Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
10:58 UTC
Range-bound below EMA50 · RSI 54 · price 1.15673
Consolidating after early-month break lower.
EURUSD broke out of the 1.16-1.165 shelf early-month with a sharp drop to 1.1499 as hot US PPI reinforced higher-for-longer, and has since coiled into a 1.1500-1.1590 range. Price sits back above EMA20 but under EMA50, with the 1.1590 range cap tested twice and demand stepping in near the 1.1500 floor. ATR(14) near 28 pips reflects a compressed, pre-event regime.
Support: 1.1500, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.1590, 1.15895
What it said to watch
- H4 close above 1.1590 range cap reopens upside toward the prior shelf
- Failure to hold 1.1500 floor confirms a lower-low extension toward 1.1400
- FOMC Wed 17 Jun could materially shift this range read
10:58 UTC
Downtrend stalling into range · RSI 52 · price 1.15673
Range-bound after impulse drop, 1.1500-1.1590.
A sharp early-June impulse broke EURUSD down from 1.1686 to 1.1499, since when price has coiled in a tight 1.1500-1.1590 band — consistent with the 1.15-1.16 range flagged around the in-line ECB hike and firm US data. Price sits mid-range above EMA20 but below the still-declining EMA50, retracing roughly 38% of that drop. ATR has cooled from the breakdown spike, leaving compression ahead of FOMC.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1499, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1590, 1.1672
What it said to watch
- H4 close above 1.1590 range ceiling reopens upside toward 1.1672
- H4 close below 1.1500 floor confirms a lower low, exposing 1.1400
- FOMC Wed 17 Jun (Warsh debut) is the dominant catalyst for this range