Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3137 false break; multi-week range top cleared.
Cable spent most of the window in a 1.3180-1.3280 range before a false break to 1.3137 reversed into a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The move cleared the range top, held a higher low at 1.3296 near the 38.2% fib of the 1.3137-1.3409 leg, and pushed through the 1.3371 prior high to a 1.3409 swing high on the hawkish UK jobs beat and a softer USD. Price sits above both EMAs with EMA20 over EMA50, RSI near 67 and ATR(14) steady around 30 pips.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3296, 1.3280
Resistance: 1.3409
What it said to watch
UK CPI Wed 21 Oct 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a miss threatens heavily priced BoE hike bets
H4 close above the 1.3409 swing high extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.3371 prior high returns price to the prior consolidation
H4 close below the 1.3296 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline; back under the 1.3280 range top puts the breakout in question
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3137 spike low; multi-week range broken to the upside.
Cable swept below the multi-week 1.3180-1.3310 range to the 1.3137 spike low, then reversed. It has since printed higher highs and higher lows, with the 1.3296 swing low holding and the prior high at 1.3371 now cleared. Tuesday's UK jobs beat and a softer USD on US-Iran deal reports pushed price to a 1.3409 swing high, where the latest bar left an upper wick at the 1.3400 psych level. ATR(14) has expanded to ~30 pips from the low-20s seen during the range, and EMA20 is above EMA50, consistent with an extending trend rather than compression.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3296, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3409
What it said to watch
UK CPI Wed Oct 21 06:00 GMT is the next test: a hot print could drive a clean break of the 1.3400 psych and 1.3409 swing high, while a soft print puts the prior high at 1.3371 and the 38.2% fib near 1.3305 in focus
An H4 close back below the prior high at 1.3371 would turn the latest push into a failed breakout attempt at 1.3400
A break of the 1.3296 swing low and the higher-low trendline would end the higher-low sequence
US S&P Global PMIs Fri Oct 23 and any US-Iran deal denial could revive the USD and cap the advance
A move back toward the 1.3137 spike low would bring the sweep low into play
After two weeks capped in a 1.3182–1.3285 range, a sweep to 1.3137 reversed into an impulse that broke the range top and peaked at the 1.3371 prior high, helped by last week's UK GDP and production beats and a softening USD. The pullback held a swing low at 1.3296, just above the old range top and near the 23.6–38.2% fib of the impulse, and price is now pressing the 1.3359 recent high. EMA20 sits above EMA50, and ATR(14) near 28 pips is contracting from the breakout expansion.
Support: 1.3296, 1.3285, 1.3182
Resistance: 1.3359, 1.3371
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3371 prior high extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3296 swing low and a close back inside the range top at 1.3285 would read as a false break
A return to the 1.3182 range low would negate the range break
UK CPI Wed 06:00 GMT (~17h): a soft print against heavy BoE hike pricing could materially shift this read
Bailey Thursday and US PMIs Friday are further event risk for the higher-low structure
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the swing high · RSI 65 · price 1.33503
Higher lows since the 1.3137 false break; tight consolidation above the old range top.
Two weeks of 1.3180–1.3311 ranging ended with a false break to 1.3137. Price then rallied 235 pips to the 1.3371 swing high, clearing the old range top on the strong UK GDP and production beats. The pullback held at 1.3296, a pullback low just shy of the fib 38.2 at 1.3282, and turned the 1.3311 breakout level into support. Today's jobs beat has price back near 1.3350, with EMA20 above EMA50 and ATR(14) steady near 30 pips.
Support: 1.3311, 1.3296, 1.3282
Resistance: 1.3371, 1.3400
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.3371 swing high extends the higher-high sequence and opens the 1.3400 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3296 pullback low breaks the higher-low trendline and brings the fib 38.2 at 1.3282 into play
Losing the 1.3311 breakout level on a closing basis weakens the range-break read
UK CPI Wed 06:00 GMT (f/c 3.4% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a slide back toward 1.3260
Higher lows since the 1.3137 false break, tight consolidation above range top.
After two weeks boxed in a 1.3180–1.3285 range, the false break to 1.3137 reversed into a rally that cleared the range top. Beats in UK GDP and output data, alongside a soft dollar, carried the move to the 1.3371 swing high. Since then price has compressed between the 1.3296 pullback low and a 1.3342 range cap, holding above both EMAs with EMA20 over EMA50 and ATR(14) easing to about 28 pips. The higher-lows sequence off the false break remains intact.
Support: 1.3296, 1.3280, 1.3254
Resistance: 1.3342, 1.3371, 1.3387
What it said to watch
UK jobs and wage data at 06:00 UTC today, then UK CPI Wednesday, could break the 1.3296–1.3342 consolidation either way
An H4 close above the 1.3342 range cap reopens the 1.3371 swing high and the 1.3387 sept high
Failure to hold the 1.3296 pullback low exposes the 1.3280 range top and the rally's 38.2% retracement near 1.3282
A move back below the fib 50% at 1.3254 would undercut the rising lows and the breakout read
US S&P Global PMIs on Friday are the main USD-side test
01:01 UTC
Range break higher, now retesting · RSI 59 · price 1.33111
Breakout from 1.3180–1.3310 range, pullback to old range top.
After nearly two weeks capped in a 1.3180–1.3310 range, the false break to 1.3137 reversed sharply. UK GDP and production beats then helped drive a range break to a 1.3371 swing high. Price has since printed a lower high at 1.3342 and is retesting the old range top near 1.3300–1.3310, with the 1.3296 swing low just beneath and price holding marginally above a flattening EMA20, well clear of EMA50. ATR(14) near 27 pips has expanded from the range phase.
Support: 1.3296, 1.3282, 1.3254
Resistance: 1.3342, 1.3371, 1.3387
What it said to watch
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC and CPI Wed 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 1.3296 swing low turns the retest into a failed breakout and exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3282, then the 50% fib at 1.3254
Close above the 1.3342 lower high reopens the 1.3371 swing high and 1.3387 window high
US S&P PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the main USD-side risk to the structure