EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 25 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:46 UTC
Range after London rally, momentum fading · RSI 47 · price 1.13928
Double top at 1.1410; range 1.1386–1.1410 with lower highs.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1382 and ran to 1.1410 as the dollar paused on the oil slump. NY rejected the same level for a double top, then swept to the NY low at 1.1386 and printed a lower high at 1.1401. Late-Friday price is drifting at 1.1393, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the London rally and pinned near the 1.1400 strike.
Support: 1.13858, 1.13819
Resistance: 1.1401, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1386 NY low completes the double top and exposes the 61.8% fib and the 1.1382 Asian high
Close above the 1.1401 lower high reopens the 1.1410 double top
Weekend US–Iran/Hormuz headlines could gap the Monday open and override this read
20:31 UTC
Range after London rally, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.13932
1.1386–1.1410 range capped by a double top, late NY.
London lifted EURUSD out of the Asian range (1.1368–1.1382) to 1.1410 as the dollar paused on the oil slump. A NY retest of 1.1410 was rejected, forming a double top. Price is now drifting at 1.1393, between the NY low at 1.1386 and the 1.1400 round number, near the 38.2% retrace of the London rally fib.
Support: 1.1386, 1.1382
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1386 ny low exposes the asian high at 1.1382 and the 61.8% of the London rally fib near 1.1384
Close above the 1.1410 double top breaks the range; the 1.1400 round number is the first cap
Thin late-Friday liquidity and weekend US–Iran Hormuz headlines carry gap risk into the open
20:16 UTC
Intraday range after London rally, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 1.13951
Lower high under 1.1410 day high; NY low 1.1386 intact.
London rallied off the 1.1368 Asian low and was rejected twice at the 1.1410 day high, at 11:30 and 16:00 UTC, as the dollar paused on the oil slide. NY faded to a 1.1386 NY low near the 61.8% fib of the London rally, and the late-session bounce stalled at the 1.1400 cap. Price is ranging at EMA20 into the Friday close.
Support: 1.13858, 1.13679
Resistance: 1.1401, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1410 day high invalidates the double top read
Loss of the 1.1386 NY low breaks the 61.8% fib and confirms the double top
Lower highs line from 1.1410 caps the late recovery; a break reopens the 1.1400 cap
Failure at the 1.1386 NY low exposes the 1.1368 Asian low
Weekend US–Iran Hormuz headlines and oil could gap the open through the range
20:01 UTC
Sideways after London rally, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 1.13979
1.1386–1.1410 range capped by double top at session high.
London broke above the Asian range from the 1.1368 asian low and ran to the 1.1410 session high, with NY rejected there a second time as the dollar eased on the oil slide. The NY swing low at 1.1386 held near the 61.8% level of the london rally fib, and late NY is pinned at the 1.1400 option level with RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR around 5 pips into the weekly close.
Support: 1.1386, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1401, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ny swing low at 1.1386 confirms the double top and exposes the asian low at 1.1368
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high invalidates the double top read
Weekend US–Iran Hormuz headlines could gap price away from the 1.1400 option level at Monday's open
19:46 UTC
Range after London rally, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 1.13973
1.1386–1.1410 range, double rejection at the day high.
London broke above the Asian range and ran to the day high at 1.1410, which rejected again at 16:00 UTC as USD paused on the oil slide. The NY dip held the 1.1386 swing low near the 50% fib, and price is back at the 1.1400 strike late in the NY session with RSI flat at 50.
Support: 1.1386, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1410 day high breaks the double top and the range
Loss of the 1.1386 swing low completes the double top and exposes the 1.1368 asian low
Price pinned at the 1.1400 strike; thin late-Friday trade limits follow-through
Weekend US–Iran Hormuz or oil headlines could gap the Monday open
19:31 UTC
Sideways after London rally, neutral momentum · RSI 52 · price 1.13993
1.1386–1.1410 range since London, double top at 1.1410.
London lifted EUR/USD out of the 1.1368–1.1382 Asian range to 1.1410 as the USD paused on softer oil, and a German GfK miss was ignored. Price has since held a 1.1386–1.1410 range. The 16:00 UTC spike failed at the same high, printing a double top. Late in the NY session, after London close, price has retraced to the 50% fib of that drop at the 1.1400 round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.1387, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1410 double top breaks the range read
Failure to hold the 1.1387 range low exposes the 1.1368 asian low
Repeated rejection at the 1.1400 round number keeps the 50% fib retrace capped
Weekend US–Iran Hormuz headlines and oil moves could gap the open
19:16 UTC
Intraday range after London rally, mild recovery · RSI 57 · price 1.13992
Range 1.1387–1.1410 under a twice-rejected session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1382 and ran to a 1.1410 session high. That high was rejected again during NY hours. Price has since rebounded from the 1.1387 swing low back to the psych 1.14 level, around the 61.8% fib of that drop and around ECB Vujčić's 18:00 UTC remarks, leaving a late-Friday 1.1387–1.1410 range with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 1.13869, 1.13819, 1.13679
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high breaks the range top that has capped twice
Rejection at psych 1.14 / the 61.8% fib keeps the post-high drop structure intact
Failure to hold the 1.1387 swing low exposes the asian high at 1.1382, then the asian low at 1.1368
Thin late-Friday liquidity and weekend US–Iran Hormuz headlines could open Monday away from this range
19:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, ranging below day high · RSI 58 · price 1.13992
1.1386–1.1410 range since London, equal highs at top.
London broke the Asian range and ran to a 1.1410 day high. NY retested that high at 16:00 UTC and was rejected, but the pullback held the 1.1386 NY low, and late-NY buying has lifted price back to the 1.1400 round number, the option-expiry area flagged in the digest, as the USD pauses on softer oil.
Support: 1.13858, 1.13679
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1410 day high breaks the equal-high range top
Failure to hold the 1.1386 NY low exposes the 1.1368 Asian low
Late-Friday liquidity is thin; next scheduled EUR risk is Monday's EZ HICP at 07:00 UTC
18:46 UTC
Range after London rally, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 1.13952
1.1386–1.1410 range, double rejection at session high.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1382 and ran to a 1.1410 session high as the USD paused after its strong week. The session high was rejected twice, at 11:30 and 16:00 UTC, and price has since ranged 1.1386–1.1410. The 1.1386 swing low held near the 61.8% of the London rally, and price sits at 1.1395 in late NY hours, just under the 1.1400 round number, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.1386, 1.1382
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1386 swing low confirms a lower-low and puts the Asian high at 1.1382 back in play
Acceptance above the 1.1400 round number reopens a test of the 1.1410 session high
ECB Vujčić remarks and thin late-Friday liquidity could distort the range edges
18:31 UTC
Intraday rally stalled, drifting lower late NY · RSI 42 · price 1.13923
London breakout from Asian range, then double top at 1.1410.
London broke above the Asian range (1.1368–1.1382) as the USD paused, running to a 1.1410 session high. NY retested that session high and was rejected, forming a double top. The pullback held the 1.1386 NY low near the 61.8% fib, and price is now drifting just under the 1.1400 expiry and sitting on EMA50 in thin late-NY Friday trade.
