The USD bid broke the Asian range low near 1.3250 during NY hours and sent price to a 1.3221 session low, retested at 17:45 UTC, extending GBP's three-day slide. Since then price has compressed between the session low and a 1.3239 range top, capped by the ema20 at 1.3235 and the ema50 at 1.3242. ATR has contracted to 5.1 pips; a mild dip after Williams' 23:30 UTC remarks left price near the lower half, with the 1.3224 rollover low the nearest floor.
Support: 1.32242, 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3235, 1.32389, 1.32419
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3221 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.3200 psych level
Close above the 1.3239 range top and ema20 breaks the lower-highs line and puts the ema50 / 38.2% fib zone near 1.3242 in play
Hold of the 1.3224 rollover low keeps the compression range intact into Asia session
US PPI (Fri 13:30 UTC) is the next material driver; a hot print could break this range lower
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 46 · price 1.32339
Tight range 1.3221–1.3244 after NY selloff, lower highs.
The extended USD bid pushed GBPUSD below the Asian range low near 1.3250 in NY hours, printing a 1.3221 ny low near four-week lows, retested at 1.3222 later in the session. Price has since compressed under the ema20 (1.3235) and ema50 (1.3242). The late high at 1.3239 and bounce high at 1.3244, near the 38.2% retrace of the NY selloff, cap the range as ATR(14) shrinks to 5.2 pips.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3244
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3244 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and the ema50
Loss of the 1.3221 ny low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.3200 psych level
Fed's Williams speaking now and US PPI (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Tight post-NY range 1.3234–1.3239 above 1.3221 lows.
Cable is consolidating in a 1.3234–1.3239 range into the early Asia session. The NY slide on hawkish Fedspeak bottomed at the 1.3221 ny low, and a late-NY retest held, leaving an unconfirmed double bottom. Price sits just above the ema20 at 1.32355 and below the ema50 at 1.32427, with RSI(14) neutral at 48.7 and ATR(14) compressed to 5.3 pips.
Support: 1.32355, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3244
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, minutes away, could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 1.3239 range top and the 1.3244 swing high, which sits near the ema50 and the 38.2% fib of the NY drop, would confirm the double bottom
Failure at the 1.3221 ny low exposes the 1.3200 figure flagged in the digest
Tight 1.3222–1.3244 range after the NY sell-off, early Asia.
Hawkish Fedspeak (Hammack) drove a 53-pip NY sell-off from 1.3274 to the 1.3221 ny low. The retest at 1.3222 held, forming a possible double bottom. Price is now coiling under the late ny high at 1.3239 and the ema50 at 1.3243, just below the flat ema20, with RSI 47 and ATR compressed to 5.5 pips in early Asia.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32389, 1.3243
What it said to watch
Close above 1.3244 (ema50 and rebound high) completes the double bottom; the 38.2% of the NY sell-off fib sits at 1.3241
Failure to hold the 1.3222 ny low opens the 1.3200 psych figure
Fed's Williams speaks at 23:30 UTC (in ~30 min) and could break the compression
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major USD catalyst
Tight post-NY range above the 1.3221 double low, capped under ema50.
The NY session slide from 1.3274 came as Hammack's hawkish Fed remarks drove USD higher. It printed the ny low at 1.3221, and a second test at 1.3222 held. Since then price has held a narrow 1.3225–1.3239 range below the range top, with a thin rollover low at 1.3224 also respected. It sits on the ema20 at 1.3236 and under the ema50 at 1.3243, near the 38.2% retrace of the NY sell-off, while ATR(14) has compressed from 9.1 to 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.32355, 1.32242, 1.32209
Resistance: 1.32389, 1.32433, 1.32791
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, in about 44 minutes, could break the compression either way
An M15 close above the ema50 at 1.3243 (sell-off fib 38.2%) puts the double bottom neckline in play and opens the 1.3274–1.3279 london high zone
Failure to hold the ny low at 1.3221 extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3200 figure
US PPI on Friday at 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled driver of this structure
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY sell-off · RSI 46 · price 1.32352
Post-NY range 1.3221–1.3244 below falling lower highs.
Cable slid from the NY high at 1.3274 to a session low at 1.3221 as the USD bid held on hawkish Fedspeak, then a second test at 1.3222 held. Since then it has compressed in a 1.3221–1.3244 range under a line of lower highs, sitting just below the ema20 at 1.3236. The range top at 1.3244 lines up with the ema50. RSI(14) is neutral at 46.3, ATR(14) has shrunk to 5.8 pips, and the thin rollover low at 1.3224 held.
Support: 1.32242, 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32355, 1.3244, 1.32741
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~1h) could break the post-NY compression
M15 close above the 1.3244 range top clears the lower-highs line and the ema50
Failure to hold the 1.3221 session low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major driver for USD
Lower highs from 1.3282 Asia high; base forming at 1.3221–1.3224.
Cable broke below the Asian range low near 1.3250 during NY hours on a broad USD bid and set a session low at the 1.3221 ny low. The rebound stalled at 1.3244, where the ema50 also sits, and each high since has come in lower. The thin rollover dip to 1.3224 held above that low, and price sits below the ema20 and ema50 with RSI at 38.8 and ATR compressing to 5.8 pips.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32356, 1.32389, 1.3244
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3244 ema50 and the lower-highs line breaks the lower high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3221 ny low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could reprice USD in thin Asia session liquidity
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major USD catalyst for this structure
22:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after NY selloff · RSI 48 · price 1.3237
Cable held the Asian and London ranges until NY, then dropped from 1.3274 to 1.3221 as Fed hawks (Hammack) lifted USD. Late NY has carved a tentative double btm at 1.3221/1.3222 with rising lows. Price sits just above a flat ema20 and below the ema50 near the 1.3244 neckline, while ATR has compressed from 9.6 to 5.2 pips into the rollover.
Support: 1.32363, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32389, 1.3244, 1.32512
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3244 neckline and ema50 confirms the double btm and opens the london low at 1.3251
Failure at the 1.3239 late high and a break of the rising lows reopens 1.3221
Loss of the 1.3221 double btm resumes the downtrend toward 1.3200 psych
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~90 min) could break the low-ATR consolidation
Post-NY selloff, tight range 1.3225–1.3239 under lower highs.
Cable broke the Asian range low during NY hours on a firm USD and hawkish Fedspeak, setting a session low at 1.3221 that held on a late-NY retest. Price now sits in a tight range between the 1.3225 range floor and the 1.3239 late high, just under ema20 and below ema50. ATR has compressed to 5.5 pips, and a lower-highs line from the 1.3244 bounce high (about 43% of the NY drop fib) caps price.
Support: 1.3225, 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32389, 1.3244, 1.32449
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3244 bounce high and ema50 at 1.3245 breaks the lower-highs line
Loss of the 1.3221 session low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
A close above the 1.3239 late high is the first sign the range is resolving upward
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, early Asia session, could break the ATR compression
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight late-session range · RSI 47 · price 1.32356
NY sell-off to 1.3221, then lower highs above a 1.3221–1.3225 floor; ATR compressing.
The NY session broke the 1.3250 Asian floor from the 1.3274 NY high to a 1.3221 day low, a USD-driven drop as Hammack's hawkish remarks outweighed softer claims. Since then cable has held a higher low at 1.3225 while the late high at 1.3239 caps it. Price sits just under a flat EMA20 and below the EMA50 at 1.3245, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the NY leg, and ATR has compressed from 10 to 5.7 pips.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3245, 1.3274
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3245 (ema50 / 38.2% fib) breaks the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 1.3225 higher low and the 1.3221 day low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.3200 psych level
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the compressed late-NY range
Reclaim of the 1.3274 NY high would undo the session sell-off
21:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY selloff · RSI 47 · price 1.32359
Lower highs from London high; double bottom at session low, compressing.
NY hours undid the post-GDP London rally. Cable slid from the 1.3279 London high through the 1.3250 Asian low to a 1.3221 session low as USD firmed on Fed hawkishness. A double bottom at 1.3221/1.3222 has since built a quiet base on rising lows, with price pinned at the ema20 (1.3236), below the ema50 (1.3246), RSI recovered to 46.8 and ATR compressed to 6 pips.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3244, 1.3250
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3244 bounce high confirms the double bottom and opens the 1.3250 Asian low, the 50% retracement of the London high–NY low leg
Break of the rising lows line and the 1.3221 session low resumes the downtrend toward 1.3200 psych
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the current ATR compression
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the main risk for this read
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after NY sell-off · RSI 49 · price 1.32379
Post-NY base above 1.3221 session low, capped below 1.3244.
NY hours broke below the Asian low at 1.3250 as Fed-hike repricing lifted USD, printing a session low at 1.3221 that held on a 17:15 UTC retest. After the NY close price has edged back above the ema20 at 1.3236, with RSI(14) back to 49 and ATR(14) compressed to 6.3 pips, but it remains under the 1.3244 bounce high and the ema50 at 1.3246.
