USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 8 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Downtrend within week range · RSI 44 · price 1.41688
Lower highs off 1.4238, basing near lows.
USD/CAD rolled over from the 1.4238 week high, grinding lower through the NY session to a 1.4155 swing low before basing near stated fair value ~1.4158. Price sits below both EMA(20) ~1.4185 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) in the low 40s and the ema20 capping the bounce; CAD has firmed on the recent oil bid. The broader 1.4155–1.4238 consolidation is still intact.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4130, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.4200, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4155 swing low opens the path toward the 1.4130 range base
Reclaim of the 1.4185 ema20 needed to re-test the 1.4200 pivot
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 GMT could break the consolidation band
Lower highs since Tuesday's high, testing week low.
USDCAD has trended lower since Tuesday's high at 1.4238, sliding through the NY session to retest the week low near 1.4155, with CAD supported by the oil bid. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50, and the bounce to 1.4196 was capped, keeping the lower-highs sequence intact. RSI(14) is holding in the low-40s as the move flattens near fair value around 1.4158.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4196, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4155 opens the path to 1.4130
Reclaim of 1.4196 would challenge the lower-highs structure
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs off week peak, consolidating above week low.
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4238 week high midweek and printed a run of lower highs, sliding to a 1.4155 week low before stabilising near 1.4170 as CAD drew support from the oil bid. Price sits just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) mid-40s; the 1.4200 pivot has capped every attempt since the peak. FOMC minutes landed today and Canada jobs Friday are the near-term swing factors.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4155 confirms a fresh lower low toward 1.4130 key support
Reclaim of the 1.4200 pivot would break the lower-high sequence
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 1.4238 peak, basing above week low.
USDCAD stalled at the 1.4238 week high mid-week and has rolled over, shedding roughly 80 pips into a 1.4155 week low as the oil bid kept CAD firm on Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines. Price now consolidates just under the EMA20 at ~1.4177 with RSI mid-40s, having reclaimed part of the drop but capped below the 1.4200 pivot. The former range top near 1.4130 sits as the next demand shelf.
Support: 1.4156, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4177, 1.4200, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4200 pivot reopens the path toward the 1.4238 week high
Failure to hold the 1.4155 week low confirms a lower low toward 1.4130
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USD/CAD topped near 1.4238 midweek then rolled into a run of lower highs, with CAD firm on the oil spike after Trump declared the Iran MoU 'over'. Price now sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, consolidating a 1.4155–1.4196 band after the 1.4200 pivot capped the last bounce; RSI(14) mid-40s reflects the stall rather than fresh selling.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4238
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.4200 pivot would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.4155 week low opens the 1.4130 range base
Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines drive oil and CAD directly; Canada jobs Fri 12:30 GMT is the near-term swing factor
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.4238 peak, basing above 1.4155.
USDCAD has rolled over from Tuesday's 1.4238 high, printing a sequence of lower highs as CAD firmed on the oil spike, and the sharpest leg lower came during the NY session with the drop to 1.4155. Price is now consolidating just below EMA20 (~1.4180) with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, having bounced off the 1.4155 swing low. The 1.4200 pivot has capped the recovery attempts.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4130, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4180, 1.4200, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4155 opens the path toward 1.4130 range top
Reclaim of 1.4200 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
USD/CAD faded through the NY session back toward 1.4165 after a bounce to 1.41959 was rejected, keeping the pair in a sequence of lower highs off Tuesday's 1.42259 print. Oil's Iran-driven rally has lent CAD a bid, sliding the pair off the week's range top while price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The 1.41546 week low is the pivot; RSI(14) cycling in the low-40s reflects the softer intraday tone.
Support: 1.41546, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.41959, 1.42259
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.41546 confirms a lower low, opening the 1.4130 range floor
Recovery above 1.41959 swing high needed to negate the lower-high sequence
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD rolled over from the mid-week 1.42383 high after a sharp NY-session selloff drove it to the 1.41546 week low; the CAD bid tracked the WTI rally on renewed Hormuz risk. A bounce to 1.41959 was faded back and price is now consolidating near 1.4165, holding below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) sub-50. Lower highs remain intact since the peak.
