19:01 UTC
Downtrend, deep correction from highs · RSI 38 · price 77,225.95
Lower high printed at 126k, broken back below 80k.
Macro regime has flipped from trending-higher to corrective after the double top around 125k-126k in Q3 and Q4 failed to extend. Price has broken back below the prior 88k-90k shelf that capped the 2024 base and now trades under both W1 EMA(20) and EMA(50), confirming a multi-quarter trend change. RSI(14) at 38 is weak but not yet at the sub-30 weekly extremes that historically marked 2022 and early-2024 capitulation lows.
What it said to watch
- Weekly close back above 88k would neutralise the breakdown from prior support
- Weekly close below 76.5k swing low opens the path toward the 70k psych level and ultimately the 60k 2024 low
- Sustained Iran-US diplomatic progress could shift macro risk appetite and materially alter this read