EUR/USD AI Live Scan, daily chart, Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:39 UTC
Downtrend since late August, RSI near oversold · RSI 30 · price 1.13688
Lower highs from 1.1711, pressing the 4-month base.
Month-long downtrend from the 21 Aug 1.1711 high, with a lower high at 1.1654 on 9 Sep and a full retracement of the August rally. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 on D1 and RSI is near 30, after a hawkish Fed and a wider 2y UST/EGB spread drove a roughly 2.4% September decline despite ECB hike chatter. The pair is now retesting the 1.1325–1.1355 base: the ytd low from June, with the July and 28 Sep sep low just above.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1490, 1.1654
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 1.1324 ytd low breaks the four-month base and exposes 1.1270
Recovery through the 1.1410 minor high, then the fib 38.2 near 1.1490, would show the base holding
A close back above the 1.1654 lower high would invalidate the lower-highs trendline read
Wed euro-area CPI plus US PCE/ADP, and NFP later in the week, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 1.1711 August high; retesting the June/July base.
EURUSD has been in a downtrend since the 1.1711 August high. A lower high at 1.1654 in early September preceded a roughly 360-pip slide back to the july low at 1.1353, with price below both EMAs and EMA(50) rolling over. The September leg tracks hawkish-Fed repricing and wider rate spreads, and price now sits just above the 1.1324 ytd low from June with RSI near 31, soft but not yet oversold.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1490, 1.1654
What it said to watch
A daily close below the 1.1324 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence, with 1.1270 the next reference.
Holding the july low and the ytd low zone would leave a potential base in place, but only a recovery above the 1.1410 swing high breaks the September lower-high chain.
A move back through the fib 38.2 at 1.1490 would put the downtrend read into question. The lower high at 1.1654 caps the broader structure.
Euro-area CPI/HICP and US ADP/PCE on Wed, then NFP later this week, could materially shift this read.
16:27 UTC
Downtrend since late-August peak, pressing the lows · RSI 29 · price 1.13688
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1711 Aug 21 high, now testing the Jun–Jul base at 1.1324–1.1353.
EURUSD has carved a month-long downtrend of lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1711 Aug 21 peak. The Sep 8 lower high at 1.1654 capped the only rebound, and price has since slid about 300 pips below a falling EMA(50), with widening 2y UST/EGB spreads and a hawkish Fed repricing driving the September drop. Price now sits on the Jul 28 / Sep 28 swing low at 1.1353, just above the june low of 1.1324, with daily RSI in oversold territory.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1490, 1.1654
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 1.1324 june low confirms a fresh lower low and opens the next support at 1.1270
Daily close back above the 1.1410 sep 25 high would be the first higher high since the August peak
A recovery through the 38.2% fib near 1.1490 would bring the descending trendline from the lower high at 1.1654 back into view
US ADP, PCE and GDP on Wed, then NFP later this week, could materially shift this read