Support: 1.41546, 1.4166
Resistance: 1.41959, 1.42226, 1.42383
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.41546 confirms a lower low
Reclaim above 1.41959 breaks the descending lower-high sequence
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Range, tilting lower · RSI 42 · price 1.41667
Week-long range, probing lows.
USDCAD has consolidated 1.4150-1.4250 since Monday's open, and the pair sold off through the NY session on Jul 8 as an oil-led CAD bid pushed it back toward the range low near 1.4155. Price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) sub-50, and the bounce off 1.4155 stalled around 1.4196. Move was crude-driven rather than a rate-spread shift, with the broader range still intact.
Support: 1.41546, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4196, 1.4238, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4155 opens the path toward the 1.4130 swing low
Reclaim of 1.4196 session high puts range mid back in play
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC and FOMC minutes today could reset the range read
USDCAD rolled over from 1.4225 through the NY session as an oil rally on renewed Iran-Hormuz risk lifted CAD, and the pair now trades below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) near the week's 1.4155 support. A bounce into 1.4189 was sold, keeping the lower-high sequence intact. Demand around 1.4155 has held so far, but the intraday structure stays offered.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4189, 1.4225
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4155 confirms a lower low toward 1.4130
Reclaim of 1.4189 negates the lower-high sequence
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC and FOMC minutes today can shift this read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce fading · RSI 43 · price 1.41729
Lower highs after break below range.
USDCAD rolled over from the week high at 1.42383 and sold off hard through the London-NY transition, printing a week low at 1.41546 as an oil-led Loonie bid pressured the pair. The bounce to 1.41890 stalled near the 50% retracement of that drop and price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50, with lower highs building. RSI(14) cycling in the low-40s reflects the fading recovery.
Support: 1.41546, 1.41625
Resistance: 1.4189, 1.4200, 1.42383
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes released 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the next bars
H1 close below 1.41546 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 1.41890 bounce high and EMA20 negates the lower-high sequence
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled CAD catalyst
18:02 UTC
Downtrend within week range · RSI 43 · price 1.41729
Lower highs into range lows.
USDCAD peaked at 1.4238 midweek then rolled over, with oil-led CAD strength dragging the pair back toward range lows. Price sold off into the NY session, sweeping 1.4155 before recovering to 1.4173, and now sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) around 43. The 1.4150–1.4250 consolidation off the digest still frames the week.
Support: 1.41546, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200, 1.4225
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4155 range low opens 1.4130 range support
Reclaim of 1.4190 swing high negates the week decline
FOMC minutes just released (18:00 UTC) could shift the USD leg
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD-side catalyst
17:03 UTC
Pullback from weekly high, momentum down · RSI 43 · price 1.41713
Lower highs since Tuesday peak, testing week low.
USDCAD rallied from Monday's ~1.4186 open to a 1.4238 peak on Tuesday, then rolled over as the paired highs near 1.4232/1.4238 capped and price bled back below both EMAs. The NY session drop to 1.4155 tagged the week low before a bounce to 1.4195 faded, leaving price at 1.4171 — the Loonie failing to hold gains despite the firmer oil backdrop, with USD supported into the FOMC minutes.
Support: 1.41546, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.41959, 1.42383
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Close below 1.4155 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.4130 zone
Lower highs since Tuesday peak, range broken lower.
USD/CAD rolled over from Tuesday's 1.4238 peak and broke the week's 1.4200 range lower, printing 1.4155 before a bounce to 1.4196 was rejected back under EMA20. Price now sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling in the low-40s. The pair failed to capitalise on firmer oil this week, keeping the tone soft ahead of FOMC minutes.
