Persistent downtrend has driven EURUSD to fresh 13-month lows near 1.1324, the leg extending on hawkish-Fed USD strength after firm US GDP and income data. Price is now consolidating the 1.1324-1.1385 band with momentum oversold; the bounce off 1.1324 has yet to reclaim the 1.1385 barrier. Both EMAs remain above price, keeping the bearish structure intact.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1411
What it said to watch
Close below 1.1324 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.1280
Reclaim of 1.1385 would neutralise the consolidation read toward 1.1411
Eurozone HICP Mon Jun 29 could materially shift this read
EUR/USD remains in a clear H4 downtrend, printing a fresh 13-month low at 1.1324 after a sustained multi-day slide driven by hawkish-Fed dollar strength. Price is now consolidating in a 1.1324-1.1388 band with the bounce stalling under EMA20, and ATR(14) holding elevated as the move extends. Demand has stepped in twice around 1.1325, but lower highs cap each recovery.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1411
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1324 confirms a lower-low and opens the path toward 1.1280
Reclaim of 1.1385 needed to ease downside pressure, with 1.1411 the next barrier
Eurozone HICP (Mon) and ECB speakers could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, bounce off 13-month low.
EURUSD remains in a clean H4 downtrend, carving lower highs and lower lows since the rollover from 1.1686, with price pinned at 13-month lows after EUR failed to capitalise on ECB hawkishness against the dominant Fed-hike repricing. The latest bar bounced off the 1.1325 floor toward 1.1384 — an oversold relief move into US PCE — but price still sits below both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR is steady, with the 1.1370 area acting as the immediate cap.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1411
What it said to watch
Sustained close below 1.1325 opens the path toward 1.1280
Close back above the 1.1370 cap would extend the bounce toward 1.1411
US PCE print is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, bouncing off swing low.
EURUSD has carved a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the rejection near 1.1620, sliding into 13-month lows around 1.1324 on broad USD strength and Fed-hike repricing. Price is now consolidating in the 1.1330–1.1385 band below both EMAs, with this latest bar reclaiming the figure off the swing low into the US PCE catalyst. The structure stays bearish while the 1.1370 cap holds.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1411
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1370 breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes 1.1411
Loss of 1.1325 swing low confirms a fresh lower low toward 1.1280
EURUSD remains in a clean H4 downtrend, printing successive lower highs and lower lows since the early-window 1.1661 top, pressured by hawkish-Fed repricing that dragged the pair to 13-month lows. Price is now basing in a 1.1325-1.1385 consolidation just above the 1.1325 floor, with ATR compressing as momentum fades. Both EMA20 and EMA50 sit overhead, capping bounces.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1411
What it said to watch
Daily close below 1.1325 opens the 1.1280 path
Reclaim of 1.1370 cap would target the 1.1411 barrier
US PCE today is the primary near-term driver of this read
13:00 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 35 · price 1.1337
Lower highs, lower lows since early-month peak.
EUR/USD remains in a clear H4 downtrend, carving lower highs and lower lows since the early-month peak near 1.1685, with price now pinned at 13-month lows around 1.1337 below the 1.1370 cap. The hawkish-Fed repricing and US PCE risk continue to drive the dollar bid; RSI near 34 reflects an extended, oversold move rather than a base. Both EMA20 and EMA50 sit overhead, confirming bearish momentum.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1328, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1411
What it said to watch
Daily close below 1.1325 opens the 1.1280 path
Reclaim of 1.1370 would relieve downside pressure toward 1.1411
US PCE print today is the primary near-term driver and could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 37 · price 1.13622
Lower highs / lower lows, below broken range floor.
EUR/USD has rolled over into a clean H4 downtrend, breaking the long-held 1.1400-1.1800 range on hawkish-Fed repricing and printing successive lower lows toward 1.1325. ATR is expanding as the move extends and price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, though RSI is deeply oversold after the third down-day. The bounce off 1.1325 is shallow against the broken 1.1411 floor, which now caps as resistance.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1300, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.1411
What it said to watch
US Core PCE today 12:30 GMT is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.1325 confirms continuation toward the 1.1300 psych and 1.1250 consensus low
H4 close back above 1.1411 broken floor would neutralise the breakout
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into catalyst · RSI 35 · price 1.13622
Lower highs and lower lows, range floor broken.
EUR/USD remains in a clean H4 downtrend, having broken the long-held 1.1400 range floor and printing successive lower lows toward 1.1324 on hawkish-Fed repricing. Price is pinned below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI deeply oversold, and the modest bounce off 1.1324 is unfolding into today's US PCE print. ATR(14) is expanding, consistent with a trend extension rather than compression.
Support: 1.13242, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1411
What it said to watch
US PCE today 12:30 GMT is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
H4 close below 1.1300 confirms continuation toward the 1.12 consensus zone
Reclaim of 1.1411 would negate the range-break read
EURUSD remains in a clean downtrend, printing successive lower highs and lower lows since mid-June and reaching 1-year lows near 1.1324 — a USD-driven move on hawkish-Fed repricing rather than EUR weakness. Price is pinned below EMA20 and EMA50, with the broken 1.1400 range floor now capping, and the latest bars showing a tentative bounce off 1.1324 into oversold RSI conditions.
Support: 1.13242, 1.1300, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1445
What it said to watch
US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
H4 close back above 1.1400 would challenge the lower-high structure
Loss of 1.1300 confirms continuation and opens the 1.1250 pivot
EURUSD remains in a clean H4 downtrend, printing successive lower highs and lower lows since the mid-month break below the long-held 1.1400 floor, with price probing fresh 1-year lows around 1.1324 on the broad hawkish-Fed USD repricing. The bounce off 1.1324 to 1.1370 leaves RSI oversold and momentum easing, but price stays firmly below both EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.1400 broken range and 1.1450 range top cap any recovery attempt.
Support: 1.13242, 1.1300, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1450
What it said to watch
US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC is the dominant near-term catalyst for this read
A close below 1.1324 confirms continuation toward the 1.1300 psych pivot
Reclaim of 1.1400 would neutralise the lower-high structure
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 33 · price 1.13528
Lower highs and lower lows since range break.
EUR/USD remains in a clean H4 downtrend, printing successive lower highs and lower lows after breaking decisively below the long-held 1.1400 floor to a one-year low at 1.1324, driven by hawkish-Fed/dovish-ECB divergence. ATR(14) near 205 pips marks an expanding, trending regime, with price stacked well below both EMA20 and EMA50. RSI in the low 30s flags oversold conditions, raising the risk of a short-cover bounce against the trend.
Support: 1.13242, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.13675, 1.1400
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1400 would neutralise the range break
Loss of 1.1300 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
US Core PCE in ~12h is the dominant near-term catalyst for this read
Oversold RSI leaves room for a corrective pop toward 1.1361
EUR/USD remains in a clean H4 downtrend, printing lower highs and lower lows since the mid-month breakdown through 1.1400 to a one-year low at 1.1324 on the US-EU growth-divergence and hawkish-Fed theme. Price is stretched well below the EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in oversold territory, and the bounce off 1.1324 toward 1.1368 reflects that compression rather than a structural shift. Demand has stepped in twice around the 1.1325/1.1300 zone, but the broader sequence stays lower.
Support: 1.13242, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.13675, 1.1400
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1400 would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.1324 opens the path toward the 1.1300 area flagged by ING
US Core PCE in ~12h (12:30 UTC) is the dominant catalyst that could reset this read