Support: 1.13858, 1.13819
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1400 expiry reopens a test of the 1.1410 session high
Loss of the 1.1386 NY low exposes the Asia high at 1.1382 and confirms the double top
ECB Vujčić remarks (18:00 UTC) and thinning Friday liquidity could produce outsized wicks
London broke above the Asian range. NY twice rejected at 1.1410 and price is back inside a 1.1386–1.1410 band..
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1382 and ran to a 1.1410 session high as the USD paused. NY swept the 1.1386 swing low, spiked back to 1.1410 and was rejected a second time. Price has since slipped below the 1.14 expiry and sits on the 50% retrace of the London rally fib, with both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.1386, 1.1382, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1386 swing low completes the double rejection and exposes the asian high at 1.1382, then the asian low at 1.1368
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high invalidates the rejection read
Recapture of the 1.14 expiry would return price to the upper half of the band
ECB Vujčić speaking at 18:00 UTC could move EUR into a thin late-NY Friday close
NY range 1.1386–1.1410 after London broke above the Asian range; lower highs since 16:00 UTC.
London broke the 1.1368–1.1382 Asian range and ran to 1.1410. NY has since held a 1.1386–1.1410 range, and a second rejection at 1.1410 at 16:00 UTC left a double top. Price is back below the 1.14 strike at the 50% retracement of the London leg near 1.1390 as the USD pauses after its weekly rally, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.13858, 1.13819
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1386 ny low extends the retracement toward the 1.1382 asian high and the 61.8% fib near 1.1384
Recovery above the 1.14 strike puts the 1.1410 double top back in play; a close above it invalidates the read
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić both speak at 18:00 UTC, which could move price in the late NY session
17:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, rolling over · RSI 41 · price 1.13895
London rally to 1.1410, double top in NY, pullback to 50% fib.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1382 and ran to 1.1410, where supply capped price twice (11:30 and 16:00 UTC) to form a double top as the USD paused after a firm US data run. After London close, price slid back through the 1.1400 psych level to the 50% fib near 1.1390, with the 1.1386 swing low holding as the neckline.
Support: 1.13858, 1.1382
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1386 swing low confirms the double top and exposes the 1.1382 asian high
Recovery back above 1.1400 psych negates the rollover and puts the 1.1410 double top back in play
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić both speak at 18:00 UTC; either could materially shift this read
1.1395–1.1410 NY range, double top at session high, price slipping under range floor.
The London rally from 1.1378 capped at the 1.1410 session high. A 16:00 UTC retest of that high was rejected for a double top, and price now sits back under the 1.1400 round number at the 61.8% retrace near 1.1390, below both EMAs. The USD's Friday pause has not lifted EUR through the 1.1400 area.
Support: 1.13858, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close below the NY low at 1.1386 exposes the London low at 1.1378
Recovery above the 1.1400 round number reopens the 1.1410 session high
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić, both at 18:00 UTC, could shift this read in thin after-London-close liquidity
17:16 UTC
London uptrend stalled, rolling over late NY · RSI 41 · price 1.1391
NY range 1.1396–1.1410 broken lower after a failed retest of the high.
London lifted EURUSD out of the Asian range to 1.1410 as the dollar paused on US–Iran talk headlines. Two tests of that high in NY formed a double top, and the second was rejected. Price is now back below the 1.1400 option strike and sits near the 50% retrace of the London leg, with the 1.1386 swing low and rising support just beneath.
Support: 1.1386, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1386 swing low and rising support opens the 1.1378 london low
Reclaim of the 1.1400 option strike puts price back inside the NY range
Break above the 1.1410 double top invalidates the rejection read
Fed Hammack and ECB Vujčić both at 18:00 UTC can shift this read
Range 1.1386–1.1410 after London breakout of Asian range.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1390 and ran to a 1.1410 session high as the dollar paused. A late-NY retest of that high around the 16:00 UTC fix was rejected. Price is back at 1.1394, the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London rally and roughly on the EMA50, and has chopped around the 1.1400 option pin through NY hours with the NY low at 1.1386 holding.
Support: 1.1390, 1.13858, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1386 NY low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.1378 London low
Close back above the 1.1410 session high negates the double rejection there
ECB Vujčić and Fed Hammack both speak at 18:00 UTC, within the next hour, and could break the 1.1400 option pin range
Asian high at 1.1390 overlaps the 50% retrace; failure there signals a deeper give-back of the rally
16:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, ranging late NY · RSI 46 · price 1.13982
1.1386–1.1410 range after London broke above the Asian range.
London carried EURUSD out of the Asian range from the 1.1368 Asian low to a 1.1410 session high as the USD paused. NY has pinned price around the 1.1400 round number, the option strike. A dip to the 1.1386 NY low near the 50% retrace was swept and reversed, then a second push met rejection at the session high. RSI(14) sits flat near 46.
Support: 1.13858, 1.13819, 1.13679
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high breaks the range top
Loss of the 1.1386 NY low exposes the 1.1382 Asian high, then the 1.1368 Asian low
Fed Hammack and ECB Vujčić at 18:00 UTC could shift this read into the weekly close
16:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 54 · price 1.14044
London HH/HL leg into a 1.1395–1.1410 NY range; late false break below the floor recovered.
London lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1378 low to a 1.1410 session high as the dollar paused, and NY has since ranged between the 1.1395 range floor and the session high, pinned around the 1.14 strike. After London close a dip ran to a 1.1386 sweep low near the 61.8% of the London rally fib. The rebound retested the session high, with RSI(14) around 54.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1395, 1.13858
Resistance: 1.14104, 1.1430
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high breaks the NY range top and opens the uob level at 1.1430
Failure to hold the 1.1395 range floor and the 1.1386 sweep low reopens the 1.1378 London low
A second rejection at the 1.1410 session high would leave a flat double cap over the range
1.14 strike pin may keep price compressed into the weekend close
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled into a range at 1.1400 · RSI 52 · price 1.14012
Range 1.1395–1.1410 above broken Asian high.
London cleared the 1.1368–1.1382 Asian range and ran to a 1.1410 session high as the USD paused. Price has since pinned around the 1.1400 option strike above a 1.1395 range floor. The NY-hours false break to a 1.1386 sweep low held just above the 61.8% of the London leg and was reclaimed in one bar, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.1395, 1.13858, 1.1382
Resistance: 1.14104, 1.1430
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high breaks the range and opens the path to the 1.1430 uob level
Failure to hold the 1.1386 sweep low returns focus to the 1.1382 asian high and the Asian range
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić, both at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read into the weekend close
16:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled into a range · RSI 51 · price 1.14005
London breakout above the Asian range, then a 1.1395–1.1410 range through NY.
London broke above the Asian range and yesterday's 1.1391 high to print a 1.1410 session high. Since then price has held a 1.1395–1.1410 range pinned around the 1.1400 option strike as the dollar pauses. Late in NY, a dip to 1.1386 swept the range low and was reclaimed between the 50% and 61.8% of the London rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.1395, 1.13858, 1.1382
Resistance: 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high breaks the range top
Loss of the 1.1386 sweep low, below the 61.8% of the London rally fib, exposes the 1.1382 Asian high
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić at 18:00 UTC could dislodge the 1.1400 pin into the weekly close
London HH/HL chain; NY lower highs over a flat 1.1395 base.
