Multi-month downtrend off the late-April ~82.7K peak, price still below a falling EMA(50). The double bottom near 58K (YTD low) has fuelled a relief bounce back to the ~63K supply wall that has capped rallies all quarter, with RSI recovering into the mid-50s. This is short-covering into resistance on the dovish NFP/Warsh repricing, not yet a structural trend change.
What it said to watch
Daily close above the 64,600 supply wall opens the path toward the 67,200 swing high
Loss of 58,000 confirms a fresh lower-low and resumes the downtrend
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:06 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off lows · RSI 54 · price 63,987.53
Lower highs since May peak, double bottom near 58K.
BTC has been in a downtrend since the mid-May peak at 82.7K, carving a YTD low near 58K in late June before a ~6% rebound off the soft NFP miss and dovish Warsh commentary. A double bottom around 58K has held and price is back above EMA(20) but still below a falling EMA(50), now pressing into the 64K supply wall. The 60K handle and the 58K YTD low frame the downside; record June ETF outflows remain an overhang capping the bounce.
What it said to watch
Daily close above the 64.6K supply wall opens the path toward the 66.4K prior high
Failure to hold the 60K handle reopens the 58K YTD low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read