USDCAD has carried a clean higher-high/higher-low sequence through the window and just accelerated through the 1.3925 two-month high, with the latest H4 bar pushing to 1.39348 on broad USD demand after the strong NFP print. Price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50 and ATR has expanded with the breakout. RSI near 68 reflects stretched but not yet exhausted momentum.
Support: 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3938
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.3925 would negate the breakout and put the move back inside range
BoC decision Jun 10 plus the hot CAD jobs print are catalysts that could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.3900 round number would signal a deeper pullback toward the rising support
USDCAD has carried a clean higher-high/higher-low structure off the early-month 1.3670 base, tagging an eight-week high at 1.39246 before rejecting back under the 1.39 round number. Today's twin labour-market beats — a 172K US NFP and a blowout 87.8K Canadian jobs print — leave the pair pinned against the 1.39 ceiling as CAD strength offsets the firmer dollar. ATR(14) is steady; price now hovers above EMA20 with EMA50 well below near 1.383.
Support: 1.38675, 1.3826, 1.38146
Resistance: 1.3900, 1.39246
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.3826 breaks the higher-low structure
H4 close above 1.39246 opens the path higher
BoC rate decision Jun 10 and US CPI Wed are the next catalysts
USDCAD extended its higher-high/higher-low sequence to an 8-week high at 1.3925 before stalling and slipping back under the 1.3900 pivot, with CAD lagging on widening US-Canada rate spreads. The pullback holds well above the rising trendline off the early-June low, keeping the uptrend structure intact while momentum cools. Dual US payrolls and Canada jobs at 12:30 GMT are the immediate catalyst around this level.
Support: 1.3835, 1.3800, 1.3770
Resistance: 1.3900, 1.3925
What it said to watch
Dual US/CA jobs at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H4 close below 1.3835 breaks the higher-low structure
Close above 1.3925 opens the path to fresh multi-month highs
Higher highs and higher lows, pulling back from swing high.
USDCAD remains in an H4 uptrend, printing higher highs and higher lows since the early-month base near 1.3670, with CAD soft all week on widening USD-favorable rate spreads. Price broke above 1.3870 and stretched to a swing high at 1.39246 before rejecting back below the 1.3900 psych level. ATR is steady around 19 pips and both EMAs sit below price, but the latest bar's failure at 1.3912 shows momentum cooling into the jobs data.
Support: 1.38468, 1.37889, 1.37699
Resistance: 1.3900, 1.39246
What it said to watch
Dual US payrolls and Canadian jobs at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
H4 close above 1.39246 swing high extends the uptrend toward fresh April highs
Failure to hold 1.38468 prior high breaks the higher-low structure
08:53 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 63 · price 1.38858
Higher highs and higher lows since early-month base.
USDCAD extended its multi-week climb to a swing high of 1.39246 as CAD softened ~0.8% on the week against a firm USD and widening rate spreads. Higher-low structure remains intact above the rising EMA20/EMA50, with the latest bar pulling back from highs after a 200-pip impulse off the late-May 1.37699 base. ATR is steady — trend is extending rather than compressing.
Support: 1.38807, 1.38146, 1.37699
Resistance: 1.39246, 1.3955
What it said to watch
Dual CA/US jobs at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
Close above 1.39246 opens the path toward the 1.39550 psych level
Failure to hold 1.38807 confirms a near-term lower-high
Sustained uptrend on H4 with higher lows intact since the 1.37699 base; price cleared the 1.38628 ceiling and is now probing the 1.39246 swing high, consistent with USD firmness and soft CAD data widening rate spreads into jobs. The 1.39000 psych level held as support on the latest pullback, keeping the rising channel intact. ATR is expanding as the move extends rather than compressing.
Support: 1.38807, 1.38628, 1.37699
Resistance: 1.39246, 1.3900, 1.3950
What it said to watch
US NFP and Canadian jobs at 12:30 GMT (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
H4 close above 1.39246 opens the path toward 1.39500
Failure to hold 1.38807 confirms a lower-low and breaks the channel
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending · RSI 66 · price 1.39069
Higher highs and higher lows since late-month low.
USDCAD is trending higher with a clean sequence of higher lows since the 1.3770 base, pushing to fresh eight-week highs near 1.3925 as a firm USD on hawkish Fed pricing meets a soft CAD. Price cleared the prior 1.3870 consolidation cap and is holding the breakout, with EMA20 and EMA50 stacked below. ATR(14) sits around 18 pips, a moderate-expansion regime consistent with the ongoing drive.
Support: 1.38628, 1.38146, 1.37699
Resistance: 1.39246, 1.3940
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls and Canada employment ~12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H4 close back below 1.38628 breaks the breakout retest and threatens the higher-low chain
Acceptance above 1.39246 opens the path toward the 1.3940 psych area