21:07 UTC
Downtrend, four-week slide pressing below 0.5700 · RSI 31 · price 0.56914
Lower high at 0.5988 under the May 0.5994 peak, lower lows since late August, 0.5700 floor broken on close.
The four-week downtrend from the 0.5988 August high, a marginal lower high beneath May's 0.5994 peak, has now retraced more than 78.6% of the June–August rally. Today's close at 0.5691 is the first daily finish below the 0.5700 broken floor, which held for five sessions. Strong US PMIs and Fed October-hike repricing drove the break, overriding supportive NZ GDP. Price sits below a declining EMA(20) near 0.5790 and below EMA(50), and RSI around 31 is approaching oversold after sellers capped every bounce at the 0.5750 sept highs.
Support: 0.5683, 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5750, 0.5790
What it said to watch
- Further daily closes below the 0.5700 broken floor confirm the range break; a quick reclaim would mark it as a false break
- A break of the 0.5683 sept low exposes 0.5650 psych and then the 0.5626 june low, the base of the June–August rally
- A recovery through the 0.5750 sept highs and the ema20 near 0.5790 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
- RSI dropping below 30 would put D1 in genuine oversold territory, where sharp short-covering bounces become more likely
- Trump-Xi talks Thursday, plus US jobless claims and Fed speakers, could materially shift this read