Friday NY selloff, capped bounce, Sunday gap-down into a tight range.
Friday's NY session reversed from the 1.3434 friday high to a 1.3374 friday low. The bounce stalled at the 50% retrace near 1.3406, and late-Friday trade held below a 1.3397 range top. Sunday's open gapped about 7 pips lower and the early Asia session has dipped to a 1.3381 sunday low, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs ahead of a thin, catalyst-free start to the week.
Support: 1.33806, 1.33737
Resistance: 1.33973, 1.34057, 1.34336
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.3381 sunday low exposes the 1.3374 friday low; failure there extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.3397 range top fills the weekend gap and reopens the 50% retrace at 1.3406
Rejection again at the 50% retrace keeps the post-selloff structure intact
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; BoE Thu is the larger GBP-side risk
23:31 UTC
Sideways after Friday's NY sell-off · RSI 46 · price 1.3391
Range 1.3374–1.3406 below Friday's 1.3434 high.
The weekly open gapped about 7 pips below Friday's 1.3393 close to a 1.3381 sun low. It has since filled back to 1.3391, inside the 1.3374–1.3406 range that formed after Friday's NY sell-off from the 1.3434 fri high. The ny bounce stalled near 50% of the sell-off fib at 1.3406; early Asia session trade is thin, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.3381, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3397, 1.3406, 1.3434
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3397 range top, then the 1.3406 ny bounce, opens the 61.8% fib at 1.3411 and the 1.3434 fri high
Failure to hold the 1.3381 sun low exposes the 1.3374 fri ny low; a break there ends the range read
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) is the first USD catalyst; BoE Thursday remains the main GBP driver
Lower highs from 1.3434; tight 1.3381–1.3397 range after Sunday gap.
Friday's London rally to 1.3434 reversed sharply in NY to a 1.3374 friday low. Price then chopped inside the 1.3380–1.3406 band. The Sunday open gapped about 7 pips lower, dipped to a 1.3381 sunday low and has almost filled the gap, with price below EMA20/50 under the 1.3397 range top, the 38.2% fib of the NY drop.
Support: 1.3381, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3397, 1.3406
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3397 range top exposes the 1.3406 lower high and the descending trendline
Break of the 1.3381 sunday low exposes the 1.3374 friday low and extends the lower-high sequence
Thin Asia session liquidity at the weekly open; US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC is the next USD catalyst, with BoE Thursday the bigger GBP risk
23:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Friday high, drifting lower on the open · RSI 34 · price 1.33818
Lower high at 1.3406 after NY rejection; weekend gap below Friday close.
Friday's London run to the 1.3434 Friday high was rejected in NY, a 60-pip drop to the 1.3374 Friday low. The rebound stalled at 1.3406, the Asian high and the 50% level of the NY selloff fib. Sunday opened 7 pips below Friday's close, leaving a gap fill at 1.3392, and thin early-Asia trade is probing the 1.3379 NY base with RSI(14) near 34 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.3379, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3392, 1.3406, 1.3434
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.3379 NY base exposes the 1.3374 Friday low and confirms a lower low
A gap fill back above 1.3392 returns price to Friday's late 1.3385–1.3397 range and neutralises the drift
Only a recovery through the 1.3406 Asian high reopens the 1.3434 Friday high
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) is the next scheduled driver; BoE decision Thursday overshadows the week
22:46 UTC
Pullback after failed London high, now flat · RSI 43 · price 1.33869
NY reversal, then a range under the 38.2% fib.
Friday's London extension on BoE hike pricing topped at the 1.3434 london high, and NY reversed the whole move to a 1.3374 ny low just under the Asian range. The bounce stalled at the 1.3406 bounce high, near the 50% fib, and late Friday ranged beneath the 1.3397 range top at the 38.2% fib. Monday's week open gapped about 7 pips lower to 1.3385 in thin early Asia trade.
Support: 1.33852, 1.33737
Resistance: 1.33973, 1.34057, 1.34336
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3397 range top reopens the 1.3406 bounce high and the 50% fib
Failure to hold the 1.3385 week open exposes the 1.3374 ny low
Only a reclaim of the 1.3434 london high would undo Friday's rejection
Thin Asia session; London open likely sets Monday's first real range ahead of US ISM at 15:00 UTC
22:31 UTC
Range after NY reversal, below EMAs · RSI 42 · price 1.33873
Sunday reopen gapped lower into Friday's late NY range; lower half of 1.3384–1.3397.
The week reopened in early Asia session with a 7-pip gap lower to 1.3385, inside Friday's late NY range between the 1.3384 range low and the 1.3397 range top. Friday's London push to the 1.3434 friday high, on the BoE-hike bid, was fully reversed in NY down to the 1.3374 ny low. The bounce stalled near 1.3406, the Friday Asian high, and the late range top sits on the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off. RSI(14) is near 42 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3384, 1.33737
Resistance: 1.3397, 1.3406, 1.34336
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3397 range top and the 7-pip gap fill reopens 1.3406, the Friday Asian high and the 50–61.8% fib zone
Failure to hold the 1.3384 range low exposes the 1.3374 ny low
Recovery through 1.3406 shifts focus back to the 1.3434 friday high
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7) is the next scheduled catalyst; BoE Thursday is the week's dominant risk for Cable
22:16 UTC
Range after Friday's NY reversal, lower highs · RSI 49 · price 1.33873
Friday high 1.3434 rejected; 1.3384–1.3397 range, small weekend gap down.