London broke above the Asian high at 1.1382 on the dollar pause and eased oil, extending to a 1.1410 session high. Late NY has compressed around the 1.1400 option pin, with a lower-highs trendline capping from the session high while the 1.1395 NY low holds near the 38.2% retrace. RSI(14) near 46 is neutral and price sits just under the EMA20.
Support: 1.13949, 1.13892, 1.13819
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14039, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1395 NY low breaks the consolidation base and exposes the fib 50% at 1.1389, then the Asian high at 1.1382
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1404 lower high reopens the 1.1410 session high
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić, both at 18:00 UTC, could jolt the tight range once the 1.1400 option pin rolls off
London breakout above Asian range; NY hours compressing into a 1.1395–1.1410 range with lower highs.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1382 and extended to a 1.1410 session high as the dollar paused. NY hours have printed lower highs and drifted back under the 1.1400 option pin, with the mixed durables and Michigan prints failing to break the range. RSI(14) is neutral at 45 and the NY low at 1.1395 is being tested.
Support: 1.13952, 1.1389, 1.13819
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1395 NY low opens the london base near 1.1389, the 38.2% retrace of the London rally
Failure to hold 1.1389 puts the asian high at 1.1382 back in play
M15 close back above the lower highs line and the 1.1400 option pin reopens the 1.1410 session high
ECB Vujčić and Fed Hammack at 18:00 UTC could break the range
London broke above the Asian range; NY compressing into a 1.1396–1.1410 box with lower highs.
London lifted EUR/USD out of the 1.1368–1.1382 Asian range and through Thursday's prior high at 1.1391 to a session high of 1.1410, as oil eased on reports of US-Iran talks. NY has since compressed into a 1.1396–1.1410 box under a line of lower highs. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and price sits on the lower edge of the 1.1400–1.1430 res zone flagged in the macro read.
Support: 1.1396, 1.1391, 1.1382
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1430
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1396 range floor exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.1394 and the prior high at 1.1391
Loss of 1.1391 reopens the Asian high at 1.1382 and unwinds the London breakout
Close above the 1.1410 session high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the res zone toward 1.1430
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; London close due within the hour
London breakout above Asian range, NY compressing 1.1396–1.1410.
London broke above the Asian range, with the Asian high at 1.1382, as US-Iran Hormuz talk cooled oil and the dollar, then printed a session high at 1.1410. NY has since compressed under a line of lower highs, with the ny low at 1.1396 holding three times. Price is back below EMA20 and the 1.1400 round number, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.1396, 1.1386, 1.1382
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1396 ny low exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.1394 and the 1.1386 swing low
Close back above the 1.1400 round number and the 1.1410 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Loss of the 1.1382 asian high would unwind the London breakout
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London breakout, lower highs compressing onto 1.1396.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1382 and yesterday's 1.1391 prior high, topping at 1.1410 as oil eased on reports of US-Iran talks. Since then a run of lower highs into the NY session has pressed price onto the 1.1396 range floor, now just below the 1.1400 round number. The 12:30 UTC durables release barely broke the pattern.
Support: 1.1396, 1.1391, 1.1382
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1396 range floor opens the 1.1391 prior high and the 38.2% fib near 1.1394
Loss of 1.1391 puts the Asian high at 1.1382 and the 50% fib near 1.1389 back in play
Reclaim of the 1.1400 round number and a break of the lower highs trendline shifts focus back to the 1.1410 session high
UoM inflation expectations plus Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; NY compressing 1.1396-1.1410.
EUR/USD broke above the 1.1368–1.1382 Asian range into London and ran to a 1.1410 session high as oil eased on US-Iran talk headlines, leaving a clean intraday HH/HL chain. NY has so far compressed between the 1.1396 NY low and the session high, with the 14:00 UTC dip bought back. Just below, the London shelf at 1.1394 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asian-low-to-high move.
Support: 1.1396, 1.1394, 1.1382
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1430
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high opens the 1.1430 res zone flagged in the macro digest
Failure to hold the 1.1396 NY low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.1394, then the Asian high at 1.1382
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić, both at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Uptrend stalled, consolidating below day high · RSI 53 · price 1.14003
London HH/HL leg from the Asian range; NY building lower highs above 1.1397.
London broke the Asian high near 1.1382 and stepped up in higher lows to a 1.1410 day high, tracking the oil pullback on US-Iran Hormuz talk. Since then NY has compressed around 1.1400, holding the ny low at 1.1397 under a lower-high trendline. RSI(14) sits at 53 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.1397, 1.1386, 1.1382
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1430
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1397 ny low breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the london hl at 1.1386 (38.2% fib near 1.1394).
Close above the 1.1410 day high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens the 1.1430 res zone at the top of the 1.1400-1.1430 band.
Loss of the 1.1382 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the London breakout.
UoM final inflation expectations (14:00 UTC, f/c 4.6%/3.4%), then Hammack and Vujčić at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read.
HH/HL from Asia low, NY-session range 1.1397–1.1410.
London broke above the Asian high at 1.1382 and the prior high at 1.1391, then ran to a session high at 1.1410 as oil eased on US-Iran talk reports and USD paused. NY session has compressed into 1.1397–1.1410 with lower highs, while the NY low at 1.1397 sits on the rising support line from the Asia low. RSI(14) is near 57 and price is hugging EMA20 around 1.1400.
Support: 1.13966, 1.13913, 1.13819
Resistance: 1.14104, 1.1430
What it said to watch
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the NY low 1.1397 breaks rising support and exposes the prior high 1.1391, then the Asian high 1.1382
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high opens the path to key res at 1.1430
Hammack and Vujčić at 18:00 UTC are late-session event risk
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, now a tight 1.1398–1.1410 range.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1382 and cleared the prior high at 1.1391, reaching a 1.1410 session high as oil eased on reports of US-Iran talks. Mixed US durables at 12:30 UTC barely registered, and price has compressed between the 1.1398 range low and 1.1410 into the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) cooled to ~60 and the rising trendline from the Asian low near 1.1396.
Support: 1.1398, 1.1391, 1.1382
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1430
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1398 range low and rising trendline exposes the prior high at 1.1391, then the asian high at 1.1382 near the 61.8% fib
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high puts the 1.1430 resistance in view
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC is a second risk window for the NY session
HH/HL chain from the London low, now consolidating on 1.1400 after a lower high.
London broke above the Asian range (1.1368–1.1382) and built a HH/HL chain to a 1.1410 session high, with USD easing as crude slipped on reports of US-Iran talks. Mixed US durable goods at the NY open left a lower high at 1.1408. Price is now holding the 1.1400 round number just above the 1.1398 swing low, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 58.
Support: 1.13981, 1.13938, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.14082, 1.14104, 1.1430
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1398 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the HH/HL chain, exposing the 1.1394 prior high (fib 50%)
Close above the 1.1408 lower high and 1.1410 session high resumes the uptrend toward the 1.1430 resist band
Loss of the 1.1378 london low returns price to the Asian range
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 59 · price 1.13989
HH/HL chain off Asian range break; first lower high at 1.1408, now retesting 1.1400.
London broke the Asian range high near 1.1382 and extended a HH/HL chain to a 1.1410 session high as crude eased on US-Iran talk reports and DXY slipped off 101.40. Price is now retesting the 1.1400 round number after a 1.1408 lower high, sitting on the rising London trendline with RSI(14) cooled to ~59 and EMA20 flat just below.