Support: 1.32362, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3244, 1.3246, 1.3250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3244 bounce high and ema50 at 1.3246 shifts the read to a deeper retracement toward the 1.3250 asian low
Loss of the ema20 at 1.3236 then a break of the 1.3221 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.3200 psych level
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read in thin late-session liquidity
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 47 · price 1.3236
Lower high at 1.3274, NY low at 1.3221 retested, tight base below ema50.
A firm, hawkish-Fed USD broke cable below the Asian range low near 1.3250 during NY hours. Price slid to the 1.3221 NY low, and the 18:15 UTC retest at 1.3222 held. After London close price has compressed to the ema20 at 1.3236, below the ema50 at 1.3246. ATR(14) has shrunk from 10 to 6.5 pips, and the 1.3238 late high and 1.3244 bounce high are capping.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3244, 1.3279
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3244 bounce high and ema50 at 1.3246 would turn the 1.3222 retest into a double-low base, with the NY selloff fib 50% at 1.3248 next
Failure at the 1.3222 NY low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.3200 psych level
A reclaim of 1.3250 puts the 1.3279 London high back in view
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 47 · price 1.32358
NY lower low at 1.3221 below Asian range; tight base with rising lows.
NY session broke the Asian low at 1.3250 as Fed hawks and a firm USD outweighed the UK GDP beats, extending to a 1.3221 NY low. Since then price has held a 1.3222–1.3238 band on rising lows, sitting just under the EMA20 and below the EMA50 at 1.3247. RSI(14) has recovered from 26 to 46.7 and ATR(14) has compressed to 6.9 pips.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3244, 1.3250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3222 NY low resumes the lower-low sequence toward 1.3200 psych
Close above the 1.3238 late-NY high and the 1.3244 bounce high (NY selloff fib 38.2% zone) puts the 1.3250 Asian low and EMA50 in play
A break of the rising lows trendline returns focus to the NY low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US PPI Friday is the larger risk
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY low · RSI 46 · price 1.32349
Lower highs from 1.3279; rising lows off the 1.3221 NY low.
Cable broke below the Asian range low near 1.3250 during NY hours on hawkish Fedspeak, bottoming at the 1.3221 NY low and holding it twice. Since London close it has built rising lows but is stalling at the flat ema20 at 1.3236, with the 1.3244 bounce high near the 38.2% retrace of the NY selloff. RSI(14) has recovered to 45.6 from 26 and ATR(14) has compressed to 7.1 pips.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32361, 1.3244, 1.32472
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3244 bounce high opens the ema50 at 1.3247, near the 50% retrace of the NY selloff
Loss of the rising lows at 1.3225 and a break of the 1.3221 NY low resumes the downtrend toward 1.3200 psych
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US PPI follows Friday
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY sell-off · RSI 47 · price 1.32359
Firm USD and hawkish Fedspeak drove the NY sell-off from 1.3274 to a 1.3221 NY low. Price has since held a double bottom near 1.3222 and prints rising lows into a 1.3225 higher low, sitting just under the ema20 at 1.3236 late in the session. RSI(14) has recovered from 26 to 46.6, ATR(14) has compressed to 7.3 pips, and the 1.3244 bounce high and the ema50 at 1.3248 cap the consolidation.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32362, 1.3244, 1.32477
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3244 bounce high and the ema50 at 1.3248 breaks the post-sell-off consolidation
Loss of the 1.3225 higher low and the 1.3221 NY low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.3200 psych level
A break of the rising lows trendline negates the double bottom
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (in about 3.5h) could reprice USD and shift this read
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 41 · price 1.32307
Post-breakdown consolidation 1.3221–1.3244 below the Asian range low.
Cable broke the Asian low at 1.3250 in the NY session as hawkish Fedspeak lifted USD, and the sell-off bottomed at a 1.3221 session low that held on a retest. Late NY has compressed under ema20 at 1.3236 with a run of lower highs. RSI(14) is at 40.5 off a sub-30 low, and ATR is easing to 7.5 pips.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32362, 1.3244, 1.32498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3244 swing high, near the fib midpoint of the NY sell-off, breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3221 session low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
A recovery back inside the Asian range above the 1.3250 asian low negates the breakdown
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~3.7h) could materially shift this read
Late-NY consolidation 1.3221–1.3244 below both EMAs.
Cable broke the Asian range low near 1.3250 in early NY on firm USD and hawkish Fedspeak, setting an ny low at 1.3221 before the bounce stalled at 1.3244, about 43% of the ny sell-off fib. The 1.3222 retest after London close held with RSI(14) at 33.7 against 26 at the first low, and price now sits under the ema20 at 1.3237 with ATR(14) contracting to 7.8 pips.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32368, 1.3244, 1.32489
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3244 bounce high breaks the consolidation and exposes the ema50 at 1.3249
Failure to hold the 1.3221 ny low confirms a lower low with the 1.3200 psych level next
Fed's Williams speaks at 23:30 UTC, about 4h out, and could shift this read ahead of Friday's US PPI
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY selloff · RSI 40 · price 1.32311
Lower highs above a 1.3221 session low, tight late-NY range.
Cable broke the 1.3251 London low during NY hours as hawkish Fedspeak lifted the dollar. It slid to a 1.3221 session low with RSI(14) bottoming at 26, and a second test of that low held. Price is now basing below a falling ema20 and the ema50, with lower highs capping bounces; the 1.3244 bounce high sits near the 38.2% of the selloff, and ATR has compressed to 7.9 pips.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32373, 1.3244, 1.32496
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3244 bounce high and the ema50 near 1.3250 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3221 session low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US PPI follows Friday
Lower highs after NY sell-off, coiling above 1.3221 swing low.
Cable broke below the Asian range low near 1.3250 during NY hours as hawkish Fedspeak lifted the USD. It bottomed at the 1.3221 swing low, and the bounce stalled at the 1.3244 bounce high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the NY drop. Late-NY trade is coiling between that low and the 1.3235 lower high, under the ema20 at 1.3238, with RSI(14) at 39 and ATR easing to 8.2 pips.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3235, 1.3238, 1.3244
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3244 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3221 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.3200 psych level
Fed's Williams speaks in ~4.5h; any 50bp December hike endorsement could materially shift this read
US PPI on Friday is the next major volatility risk for the USD leg
Lower highs from 1.3274; base forming at 1.3221–1.3222.
Cable dropped through the 1.3250 Asian low in the NY selloff after 14:30 UTC on the hawkish-Fed USD bid. It set a NY low at 1.3221, and the late-NY retest held 1.3222 with RSI(14) at 37.9 against 26 at the first low. Price is below both EMAs, ATR(14) has eased to 8.5 pips, and the pair is ranging between the NY low and the 1.3244 bounce high, capped by a line of lower highs.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32389, 1.3244, 1.32498
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3221 NY low resumes the downtrend toward 1.3200 psych
Close above the 1.3244 bounce high breaks the lower highs and puts the 1.3250 Asian low in play
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 1.3239 keeps the downtrend intact
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift this read; US PPI Friday is the bigger risk
Lower highs from 1.3274; base forming at 1.3221 below ema20.
Cable broke the Asian low near 1.3250 during NY hours as the dollar extended on Fed-hike repricing. Price printed a session low at 1.3221, and the 17:15 UTC retest held at that level. Price is capped under the ema20 at 1.3240 and the lower highs line, with RSI(14) at 39.9 after a 26 trough and ATR(14) at 8.7 pips, down from 10.2.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32399, 1.3244, 1.3250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3244 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the asian low / ema50 zone at 1.3250 in play, about the 38.2% of the sell-off fib
Failure to hold the 1.3221 session low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
Fed's Schmid (speaking now), the Budget Statement in 29 min and Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs below 1.3244 after NY selloff, holding 1.3221.
Cable broke below the Asian low near 1.3250 during NY hours as Fed hawks lifted the dollar, and bottomed at the 1.3221 session low. The bounce stalled at 1.3244, just above the 38.2% of the NY selloff, and late-NY trade is now holding just above the session low with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) at 36, up from 26.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32407, 1.3244, 1.3250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3221 session low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
Close above the ema20 at 1.3241 and the 1.3244 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence; asian low at 1.3250 is next overhead
Fed's Schmid in ~14 min and Williams later tonight could shift this read; US PPI Friday is the main risk
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, retesting NY low · RSI 34 · price 1.32241
Lower highs from 1.3274; double-test of 1.3221 session low.
Cable broke the 1.3250 broken floor that held through Asia and London. It slid 53 pips from the 1.3274 NY high to a 1.3221 session low as Fed hawks (Hammack) outweighed softer claims. The bounce stalled at 1.3244 just above ema20, a lower high, and price is back retesting the session low late in NY with RSI(14) at 33.7, holding above its 26 trough.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3242, 1.3251, 1.3274
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.3221 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.3200 psych level
Recovery above the ema20 and the 1.3244 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; 1.3251 broken floor and 1.3254 ema50 sit just above
Fed's Daly in 9m and Schmid in 29m could shift the read; ATR at 9.1 pips is easing from 10.2
A move back toward the 1.3274 ny high would invalidate the NY downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY breakdown below 1.3250.
