22:01 UTC
Downtrend resumed, momentum stretched · RSI 29 · price 1.11361
Lower high below 1.1273, swing support at 1.1104.
The early-month rally from the 1.1104 swing low stalled at a double top near 1.1273. The blowout US NFP (165K vs 65K) then drove an unbroken sequence of lower highs back to the Friday low at 1.1131, slicing through the 1.1175 prior base and both EMAs. RSI(14) near 29 shows the leg is stretched, and ATR(14) around 30 pips points to expanding ranges rather than compression.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1175, 1.1202, 1.1273
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the 1.1131 Friday low exposes the 1.1104 swing low, the base of the whole window
- Recovery above the 1.1175 prior base would put the 50% fib at 1.1202 and the falling trendline back in play
- Only a reclaim of the 1.1273 double top high would negate the lower-high sequence
- US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC and EZ HICP Wed Nov 11 07:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with crowded EUR shorts adding squeeze risk