Support: 1.1394, 1.1386, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1408, 1.1410
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, with Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the London trendline and the 38.2% fib at 1.1394 of the Asia-London leg exposes the prior base at 1.1386
Failure to hold the 1.1378 London low breaks the intraday HL chain
Close above the 1.1408 lower high and the 1.1410 session high resumes the HH sequence
HH/HL chain since London open; pullback holding above 1.1400.
London broke the Asian range top near 1.1382 and yesterday's prior high at 1.1391, then set a session high at 1.1410 as oil eased on US-Iran headlines. The first NY pullback held the 1.1400 psych level on a retest, and the higher-low trendline remains intact with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1391, 1.1386
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1430
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM final (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1400 psych and the higher-low trendline turns the retest into a false break
Loss of the 1.1391 prior high and the 1.1386 swing low breaks the intraday HL chain
Close above the 1.1410 session high opens the path to the 1.1430 band top
12:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 60 · price 1.14008
HH/HL chain since Asian range break; shallow pullback into 1.1400.
London broke the Asian high near 1.1382 and printed a HH/HL chain to a 1.1410 session high as oil eased on US–Iran headlines. Price is now easing back to 1.1400 inside the cited 1.1400–1.1430 resistance band, with the rising HL trendline and the 1.1394 swing low below. The pullback is shallow and still above the 38.2% of the London leg fib, with RSI(14) cooling to about 60.
Support: 1.13945, 1.13862, 1.1382
Resistance: 1.14104, 1.1430
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and final U-Mich at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1394 swing low and HL trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.1386 london low
A move back under the 1.1382 asian high would mark the London breakout as failed
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high exposes 1.1430, the zone top of the cited resistance band
12:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 64 · price 1.14017
HH/HL chain since London open, retesting 1.1400 break level.
London broke above the Asian range (1.1368–1.1382), cleared yesterday's 1.1391 prior high and ran to a 1.1410 session high as the USD eased with oil on US–Iran talk reports. Into the London-NY transition, price is retesting the 1.1400 round number on the rising trendline, at the base of the 1.1400–1.1430 res band, with RSI(14) cooling to ~64.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13945, 1.13913
Resistance: 1.14104, 1.1430
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1395 swing low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 1.1391 prior high / 38.2% fib
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high opens the upper 1.1430 res band
UoM final and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 63 · price 1.14018
HH/HL chain through London; retest of 1.1400 breakout.
London broke out of the 1.1368–1.1382 Asian range and ran a higher-high chain through the 1.1391 prior high and the 1.1400 round number to a 1.1410 session high, as USD eased on reports of US–Iran Hormuz talks. The late-London pullback is now retesting 1.1400. RSI(14) has cooled to ~63, and trendline support from the 07:15 UTC low sits near 1.1393.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13913, 1.13862
Resistance: 1.14104, 1.1430
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.1391 prior high puts the breakout at risk of a false break
Loss of the 1.1386 swing low, near the 50% fib of the Asia-to-London leg, breaks the HL chain and the trendline
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 1.1400–1.1430 resist band
London broke above the Asian range and yesterday's high; HH/HL chain from 1.1378.
London extended the late-Asia push, clearing yesterday's 1.1391 prior high and the 1.1400 round number to a session high at 1.1410 as USD eased on reports of US–Iran Hormuz talks. Higher lows at 1.1378, 1.1386 and the 1.1395 swing low keep the rising support line intact. RSI(14) near 69 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13945, 1.13913
Resistance: 1.14095, 1.1430
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1400 round number turns the break into a false break and exposes the 1.1395 swing low and 1.1391 prior high
M15 close above the 1.1410 session high opens the path toward 1.1430 resistance
Break of the rising support line (near 1.1392) ends the London higher-low sequence; 38.2% fib sits at 1.1398
11:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended ahead of NY · RSI 75 · price 1.14082
HH/HL chain after Asian range break; above prior-day high and 1.1400.
Late London has extended the break of the Asian range high at 1.1382, clearing Thursday's prior high at 1.1391 and the 1.1400 round number to a session high at 1.1409. Higher lows at 1.1378, 1.1386 and the 1.1395 swing low hold above the rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 75. The move fits the digest's USD pullback as US–Iran Hormuz talk trimmed oil.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13945, 1.13913
Resistance: 1.14089, 1.1430
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1400 round number would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1395 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the HL chain, exposing the 1.1391 prior high
Upper zone at 1.1430, the digest's resistance band, is the next reference above the session high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 1.1400 · RSI 67 · price 1.13975
HH/HL chain through London; above Asian range and prior high.
London cleared the 1.1368–1.1382 Asian range, then broke yesterday's 1.1391 prior high on a USD pullback as yields and oil eased, printing higher lows at 1.1378 and 1.1386. Price is compressing just under the 1.1400 psych session high with RSI(14) near 67, not stretched.
Support: 1.1391, 1.1386, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.1400
What it said to watch
Close above 1.1400 psych opens the 1.1400–1.1430 resistance zone flagged in the macro read
Loss of the 1.1391 prior high and the 1.1386 swing low breaks the London HL chain
Close below 1.1378 london low puts price back toward the Asian range
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London-open low, out of Asian range.
London broke above the Asian range and cleared yesterday's 1.1391 spike high, then tagged the 1.1400 round number. The move is USD-led, with Hormuz talk easing oil despite the soft German GfK. Higher lows at the 1.1378 London low and the 1.1386 swing low keep the chain from 1.1368 intact, and RSI(14) is near 70 as price holds just above the 1.1394 range top.
Support: 1.1394, 1.1386, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1430
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1386 swing low breaks the HL chain and the trendline support
Acceptance above the 1.1400 round number opens the 1.1430 zone
Loss of the 1.1378 London low returns price toward the Asian range and the fib 61.8%
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UMich inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through London · RSI 65 · price 1.13971
HH/HL chain off the 1.1368 Asian low; London broke the Asian range and yesterday's NY spike high.
Mid-London, EURUSD cleared the Asian high at 1.1382 and yesterday's NY spike high at 1.1391, printing a session high at 1.1399 just under the 1.1400 psych level. Higher lows at 1.1378 and 1.1386 (swing low) hold the rising trendline as the USD consolidates on easing yields and EUR shrugs off the German GfK miss. RSI(14) sits at 65, warm but not stretched; ATR runs about 5 pips.
Support: 1.13938, 1.13862, 1.13819
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1443
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.1394 prior high would turn the push through 1.1391 into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1386 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above 1.1400 psych opens the 1.1400–1.1430 resistance zone, with the zone top at 1.1430
Loss of the 1.1382 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and targets the fib 61.8% near 1.1380
Asian range break higher, HL at 1.1378, tight range under session high.
London broke the Asian range top at 1.1382 and printed a 1.1394 session high, marginally above yesterday's NY spike high. The London dip at 1.1378 held as a higher low, and the last two hours have compressed in a 1.1386 range low to 1.1394 band under the 1.1400 round number. EUR shrugged off the soft German GfK print while USD consolidated after DXY's 101.40 high, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) near 5 pips.