NY session broke the 1.3250 prior floor that held through Asia and the post-GDP London trade, running to a 1.3221 session low as USD strength dominated. The bounce stalled at 1.3244, right at ema20, and price is back on the low late in NY. ATR(14) has expanded to 9.4 pips from about 6, and RSI(14) at 32.8 sits just above oversold.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32438, 1.3250, 1.32551
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3221 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3200 round number
A new low with RSI(14) holding above its earlier 26 trough would set up bullish divergence
Recovery through ema20 and the lower highs line, then back above the 1.3250 prior floor and ema50 at 1.3255, negates the breakdown read
Fed's Daly in 24m and Schmid in 44m could shift the USD-driven tone
NY break below Asian range, lower highs, tight base above 1.3221.
Firm USD demand broke the Asian low near 1.3250 from 14:30 UTC after the UK GDP beats gave no lift. Price tagged a 1.3221 session low with RSI(14) at 26, then put in a higher low at 1.3231. The bounce has stalled at the 1.3244 bounce high after London close, below the falling ema20 (1.3248) and ema50 (1.3258), with ATR(14) expanded to ~10 pips.
Support: 1.3231, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3244, 1.3250, 1.3258
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3250 asian low and ema20 would mark the range break as failing
Failure to hold the 1.3231 higher low, then the 1.3221 session low, extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 round number
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) are due within ~90 min; any 50bp December hike endorsement could materially shift this read
Rejection at the 1.3244 bounce high, near the 38.2% retracement of the NY drop, keeps the lower-high structure intact
Asian range low broken in NY, lower highs, bounce capped below ema20.
NY session broke the Asian range low near 1.3250 and printed a ny low at 1.3221 as USD strength from Fed-hike repricing outweighed the UK GDP beats. The bounce has stalled at the 1.3244 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib and below ema20 at 1.3249 and ema50 at 1.3259. The 1.3231 minor low is holding, with RSI(14) recovered to 39.8 from 26 and ATR(14) expanded to 10.2 pips.
Support: 1.3231, 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3244, 1.32493, 1.3259
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema20 at 1.3249 and the old Asian low reclaims the range and challenges the downtrend read; ema50 at 1.3259 is next
Failure to hold the 1.3231 minor low exposes the ny low at 1.3221, with the 1.3200 round number below
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could revive 50bp December talk and move USD within the next 2h
Asian range low broken in NY; lower high at 1.3242 after 1.3221 session low.
The NY session broke the 1.3250 Asian low as the USD extended its post-CPI bid. The sell-off ran to a 1.3221 session low, and ATR(14) expanded from 6 to 10 pips. The bounce into London close stalled at the 1.3242 bounce high, the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off. Price is below both EMAs, and RSI(14) has recovered to 37 from 26.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3242, 1.3250
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3250 Asian low, where ema20 sits, would mark a false break and negate the range break
Failure to hold the 1.3221 session low extends lower lows toward the 1.3200 round number
Fed's Goolsbee is speaking now, with Daly at 18:10 UTC and Schmid at 18:30 UTC; any 50bp December endorsement could extend the USD leg
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, early NY-session bounce · RSI 41 · price 1.32388
Lower highs and lows after a NY break below the Asian range; bounce stalling at 38.2% fib.
The London-open lift on the UK GDP/IP beats faded. The NY session then broke the Asian low at 1.3250 as USD strength extended, printing a NY low at 1.3221. The rebound is capped near the 38.2% fib at 1.3242, with price below EMA20 (1.3252) and EMA50 (1.3261). RSI(14) has recovered to 40.5 from 26, and ATR has expanded to 10 pips from 6.
Support: 1.32209
Resistance: 1.32421, 1.32498, 1.32521
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3250 Asian low and EMA20 at 1.3252 would mark the range break as a false break
Rejection at the 38.2% fib followed by a loss of the 1.3221 NY low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Goolsbee in ~14 min, with Daly and Schmid later in NY hours, could materially shift this read via USD hike pricing
Lower highs at 1.3279 and 1.3274; NY broke Asian range low.
NY session broke the Asian low near 1.3250 and extended to a fresh session low at 1.3221 as broad USD strength resumed. A 16-pip bounce into 1.3237 has lifted RSI(14) to 37.5 from 26. Price is still below the EMA20 (1.3253) and EMA50 (1.3262), with ATR expanded to 10 pips from 6.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3240, 1.3250
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.3250 (asian low, near the 61.8% fib and ema20) negates the range break
Failure at the 1.3240 breakdown level keeps the lower highs sequence intact
Break below the 1.3221 session low exposes the 1.3200 round number
Fed's Goolsbee in ~30 min, then Daly and Schmid, could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NY range break · RSI 26 · price 1.32273
Lower highs; Asian range low broken, fresh session low.
The NY drop from the 1.3274 NY high broke the Asian low at 1.3250 and printed a fresh session low at 1.3221, extending the lower highs from London as the USD stays bid on Fed hike repricing. RSI(14) at 26 is oversold, ATR has expanded to 9.7 pips, and price sits below the ema20 at 1.3255 and the ema50 at 1.3263.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3255, 1.3274
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3250 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3221 session low exposes the 1.3200 round number
A reclaim of the 1.3274 ny high breaks the lower highs sequence
Bounces into the NY drop fib 38.2–50% (1.3241–1.3248) sit just under the asian low and ema20
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC, then Daly and Schmid, could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NY flush · RSI 29 · price 1.32333
Asian range broken lower; lower highs into fresh session low.
NY session broke the Asian low at 1.32498 and flushed to a session low at 1.32227. Dollar demand on Fed hike pricing overrode this morning's UK GDP/IP beats, and the London lower high at 1.32741 capped the move. RSI(14) is oversold at 28.5 and ATR has expanded to 9.5 pips, with price below both ema20 (1.32582) and ema50.
Support: 1.32227, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32498, 1.32582, 1.32741
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.32498 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.32227 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3200 round number
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.32582 would neutralise the NY sell-off fib structure
Fed's Goolsbee in ~1h, then Daly and Schmid, could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum building · RSI 33 · price 1.32371
Lower highs, Asian range broken lower in NY.
The NY session broke below the 1.3250 Asian low and the 13:00 UTC low, printing a session low at 1.3235. USD strength swamped this morning's UK GDP beats, and lower highs at 1.3279 and 1.3274 cap the NY sell-off. Price sits below a falling ema20 at 1.3261, RSI(14) is 32.5 and not yet oversold, and ATR has expanded from 6 to 8.9 pips.
Support: 1.3235, 1.3230
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3261, 1.32741
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.3250 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
M15 close below the 1.3230 round number extends the NY sell-off to fresh window lows
M15 close above the 1.3274 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC and Daly at 18:10 UTC could shift USD tone
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 36 · price 1.32458
Lower-high chain from London high; Asian range low broken.
Firm USD swamped the UK GDP beats. The London high at 1.3279 capped the pair, and successive NY lower highs at 1.3273 and 1.3274 fed a break through the 1.3250 Asian low to a 1.3245 session low. Price sits below a declining ema20 (1.3263) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 36.2 and ATR(14) expanding to 8.9 pips from 6.0.
Support: 1.32451, 1.3240
Resistance: 1.32498, 1.32632, 1.32741
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3250 asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3245 session low exposes the 1.3240 round number
Close above the 1.3274 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and the downtrend read
Fed's Barr now and Goolsbee in ~90 min could extend or reverse the USD-driven leg
14:46 UTC
Range near day lows, lower highs forming · RSI 43 · price 1.32584
Lower high at 1.3274 under the 1.3279 London high; 1.3250 floor intact.
Early NY probed 1.3251, just above the 1.3250 Asian day low. The NY bounce after jobless claims stalled at the 1.3274 NY high, a lower high under London's 1.3279, and the 14:30 UTC bar rejected back below ema20 and ema50. ATR has expanded to 8.5 pips and RSI sits at 43, with the USD bid after hot CPI keeping the pair pinned near four-week lows.
Support: 1.32546, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32649, 1.32674, 1.32741
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3250 day low breaks the Asian floor and four-week low
Failure to hold the 1.3255 bounce low exposes 1.3250 again
Recovery above ema50 at 1.3267 and the 1.3274 NY high negates the lower-highs read
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in ~15 min, then Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC, could jolt the session range
Fib of the NY bounce: price already through the 61.8% retrace
14:31 UTC
Sideways, range-bound below London high · RSI 52 · price 1.32661
1.3251–1.3279 range since GDP, lower highs off London peak.
The London high at 1.3279, set after the UK monthly data beats, faded into midday. The NY session then held the 1.3251 session low for a third time, with a rejection that lifted price to a 1.3274 NY high after mixed US claims. Price sits just above both flat EMAs (1.3266/1.3268), with RSI at 52 and ATR expanding to 8.2 pips, leaving a lower-highs range with no break in play.
Support: 1.32588, 1.32512
Resistance: 1.32741, 1.32791, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3279 london high breaks the lower highs line and range top, exposing the 1.3286 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3251 session low after three tests opens fresh four-week lows
Loss of the 1.3259 midday low would put the session low back in focus
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in ~30 min, then Goolsbee in ~2h, could materially shift this read
Rejection again at the 1.3274 ny high keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
14:16 UTC
Sideways, below flat EMAs · RSI 49 · price 1.32681
24h range 1.3250–1.3280, lows defended three times.