Support: 1.41546, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.41959, 1.4200, 1.42383
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC (under 1h) could materially shift this read
Failure to reclaim 1.41959 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Hourly close below 1.41546 confirms continuation toward the 1.4130 support zone
USDCAD sold off through NY hours yesterday from the 1.4238 week high down to 1.4155, where buyers stepped in twice to spark a recovery back toward the EMA(20) near 1.4189. A series of lower highs off the week high has capped the tape, and price still sits just below the EMA(20), keeping the read corrective. FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC land within the next bars and can reset this structure.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4189, 1.4196, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4196 recent high reopens the 1.4238 week high
Loss of the 1.4155 week low confirms a lower low
FOMC minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Corrective decline from weekly high, bounce off lows · RSI 46 · price 1.41866
Lower highs off 1.4238 peak, recovery from 1.4155.
USDCAD rolled over from Tuesday's 1.4238 peak into a string of lower highs, grinding down to a 1.4155 low in the London session before recovering to 1.4187. Price now sits below EMA(50) but has reclaimed EMA(20) on the bounce, with RSI(14) lifting off its lows. The corrective move sits within this week's broader USD/CAD advance; FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC are the next catalyst.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4238
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.4200 (ema50) reopens the path to 1.4238
Failure to hold 1.4155 confirms a lower low toward the 1.4130 pivot
Lower highs since midweek top, testing this-week low.
USDCAD topped near the 1.4238 week high midweek then rolled over, with a sharp selloff into the latest sessions dragging the pair to a 1.4155 swing low as a firmer crude bid supported CAD. The bounce back stalled below the 1.4189 bounce high, leaving price under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) sitting below 50. Structure now shows lower highs off the top and a fragile hold above 1.4155.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4189, 1.4200, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4155 opens the path toward the 1.4130 pivot
Reclaim of 1.4200 would negate the current down leg
FOMC minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major CAD catalyst
Lower highs since Tuesday, holding above week low.
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4238 week high, with a sharp NY-session selloff Tuesday driving the pair to 1.4155 as crude firmed on Iran risk and dovish Fed comments capped the Dollar. Price is trading below EMA20 and EMA50 with descending highs intact; the bounce off 1.4155 stalled near 1.4188 and has faded back to 1.4175. RSI(14) recovered off the lows but sits sub-50, consistent with the softer tone.
Support: 1.41546, 1.4163
Resistance: 1.41875, 1.4200, 1.42083
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4188 bounce high negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.4155 week low confirms a fresh lower low
FOMC minutes today 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, off week high · RSI 43 · price 1.41721
Broke below week range, bouncing from lows.
USDCAD spent Monday-Tuesday grinding up to a 1.42383 week high before rolling over into the NY session, breaking down through the 1.4200-1.4238 consolidation as a crude bid supported CAD and the dollar was trimmed pre-FOMC Minutes. Price tagged a week low at 1.41546, snapped back to 1.41898 and is now fading again, holding below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling in the low 40s. The 1.4190 bounce high is the immediate cap for this recovery leg.
Support: 1.41546, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.41898, 1.4200, 1.42383
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.41898 negates the lower-high structure
Loss of 1.41546 opens the path toward the 1.4130 pivot low
14:02 UTC
Pullback from week high, momentum down · RSI 44 · price 1.41721
Rejected at 1.4238, breaking below week range.
USDCAD topped near 1.4238 mid-week and rolled over, with a sharp NY-session selloff into 1.41546 as the Iran-driven crude bid supported the Loonie and a soft NFP capped USD. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) after a bounce to 1.4190 failed, holding around 1.4172. RSI(14) cycling in the low-40s reflects the shift from this week's uptrend into a corrective phase.
Support: 1.41546, 1.4163
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200, 1.42383
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes today 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.41546 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.42000 negates the downside break
13:03 UTC
Pullback within week range · RSI 48 · price 1.41846
Lower high, sweep low then recovery.