Support: 1.1386, 1.1378, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1394, 1.1400
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UMich inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1394 session high tests the 1.1400 round number, the lower edge of the 1.1400–1.1430 resistance zone
Loss of the 1.1386 range low shifts focus to the 1.1378 london dip and the rising trendline
Break below the 1.1368 asian low negates the London breakout
Higher lows since Asia; tight 1.1387–1.1394 band at the session high.
The London leg cleared the Asian high at 1.1382 and Thursday's 1.1391 spike high. It set a 1.1394 session high, now tested three times, and has since compressed into a 1.1387–1.1394 band with the range floor holding. The move fits the digest's USD consolidation on easing yields and softer oil, with the 07:15 higher low at 1.1378 anchoring the sequence just below the 1.1400 round number.
Support: 1.1387, 1.1382, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.1394, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1394 session high brings the 1.1400 round number into play
Loss of the 1.1387 range floor puts the 1.1382 Asian high back in focus as a retest
Failure to hold the 1.1378 higher low breaks the higher-low line and invalidates the London leg
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian range high, retested it, and printed higher highs into the prior-day high.
London open broke the Asian high at 1.1382 and held a retest at the 1.1378 swing low. The rally then marginally cleared yesterday's 1.1391 prior high, but four bars have capped at the 1.1394 session high, with RSI(14) easing from the 60s as USD consolidates softer on lower yields and oil.
Support: 1.1382, 1.1378, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1394, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1394 session high exposes the 1.1400 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1378 swing low breaks the London rising trendline and returns price to the Asian range
Slipping back below the 1.1391 prior high turns the break into a false break at the session high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher; now pressing the prior high near 1.1391.
EUR/USD broke above the 1.1368–1.1382 Asian range before London. The London-open dip to the 1.1378 london low held, and mid-London price is now testing the prior high at 1.1391 with a 1.1394 session high overhead, as USD consolidates on easing yields and reported US-Iran Hormuz talks. RSI(14) near 69 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.1391, 1.1378, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1394, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1391 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1378 london low (61.8% of the Asia-London leg) breaks the higher-low sequence and the trendline
A close above the 1.1394 session high brings the 1.1400 round number into play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Drop back inside the Asian range toward the 1.1368 asian low would neutralise the session breakout
09:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 70 · price 1.13917
HH/HL chain from Asian low; Asian range broken higher.
Pre-London buying broke the 1.1368–1.1382 Asian range at 06:00 UTC. The London open dip to 1.1378 held near the Asian high, and the rally has since cleared yesterday's 1.1391 prior high to a 1.1394 session high as the USD eased on lower oil and Hormuz-talk headlines. RSI(14) is near 70 and the HL trendline from the London low is intact; the 1.1400 round number sits overhead.
Support: 1.13913, 1.1382, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Williams (09:15 UTC), Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.1391 prior high puts the breakout above yesterday's high in question
Break of the HL trendline and loss of the 1.1382 Asian high would put the 50–61.8% fib zone (1.1381–1.1378) and the london low in play
Session high 1.1394 and the 1.1400 round number are the area to watch for rejection or extension
Asian range broken higher; HH/HL chain since early Europe.
Early European hours broke the Asian high at 1.1382. The 1.1378 higher low held at London open, and price is now pressing yesterday's NY prior high at 1.1391 after a marginal push to a 1.1393 session high. The move fits the softer USD as oil and yields eased on US-Iran Hormuz talk; RSI(14) 65 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.1387, 1.1382, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1393
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1393 session high clears the prior high cluster at 1.1391
Loss of the 1.1387 micro low, then the 1.1382 asian high, puts price back inside the Asian range
Break below the 1.1378 higher low and rising support ends the HH/HL sequence; the 38.2% of the Asia-Europe leg sits near 1.1384
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asian low; testing prior high.
The 1.1368–1.1382 Asian range broke higher before London open. The London-open dip held the 1.1378 swing low, and price is now pressing the 1.1392 prior high, with RSI(14) near 72 as the USD eases on cooler yields and oil/Hormuz headlines.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1392, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1392 prior high opens the 1.1400 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1378 swing low breaks the rising lows and puts the 1.1368 asian low back in view
A pullback holding the upper half of the asian leg fib keeps the higher-low sequence intact
Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia; Asian range broken higher.
The early-Europe push broke the Asian high at 1.1382 as the USD eased with oil on Hormuz headlines. The 1.1378 London low held as a higher low above the rising lows from the 1.1368 Asian low. Price is now testing yesterday's NY high at 1.1391, just under the 24h high at 1.1393, with RSI(14) at 74, hot but not extreme.
Support: 1.1382, 1.1378, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1393, 1.1400
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1391 NY high and 1.1393 24h high opens the 1.1400 round number
A drop back below the 1.1382 Asian high and the 1.1378 London low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.1368 Asian low fully unwinds the Asia-London leg
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and final UMich at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, RSI hot · RSI 74 · price 1.13869
London open broke the Asian range high; retest held, higher lows.
London open lifted EURUSD through the Asian high at 1.1382 as DXY eased off 101.40. The dip to the 1.1378 pullback low held near the 50% fib of the Asian low–session high leg. Price is now pressing the 1.1390 session high with RSI(14) near 74.
Support: 1.1382, 1.1378, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1390, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1378 pullback low returns price to the Asian range and exposes the 1.1368 Asian low
Acceptance above the 1.1390 session high opens Thursday's prior high at 1.1399
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the Asian lows · RSI 66 · price 1.1382
Asian range break higher, shallow pullback holding.
Early London broke the 1.1368–1.1382 Asian range to a 1.1390 session high, stalling just under yesterday's NY spike at 1.1391. The pullback held the 1.1378 pullback low, near the 50% fib of the Asian-low-to-high leg, despite a firm USD and the GfK miss. RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1390, 1.1399
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1378 pullback low puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 1.1368 asian low next.
An M15 close above the 1.1390 session high exposes yesterday's 1.1399 prior high.
A drop below the 1.1368 asian low reopens yesterday's 1.1359 swing low.
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), US Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read.
07:31 UTC
Intraday grind higher, stalling at session high · RSI 61 · price 1.13818
Asian range break, rejection at 1.1390, now retesting Asian high.
Price broke the 1.1368–1.1382 Asian range before London, with USD easing off its 101.40 highs, then stalled at a 1.1390 session high just under yesterday's NY spike high. The early-London rejection has pulled price back to retest the Asian high at 1.1380, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asian low to session high rally. RSI(14) is cooling to 61 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1390, 1.1399
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1380 asian high turns the range break into a false break and puts the 1.1368 asian low back in play
An M15 close above the 1.1390 session high opens the path to yesterday's 1.1399 prior high
Failure to hold 1.1368 exposes yesterday's 1.1359 prior low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, US Durables at 12:30 UTC and U-Mich at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the Asian low · RSI 71 · price 1.13852
Asian range broken higher; HH/HL chain from 1.1368 into London open.
EUR/USD cleared the 1.1382 Asian high from the 06:00 UTC bar despite the GfK miss, printing a 1.1390 session high into the London open with RSI(14) near 71 after a 22-pip leg. Yesterday's fade from the 1.1399 prior high twice found a floor at the 1.1359 swing low, and price is now back at the top of that range.