UK GDP beats lifted cable off the 1.3250 day low to a 1.3279 London high. Early NY gave all of it back to 1.3251 before the claims miss drew a rejection there, and price has retraced to the 61.8% fib of that drop. The 14:00 close sat just under ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) is neutral at 49 and ATR(14) has widened to 8.1 pips from about 6.
Support: 1.3261, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3273, 1.3279, 1.3286
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3273 ny high and then the 1.3279 london high breaks the range top; the 1.3286 prior high sits next
Failure to hold the 1.3261 swing low puts the 1.3250 day low back in play; a break there extends below the four-week low
Fed's Barr and US Existing Home Sales in ~44 min, then Goolsbee and Daly later in NY hours, could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off the floor · RSI 52 · price 1.32701
1.3250–1.3279 range since the Asia drop; third floor test held.
GBPUSD has held a 1.3250–1.3279 range since the Asia-session drop, which came as DXY hit a 19-month high. Beats in the UK monthly GDP data lifted price from the range floor at the London open. A third test of that floor in the first hour of NY was rejected, and after US claims came in at 200K the bounce reclaimed ema20 and ema50, retracing about two-thirds of the pullback from the London high. RSI(14) is neutral at 52, and ATR has expanded to 7.9 pips from 5.9.
Support: 1.32679, 1.32608, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32791, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3279 london high breaks the range top and opens the prior high at 1.3286
Loss of ema50 at 1.3268 and the 1.3261 swing low puts the 1.3250 range floor back in play
Hammack speaking now, with Barr and US Existing Home Sales in ~1h; hawkish Fedspeak could reassert USD pressure on the range
GBP/USD has printed lower highs since the 1.3279 london high and dropped to a 1.3251 ny low before US claims, just above the 1.3250 asian low and near four-week lows as the USD stays bid. The in-line 200K claims print sparked a bounce that stalled at the 1.3265 ema20 and the 50% fib of the London-NY drop. Price sits below both EMAs, RSI(14) is 45.8 and ATR(14) has risen to 7.4 pips.
Support: 1.32512, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32651, 1.32679, 1.32791
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack in ~15 min, then Barr and Goolsbee during NY hours, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3250 asian low breaks the floor tested three times today
M15 close above the 1.3268 ema50 and the falling lower-high trendline negates the lower-high read
A rejection at the ema20 and 50% fib keeps the bounce corrective, with the 1.3279 london high capping the range
13:31 UTC
Intraday lower highs inside a 1.3250–1.3280 range · RSI 41 · price 1.32577
London high capped, third test of the Asian low holding.
The UK GDP beats lifted the pair off the Asian low at 1.3250 to a London high of 1.3279. It then faded on lower highs as broad USD strength reasserted, and the 13:00 drop to 1.3251 was rejected near the Asian low. Price sits below the ema20 (1.3266) and ema50 (1.3268), with RSI at 41 and ATR expanding to 7.3 pips into US jobless claims.
Support: 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32655, 1.32681, 1.32791
What it said to watch
Claims (13:30 UTC bar forming) and Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.3250 Asian low breaks the range floor
A reclaim of the ema50 at 1.3268 and the lower-highs line opens the path back to the 1.3279 London high
The post-GDP bounce stalled at the 1.3279 London high and has since unwound through a chain of lower highs, as USD strength swamps the UK data beat. The 13:00 UTC bar dropped 15 pips back onto the Asian low near 1.3250, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) at 34, not yet oversold.
Support: 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32663, 1.32791
What it said to watch
US jobless claims in 14 min, then Hammack at 14:00 UTC; ATR 6.9 pips likely understates the next move
M15 close below the 1.3250 asian low sets a fresh day low and extends the lower-low chain
Recovery back above the ema20 at 1.3266 and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the intraday downtrend read
London high at 1.3279 caps the session; a reclaim reopens the prior range
London leg 1.3252→1.3279 capped by lower highs, pulled back into lower half.
UK GDP beats lifted GBPUSD from the 1.3252 london low to a 1.3279 london high, but repeated rejection there gave way to a pullback to 1.3259, about a 75% retracement of the London leg. Price now sits just under the ema20 (1.3268) and ema50 (1.3269), with RSI 47.3 and ATR 6.1 pips. The pair is still inside the Asian range, between the 1.3250 session low and the 1.3282 asian high.
Support: 1.32588, 1.32519, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32678, 1.32791, 1.32824
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT, then Fedspeak from 14:00 GMT, could break the NY session range either way
An M15 close below the 1.3259 pullback low exposes the 1.3252 london low and the 1.3250 session low
Reclaiming the ema20 and holding above it reopens the 1.3279 london high; a break there tests the 1.3282 asian high
12:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London peak · RSI 44 · price 1.32659
London rally from Asian low capped below Asia high, now retracing below both EMAs.
London lifted cable from the 1.3250 Asian low on the UK GDP and output beats, but the move stalled at the 1.3279 London high, short of the 1.3282 Asia high, and has since printed lower highs back below the ema20 (1.3268) and ema50 (1.3269). The dip found demand at the 1.3259 London low, just through the 61.8% retracement of the London leg. RSI(14) sits at 43.5 and ATR(14) at 6.2 pips heading into the NY open.
Support: 1.32588, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.3268, 1.32791, 1.32824
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC, then Hammack and Barr, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3259 London low exposes the 1.3250 Asian low
Reclaiming the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline near 1.3273 neutralises the pullback read
A break of the 1.3279 London high and 1.3282 Asia high would end the rejection read
12:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London peak · RSI 40 · price 1.32601
Inside Asian range; London bounce fading toward range base.
The bounce off the 1.3250 asian low on the UK GDP beat was rejected at the 1.3279 london high, short of the 1.3282 asian high, as broad USD strength capped it. London has since printed lower highs back to the 61.8% fib at 1.3261. Price is below the ema20 (1.3269) and ema50, RSI(14) is 40.4 and ATR(14) is 6.3 pips heading into the NY open.
Support: 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32685, 1.32791, 1.32824
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.3250 asian low (double base with 1.3252 pre-GDP) breaks the Asian range lower
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.3269 and the London lower highs trendline would neutralise the pullback
Close above the 1.3279 london high puts the 1.3282 asian high back in play
12:16 UTC
Intraday rebound stalling, flat around EMAs · RSI 50 · price 1.3269
London higher lows off the 1.3250 Asian low, 50% pullback holding.
Cable rallied from the 1.3250 Asian low after the UK GDP and output beats, topping at the 1.3279 London high, then pulled back to the 50% fib of that rally at the 1.3265 swing low. Price is now pinned just below a flattening ema20 and the ema50 at 1.3270, with the rising lows line from the pre-GDP low still intact. RSI at 50 and a 6-pip ATR point to a compressed late-London range ahead of the NY open.
Support: 1.32647, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.3270, 1.32791, 1.32824
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3265 swing low breaks the rising lows line and puts the 1.3250 asian low back in play
Close above the 1.3279 london high, then the 1.3282 asia high, extends the London recovery
Repeated closes under the ema50 at 1.3270 keep the pullback read intact
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could break the range via the USD
12:01 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling inside London range · RSI 53 · price 1.32708
London range 1.3252–1.3279 above the Asian low, price mid-range.
The Asia-session dollar push swept cable to the 1.3250 Asian low. London rebounded off 1.3252 after the in-line UK GDP print with monthly beats, but supply capped the session at the 1.3279 London high. The 11:45 UTC dip held the 1.3265 swing low at the 50% fib of that recovery, and price is back just above the flat ema20/ema50 near 1.3270 ahead of the NY open, with ATR(14) at a compressed 6 pips.
Support: 1.3270, 1.32647, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32791, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3265 swing low breaks London rising support and exposes the 1.3250 Asian low
Clearance of the 1.3279 London high opens the 1.3286 prior high from yesterday's NY range
Loss of the ema50 at 1.3270 returns price to the lower half of the London range
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could reset the session range during NY hours
London higher-low chain broken; price still inside the Asian range.
London lifted cable 27 pips off the asian low after the UK GDP and IP beats, but stalled with a rejection at the london high of 1.3279, still under the asian high of 1.3282 as the post-CPI USD bid persists. The late-London pullback broke the higher-low chain and is sitting on the 50% fib near 1.3265. Price is below the ema20 at 1.32692 and the ema50 at 1.3270, with RSI(14) neutral at 48.6 and ATR(14) at 6 pips.
Support: 1.32655, 1.32623, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32692, 1.32791, 1.32824
What it said to watch
A close below the 50% fib at 1.3265 exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3262, then the asian low at 1.3250.
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.32692 and the ema50 at 1.3270 would rebuild the London sequence. The london high at 1.3279 and the asian high at 1.3282 cap above.
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could reshape the NY session range.
London higher-low chain broken; price inside Asian range.
