Downtrend since the April peak at 1.1849, price chaining lower highs and lower lows into the June trough at 1.1324, holding below EMA50 throughout. The last two weeks have coiled into a tight 1.1360–1.1440 range as selling momentum faded, with the pair pinned near 1.1400. The digest ties this to a firm safe-haven USD offsetting hawkish ECB repricing.
Support: 1.1360, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1430, 1.1472, 1.1560
What it said to watch
Daily close above 1.1430 range cap opens the path toward 1.1472/1.1560
Loss of 1.1360 range floor reopens the 1.1324 swing low
German final HICP Fri and US CPI Jul 14 are the next catalysts that could break this range
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into range · RSI 46 · price 1.14007
Lower highs off April peak, basing near 1.1400.
EURUSD has been in a downtrend since the early-April peak at 1.1849, carving lower highs into the mid-June low at 1.1324. The last two weeks have stabilised into a tight 1.1360–1.1430 range with price pinned near 1.1400, below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), as hawkish ECB repricing offsets a firm safe-haven USD. Daily momentum has flattened, with RSI mid-range after unwinding from oversold at the June low.
Support: 1.1360, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1430, 1.1490
What it said to watch
Daily close below 1.1360 range floor opens the path back to the 1.1324 June low
Close above 1.1430 range cap opens the drift toward 1.1490 prior high
US CPI Jul 14 and Fed minutes tonight are the key catalysts that could break this range