Support: 1.1382, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1390, 1.1399
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1382 asian high, where rising support also sits, keeps the range break intact. A slip back inside reopens the 1.1368 asian low.
M15 close above the 1.1390 session high brings the 1.1399 prior high and 1.1400 round number into view.
Loss of the 1.1359 swing low would break yesterday's floor.
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
07:01 UTC
Short-term uptrend off Asian low, testing resistance · RSI 70 · price 1.13841
Asian range break higher at London open; HH/HL chain since 04:00 UTC.
EURUSD lifted from the 1.1368 Asian low in a higher-low climb and broke the 1.1382 Asian high into London open, printing a session high at 1.1386 despite the GfK miss. RSI(14) is near 70, and the move now sits under yesterday's 1.1391 NY spike high and the 1.1399 prior high, where the IFO-driven pop faded; the 1.1359 prior low marks the base of the dollar-driven slide.
Support: 1.1382, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1386, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1382 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Close above the 1.1391 NY spike high exposes the 1.1399 prior high
Loss of the 1.1368 Asian low negates the Asian low–high advance and reopens the 1.1359 prior low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, US Durables at 12:30 UTC and UMich at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher at the European open, higher lows since the 1.1368 Asian low.
Price cleared the 1.1382 Asian high in the first European hour despite the soft GfK print, running 18 pips off the 1.1368 Asian low. It now sits just below yesterday's 1.1391 NY spike high, with the 1.1400 IFO high capping the range and the 1.1359 NY low as the floor. RSI(14) near 77 is hot for the size of the move against a still-firm dollar backdrop.
Support: 1.1382, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1382 Asian high keeps the breakout intact; a slip back inside the Asian range reads as a false break
M15 close above the 1.1391 NY spike hi exposes the 1.1400 IFO high
Loss of the 1.1368 Asian low reopens the 1.1359 NY low
GDP QoQ 07:00 UTC and Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC could shift this read, with US Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC later
06:31 UTC
Sideways, short-term bid off Asian low · RSI 70 · price 1.13827
Higher lows since 04:00 UTC, probing Asian range top.
Ahead of London open, EUR/USD is edging above the Asian high at 1.1382 on a rising-lows sequence off the 1.1368 Asian low. RSI(14) is near 70 and ATR is only about 3 pips. The move stays inside yesterday's 1.1359 prior low to 1.1399 prior high span, with the 1.1391 NY spike high the first cap while USD holds firm on Fed hike pricing.
Support: 1.1382, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1382 Asian high marks the push as a false break of the Asian range
Loss of the rising-lows line and the 1.1368 Asian low reopens the 1.1359 prior low
Acceptance above the 1.1391 NY spike high brings the 1.1399 prior high and 1.1400 into play
EZ GDP at 07:00 UTC, Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Sideways, below prior-day high · RSI 51 · price 1.13752
Asian range 1.1368–1.1382 inside prior-day 1.1359–1.1399 range.
Asia held a tight 1.1368–1.1382 range, and price sits mid-range into London open. That is also the 50% retrace of yesterday's NY spike from the 1.1391 ny high to 1.1359. The 1.1359 prior low absorbed three tests yesterday, while rebounds stalled well below the 1.1399 day high as firm USD on Fed hike repricing capped EUR.
Support: 1.13679, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.13819, 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1368 asian low exposes the 1.1359 prior low
Close above the 1.1382 asian high opens the 1.1391 ny high and 1.1399 day high
EZ GDP at 07:00 UTC and Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could break the Asian range
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read in NY session
Late Asia session, about 75 minutes before London open. Price is back at the 50% of the 1.1368–1.1382 Asian range after higher lows off the asian low, with a flat ema20 and EMA50 converged near 1.1373 and ATR compressed to about 3 pips. Yesterday the 1.1399 prior high was sold as USD firmed on hawkish Williams remarks, and the NY spike to 1.1391 was rejected. The 1.1359 prior low held twice.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1382 asian high opens the 1.1391 ny spike high and the 1.1399 prior high
Loss of the 1.1368 asian low exposes the 1.1359 prior low, with the 1.1325–1.1350 support zone below
Failure to hold the ema20 at 1.1373 keeps price pinned to the lower half of the asian range fib
GfK at 06:00 UTC and GDP at 07:00 UTC land into London open. Williams at 09:15 UTC could break the compressed range
Tight Asian range under a descending line of lower highs.
Asia held a narrow 1.1368–1.1382 range, with the asian high sitting beneath a line of lower highs from yesterday's 1.1399 prior high and the 1.1391 ny high. Price is at 1.1374 off the asian low, flat on EMA20/50 with RSI(14) neutral near 48. The 1.1359 prior low held twice through London and NY as Williams' hawkish remarks and 5.14% yields kept EUR capped.
Support: 1.13679, 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13819, 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1382 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 1.1391 ny high
Loss of the 1.1368 asian low exposes the 1.1359 prior low, with the 1.1350 support zone below
London open at 07:00 UTC, with German GfK and GDP, is likely to resolve the Asian range
Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range pinned at its low, lower highs since Thursday's NY spike high.
Late Asia session: EUR/USD is pressed against the 1.1368 Asian low after fading from the 1.1382 Asian high. That fade extends a lower-highs sequence from Thursday's 1.1391 spike high as hawkish Fed repricing keeps USD bid. Thursday's 1.1359 swing low held twice, and ATR below 3 pips reflects compressed pre-London conditions.
Support: 1.13679, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.13819, 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1368 Asian low exposes Thursday's 1.1359 swing low
Recovery through the 1.1382 Asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 1.1391 spike high
London open (07:00 UTC) with German GfK/GDP data due 06:00–07:00 UTC is the first test of the 14-pip Asian range
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), US Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Acceptance above Thursday's 1.1399 prior high voids the lower-highs structure
05:01 UTC
Sideways, soft within day range · RSI 37 · price 1.13701
Lower highs inside 1.1359–1.1399 range.
Late Asia session is pressing the Asian low at 1.1368, the floor of a 1.1368–1.1382 range, below both EMAs. Yesterday's range held between the 1.1399 prior high and a 1.1359 swing low tested three times. Rebounds have printed lower highs from 1.1391 to the 1.1382 Asian high as the hawkish Fed repricing and firm US yields kept USD bid despite the German IFO beat.
Support: 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1399
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1368 Asian low into London open exposes the 1.1359 swing low
An M15 close below the 1.1359 swing low breaks the day's range floor
A recovery above the 1.1382 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line; the 1.1399 prior high sits above
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, US Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Drifting lower, lower highs inside day range · RSI 33 · price 1.13691
Lower highs from 1.1399; price at Asian low, 1.1359 floor intact.
Late Asia session: EURUSD was rejected at the 1.1382 asian high at 01:00 UTC and has slipped to the 1.1368 asian low. That extends a lower-highs sequence from Thursday's 1.1399 london high and the 1.1391 ny high, while the 1.1359 day low (tested at 13:15 and 18:00 UTC) still holds as USD stays bid on Fed-hike repricing.
Support: 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1368 asian low exposes the 1.1359 day low
Failure to hold 1.1359 confirms a lower-low out of the day range
Close above the 1.1382 asian high breaks the lower highs line; 1.1391 ny high and 1.1399 london high sit above
German GfK 06:00 UTC, Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower in late Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.13695
Range 1.1359–1.1399; lower highs, Asian compression near range mid.