The London rally that followed the UK GDP beats stalled at the 1.32791 London high, just under the 1.32809 Asian high. Late London has since broken the higher-low chain, with price now below the ema20 (1.32693) and EMA50 (1.32701) and RSI(14) down to 46.4 from about 60, as the post-CPI USD bid keeps a lid on cable. Price is testing the 1.32652 swing low at the 50% of the London leg fib, and ATR(14) is 6 pips.
Support: 1.32652, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32693, 1.32791, 1.32809
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.32652 swing low (50% fib) exposes the 61.8% near 1.3262, then the 1.32498 Asian low
Reclaim of the ema20/EMA50 cluster at 1.32693–1.32701 restores the London higher-low read
Rejection at the 1.32791 London high and 1.32809 Asian high keeps the Asian range intact
US Initial Jobless Claims in ~2h and Fed's Hammack shortly after could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 1.3250 Asian low, highs capped at 1.3279.
The London rally lifted cable off the 1.3250 asian low after in-line UK GDP with monthly beats, though GBP stays heavy against the post-CPI USD bid. Late in the London session, price is coiling just above the ema50 at 1.3270. The london high at 1.3279 has rejected twice, with RSI(14) at 57 and ATR at 5.9 pips easing.
Support: 1.32702, 1.32652, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32791, 1.32824
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3282 asian high breaks the London range top and clears the Asia session high
Loss of the ema50 at 1.3270, then the 1.3265 swing low, breaks the London higher-low chain and puts the fib 50% of the London rally in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read around the NY open
11:01 UTC
Intraday recovery from Asian low, stalling below session high · RSI 59 · price 1.32738
Higher lows through London (1.3252, 1.3265, 1.3269), flat highs near 1.3279.
London extended a recovery from the 1.3250 Asian low after in-line UK GDP with monthly beats. It carved higher lows at 1.3265 and the 1.3269 swing low, and price now compresses under the 1.3279 session high, holding just above the flat ema50 at 1.3270 with RSI 59 and ATR 6 pips. The broader post-CPI dollar bid has kept the move shallow, still below yesterday's 1.3286 prior high.
Support: 1.32701, 1.32685, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32791, 1.32864, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3269 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3250 Asian low
Close above the 1.3279 session high opens 1.3286 prior high, then the 1.3300 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h) and Fed's Hammack/Barr could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, momentum moderate · RSI 59 · price 1.32751
Higher highs and higher lows through London, below overnight high.
London has climbed from the 1.3250 Asian low on the UK GDP and production beats, building a higher-high/higher-low chain to a session high at 1.3279. Price holds above the ema20 and the flattening ema50 near 1.3270, with RSI(14) at 59.3 and ATR easing to 6.1 pips. The overnight high at 1.3282 caps the move against a broadly firm USD.
Support: 1.3270, 1.32685, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32791, 1.32824, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3282 overnight high opens the 1.3286 ny high from yesterday's NY range
Close below the 1.3270 ema50 and the 1.32685 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain and exposes the Asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (~2.7h) and the Fedspeak slate after it could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, steady momentum · RSI 61 · price 1.3274
London higher-high/higher-low chain capped just under the Asian high.
UK GDP and IP beats at the London open lifted cable off the 1.3250 Asian low into a higher-high/higher-low sequence, with the session high at 1.3279 just shy of the 1.3281 Asian high. Price holds above a rising EMA20 (1.3268) and a flat EMA50 (1.3270) with RSI(14) at 60.7. The London higher low at 1.3269 sits near the 38.2% fib of the Asian low-session high move.
Support: 1.32685, 1.32652, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32809, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3269 London higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.3265 post-GDP low
Acceptance above the 1.3281 Asian high opens the 1.3286 NY range top from yesterday
Loss of the 1.3250 Asian low would put price back under the overnight range
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could reassert the USD bid during NY hours
London higher-low chain capped beneath the 1.3277 London high.
Cable climbed out of the 1.3250–1.3264 Asian range after the UK GDP and production beats at 07:00 UTC. The London leg has stalled under the 1.3277 London high. Price sits just above the ema50 at 1.3270, with a rising trendline of higher lows (latest 1.3265) still intact, RSI(14) at 58.5 and ATR easing to 6.1 pips.
Support: 1.32696, 1.32652, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32767, 1.32809, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3277 london high opens the 1.3281 asia high and 1.3286 ny high from yesterday afternoon
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.3265 higher low puts the 50–61.8% fib of the London leg (1.3263–1.3260) in play
Loss of the 1.3250 asian low would reassert the USD-led slide
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
10:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 57 · price 1.32724
Double bottom at 1.3250 resolved higher; London highs capping 1.3277.
After the Asia drop to a 1.3250 session low, the 07:00 UTC GDP beats sparked a London lift out of the double bottom. The pair is now pressing just below the 1.3277 London high with higher lows at 1.3265 and 1.3269, above both EMAs and with RSI(14) at 57.4. The broader backdrop is still USD-led, so the recovery is modest against the dollar bid.
Support: 1.32694, 1.3265, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32767, 1.32864, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3277 London high opens yesterday's 1.3286 NY high, then the 1.3300 psych figure
M15 close below the 1.3269 ema50 and the 1.3265 higher low breaks the London higher-low sequence
Loss of the 1.3250 session low would undo the double bottom
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could reprice the dollar into the NY open
09:46 UTC
Intraday recovery off the lows, momentum easing · RSI 57 · price 1.32718
Double bottom at 1.3250 in Asia, London higher lows stalling under the Asian high.
Cable based in a double bottom near 1.3250 during Asia, and London lifted it after the UK GDP and output beats. The move has stalled at the 1.3277 session high, still inside the Asian range under the 1.3282 Asian high. Price holds above both EMAs with the ema50 at 1.3269 close by, RSI(14) at 56.8 is easing from 63, and ATR(14) has expanded to 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.32693, 1.32652, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32767, 1.32824
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3282 Asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the ema50 and the 1.3265 london low puts the 1.3250 double btm back in focus
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read in NY hours
09:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the GDP low · RSI 63 · price 1.32751
London HH/HL chain, testing Asian range top.
Cable bounced from the 1.3252 gdp low at the 07:00 UTC UK data beats and has printed a clean higher-low chain through London, back above the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 63 and ATR expanding to 6.5 pips. Price is pressing the 1.3277 session high just under the 1.3281 asian high. Per the digest the broader move remains USD-led after the CPI beat.
Support: 1.32693, 1.3266, 1.32519
Resistance: 1.32767, 1.32809, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3281 asian high opens the 1.3286 ny high from yesterday's range
Break below the London trendline and the ema50 at 1.3269 ends the higher-low chain, exposing the ema20 at 1.3266 (near the 38.2% fib)
Failure to clear the 1.3277 session high leaves the Asian range top as the cap
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 06:45 UTC low, capped below 1.3277 London high.
The UK GDP and production beats at 07:00 GMT lifted cable off the 1.3250 asian low, and London has since retraced most of the Asian slide. Supply has rejected the 1.3277 london high three times since 07:45 UTC. Price holds above a flat ema20/ema50 pair on higher lows, RSI(14) at 60.9 is up from the high-30s and ATR(14) has expanded to 6.6 pips.
Support: 1.3269, 1.3265, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3277, 1.3281, 1.3286
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3281 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.3286 ny range top from yesterday's NY session
A break below the ema20 at 1.3265 and the London higher-low trendline undoes the rebound structure
Repeated rejection at the 1.3277 london high keeps price inside the Asian range
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC (~4h) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below London high · RSI 58 · price 1.32722
Higher lows off 1.3250, flat cap at 1.3275.
London open rebounded from a double bottom at the 1.3250 asian low after the UK GDP and output beats, putting cable back above the ema20 and ema50. The 1.3275 london high has drawn rejection three times since 07:45 UTC, while higher lows near 1.3266 hold the rising trendline. RSI(14) is 57.8 and ATR(14) is 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.32688, 1.3266, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32747, 1.32809, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3275 london high opens the 1.3281 asian high, then the 1.3286 ny high from yesterday
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.3266 higher lows, then a close back below the ema50 at 1.32688, would put the 1.3250 asian low back in play
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee) from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
08:46 UTC
Intraday recovery off lows, stalling under London high · RSI 57 · price 1.3268
Higher lows from the 1.3250 Asian low, capped at 1.3275 London high.
The UK GDP beat at 07:00 UTC lifted cable off a double bottom at the 1.3250 Asian low, but the London high at 1.3275 has rejected three pushes and price sits on the ema50 at 1.3269, near the 61.8% fib of the overnight drop. RSI(14) recovered from 36 to 56.7 and ATR has expanded to 6.7 pips, with the broader tone still USD-led.
Support: 1.32688, 1.32635, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32747, 1.32824
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3275 london high opens the 1.3282 overnight high
Loss of the ema20 at 1.3264 and the rising trendline puts the 1.3250 asian low back in play
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.3250 Asia lows, London higher low, capped below Asia high.
