21:08 UTC
Uptrend stalling, lower highs since Oct 2 · RSI 39 · price 82,020.67
Double top at 87k, neckline broken, basing near EMA(50).
The Aug 19 breakout from the 62k–65k base extended to a 87,273 peak on Sep 21. A second test at 87,058 on Oct 2 failed, and the Oct 8 drop through the 82,600 neckline completed a double top. Since then price has printed lower highs beneath 84,260, while the Oct 15 swing low at 79,737 held at the 61.8% retracement of the Sep swing and at the still-rising EMA(50) near 80,500. Last week's hot US PPI and retail sales kept Fed-hike risk alive, which fits with rebounds stalling below the falling lower-highs line and EMA(20) near 82,600.
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 79,737 swing low and the EMA(50) near 80,500 would turn the Sep swing into a full retracement, opening the 74,900 sept low
- Recovery and hold above the 82,600 neckline, followed by a close above the 84,260 lower high, would break the lower-highs line and negate double-top follow-through
- Fri Oct 23 S&P Global PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read through USD and rate pricing
- RSI holding below 50 on bounces keeps the post-Oct 2 sequence of lower highs intact