USDCAD stalled below the 1.4225 week high after midweek gains, then sold off through the London session into 1.41546 before demand stepped in and drove a sharp recovery back to 1.4185. The pair sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) recovering toward the midline. Oil support and safe-haven USD demand have kept the pair boxed in the 1.4150-1.4250 consolidation this week.
Support: 1.41546, 1.41672
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4223, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Reclaim of EMA20 near 1.4195 would negate the pullback
Failure to hold 1.41546 sweep low confirms a lower-low
FOMC minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the week's dominant CAD catalyst
Lower highs off midweek peak, bounce off range floor.
USDCAD sold off from the midweek peak near 1.4238 into the NY session, bottoming at 1.41546 before a bounce back toward 1.4185; the move tracked crude firming on Iran headlines while the pair stays boxed in this week's 1.4150-1.4250 range. Price sits just under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI recovering off oversold. Supply has capped each attempt back toward 1.4225 since Tuesday.
Support: 1.41546, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4225, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4150 confirms a lower-low and range-floor break
Reclaim of EMA20 near 1.4190 needed to neutralise the downside pressure
FOMC minutes 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the dominant CAD catalyst into week-end
USDCAD rolled over from the week's 1.4238 high through the NY session, and the latest leg swept the 1.4160 swing lows down to 1.41546 before snapping back to 1.4190 in two bars. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI recovering off the lows, so the break lower was rejected but the pair still trades under this-week's supply. The bounce reflects a stretched USD and record CAD-short positioning flagged as squeeze-prone.
Support: 1.41546, 1.41625
Resistance: 1.41898, 1.4200, 1.42383
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4200 negates the downside break and reopens 1.4238
Failure to hold 1.41546 confirms a fresh lower-low
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the week's key CAD catalyst
FOMC Minutes today 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Rolled over, momentum down · RSI 33 · price 1.41692
Lower highs, broke weekly open.
USD/CAD rolled over from Tuesday's 1.4238 peak, slipping back below the 1.4214 weekly open and EMA20 before a sharp NY-session leg down to 1.4155. The safe-haven USD bid faded as the pair carved lower-highs; RSI(14) near 33 tracks the momentum shift. FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC is the next catalyst into today's session.
Support: 1.41546, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4214
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4200 would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.4155 confirms continuation of lower-lows
FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD lost the 1.4195-1.4240 consolidation that had held since Monday, selling off through the London session to a fresh 1.4155 low as safe-haven USD support faded. Price is trading well below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pressed toward oversold, and prior support at 1.4195 now caps as resistance. The week high at 1.4238 marked a clear rejection before the breakdown.
Support: 1.41546, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.42383
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4195 would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.4155 opens the path toward 1.4130 range support
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD spent most of the week boxed 1.4190–1.4238 before this NY-session leg lower snapped the range floor, with price now testing the 1.4150 swing low and the ~1.4158 fair-value area. The drop came despite a firm safe-haven USD, as CAD found a bid; the soft Ivey PMI earlier this week kept the undertone heavy but momentum has turned decisively down with RSI(14) into the low 30s. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 for the first time in days.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.4200, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4185 broken floor would neutralise the breakdown
A sustained break of 1.4150 swing low opens 1.4130 range support
FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD spent Monday–Wednesday boxed in the 1.4200–1.4238 zone before breaking down sharply through the NY session, printing fresh lows at 1.41546 as CAD firmed back toward Scotiabank's 1.4158 fair value. Price is well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 30, and each bounce has been sold into the 1.4178 shelf that previously acted as support.
Support: 1.41546, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4178, 1.4200, 1.42383
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the dominant CAD catalyst into stretched short positioning
Reclaim of 1.41780 would neutralise the breakdown
Loss of 1.41498 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
USD/CAD broke down through the 1.4200 round number during the London session, sliding from the week's 1.4238 high to a 1.4158 session low as the pair lost its multi-day 1.4200-1.4238 range. Price now trades below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pressing toward oversold after the impulsive drop. FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled test of the USD read.