The 1.3250 Asia low held twice, and the UK GDP and output beats at 07:00 UTC lifted cable to a 1.3274 London high before it slipped back under the ema50 at 1.3269. Price is pinned between the ema20 at 1.3263, near the 38–50% fib of the London rally, and the ema50. RSI has recovered to 53.5 from the 33s, and ATR has expanded to 6.6 pips.
Support: 1.32629, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32688, 1.32744, 1.32824
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3274 London high opens a test of the 1.3282 Asia high
Loss of the ema20 at 1.3263 and the London rally 50% fib puts the 1.3250 Asia low back in play
A break below the 1.3250 Asia low would negate the double bottom and mark a fresh low
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Rebound off the Asian low, capped at ema50 · RSI 55 · price 1.32691
Double bottom near 1.3250, higher low at 1.3252, London high capping at 1.3274.
Cable bounced off a 1.3250 asian low double bottom on the September GDP and production beats at 07:00 UTC. Early London twice stalled at the 1.3274 london high, and price is sitting just under the ema50 at 1.3269. RSI(14) is back to 54.6 and ATR(14) has widened to 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.32625, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32689, 1.32744, 1.32809
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3274 london high exposes the 1.3281 asian high
Loss of the ema20 at 1.3263, the 50% fib of the Asian low to London high leg, returns focus to the 1.3250 asian low
Repeated rejection under the ema50 at 1.3269 keeps the GDP bounce contained inside the Asian range
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom at the Asian low, London higher lows.
The London open lifted cable off a double bottom at the 1.3250 asian low (1.32498/1.32519) after September GDP and production beat. The bounce has reached the 61.8% of the Asia drop fib near 1.3269, with price back above the ema20 and a flat ema50. RSI(14) has recovered from 30 to 57.9 and ATR is expanding to 6.3 pips, with the london high at 1.32743 the first cap ahead of the asian high at 1.32809.
Support: 1.32689, 1.3262, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32743, 1.32809, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 1.32743 opens the asian high at 1.32809, then the ny high at 1.32864
Slip back below the ema50 at 1.32689 and the ema20 at 1.3262 returns focus to the asian low at 1.32498
A break of the asian low at 1.32498 voids the double bottom and resumes the decline
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom near 1.3250, retracing the overnight drop into ema50.
Asia extended the slide to the 1.32498 asian low. At London open, the September UK GDP and production beats lifted cable off a double bottom near 1.3250 and through 1.3264. The rebound is now pressing the ema50 at 1.32689, in line with the 61.8% fib of the 1.32824–1.32498 drop, with RSI(14) recovered from sub-30 to 56.3 and ATR expanding to 6.2 pips.
Support: 1.32612, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32689, 1.32809
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 1.32689 opens the path to the asian high at 1.32809
Rejection at ema50 and a close back below the ema20 at 1.32612 would return focus to the asian low at 1.32498
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC (Hammack, Barr) could materially shift this read
1.3250–1.3266 range after Asia broke below its range.
GBP/USD broke below the early Asian range near 1.3272 on broad USD strength. Price has since based in a 1.3250–1.3266 band, with a double bottom at the asian low of 1.3250 and the pre-GDP low of 1.3252. Stronger-than-forecast UK GDP MoM and manufacturing at the London open spiked price to the gdp high at 1.3266, near the 50% fib, where it was rejected; price now sits just above the ema20 at 1.3260 and below the ema50 at 1.3269, with RSI(14) at 48.6 after recovering from sub-30.
Support: 1.32604, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.32689, 1.32716
What it said to watch
M15 close above the gdp high at 1.3266 and the ema50 at 1.3269 opens a retest of the broken asian range floor at 1.3272
Loss of the ema20 at 1.3260 returns price to the base lows
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.3250 breaks the double bottom and extends the lower-low sequence
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.3281, 1.3250–1.3266 box after Asia drop.
UK GDP beat at 07:00 UTC (MoM and manufacturing above forecast) spiked price to 1.3266, near the 50% of the Asia drop fib, but it faded back below the ema20 at 1.3260 ahead of London open. Price holds a 1.3250–1.3266 box above the session low at 1.3250, with a higher low at 1.3252 and ATR(14) ticking up to 5.9 pips on the release.
Support: 1.3252, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32604, 1.3266, 1.32692
What it said to watch
M15 close above the gdp spike at 1.3266 and the ema50 at 1.3269 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the higher low at 1.3252 and the session low at 1.3250 extends the downtrend
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC can shift the NY session read
07:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 1.32551
Lower highs pressing on a 1.3250–1.3264 range.
Asia broke below yesterday's NY low near 1.3266 and set a fresh asian low at 1.3250, extending the USD-driven slide that followed the hot US CPI. Since then price has held a 1.3250–1.3264 range. Highs are drifting lower along a falling trendline under the ema20, the bounce stalled near the 50% fib of the asian drop, and ATR(14) has compressed to 5.3 pips as London opens into UK Q3 GDP.
Support: 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32605, 1.32639, 1.32697
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP (f/c 0.7% QoQ, 0% MoM) prints on the current London-open bar and could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the asian low at 1.3250 extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the range high at 1.3264 and the falling trendline puts the ema50 at 1.3270 and the 50% fib of the asian drop in play; reclaiming the ema50 undercuts the downtrend read
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC follow in NY hours
GBP/USD broke Tuesday's NY range in Asia, hitting a session low at 1.32498 as the post-CPI USD bid extended. The rebound stalled at a 1.32639 lower high, near the fib 38.2% of the Asian drop. Price is now back below a falling ema20 (1.32613) and ema50 (1.32703) ahead of London open, with ATR compressed to 5.4 pips.
Support: 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32613, 1.32639, 1.32703
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP in 14 minutes at 07:00 UTC is likely to expand range well beyond the 5.4-pip ATR
M15 close below the 1.3250 asian low extends the downtrend to fresh lows
Reclaim of the ema20 and the 1.32639 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the ema50 at 1.32703 is next
US claims and Fedspeak from 13:30 UTC can reassert the USD driver after the GDP reaction
Lower highs; tight 1.3254–1.3264 range after Asia breakdown.
The Asia session broke below its range and printed a session low at 1.3250. Since then price has held a tight 1.3254–1.3264 box, with higher lows forming beneath the ema20 (1.3262) and ema50 (1.3271), and it stays capped near the asia drop fib 38.2% while USD remains bid on Fed-hike pricing. RSI(14) has recovered to 45 from sub-30, and ATR(14) has compressed to 5.3 pips ahead of UK Q3 GDP.
Support: 1.32544, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32639, 1.3271, 1.32824
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (f/c 0.7% q/q, 0% m/m) is under 30 min away and could break the 5.3-pip ATR compression in either direction
An M15 close above the 1.3264 range top and ema20 clears the asia drop fib 38.2%, exposing the ema50 at 1.3271 and the 1.3282 asia high
Failure at the 1.3254 range low breaks the higher lows; a move through the 1.3250 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Asia broke the NY range lower; shallow lower-high pullback.
Asia broke the late-NY 1.3272–1.3281 range lower as USD strength extended, printing an asian low at 1.3250. The rebound stalled at the 1.3264 bounce high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib. Ahead of the London open, price sits below a falling ema20 (1.3262) and ema50 (1.3271), with RSI(14) at 39.4 after a brief sub-30 dip and ATR at 5.3 pips.
Support: 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32622, 1.32639, 1.32714
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP and September data at 07:00 UTC (44 min, f/c 0.7% q/q) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3250 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the ema20 and the 1.3264 bounce high breaks the lower-high pullback
Close back above the ema50 at 1.3271 returns price into the broken NY range
Lower highs from London; minor higher lows off the 1.3250 Asian low.
The USD-led slide extended in Asia, with a drop from the 1.3281 asian high to the 1.3250 asian low. Price has since printed higher lows but is stalling at the 38.2% fib of that drop. The 1.3264 bounce high and ema20 (1.32628) sit just overhead, and ATR is compressing to 5.2 pips into UK GDP.
Support: 1.3257, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3264, 1.3272, 1.3281
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (f/c 0.7% q/q, 0% m/m) could materially shift this read; compressed ATR leaves room for range expansion
M15 close above the 1.3264 bounce high clears the fib zone and opens ema50 at 1.3272, then the 1.3281 asian high
Break of the 1.3257 higher low and the recovery line puts the 1.3250 asian low back in play; a close below extends the lower-low sequence
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing below EMAs · RSI 43 · price 1.32607
Asia range break lower, shallow higher-low bounce.
Cable broke below yesterday's NY prior low at 1.3266 during the Asia session and printed a session low at 1.3250 as the post-CPI USD bid held. The bounce has retraced about half of the Asia drop and built a higher low at 1.3257, but it is capped at the ema20 (1.3263). RSI(14) has recovered to 43 from sub-30 and ATR(14) is compressing to 5.3 pips ahead of UK GDP.
Support: 1.3257, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3263, 1.32662, 1.32725
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (in ~74 min) could materially shift this read; ATR compression points to a range expansion on the print
M15 close back above the 1.3266 prior low and the ema50 at 1.32725 would undo the Asia breakdown
Loss of the 1.3257 higher low, then the 1.3250 session low, extends the lower-low chain
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 1.3263 keeps the bounce a pause within the downtrend
Asian range broken lower; lower highs intact, shallow higher low off the 1.3250 session low.