Friday's London push to the friday high at 1.3434, on BoE hike pricing, fully unwound in NY with a drop to the friday low at 1.3374. The bounce stalled at the 50% fib near 1.3406, just under the asian high, and price then compressed under lower highs into a 1.3384–1.3397 range. Sunday reopened with a ~7-pip gap down that is holding just above the late NY low; RSI(14) is neutral near 49.
Support: 1.3384, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3397, 1.3406, 1.3434
What it said to watch
M15 close below the late NY low at 1.3384 exposes the friday low at 1.3374
Break of the range top at 1.3397 and the lower-highs line reopens 1.3406, where the asian high and 50% fib sit
Gap fill back to 1.3393 in thin early Asia trade would neutralise the gap read
Nothing scheduled in the next 8h; US ISM Mfg (Mon 15:00 UTC, f/c 54.7) is the next USD driver, BoE Thursday the main GBP risk
22:01 UTC
Rally fully retraced, flat into Friday close · RSI 51 · price 1.33925
London break of Asian high failed; tight late-NY range 1.3384–1.3397.
London cleared the Asian range high near 1.3407 and ran to a session high at 1.3434 on BoE hike pricing, but NY unwound the whole leg to a session low at 1.3374, back at the Asian low. Friday closed inside a 1.3384 late low to 1.3397 range top band, below EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral near 51, about 31% back up the selloff fib.
Support: 1.3384, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3397, 1.3405, 1.3434
What it said to watch
Monday Asia open gap away from the 1.3384–1.3397 range sets the first structural read
M15 close above the 1.3405 ny high reopens the 1.3434 session high
Failure to hold 1.3374 session low confirms a lower-low below the Asian range
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7) could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Sideways after NY-session reversal · RSI 51 · price 1.33925
Late-NY range 1.3384–1.3397 beneath the 38.2% retrace of the 1.3434–1.3374 drop.
London broke the Asian high and ran to a 1.3434 session high. From the NY open the pair unwound the whole move to a 1.3374 ny low, a reversal against the GBP-bid tone into next week's BoE. Friday closed at 1.3392 inside a late-NY range of 1.3384–1.3397, with the range top repeatedly rejected at the 38.2% fib of the drop.
Support: 1.3384, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3397, 1.3405, 1.3434
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3397 range top clears the 38.2% fib and exposes the 1.3405 swing high (50% retrace)
Failure to hold the 1.3384 range low reopens the 1.3374 ny low
Monday open may gap away from the 1.3392 Friday close; the range read holds only if price reopens inside 1.3384–1.3397
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7) could break the range
Recovery toward the 1.3434 session high would require clearing both fib levels first
21:31 UTC
Sideways after a sharp intraday reversal · RSI 52 · price 1.33925
Lower high below 1.3434 session high, late compression 1.3384–1.3397.
Friday's London push on BoE-hike positioning printed a 1.3434 session high, then reversed hard through the London-NY transition to a 1.3374 NY low. Price recovered to a 1.3405 swing high and has since compressed between a 1.3384 swing low and a 1.3397 range top, capped at the 38.2% retracement of the drop. RSI(14) is flat near 52 and ATR is down to about 6 pips into the weekly close.
Support: 1.3384, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3397, 1.3405, 1.3434
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3397 range top / 38.2% fib opens the 1.3405 swing high (50% retrace)
Failure to hold the 1.3384 swing low exposes the 1.3374 NY low
Sunday open gap could reset the late-Friday range before Asia session establishes its own range
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7) could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Range after failed London push · RSI 51 · price 1.33925
Lower highs compressing into a 1.3385–1.3397 range.
London carried the BoE-driven GBP bid through the asian high to a 1.3434 session high. NY then reversed it during the US data block, sweeping the 1.3374 session low before recovering. Price closed the week compressing beneath lower highs, inside a 1.3385 ny range low to 1.3397 range cap, with the range cap sitting at the 38.2% fib.
Support: 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3397, 1.3406, 1.3434
What it said to watch
Monday Asia open gap risk: a move outside 1.3385–1.3397 resolves the compression
Close above the range cap and the lower highs line points to a retest of the 1.3406 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.3385 ny range low exposes the 1.3374 session low
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7) could materially shift this read
21:01 UTC
Range after NY reversal, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 1.33925
Post-NY compression; lower high at 1.3406 under the 1.3434 London high.
London took Cable to a 1.3434 London high as GBP stayed bid into next week's BoE. The NY open brought a rejection and a 60-pip slide to the 1.3374 NY low. The bounce stalled at 1.3406, and price closed the week compressed between the 1.3390 range floor and the 1.3397 range cap, which sits on the 38.2% retrace of the NY sell-off. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR(14) has shrunk to about 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.3390, 1.33838, 1.33737
Resistance: 1.33973, 1.34057, 1.34336
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3397 range cap and 38.2% retrace opens 1.3406 post-NY high, then the 1.3434 London high
Failure at the 1.3390 range floor exposes the 1.3384 swing low and the 1.3374 NY low
Weekend gap risk at the Asia open; Monday ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC, f/c 54.7) is the first USD-side test of this range