Support: 1.4158, 1.4150, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4200 would negate the range break
Failure to hold 1.4150 support opens 1.4130 prior range
FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Rolling over, momentum down · RSI 32 · price 1.41636
Lower highs, breakdown below week open.
USDCAD stalled at the 1.4238 week high mid-week and has since carved lower highs, with a sharp late-session leg lower breaking back below the 1.4196 weekly open into 1.4158 fair value. Price now sits under both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pressed toward oversold, reflecting the renewed CAD softness after the Ivey PMI miss. The safe-haven USD bid keeps a floor under the pair around fair value for now.
Support: 1.4158, 1.4150, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4196, 1.4238
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC today — high impact, could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4150 confirms extension toward 1.4130 prior range
Reclaim of 1.4196 weekly open neutralises the breakdown
USDCAD held a tight 1.4200–1.4238 range through most of the week before breaking lower into the London session this morning, slicing the 1.4200 psych floor and sliding to 1.4160 near Scotiabank's 1.4158 fair value. Price now trades below EMA(20) and EMA(50) for the first time this week with RSI(14) pushing into oversold on safe-haven USD flows ahead of the FOMC Minutes. The 1.42200 area capped every attempt higher this week and remains the dominant supply zone.
Support: 1.41612, 1.4158, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4220, 1.42383
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4200 negates the range breakdown
Failure to hold 1.4158 fair value opens 1.4130 range support
FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift USD tone
USDCAD topped twice near 1.4238 into the NY session and has since rolled over, sliding through the mid-week 1.4200 range floor with RSI(14) pressing toward oversold. Price now sits at 1.41635, below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with the safe-haven USD bid failing to hold the highs as the week's consolidation broke lower. Momentum has been one-directional over the last several hours, leaving 1.4150 as the next demand shelf to watch.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4130, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42383
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.4150 opens the path toward 1.4130 range support
H1 close back above 1.4200 negates the range break
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Rolling over from week high · RSI 35 · price 1.41789
Lower highs, breaking below EMAs.
USDCAD opened this week near 1.4186 and pushed to a 1.4238 week high through Tuesday's NY session before rolling over. Price has since slid back under EMA20 with RSI(14) sub-40, printing a fresh session low at 1.4173. The soft-CAD, firm-USD backdrop capped the advance, but the pullback is now testing the lower edge of the week's range.
Support: 1.4173, 1.4150, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4173 session low opens the 1.4150 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.4205 ema20 negates the rollover
FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has slid off the 1.4238 week high through the NY session and into today, losing EMio(20) and EMA(50) as it presses the 1.4150 range floor. RSI(14) cycling into the mid-30s confirms the fade in momentum after two sessions of lower highs. The 1.4150-1.4250 range has framed all week; price now sits at its lower edge with the session low at 1.41729 the immediate marker.
Support: 1.41729, 1.4150, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.42383, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4150 confirms a range break lower toward 1.4130
Reclaim of 1.4225 negates the lower-highs sequence
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC the bigger CAD catalyst
06:02 UTC
Pullback, momentum down · RSI 41 · price 1.41841
Lower highs off week high, testing swing low.
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4238 week high printed in the NY session and has traded a series of lower highs since, slipping back under both EMA20 and EMA50 as RSI(14) cooled toward 40. Price is now pressing the 1.4182 swing low with the pair holding inside its broader 1.4150-1.4250 weekly band. The soft-CAD tone persists despite a record trade surplus, with USD steady near DXY 101.00 into today's FOMC Minutes.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42383
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4200 reopens the 1.4238 week high
Loss of 1.4182 confirms a lower low toward the 1.4150 week low
FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD catalyst
06:02 UTC
Range, rolling over from highs · RSI 41 · price 1.41841
Pullback from week high, lower highs forming.
USDCAD rolled over from the week's 1.42383 high through the last NY session and now sits at 1.4184, below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling down near 40. The 1.4150-1.4238 range that has held all week remains intact, with supply capping at 1.4228/1.4238 and demand still to be tested toward the 1.4159 week low. CAD stayed soft into the pending Friday jobs report despite a record trade surplus.