The post-IFO day high at 1.1399 was sold as hawkish Fed repricing and 19-year-high US yields kept USD bid. The range low at 1.1359 held twice across London and NY hours, while the NY high at 1.1391 and the Asian high at 1.1382 form lower highs. Price is pinned at the asian low near 1.1368 on a thin ~3-pip ATR, below both EMAs, ahead of London open.
Support: 1.13679, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.13819, 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.1368 puts the 1.1359 range low back in play; failure there opens the 1.1340/50 zone
Reclaim of the asian high at 1.1382 breaks the lower highs line and shifts focus to the 1.1391 ny high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
German GfK at 06:00 UTC lands around London open; the digest expects limited EUR/USD impact
04:16 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower inside day range · RSI 42 · price 1.1368
1.1359–1.1399 range with lower highs; late Asia pressing session low.
EURUSD has held a 1.1359–1.1399 range for 24h. The prior high at 1.1399 was set on the IFO beat, followed by lower highs at the 1.1391 ny high and the 1.1382 asian high as the USD bid held. Late Asia is sitting on the asian low at 1.1368, below EMA20/50, with the triple-tested prior low at 1.1359 just 9 pips beneath.
Support: 1.1368, 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1359 prior low breaks the range and exposes the 1.1350 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1382 asian high and the lower-highs trendline weakens the range-top pressure read
London open around 07:00 UTC typically expands on the ~3-pip Asian ATR; a test of the 1.1391 ny high or the 1.1399 prior high would come on that expansion
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside 1.1359–1.1399 range, pressing asian low.
Late Asia session is drifting onto the asian low at 1.1368 after the 1.1382 asian high failed. That extends a lower-high sequence from the rejected 1.1391 NY high, keeping price well below Thursday's 1.1399 day high as the yield-driven USD bid persists. Thursday's double low at 1.1359 is the next reference below.
Support: 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1368 breaks the asian low and exposes the 1.1359 double low
Reclaim of the 1.1382 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and returns focus to the 1.1391 ny high and 1.1399 day high
Euro-area GDP at 07:00 UTC around London open and Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could shift this read
03:46 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower in late Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.13682
Lower highs off the Asian high, testing the Asian low inside Thursday's range.
Late Asia session: price is pressing the asian low at 1.1368 after lower highs from the 1.1382 asian high, sitting at the 23.6% level of Thursday's 1.1359–1.1399 range. USD firmness on hawkish Fedspeak and 5.14% yields capped the IFO-driven push to the thu high near 1.1400, and the thu low has held twice since.
Support: 1.1368, 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1368 asian low extends the lower highs toward the 1.1359 thu low
Failure to hold the 1.1359 thu low breaks Thursday's range, with 1.1350 psych next
Reclaim of the 1.1382 asian high neutralises the lower highs; 1.1399 thu high caps above
EZ GDP 07:00 UTC, Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.1359–1.1391 range; Asia pressing its session low.
Late Asia session is sitting on the 1.1369 Asian low after a failed push to the 1.1382 Asian high, eroding the quiet 1.1370–1.1380 overnight band. The broader 24h picture is a 1.1359–1.1391 range under lower highs from the 1.1399 day high. Buyers stepped in twice at the 1.1359 day low while Fed-hike pricing keeps USD bid.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.1369 Asian low shifts focus to the 1.1359 day low; a break there extends the lower-high sequence
M15 close above the 1.1382 Asian high and the lower-highs line near the 1.1391 NY high reopens the 1.1399 day high
London open plus EZ GDP (07:00 UTC) sets the session range; Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.1359–1.1391 range since London midday, highs compressing.
EURUSD faded from Thursday's 1.1399 day high as hawkish Fedspeak and firm US data lifted USD. It has since held a 1.1359–1.1391 range, with the swing low defended repeatedly and highs capped along a descending trendline. Late Asia is pressing the asian low at 1.1370, RSI(14) near 42 and ATR under 4 pips.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.1370 exposes the 1.1359 swing low, the floor of the range
Close above the asian high at 1.1382 breaks the descending trendline and lower-high sequence, bringing the ny high at 1.1391 into view
Only a recovery through the day high at 1.1399 would negate the lower-high structure
EZ GDP (07:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) land in London hours and could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 1.13767
Tight Asian range inside prior-day 1.1359–1.1399 range.
Late Asia session is compressing in a 1.1370–1.1382 Asian range, near the midpoint of the 1.1399–1.1359 drop, after the IFO-driven day high faded on USD strength from hawkish Fedspeak and 5.14% long-end yields. Demand held the 1.1359 day low twice during NY hours. The 16:15 UTC spike to the 1.1391 NY high was fully rejected; RSI(14) is flat at 50 and ATR is about 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1382 asian high or the 1.1370 asian low at London open sets the session direction
Loss of the 1.1359 day low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1325–1.1350 zone
Reclaim of the 1.1391 ny high puts the 1.1399 day high and 1.1400 back in focus
EZ GfK (06:00 UTC), GDP (07:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) could break the Asian range
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.1370–1.1382 inside yesterday's 1.1359–1.1399 range.
Yesterday's prior high at 1.1399, set after the IFO beat, faded as hawkish Fedspeak and higher US yields lifted USD. The NY high at 1.1391 extended a lower-highs sequence, while swing lows near 1.1360 held three times. Early Asia session is compressing mid-range at 1.1376, holding between the asian low at 1.1370 and the asian high at 1.1382 near the 50% of the late NY swing, with ATR(14) down to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
Break of the asian high at 1.1382 tests the lower-highs line and the ny high at 1.1391
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.1370 exposes the 1.1360 swing lows
EZ GfK (06:00 UTC) and GDP (07:00 UTC) could set the London open range; Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC is the larger USD risk
M15 close below 1.1360 breaks the range floor and invalidates the range read
02:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.13763
Tight Asian range inside prior-day 1.1359–1.1399 range.
Early Asia session is compressing in a 12-pip band between the asian low at 1.1370 and the asian high at 1.1382. Price sits near the 50% retrace of yesterday's slide from the 1.1399 day high, which faded after hawkish Williams commentary. The 1.1359 double low held through NY hours, and the 1.1391 ny spike high was rejected. RSI(14) is flat near 49 and ATR is only ~3 pips, so no setup is in play.
Support: 1.13697, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.13819, 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1382 asian high opens a retest of the 1.1391 ny spike, then the 1.1399 day high
Failure to hold the 1.1370 asian low exposes the 1.1359 double low; a break there turns the range into a lower-low
EZ GDP at 07:00 UTC around London open and Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could break the Asian compression
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Sideways, contracting after failed London rally · RSI 48 · price 1.13755
Lower highs from 1.1399 against higher lows from 1.1359; Asian range 1.1370–1.1382.
The london high at 1.1399 capped yesterday before hawkish Fed talk from Williams and 5.14% long-end yields pulled EURUSD back. The day low at 1.1359 held twice, and the NY spike to the ny high at 1.1391 faded. Mid-Asia, price is compressing inside a 1.1370–1.1382 range between the lower-highs and higher-lows lines, pinned to ema20 with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high 1.1382 puts the lower-highs line near 1.1386 and the ny high 1.1391 in play
Only a break of the london high 1.1399 invalidates the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the asian low 1.1370 and the higher-lows line exposes the day low at 1.1359
GfK (06:00 UTC) and EZ GDP (07:00 UTC) around London open, then Williams at 09:15 UTC, could break the compression
02:01 UTC
Sideways after London selloff, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 1.13752
Range 1.1359–1.1399, tight Asian range inside.