USD-driven selling broke the 1.3272–1.3282 Asian range lower and printed a session low at 1.3250. The bounce stalled at 1.3264, near the ema20 and the 38.2–50% fib of the drop. RSI(14) has recovered from below 30 to 39, and ATR has compressed to 5.4 pips into UK Q3 GDP.
Support: 1.32551, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32634, 1.32716, 1.32824
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (f/c 0.7% QoQ, Sep MoM 0%) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the ema20 and the 1.3264 bounce high opens a retest of the 1.3272 asian low from below
Failure to hold the 1.3255 higher low and the 1.3250 session low resumes the downtrend leg
Reclaim of the 1.3282 asian high would negate the range break
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce from Asia low · RSI 43 · price 1.32619
Lower highs since NY selloff; micro higher lows off 1.3250.
The Asia session broke below the NY low at 1.3266 and printed an Asia low at 1.3250, extending the USD-driven slide after the hot US CPI. Price is now grinding up on higher lows into the 38.2% fib near 1.3262. The ema20 at 1.3264 sits just above, and RSI(14) has recovered to 43 from sub-30.
Support: 1.32588, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.3264, 1.32662, 1.32736
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3266 NY low and the ema50 at 1.3274 would negate the range break
A break of the 1.3259 higher low and the rising lows line puts the 1.3250 Asia low back in focus
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.7%, Sep MoM f/c 0%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3350, Asian low 1.3250 then small higher lows.
Cable broke the 1.3270–1.3280 Asian range lower at 02:15 UTC as the post-CPI USD bid extended. It printed an Asian low at 1.3250 with RSI(14) near 30, and the late-Asia bounce is capped at the ema20 (1.3264), between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Asia drop. Price holds below both EMAs, with small higher lows near 1.3255 into the London open, and ATR(14) at 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.32551, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32643, 1.32741, 1.32824
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC, roughly 2h out, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the ema20 and the 61.8% fib (~1.3269) brings the ema50 at 1.3274 and the asian high at 1.3282 into play
Loss of the 1.3255 higher low and a break of the 1.3250 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, short-term recovery off Asia low · RSI 43 · price 1.32612
Asia broke below prior NY low; micro higher lows rising toward ema20.
Asia session sold off the 1.3281 Asia high through the prior NY low at 1.3266, a USD-driven slide that bottomed at the 1.3250 Asia low with RSI(14) at 29.7. Price is now grinding back on a higher low at 1.3255, retesting the ema20 at 1.32647 just under the broken prior NY low, with ATR(14) easing to 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.32549, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32647, 1.32662, 1.32809
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 and 1.3266 prior NY low reclaims the broken level and opens the 50% of the Asia drop fib
Break of the 1.3255 higher low and recovery line puts the 1.3250 Asia low back in play
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.7%) could materially shift this read
Asian range break lower, basing above session low.
Cable broke below the Asian low at 1.3272 around 02:15 UTC as USD extended its post-CPI bid, printing a session low at 1.3250 before a shallow bounce. Price sits below the ema20 (1.3265) and ema50 (1.3275); RSI(14) has recovered to 39.4 from sub-30 and ATR is compressing to 5.8 pips late in the Asia session.
Support: 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32651, 1.32716, 1.32809
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 1.3265 and the asian low at 1.3272 would neutralise the Asia break leg
Failure to hold the session low at 1.3250 extends the lower-low sequence
Asian high at 1.3281 caps the range overhead; a reclaim would put the break down in question
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.7%) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; tight 1.3250–1.3259 range below ema20.
Cable broke down out of the 1.3272–1.3281 Asian range near 02:15 UTC, below Wednesday's NY low at 1.3266, as the post-CPI USD bid carried into Asia. The Asia drop of about 31 pips found a floor at the 1.3250 asia low, and price is now coiling in a 1.3250–1.3259 range below a falling ema20. RSI(14) has lifted to 37 from a sub-30 dip. ATR(14) of 5.9 pips is easing from 6.6.
Support: 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32591, 1.32657, 1.32809
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.7%) could materially shift this read within the next few bars
M15 close back above the ema20 near 1.3266 (also Wednesday's NY low) reclaims the broken level and puts the 1.3281 asia high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.3250 asia low confirms another lower-low in the downtrend
A break above the 1.3259 range top tests the 38.2–50% retracement of the Asia drop, 1.3262–1.3265
04:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 36 · price 1.3257
Asian range broken lower; lower highs, basing at 1.3250.
Late in the Asia session, cable broke out of its 1.3272–1.3281 Asian range and through yesterday's NY low near 1.3266. The Asian drop found a session low at 1.3250 as the post-CPI USD bid extended, and price now sits under a falling ema20 at 1.32665. RSI(14) has recovered to 36 from a brief dip below 30, and ATR is near 6 pips, with the low holding for now.
Support: 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3262, 1.32665, 1.3281
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; f/c 0.7% QoQ
M15 close above the 1.3262 bounce high and the ema20 at 1.32665 would neutralise the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3250 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 1.3281 asian high would invalidate the breakdown
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows in late Asia · RSI 34 · price 1.32563
Asian range broken lower; lower highs below ema20.
Cable broke below the 1.3272–1.3282 Asian range around 02:15 UTC, cutting through the NY-session prior low at 1.3266 to a session low at 1.3250 as the post-CPI USD bid extended. RSI(14) bounced from 29.7 to 33.6 and price is holding just above the low. It remains below the ema20 at 1.32675 and the ema50 at 1.32775, with ATR(14) expanding to 6.3 pips.
Support: 1.32498
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.32775, 1.3282
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (about 3h) could materially shift this read; ATR is likely to expand well beyond 6.3 pips
An M15 close back above the 1.3266 prior low and ema20 would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3250 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery to the ema50 at 1.32775 or the asian high at 1.3282 would put price back inside the Asian range, near the 61.8% fib of the late-Asia drop
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower in Asia · RSI 35 · price 1.32562
Lower highs and lows, Asian range broken to the downside.
Late Asia broke below the 1.3272–1.3281 Asian range and through the prior NY low at 1.3266 as the post-CPI USD bid extended, printing a session low at 1.3250. RSI(14) has lifted to 35 from just under 30, price sits below a now-falling ema20 and ema50, and ATR has expanded to 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.32688, 1.3281
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ny low at 1.3266 and ema20 near 1.3269 would mark the Asian break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3250 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 1.3281 asian high invalidates the downtrend read
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.7%) in ~3.5h could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, fresh lower low under the NY low.
Asia session broke down from its 1.3272–1.3282 range, from the asian high at 1.3282. Price cut through the NY low at 1.3266 to a session low at 1.3252 as the post-CPI USD bid extends. RSI(14) at 29.7 is oversold, ATR has expanded to 6.5 pips, and price sits below a now-declining ema20 (1.3270) and the ema50 (1.3279).
Support: 1.32516, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32662, 1.3270, 1.32824
What it said to watch
Hold below the 1.3250 round number confirms a further lower-low
Close back above the 1.3266 ny low puts price back toward the Asian range
Bounce stalling near the 38.2% retrace of the asian drop (~1.3263) keeps the downtrend sequence intact
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% q/q) at London open could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh 24h lows in late Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.3255
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since 1.3282.
Late Asia broke the 1.3272–1.3282 Asian range lower and cleared the 1.3262 prior low left at the NY rollover. The drop printed a session low at 1.3253, just above the 1.3250 round number, with US yields near 5% keeping USD bid. Price sits below the falling ema20 at 1.3272, RSI(14) is 30.6 and ATR is expanding to 6.6 pips.
Support: 1.3253, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3262, 1.32717, 1.32824
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (in ~4h) could materially shift this read; a miss fits the sub-1.3250 path
M15 close back above the 1.3262 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Sustained trade below 1.3250 round number extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.3272 puts price back inside the Asian range toward the 1.3282 asia high
RSI(14) dropping below 30 would put the move into oversold territory
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since NY session.
Late in the Asia session, GBPUSD broke the Asian range low near 1.3272 and the prior NY low at 1.3266, printing a 1.3253 asia low as the USD extends its post-CPI rally. ATR has expanded to 6.5 pips and RSI(14) sits at 31.6, close to but not yet oversold. Price trades below the ema20 (1.32735) and ema50 (1.32813), with lower highs from 1.3286 intact.
Support: 1.32528, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32662, 1.32735, 1.32824
What it said to watch
Holding below the ny low at 1.3266 keeps the range break valid; a reclaim puts price back inside the old Asian range
A break of the 1.3253 asia low exposes the 1.3250 round number and extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the ema20 at 1.32735 and the asian high at 1.3282 would break the lower highs trendline
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% q/q) could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside a 1.3266–1.3286 range, Asian floor broken.
Late Asia session: the 02:15 UTC bar broke the Asian range floor and is now pressing the 1.3266 NY low, with RSI(14) at 39.4 and price below both EMAs as the strong USD keeps GBP heavy. Since the 1.3286 NY bounce high, lower highs at 1.3282 and the 1.3281 Asian high have capped the recovery along a descending trendline. The 1.3261 day low sits just underneath.
