22:24 UTC
Downtrend resuming, below falling EMA(50) · RSI 39 · price 1.32108
Lower high at 1.3503 under the August 1.3675 peak; rally since October largely retraced.
Cable has carved a lower high at 1.3503 beneath the August 1.3675 peak, and the descending lower-high line has held. The rejection began in the first week of November, and the decline gathered pace this week after the hot US CPI print. Price has since slipped back below the ema20 (1.3336) and ema50 (1.3353), with EMA(50) now rolling lower and RSI sliding from 64 to 38.8. The drop has erased about 78.6% of the October–November rally on the rally fib, and price now sits about 40 pips above the late-September swing low at 1.3181, with the 4m low at 1.3137 below that, despite a run of UK data beats.
Support: 1.3181, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3336, 1.3353, 1.3503
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.3181 swing low and then the 1.3137 4m low confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend
- Recovery back above the ema20/ema50 cluster at 1.3336–1.3353 neutralises the breakdown and returns the pair to the 1.3137–1.3503 range
- A daily close above the lower high at 1.3503, through the lower-high line, invalidates the lower-high structure
- Fed Chair Warsh Mon 16 Nov 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a 'gradual' message is the main USD pullback risk
- UK wages/unemployment Tue 07:00 GMT and UK Oct CPI Wed 07:00 GMT; soft prints would add pressure on the swing low