Support: 1.4184, 1.4159, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4228, 1.42383
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.4159 confirms a lower low and pressures the range base
Reclaim of 1.4205 EMA20 re-opens the 1.4238 week high
FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has held a 1.4150-1.4250 range all week, with CAD soft despite a record trade surplus as Fed/BoC divergence keeps the dollar firm. This week's rally to 1.4238 was sold back through the NY session, and price has retraced most of that move to sit just under EMA(20) near 1.4197. RSI(14) in the mid-40s with no divergence; drift is corrective rather than impulsive.
Support: 1.4186, 1.4150, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4197, 1.4238, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4238 reopens the range top at 1.4250
Loss of 1.4186 week low exposes the 1.4150 floor
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD opened the week near 1.4186 and climbed to a 1.4238 week high by midweek before rolling back toward the open, with the pair now slipping below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) as RSI(14) drifts into the low 40s. The 1.4238/1.4250 zone capped the advance and price is again mid-range, the loonie staying soft despite a record trade surplus. The 1.4150-1.4250 band the market has held all week remains intact.
Support: 1.4186, 1.4150, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.4250, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4186 week open exposes the 1.4150 range floor
Reclaim of 1.4225 puts the 1.4250 range top back in play
FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC ahead
04:02 UTC
Range, momentum fading · RSI 44 · price 1.41971
Rangebound below week high, pulling back.
USDCAD has held the 1.4150-1.4250 range all week, with USD firm on hawkish Fed talk and Hormuz safe-haven demand while a soft CAD shrugged off a record trade surplus. Price pushed to a 1.4238 week high midweek then rejected, and is now back below EMA(20) with RSI(14) rolling toward the low 40s. The weekend gap around 1.4200 was filled and price is drifting back to the 1.4186 day-low area.
Support: 1.4186, 1.4183, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.4238, 1.4200
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4183 confirms a lower-low toward 1.4150
Reclaim of 1.4225 reopens the 1.4238 week high
04:02 UTC
Range, rolling over from weekly high · RSI 43 · price 1.41971
Lower highs since 1.4238, back below EMAs.
USDCAD pushed to the weekly high at 1.4238 into Tuesday's NY session before rejecting and grinding back to 1.4197, now sitting just under EMA20/EMA50. Price has printed successive lower highs off 1.4238 and RSI has eased to the low-40s, with 1.4188 the swing low holding underneath. The pair remains inside this week's 1.4150-1.4250 range as USD stays firm on Hormuz safe-haven demand.
Support: 1.41862, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.42383
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes today 18:00 UTC (HIGH) could shift this read
H1 close below 1.4188 confirms a lower low and opens 1.4150
Reclaim of 1.4220 negates the lower-high sequence
03:02 UTC
Range-bound, edging lower off week high · RSI 42 · price 1.41953
Consolidation under 1.4238 week high.
USDCAD stalled after tagging the 1.4238 week high in Tuesday's NY session and has drifted back toward the low end of a 1.4188–1.4238 consolidation, with the dollar holding firm on hawkish-Fed pricing and Hormuz safe-haven flows. Price slipped below EMA20 and EMA50 into the latest bars and RSI has eased into the low-40s as the pivot at 1.4213 caps recovery attempts. The stronger CAD trade surplus was ignored; the pair remains range-driven.
Support: 1.4188, 1.4159
Resistance: 1.4213, 1.4225, 1.42383
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes today 18:00 UTC is the nearest high-impact driver and could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4188 swing low would confirm a lower-low and stretch toward 1.4159
Reclaim of the 1.4213 pivot puts 1.4225 prior high back in play
Consolidation below weekly high, drifting to pivot.
USDCAD extended its week-long grind higher into Tuesday's NY session, tagging 1.4238 before stalling as USD held a hawkish-Fed premium into Wednesday's FOMC minutes. Since that peak the pair has posted lower highs and slipped back below EMA(20), now testing the 1.4188 breakout pivot with RSI(14) cooling into the low-40s. The 1.4150–1.4238 range still frames this week's action.
