Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday's London low; small weekend gap down.
USDCAD turned up from Thursday's London low at 1.3942. It ground higher through Friday's London session, then broke out in NY when US payrolls beat (165K) and Canada lost 4.7K jobs, lifting the pair to a week high at 1.4137. Sunday's open gapped about 20 pips below the 1.4129 prior close, but price is holding above the weekly open at 1.4110. EMA(20) near 1.4091 lines up with the higher-low trendline and the 23.6% retracement of the Thu-Fri impulse. RSI(14) is near 72, stretched but with no divergence yet.
Support: 1.41097, 1.4091, 1.40519
Resistance: 1.41293, 1.41371
What it said to watch
Filling the weekend gap to the 1.4129 prior close, then a close above the 1.4137 week high, would extend the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.4110 puts the 1.4090 confluence of ema20, the higher-low trendline and the Thu-Fri impulse fib in play
An H1 close below the 1.4052 pre-NFP low would unwind most of Friday's jobs breakout
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Monday, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC is the main CAD-side risk to the post-jobs structure
22:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended after jobs spike · RSI 72 · price 1.41293
Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday's 1.3942 swing low.
Wednesday's 1.3929 low held, and the rally began from Thursday's 1.3942 swing low. Price then stepped up through London and NY sessions along a line of higher lows. The 13:30 UTC jobs divergence (US NFP 165K vs 65K, Canada -4.7K) produced a 44-pip H1 bar off the 1.4052 pre-nfp low. Price held above the 1.4090 post-nfp low and closed the NY session just under the 1.4137 week high. RSI(14) is near 72 and price sits well above EMA(20) and EMA(50), so the move is stretched relative to its recent pullbacks.
Support: 1.4090, 1.4052, 1.4033
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4090 post-nfp low would mark the first lower low since the jobs breakout
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.4052 pre-nfp low would expose the 50% fib of the rally near 1.4033
Sustained trade above the 1.4137 week high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed speakers Monday add risk
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended after jobs spike · RSI 73 · price 1.41293
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's low.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows since Wednesday's post-election low at 1.3929. It reclaimed 1.40 in Thursday's London-NY session and stair-stepped higher through Friday's Asian and London hours. At the NY open, the jobs divergence (US NFP 165K vs Canada -4.7K) produced a 45-pip impulse bar off the 1.4052 pre-NFP low. The 1.4090 NFP pullback low then held, and price ground up to a 1.4137 week high into the close, extending the week rally. RSI(14) is near 73, with price well above EMA(20) and EMA(50); the week high and the 1.4150 round number are the nearest overhead references.
Support: 1.4090, 1.40519
Resistance: 1.41371, 1.4150
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.4090 NFP pullback low, and a break of the higher-lows line, would signal the post-jobs momentum fading
Failure to hold the 1.4052 pre-NFP low, near the 38.2% retrace of the week rally, would put the jobs-driven breakout in doubt
A sustained hold above the 1.4137 week high opens the 1.4150 round number
Fed speakers (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) on Mon, US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and the BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Weekend oil and US-Iran headlines carry gap risk into the Asia session open
20:19 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after jobs spike · RSI 74 · price 1.41293
Higher lows since Thursday; post-data breakout holding above 1.4090.
USD/CAD reversed Wednesday's dip to the week low at 1.3929, set rising lows from Thursday's NY session and climbed through Friday's Asia and London sessions. The US/Canada jobs divergence (NFP 165K vs Canada -4.7K) then added about 45 pips through 1.4100, and price has since held above the nfp low at 1.4090, close to the 23.6% retracement of the week impulse. RSI(14) near 74 is overbought, price sits well above EMA(20) and EMA(50), and the week high at 1.4137 capped the late NY session.
Support: 1.4090, 1.4052, 1.4024
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the nfp low at 1.4090 would also break the rising lows line and put the pre-data low at 1.4052 in play
Failure to hold the pre-data low at 1.4052 exposes the thu high at 1.4024 and a deeper retracement of the week impulse
A sustained break of the week high at 1.4137 opens the path to the round number at 1.4200
Fed speakers on Monday, then US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) and the BoC Summary of Deliberations (Tue 18:30 UTC), could materially shift this read
Overbought RSI(14) unwinding without a break of 1.4090 would point to consolidation rather than reversal
19:25 UTC
Uptrend, extended after Friday's jobs spike · RSI 74 · price 1.41293
Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday's Asia-session low at 1.3942.
USD/CAD reversed Wednesday's post-midterm slide to 1.3929. It turned higher from the NY session Thursday and ground up through Asia and London on Friday before the 13:30 UTC jobs double-hit lifted it about 45 pips in one bar: US NFP at 165K against Canada's -4.7K. NY hours then cleared the nfp spike hi at 1.4126 and printed a week high at 1.4137, with late-session lows holding 1.4121 and the week closing near 1.4129. RSI(14) at around 74 is overbought, and price sits well above EMA(20), which is rising through the 1.4090 post-nfp low area.
Support: 1.4121, 1.4090, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the nfp spike hi at 1.4121 opens a test of the 1.4090 post-nfp low and EMA(20)
An H1 close below the rising higher-low trendline and the 1.4052 pre-nfp low (near the 38.2% fib) would mark a deeper retracement of the week's rally
A close above the 1.4137 week high puts the 1.4150 round number in play
Weekend oil and US-Iran headlines could gap the Monday open
Fed speakers Monday, then Waller and US CPI Tuesday (13:30 UTC) and the BoC Summary of Deliberations (18:30 UTC), could materially shift this read