Early Asia session, and EUR/USD is compressing in a 1.1370–1.1382 Asian range near the 38.2% retrace of the London drop from the 1.1399 day high. Hawkish Williams comments and 5.14% yields drove that drop. Buyers held the 1.1359 day low twice during NY hours, the 1.1391 NY high was rejected, and with RSI(14) at 47 and ATR near 3 pips no setup is in play.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.1370 exposes the 1.1359 day low
Close above the asian high at 1.1382 brings the 1.1391 ny high and 1.1399 day high back into view
GfK (06:00 UTC), EZ GDP (07:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) could break the Asian range at London open
01:46 UTC
Sideways, lower highs over a flat floor · RSI 50 · price 1.13761
1.1359–1.1399 range; Asia compressing at mid-range.
London's early push to the 1.1399 day high faded as USD firmed on hawkish Fed talk. The 1.1391 NY high then set a lower high, while the 1.1359–1.1362 triple low held through London and NY. Asia is compressing inside a 1.1370 asian low to 1.1382 asian high band at mid-range, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR at about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
A break of the asian high at 1.1382 or the asian low at 1.1370 sets the tone into London open
An M15 close below the 1.1359 triple low breaks the range floor
A close above the 1.1391 ny high breaks the lower-highs line, putting the 1.1399 day high in play
EZ GDP (07:00 UTC), Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Range after London selloff, Asia bounce · RSI 60 · price 1.13813
Double bottom at 1.1360, higher low into Asia, testing session high.
Buyers defended the 1.1360 double bottom twice during NY hours, and early Asia printed a higher low at the 1.1370 Asian low before pushing to a 1.1382 session high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of yesterday's London selloff. The bounce runs against a USD bid on hawkish Fedspeak that capped every rally yesterday, with the 1.1391 NY high overhead.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1391 NY high reclaims the upper half of yesterday's range and puts the 1.1399 day high in play
Failure to hold the 1.1382 session high and a slip below the 1.1370 Asian low marks a false break back into the range
Break of the 1.1360 double bottom opens the 1.1325-50 support zone
EZ GDP at 07:00 UTC around London open and Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could reset the range
01:16 UTC
Range after intraday selloff, lower highs intact · RSI 47 · price 1.13751
Tight Asian range 1.1370–1.1380 beneath a lower-highs sequence; day low 1.1359 tested twice.
Yesterday's London high at 1.1399 gave way to a 40-pip drop into the 1.1359 day low, tested twice. NY's spike to 1.1391 (spike high) was rejected, extending the lower-highs trendline as USD stayed bid on October Fed-hike pricing. Asia session is compressing between the 1.1370 Asian low and 1.1380 Asian high, near the 38.2% of the London-NY drop fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.13697, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.13802, 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1380 Asian high opens a test of the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1391 spike high
Failure to hold the 1.1370 Asian low reopens the 1.1359 day low
A move back above the 1.1399 London high would invalidate the lower-highs read
GfK (06:00 UTC) and EZ GDP (07:00 UTC) around London open, then Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, could break the Asian range
Tight Asian range 1.1370–1.1380 inside a 1.1359–1.1399 day range.
Early Asia session is holding a 10-pip range of 1.1370–1.1380, with price pressing the Asian low. Yesterday's London push to the 1.1399 day high reversed as hawkish Fed talk kept USD firm, and the day low at 1.1359 held twice. The NY spike to 1.1391 faded, and lower highs are now capping near the Asian high, around the 50% of the day high to low fib.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1370 Asian low exposes the 1.1359 day low
Reclaiming the 1.1380 Asian high breaks the lower highs line and brings the 1.1391 NY spike into play
London open and EZ GDP at 07:00 UTC may break the Asian range
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Sideways to soft, drifting to the Asian low · RSI 36 · price 1.13717
Range 1.1359–1.1391 after London's rejection at 1.1399, with lower highs.
The German IFO beat lifted the pair to the London high at 1.1399. That move was rejected, and dollar strength capped the pair in a 1.1359–1.1391 range, with a double low at 1.1359 and a lower NY spike high at 1.1391. The Asian session is quiet in a 1.1371–1.1380 band, and price is pressing the Asian low with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR only ~3 pips.
Support: 1.13713, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1371 Asian low exposes the 1.1359 double low
Break of 1.1359 would end the range read and confirm a lower-low
Reclaim of the 1.1380 Asian high breaks the lower-high trendline; the NY spike high at 1.1391 is next
GfK (06:00 GMT) and EZ GDP (07:00 GMT) around London open, then US Durables at 12:30 UTC, could expand the range
00:31 UTC
Sideways, soft drift lower in early Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.13719
Lower highs from 1.1399 over a flat 1.1359 base; tight Asian range.
London's IFO-beat spike to the 1.1399 london high faded as the dollar bid held. NY then tested the 1.1359 day low for a third time, and the 1.1391 ny spike set another lower high. Early Asia session is compressing between the 1.1371 late ny low and the 1.1380 asian high, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR down to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1371 late ny low puts the 1.1359 day low back in play
Break under the 1.1359 day low ends the range read after three holds
Close above the 1.1380 asian high reopens the 1.1391 ny spike and 1.1399 london high
EZ GfK 06:00 and GDP 07:00 GMT, Williams 09:15 UTC, then US Durables 12:30 and UoM 14:00 UTC could reset the range
00:16 UTC
Sideways after London sell-off, lower highs intact · RSI 42 · price 1.13731
Lower highs from 1.1399 London high over twin lows near 1.1359; tight post-NY range 1.1370–1.1380.
The London high at 1.1399 failed as a hawkish-Fed USD bid drove EURUSD to twin day lows near 1.1359. The ny spike to 1.1391 set a lower high, and price has since compressed between the late-ny low at 1.1370 and the late-ny high at 1.1380 into early Asia session, sitting at the range floor with ATR shrinking below 3 pips.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1370 late-ny low reopens the 1.1359 day low; a break there invalidates the double bottom read
Close above the 1.1380 late-ny high and the lower-high trendline brings the 1.1391 ny spike into play
Break of the 1.1399 london high negates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Range after rejected London high, quiet Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.13765
1.1359–1.1391 range, compressing post-rollover.
The German IFO beat sparked an early London push to the 1.1399 day high, but it was rejected as the dollar bid resumed. NY then built a 1.1359–1.1391 range, with a double low at the 1.1359 day low and a failed ny spike to 1.1391. Early Asia trade is compressing at 1.1375–1.1380, just above ema20 and at the 50% fib of the sell-off. No setup in play.
Support: 1.13706, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.13802, 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1380 late high and 50% fib reopens the 1.1391 ny spike, then the 1.1399 day high
Break of the 1.1371 late low exposes the 1.1359 day low; failure there extends the lower-low sequence
EZ GfK (06:00 UTC) and GDP (07:00 UTC) are due within the next 8h. Williams (09:15 UTC) and US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) follow later Friday and could materially shift this read