Support: 1.4188, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4238, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4188 exposes the 1.4150 week low
Reclaim of 1.4238 reopens the path to 1.4250
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Range-bound, no clear trend · RSI 48 · price 1.42015
Consolidation between 1.4150 and 1.4250.
USDCAD has coiled inside a 1.4150–1.4250 range all week, printing a week high at 1.42383 on Tuesday before fading back through EMA(20) to hover near 1.4201. The Loonie failed to capitalise on a firmer trade surplus and higher oil, keeping the pair pinned mid-range with RSI(14) tracking near 48. Today's FOMC minutes (18:00 UTC) are the pivot for the next directional leg.
Support: 1.41862, 1.41876, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.42383, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.42383 opens the path to the 1.4250 range top
Loss of the 1.4188 swing low exposes 1.4150 range low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this range read
USDCAD has churned inside a 1.4150–1.4250 range all week, with the 1.42383 week high rejected mid-week and price now hovering back near 1.4200 below both EMAs. CAD failed to capitalise on a stronger trade surplus and firmer oil, keeping the pair capped, while the pullback from the high has RSI(14) resetting to the mid-40s. Price is coiling just under the EMA20 into the Asia session.
Support: 1.4186, 1.4150, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.42383, 1.4250
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes today 18:00 UTC could materially shift this range read
H1 close above 1.4250 range top opens the breakout path
Failure to hold 1.4150 range low exposes 1.4130 support
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the key CAD catalyst this week
01:03 UTC
Range-bound, two-way · RSI 47 · price 1.4200
Consolidation between 1.4186 and 1.4238.
USD/CAD has consolidated in a 1.4186–1.4238 band since Monday's reopen, sitting back at the 1.4200 psych level after fading from Tuesday's 1.4238 week high. RSI(14) is mid-range near 47 with price hugging EMA(20), consistent with the two-way USD tone; a stronger Canadian trade surplus failed to lift CAD as the dollar stayed firm. Momentum is neutral inside the week's range.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4186, 1.4149
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4238
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4186 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.4149
H1 close above 1.4238 breaks the week's range top
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the week's key CAD catalyst
01:03 UTC
Range-bound, no clear momentum · RSI 47 · price 1.4200
Consolidation between 1.4185 and 1.4238.
USDCAD climbed off Monday's open toward 1.4238 through the NY session but the 1.4238/1.4250 zone capped the advance twice, and price has since faded back to the mid-range near EMA20 around 1.4200. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 after cycling off the pullback low at 1.4185; the loonie shrugged off a stronger trade surplus as USD stayed bid. Structure remains a two-sided consolidation with the week's range still intact.
Support: 1.4185, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4238, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4238 opens the path toward the 1.4250 psych level
Failure to hold 1.4185 confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.4150
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
USDCAD ran off the mid-1.41s early week and stalled at 1.4238 into the NY session before fading back to consolidate the 1.4188–1.4238 range. The stronger Canadian trade surplus and firmer oil were ignored, with USD holding bid on Fed pricing; RSI(14) sits mid-range near 49 as price hovers around the EMA20. Two-way trade inside the range with no clean directional resolution yet.
Support: 1.4188, 1.4159, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4238, 1.4226
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the near-term driver for this pair
USDCAD is consolidating around 1.4205 after this week's push to 1.4238 was rejected, unwinding into a tight 1.4186–1.4226 range. Price sits on the EMA20 with RSI(14) hovering near 50, the loonie shrugging off a stronger trade surplus as USD holds firm into the FOMC minutes. The recovery off the 1.4186 swing low has stalled just under the mid-range.
Support: 1.41862, 1.4150, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.42383, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.42383 reopens the path toward 1.4250
Failure to hold 1.41862 confirms a lower low into 1.4150
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read