678 session high. The pullback held the 86,074 pullback low near the 38.2% fib and the rising trendline. Price is back near the high in early Asia session with RSI(14) around 69, against a soft-NFP, softer-USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,678 session high opens the 87,000 round number
Loss of the 86,074 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline, exposing the 85,950 breakout level
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the range break above 85,360.
Sunday's 85,000–85,360 range gave way in a rally from 20:30 UTC that set an 86,678 session high, with the soft-USD tone after Friday's 29K NFP miss still the backdrop. Early Asia pulled back to an 86,074 swing low and recovered, and price is holding just below the session high with RSI(14) near 64.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 86,074 swing low would break the higher-low chain along the rising trendline
Acceptance above the 86,678 session high exposes the 87,000 round number, where the 87–88K cap begins
Loss of the 85,950 prior high would put the 85,360 range top back in focus as the next reference below
The 50–61.8% retracement of the rally sits at 85,977–85,811, around the prior high
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a hot print would undercut the dovish-Fed tailwind
00:47 UTC
Uptrend, pullback held · RSI 67 · price 86,452.79
Range breakout, higher low at 86,074.
BTC broke out of Sunday's 85,000–85,460 range late Sunday evening, cleared the 85,950 prior high and tagged a 24h high at 86,678, in line with the dovish tailwind from Friday's soft NFP. Early Asia session pulled back to an asia low at 86,074, about 43% of the impulse fib, and the bounce has recovered toward 86,450 with RSI(14) near 66.
What it said to watch
A break below the 86,074 asia low and the support trendline exposes the 85,950 prior high, near the 50% fib.
A failure at 85,950 reopens the 85,460 range top.
An M15 close above the 86,678 24h high puts 87,000 psych and the 87–88K resistance zone in play.
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read.
00:32 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after breakout · RSI 55 · price 86,133.14
Breakout leg from 85,360 range, lower high at 86,604, testing swing low.
A late-Sunday breakout from the 85,000–85,360 range ran to a session high at 86,678, extending the post-NFP firmness. A lower high at 86,604 followed, and price has pulled back into the early Asia session. It now sits on the 86,115 swing low near the 38.2% fib of the breakout leg, with RSI(14) cooled to ~55 and ATR elevated.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 86,115 swing low exposes the 85,950 prior high and the 50% fib
Loss of the 85,698 breakout base returns price toward the prior 85,000–85,360 range
Reclaim of the 86,604 lower high and the 86,678 session high reopens the 87,000 round number
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read later today
00:17 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after impulse · RSI 64 · price 86,318.94
Range break, higher lows.
BTC broke above the 85,000–85,460 Sunday range at about 20:30 UTC and ran to an 86,678 window high, with the weak-NFP, soft-dollar backdrop still the cited tailwind. Early Asia session has pulled back to an 86,199 pullback low, just above the 38.2% level of the impulse fib (about 86,140). The 86,115 swing low and the rising trendline sit just below. RSI(14) has cooled to about 64.
What it said to watch
A break below the 86,199 pullback low and the 86,115 swing low would breach the rising trendline and expose the 85,950 prior highs near the 50% level of the impulse fib.
Acceptance above the 86,581 spike high and the 86,678 window high reopens the 87,000 round number, the base of the 87–88K resistance zone.
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (forecast 55.7) is the next macro catalyst. A hot print could undo the post-NFP extension.
00:05 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 64 · price 86,348.91
Range break, higher lows since 85,275.
Late-Sunday break of the 85,000–85,460 range carried BTC to an 86,679 session high, extending the post-NFP-miss bid in thin weekend liquidity. Price is easing back to the 23.6% fib of the breakout leg near 86,350 and testing the rising trendline. The 86,292 higher low is the first support beneath.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 86,292 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 86,115 swing low / 38.2% fib
Clearance of the 86,679 session high puts the 87,000 round number in play
Loss of the 85,950 breakout level would undercut the range break read
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read