Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:05 UTC
Recovering within multi-month range · RSI 64 · price 0.58129
Higher lows off June base, testing range resistance.
NZDUSD has spent the quarter ranging between 0.5630 and 0.5990, and price is now recovering off the mid-June low near 0.5630 in a two-week rally fuelled by the hawkish RBNZ hike and a soft US June CPI print. The advance is stalling into the 0.5840-0.5845 200-DMA confluence, with RSI in the mid-60s and price holding above both EMA20 and EMA50. Higher lows since mid-June define the recovery structure.
Support: 0.5800, 0.5672
Resistance: 0.5845, 0.5892, 0.5990
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 0.5845 200-dma confluence opens 0.5892 then the 0.5990 swing high
- Failure to hold 0.5800 round number reopens the 0.5672 swing low
- NZ 2Q CPI (20 Jul) is the key RBNZ catalyst; US Retail Sales Thu could shift the USD side of this read
21:05 UTC
Recovery uptrend off June lows · RSI 61 · price 0.58129
Higher lows since mid-June, capped near 0.5845.
NZDUSD has been carving a rounded base off the mid-June 0.56262 low, and the recent leg higher has reclaimed both EMA20 and EMA50, pushing price back to 0.5813. The rally is running on hawkish RBNZ repricing plus a softer USD after cool June CPI/PPI, but it is now pressing the 0.5840-0.5845 200-DMA confluence that has repeatedly capped the move. Price sits around the 50% retracement of the May-June 0.5994-0.56262 decline.
Support: 0.5800, 0.5700, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.5845, 0.5892, 0.5900
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 0.5845 confluence opens 0.5892 then 0.5900
- Failure to hold 0.5800 shifts focus back toward 0.5700
- NZ 2Q CPI on 20 Jul is the key catalyst for this read
- US Retail Sales Thu 16 Jul could move the USD side