Support: 1.32662, 1.32613
Resistance: 1.32753, 1.32809, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3261 day low extends the downtrend to fresh lows
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.3275 and the 1.3281 Asian high breaks the lower-high trendline
A move above the 1.3286 NY bounce high invalidates the lower-high read
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% q/q), about 4.5h out, could reset the range
02:16 UTC
Downtrend paused, Asian consolidation · RSI 47 · price 1.32729
Tight Asian range under ema20/ema50, lower highs from 1.3286.
After Wednesday's NY-session slide to the 1.3266 NY low on the post-CPI dollar bid, GBP/USD is holding a 1.3272–1.3282 Asian range, and the thin rollover spike low at 1.3261 was a false break that was quickly bought back. Price sits just under the ema20 (1.3276) and ema50 (1.3283), with RSI(14) neutral at 46.8 and lower highs from the 1.3286 swing high capping bounces below the 23.6% fib of the slide.
Support: 1.3272, 1.32662, 1.32613
Resistance: 1.32761, 1.32824, 1.32864
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (~5h) could break the Asian range either way
M15 close below the 1.3272 asian low exposes the 1.3266 ny low and the 1.3261 spike low
Close above the 1.3282 asian high and ema50 tests the lower-highs line near the 1.3286 swing high
Break under 1.3250 would confirm a fresh lower-low in the slide
ATR(14) at 5.5 pips, edging up from 4.5 through Asia
02:01 UTC
Flat after NY sell-off, below ema50 · RSI 52 · price 1.32784
Tight Asian range 1.3272–1.3282 inside post-NY base.
The hot-CPI dollar bid drove a 64-pip NY sell-off to the 1.3266 ny low. Since then GBPUSD has based in a narrow range, and the Asia session holds between the 1.3272 asian low and 1.3282 asian high. Price is a touch above a flat ema20 at 1.3276, while a falling ema50 at 1.3283 sits right on the asian high. That cap also lines up with the 23.6% of the NY sell-off fib, so price has yet to retrace even that much. RSI(14) at 51.5 is neutral and ATR(14) is 5.4 pips, so moves are compressed.
Support: 1.32763, 1.32716, 1.32662
Resistance: 1.32824, 1.32833, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high and ema50 (1.3282–1.3283) breaks the Asian range. The post-NY high at 1.3286 is the next cap.
Failure to hold the ema20, then a break of the 1.3272 asian low, exposes the 1.3266 ny low.
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (q/q f/c 0.7%) lands during the London open and could materially shift this read.
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 53 · price 1.32781
Lower highs above a tight Asian range, below a falling ema50.
Post-CPI dollar strength drove a ~90-pip slide from London into NY, basing at the 1.3266 NY low. A thin rollover spike to 1.3261 was quickly reversed. Asia is holding a 1.3272–1.3282 range, with price above the ema20 (1.32761) but capped under the falling ema50 (1.32835) along a line of lower highs. RSI 53 is neutral and ATR at 5.6 pips is edging up from 4.1.
Support: 1.32761, 1.32716, 1.32662
Resistance: 1.32824, 1.32835, 1.32864
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (q/q f/c 0.7%) lands at London open and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the ema50 and asian high at 1.3283–1.3284 breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.3286 ny high and the 38.2% ny sell-off fib at 1.3285 into play
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 1.3272 asian low exposes the 1.3266 ny low and the 1.3261 rollover spike low
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight Asian range · RSI 47 · price 1.32737
Lower highs below NY high; Asian range 1.3272–1.3282.
Hot US CPI and the Fed-driven USD bid fuelled the NY sell-off through 1.3300 to the 1.3266 NY low. The post-rollover sweep low at 1.3261 was bought back, and the Asian session now holds 1.3272–1.3282, with the Asian high at the 38.2% fib of the sell-off and price below EMA20 (1.3276) and EMA50 (1.3284). RSI(14) is neutral at 46.6 and ATR(14) a quiet 5.3 pips.
Support: 1.32716, 1.32662, 1.32613
Resistance: 1.32824, 1.32836, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3286 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
Acceptance above the 1.3282 Asian high and EMA50 at 1.3284 shifts the read to a deeper retracement
Loss of the 1.3272 Asian low exposes the 1.3266 NY low and the 1.3261 sweep low
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% QoQ) could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Downtrend paused, basing in Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.32801
Lower highs from NY intact; Asian range 1.3272–1.3282 with higher lows.
Cable slid about 90 pips from 1.3355 into the NY session as the hot-CPI USD bid extended, basing near 1.3266. A thin rollover dip to the 1.3261 rollover low was reclaimed. Asia is holding a 1.3272–1.3282 range above a flat ema20, with price pressing the asian high and the ema50 at 1.3284 plus the 1.3286 ny high capping the lower-high sequence.
Support: 1.32759, 1.32716, 1.32613
Resistance: 1.32824, 1.3284, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3286 ny high and ema50 breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.3272 asian low reopens the 1.3261 rollover low
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% QoQ) in about 6h could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.3274
Post-slide consolidation 1.3266–1.3286 under ema50, lower highs intact.
The hot US CPI USD bid drove a 94-pip slide from 1.3355 through 1.3300 across London-NY, bottoming at the 1.3266 NY low. A thin post-NY sweep low at 1.3261 was bought back, and the Asia session is coiling between ema20 and the 1.3282 Asia high under a lower highs line, RSI 49, ATR 5.1 pips.
Support: 1.3266, 1.3261
Resistance: 1.3282, 1.3284, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3284 ema50 and the lower highs line opens a retest of 1.3300 psych
Loss of the 1.3266 ny low and the 1.3261 sweep low resumes the lower-low sequence
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% QoQ) during the London open could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 44 · price 1.3272
Lower highs below the EMAs, tight Asian range above the swept NY low.
The post-CPI USD bid drove GBP/USD through 1.3300 during NY hours to a 1.3266 NY low. A thin rollover dip to 1.3261 swept that low and recovered. Asia is now ranging 1.3272–1.3282 under the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 43.7 and ATR at 5.1 pips.
Support: 1.32662, 1.32613
Resistance: 1.32754, 1.32824, 1.32845
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3282 asia high and the ema50 at 1.3285 breaks the lower highs line
Failure to hold the 1.3261 rollover low extends the lower-low sequence below the ny low
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (~6h, QoQ f/c 0.7%) could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a range · RSI 45 · price 1.32739
Range 1.3266–1.3286 below both EMAs after NY sell-off, lower highs.
Hot-CPI USD demand drove GBPUSD from 1.3355 to a 1.3266 ny low, and price has since held a 1.3266–1.3286 range below both EMAs. The rollover dip to the 1.3261 rollover low was swept and reclaimed, but the 1.3282 late high printed another lower high under ema50. Early Asia is pinned just under ema20 near the 1.3272 asia low, with RSI at 45.
Support: 1.32716, 1.32662, 1.32613
Resistance: 1.32757, 1.32824, 1.3285
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3285 ema50 and 1.3286 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 1.3266 ny low and 1.3261 rollover low resumes the downtrend
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% QoQ) could materially shift this read
Asia low at 1.3272 is first intraday support. Ema20 at 1.3276 is the near cap
00:16 UTC
Downtrend paused, ranging below both EMAs · RSI 46 · price 1.32747
1.3266–1.3286 range since the NY low, rollover false break below.
The Fed-driven USD bid took GBP/USD through 1.3300 psych during Wednesday's sell-off. Since the 1.3266 NY low, price has held a band capped at the 1.3286 range top, near the 38.2% retrace of that leg. A rollover dip to the 1.3261 sweep low reversed to a 1.3282 late high around Greene's hawkish remarks, and early Asia now trades just under the ema20 with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.32662, 1.32613
Resistance: 1.32824, 1.32864, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3266 ny low and 1.3261 sweep low breaks the range lower
Close above the 1.3282 late high and 1.3286 range top reopens the 1.3300 psych level
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% QoQ) is the next scheduled catalyst for range resolution
ATR(14) at 5.3 pips keeps Asian-range moves small until London open
00:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a base · RSI 47 · price 1.32755
Tight base 1.3261–1.3286 after the NY break below 1.3300.
Hot US CPI follow-through drove the NY break below 1.3300 to a 1.32662 ny low. Since then price has held a 1.3266–1.3286 base. A thin rollover sweep low at 1.32613 was reclaimed into Greene's hawkish remarks, capped at the 1.32824 late high near the 23.6% fib. Early Asia is sitting just under EMA20 (1.3276) and below EMA50 (1.32859), with RSI(14) neutral at 47.3 and ATR(14) at 5.2 pips.
Support: 1.32662, 1.32613
Resistance: 1.32824, 1.32864
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.32864 ny high, which sits with EMA50, breaks the base and tests the 38.2% fib near 1.3288
Failure to hold the 1.32662 ny low and 1.32613 sweep low resumes the lower-low sequence
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% QoQ) is likely to break the Asian range either way