Higher-high, higher-low structure has held since the Oct 14 low at 0.5565. The latest higher low sits at 0.5672, and price is now pressing the 0.5700 psych handle and the 0.5704 window high after clearing the late-Sep high (sep high) near 0.5687. The roughly 140-pip rebound tracks fading Fed-hike bets and a softer USD, with RBNZ hike odds largely priced in. ATR(14) near 13 pips is steady rather than expanding, and price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5687, 0.5672
Resistance: 0.5704, 0.5750
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC: a soft print (≤3.7% y/y) risks unwinding the rally toward the 0.5650 area, near the 38.2% retrace of the rebound fib
An H4 close back below the 0.5687 sep high would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5672 higher low breaks the higher-low support trendline and the swing sequence
Acceptance above the 0.5704 window high opens room toward the 0.5750 round number; Friday's US flash PMIs carry USD squeeze risk
Higher highs and higher lows since the Oct 14 low; prior 0.5580-0.5630 range cleared.
The Oct 14 dip to 0.5565 was a false break below the multi-week 0.5580 floor. From there NZDUSD rebounded about 135 pips on fading Fed-hike bets, a softer USD and the China GDP beat. Price cleared the 0.5630 range top and has since printed higher lows at 0.5641 (pullback low) and 0.5672 (higher low). It is now pressing the 0.5699 swing high just under the 0.5700 handle. Price sits above both EMAs following the EMA20/EMA50 crossover during the rally. ATR(14) near 13 pips shows an orderly advance rather than an expansion.
Support: 0.56716, 0.56407, 0.5630
Resistance: 0.56987
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) with ~80% RBNZ hike priced; a soft print risks unwinding the rebound
H4 close above the 0.5699 swing high / 0.5700 handle extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5672 higher low and the rising support line breaks the higher-low structure
A move back below the 0.5641 pullback low brings the range top / 50% fib near 0.5630 into play
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could revive USD demand into next week's FOMC
NZDUSD has printed higher highs and higher lows since the Oct 14 low at 0.5565, a rebound of about 135 pips driven by fading Fed-hike bets and lower US yields. EMA20 has crossed above EMA50, and the latest higher low at 0.5672 held before price returned toward the 0.5699 swing high, which sits just under the 0.5700 round number and the late-Sep highs. ATR(14) has eased from the Oct 14 expansion to about 14.5 pips, so price is compressing under resistance ahead of tonight's NZ Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.5672, 0.5641, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5699
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 0.5699 swing high and 0.5700 round number would extend the higher-high sequence beyond the window's range
Failure to hold the 0.5672 swing low breaks the latest higher low; a deeper move toward the 0.5641 higher low would test the 38.2% retracement of the Oct 14 rally
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; with about 80% of an RBNZ hike priced, a soft print carries more downside risk
US flash PMIs on Friday and next week's FOMC could reprice USD and challenge the rising trendline from the 0.5641 higher low
Only a return below the Oct 14 low at 0.5565 would fully unwind the rebound structure
09:04 UTC
Uptrend off Oct 14 low, pressing 0.5700 · RSI 65 · price 0.56879
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.5565 low, capped below late-Sept high.
NZDUSD has printed higher highs and higher lows since the Oct 14 multi-month low at 0.5565, with the breakout through the 0.5634 prior high and the EMA20 crossing above the EMA50 marking the swing turn. The rally came on fading Fed-hike bets and roughly 80% RBNZ hike pricing into Q3 CPI, but it is stalling at the 0.5699 swing high, just under the 0.5700 handle and the 0.5705 sept high. ATR(14) near 13-14 pips is well below early-October readings, so the pair is compressing into the CPI release while holding above the rising lows line and the 0.5672 swing low.
Support: 0.5672, 0.5641, 0.5634
Resistance: 0.5699, 0.5705
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts RBNZ hike pricing at risk
H4 close above the 0.5705 sept high clears the window top and extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5672 swing low and the rising lows line points to a deeper pullback toward the 38.2% retracement
Break below the 0.5641 pullback low would end the higher-low structure; the 0.5634 prior high is the next support below
US PMIs Friday and oil/Iran headlines remain the USD-side risk to this read
05:04 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 0.5700 · RSI 63 · price 0.56756
Higher highs and higher lows since the Oct 14 swing low at 0.5565.
Higher-high, higher-low sequence intact since the Oct 14 swing low at 0.5565 (0.5591, 0.5641, 0.5655 lows), with EMA20 crossing above EMA50 during the Oct 16 leg on strong China GDP and NZ PMI data. The advance stalled with a rejection at the 0.5699 swing high, just below the 0.5712 sept high at the top of the window, and price is holding above the 0.5672 recent low. ATR(14) near 13 pips is moderate, not compressing, ahead of NZ Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.5672, 0.5655, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5699, 0.5712
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.5699 swing high exposes the 0.5712 sept high and the late-Sept range top
Loss of the 0.5672 recent low points back to the 0.5655 higher low and rising trendline
Break below the 0.5655 higher low marks the first lower low since Oct 14, putting the 0.5641 swing low and 38.2% fib in play
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a soft print as the larger-reaction case
US S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations on Friday, plus US-Iran headlines, are the USD-side risks
01:03 UTC
Uptrend off the Oct 14 low, stalling under 0.5700 · RSI 64 · price 0.56772
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.5565, capped below 0.5700.
The late-September decline bottomed at the 0.5565 Oct 14 low. Since then price has printed higher highs and higher lows, with a 0.5641 swing low on Oct 16 and a 0.5655 pivot low on Oct 19, and EMA20 has crossed above EMA50. The rally, helped by a softer USD and roughly 80% RBNZ hike pricing into CPI, met rejection at the 0.5699 swing high just under the 0.5700 handle. ATR(14) near 13 pips is a contained regime ahead of a binary data event.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5641, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5699, 0.5718
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI Oct 21 21:45 UTC is binary for this read: a soft print risks unwinding the rally from the Oct 14 low
H4 close above the 0.5699 swing high and 0.5700 opens the path to the 0.5718 sep high at the top of the window
Break of the rising lows line near the 0.5655 pivot low would mark the first lower low since mid-October
Failure to hold the 0.5641 swing low, near the 38.2% fib, breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 61.8% fib near 0.5616 in focus
US S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations on Fri Oct 23 could reprice USD and shift this read