USDCAD has trended higher since Monday's open, tagging an eight-week high at 1.3925 in the NY session before stalling. Price has since pulled back to consolidate just above the EMA20 near 1.3895, with a soft CAD on lower oil keeping the bid intact. Rejection at 1.3925 capped the latest push and RSI(14) has flattened around 55 after the run.
Support: 1.3895, 1.38807, 1.3850
Resistance: 1.39128, 1.39246
What it said to watch
US NFP and Canadian jobs Fri ~14h could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.39246 reopens the path higher
Loss of 1.38807 swing low confirms a deeper pullback
Higher highs and higher lows, pulling back from week high.
USD/CAD has graded higher all week, from Monday's open near 1.3790 to a fresh week high at 1.39246, with CAD pressured by softer oil and a firm USD. Price has stalled and consolidated just under 1.3910 after Thursday's USD pared some gains on the soft jobless claims miss, with RSI(14) easing back toward the mid-50s. Pullbacks have so far held above the rising EMA20 around 1.3892.
Support: 1.38807, 1.3892, 1.38468
Resistance: 1.39128, 1.39246
What it said to watch
Dual US NFP and Canada jobs Friday 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.39246 extends the week's uptrend
Failure to hold the 1.38807 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling near week high · RSI 57 · price 1.39099
Higher highs and higher lows; pullback to EMA20 holding.
USDCAD has trended higher all week from the 1.3787 open, with the NY session two days ago driving the breakout above 1.3860 and price extending to a week high at 1.3925 yesterday. Pullback to 1.3880 found buyers right at the rising EMA20, and RSI is cycling around 55-60 on dips rather than rolling over. Range top at 1.3925 still capping for now.
Support: 1.3887, 1.3867, 1.3845
Resistance: 1.3925, 1.3916
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3925 week high extends the trend
Break and hold below 1.3887 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
Loss of 1.3867 ema20 zone would shift the read to corrective
Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating below week high.
USDCAD has trended steadily higher across the week from the 1.3782 base into a 1.3924 week high made during yesterday's NY session, with each pullback finding the EMA(20). Price has stalled in a tight 1.3887–1.3913 range through Asia and early London, and RSI(14) carved a lower high into the latest push — a mild bearish divergence as momentum cools. The 1.3913–1.3924 zone is the immediate ceiling; the session low at 1.3887 is the first structural reference below.
Support: 1.38869, 1.3860, 1.38225
Resistance: 1.39128, 1.39246, 1.3950
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.39246 week high extends the uptrend toward the 1.3950 psych level
Loss of 1.38869 session low opens a deeper retrace toward the EMA(20) near 1.3860
US payrolls referenced in the headlines is the main external risk to this read
Higher highs and higher lows, pullback from week peak.
USDCAD has trended higher all week from the 1.3785 base into a 1.3925 week high during yesterday's NY session, holding above EMA(20) on every pullback. The latest push to the week high faded into 1.3900 with a bearish RSI divergence printing as price made a higher high on softer momentum. Since then the pair is consolidating around the 1.39 round number after a session low at 1.38807.
Support: 1.38869, 1.3866, 1.38225
Resistance: 1.39246, 1.39128, 1.38979
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.38869 session low would break the higher-low sequence
Loss of EMA20 near 1.3866 opens the prior swing at 1.38225
Reclaim of 1.39128 reopens a test of the 1.39246 week high
Friday US jobs data could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows, pullback in progress.
USDCAD has trended steadily higher since Monday's open, accelerating into Wednesday's NY session to print the week high at 1.39246 before stalling. Price has since rolled back under EMA(20) toward the session low around 1.38869, with RSI cooling from overbought as the latest push to 1.39246 failed to confirm momentum — a bearish divergence against the prior 1.39128 peak. Structure remains constructive above the 1.38569 breakout shelf, but the immediate read is pullback within uptrend.
Support: 1.38869, 1.38807, 1.38569
Resistance: 1.39246, 1.39128, 1.39041
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.39041 would reassert the trend toward the 1.39246 week high
Loss of 1.38807 swing low would break the week's higher-low sequence
US jobs data referenced by Bessent could materially shift this read in the next session
USDCAD has trended higher through the week, with the NY session yesterday driving the breakout from 1.3867 up to the 1.3925 week high before stalling. Price is now pulling back into the session low at 1.3887 while holding above the EMA(20), and RSI has rolled off the highs against a marginally higher price print — a mild bearish divergence consistent with momentum cooling rather than reversing.
Support: 1.38869, 1.3867, 1.3852
Resistance: 1.39128, 1.39246
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.3887 session low opens a deeper test of the 1.3867 breakout base
Reclaim of 1.3925 week high would re-engage the broader uptrend
Loss of EMA20 near 1.3852 would shift the H1 read from pullback to corrective
USDCAD has trended steadily higher since Monday's open, with each NY session extending the move and yesterday's NY hours pushing through 1.3920 before stalling. Today's NY session has seen rejection from 1.3904 and a fade back to the session low at 1.3880, with RSI(14) rolling from overbought into the low-50s while price still holds the broader uptrend. The Middle East risk premium and TD's structurally bearish USDCAD view are both circulating, leaving the pair sensitive at the week-high resistance.
Support: 1.38807, 1.3850, 1.38225
Resistance: 1.3904, 1.39246
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.3904 intraday cap puts the week high at 1.3924 back in play
Loss of 1.3880 session low opens the prior breakout zone near 1.3850
Sustained break of 1.3850 would invalidate the this-week uptrend read
Iran ceasefire headlines remain a live risk for both USD and CAD