USDCAD has consolidated in the upper half of this week's 1.3865–1.3969 range since Monday's open, with today's BoC hold at 2.25% leaving CAD heavy. Price is holding just above the EMA(20) near 1.3937 after a dip to 1.3899 was bought back into the NY session. The 1.3969 YTD high has capped the advance and remains the pivot.
Support: 1.3937, 1.3900, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.3969, 1.3960
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3969 invalidates the range-top read and opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold the 1.3900 weekly open exposes the 1.3865 week low
US PPI Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US-CA yield spreads
USDCAD rallied off Monday's 1.3865 low to a fresh 1.39688 YTD high, the move firming after a dovish BoC hold at 2.25% and sticky US CPI kept the spread story USD-favourable. Since the peak price has chopped in the upper-1.39s, with the 1.3969 ceiling capping and demand stepping in near 1.3900 after the sharp dip to 1.38989. RSI(14) has reset to mid-range as price holds above EMA(20).
Support: 1.3900, 1.38989, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.39688, 1.3958
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.39688 opens the path toward the 1.4140 Nov-2025 high
Failure to hold 1.3900 exposes the 1.38649 week low
US PPI Jun-11 12:30 UTC could shift US-CAD spreads and this read
USDCAD has stalled under the 1.3969 YTD high after rejection there, with today's in-line BoC hold keeping CAD heavy and the pair pinned near six-month highs. Price is ranging 1.3920–1.3960 above EMA20 with RSI mid-range following the bounce off the 1.3900 area. The 1.3960 swing high continues to cap upside attempts.
Support: 1.3920, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3960, 1.3969
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3969 opens the path toward 1.4140 (Nov 2025 high)
Failure to hold 1.3900 confirms a deeper pullback
US PPI Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the USD-CAD yield-spread read
USDCAD has spent the week grinding sideways just under the 1.3969 YTD high, with the BoC hold at 2.25% keeping CAD heavy but no fresh fuel to break the ceiling. Price recovered off the early-week 1.3865 dip and is now hugging EMA20 around 1.3940 with RSI(14) flat near 53. The 1.3960/1.3969 zone has capped repeated attempts; the range top is still respected.
Support: 1.3920, 1.3900, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.3960, 1.3969
What it said to watch
An H1 close above 1.3969 opens the path toward the 1.4140 November high
Loss of 1.3900 round number would confirm a deeper pullback toward 1.3865 swing low
US PPI Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift US-Canada spreads and this read
21:03 UTC
Rangebound near YTD highs · RSI 52 · price 1.39422
Consolidation between 1.3865 and 1.3969.
USDCAD has spent the week churning between the 1.38649 floor and the 1.39688 YTD high, with the dominant leg up coming Monday into Tuesday's NY session before stalling at the ceiling. BoC's on-hold 2.25% decision today landed as priced and kept CAD heavy, leaving price coiled around EMA(20) near 1.3942 with RSI(14) cycling around the 50 line. Two probes of the 1.3969 area have been capped, and price now sits mid-range after a shallow pullback.
Support: 1.39117, 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.39688
What it said to watch
Clean H1 close above 1.39688 opens the path toward the 1.4140 Nov-2025 high
Failure to hold 1.39117 swing low shifts the read back toward the 1.3865 week low
US PPI Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD-CAD yield spreads
USD/CAD has spent the week ranging between the 1.3865 week low and the 1.3969 YTD high, with the BoC hold at 2.25% — fully priced — keeping CAD heavy and the pair pinned near the top of the range. Price is back above EMA20 after dipping to 1.3899 in the NY session yesterday, but two pushes toward 1.3969 have been capped. RSI(14) is cycling around the midpoint, reflecting the lack of directional resolution.
Support: 1.3920, 1.3900, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.3969
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3969 opens the path toward the 1.4140 November high
Failure to hold 1.3900 would shift the read back toward the 1.3865 week low
US PPI Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US-Canada spreads
Consolidation under 1.3969, holding above session low.
USD/CAD has spent the week grinding in a tight band below the 1.3969 YTD high, with the BoC hold at 2.25% keeping CAD heavy but failing to drive a fresh break. Price dipped to the 1.38989 session low during NY hours yesterday before reclaiming the EMA20, and now sits mid-range near 1.3945 with RSI cycling around 53. The 1.39533 weekly high and the 1.3969 ceiling have capped each push higher.
Support: 1.3937, 1.38989
Resistance: 1.3969, 1.39533
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.3969 ytd high opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold the 1.38989 session low confirms a lower low
US PPI Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this range read
USDCAD has spent the week pinned below the 1.3969 YTD high, with the BoC hold at 2.25% and in-line US CPI giving no fresh fuel for a breakout. A sharp NY-session flush to 1.38989 was bought back, and price has since carved higher lows back toward 1.3945. The 1.3969 ceiling has capped every attempt this week — range top still intact.
Support: 1.38989, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.3969, 1.3960
What it said to watch
Clean H1 close above 1.3969 opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.38989 reopens the week low at 1.3865
US PPI Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US-CA spreads
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 47 · price 1.39373
Range capped below YTD high.
USDCAD is consolidating just under the 1.3969 YTD high after the BoC held at 2.25% as fully priced, leaving CAD heavy. The 1.3969 ceiling capped Tuesday's rally and a sharp NY-session drop yesterday found support around 1.3915 before price recovered toward EMA(20). Range-bound between roughly 1.3915 and 1.3969 with RSI mid-range and momentum flat into PPI.
Support: 1.39154, 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.39688, 1.39607
What it said to watch
Clean H1 close above the 1.3969 ytd high opens the path toward 1.4140
Loss of the 1.3915 ny low exposes the 1.3900 psych level and the 1.3865 week low
US PPI Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read via USD-CAD yield spreads
19:02 UTC
Range near YTD high, momentum easing · RSI 47 · price 1.39373
Capped below 1.3969, holding above 1.3915.
USD/CAD has spent the week pinned beneath the 1.3969 YTD high, which capped attempts on Monday and Tuesday's NY hours; today's in-line BoC hold kept CAD heavy but failed to extend the topside. Price slipped back below the H1 EMA20 (~1.3940) and is now consolidating around 1.3937 after a dip to the 1.39000 area was bought back. RSI(14) is mid-range near 47, reflecting stalled momentum rather than a clear turn.
Support: 1.3915, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3940, 1.3956, 1.3969
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.3969 opens the path toward the 1.4140 region
Failure to hold 1.3915 day low exposes the 1.3900 psych level
US PPI Thu 12:30 GMT could re-set USD-CAD spread and break this range
Ranging below 1.3969 after rejection, lower highs forming.
This week opened near 1.3930 and pushed to a fresh YTD high of 1.3969 into Tuesday's NY session before fading; the BoC held at 2.25% and US CPI landed in line, leaving no fresh directional fuel. Price now sits below EMA(20) with RSI(14) easing into the mid-40s, the 1.39154 swing low marking the base of the current range. Lower highs since the 1.3969 print have capped attempts back toward the top.
Support: 1.39154, 1.38989, 1.3875
Resistance: 1.39688
What it said to watch
Clean break above 1.39688 opens the path to 1.4140 (Nov high)
Failure to hold 1.39154 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.38989
US PPI Thu 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read via US-CA spreads
USDCAD pushed to a fresh week high at 1.39688 into the NY session yesterday before fading, and a sharp leg lower to 1.38989 during today's BoC hold and in-line US CPI knocked price back below EMA(20). The pair has since clawed back to 1.39283, sitting mid-range with RSI(14) recovering off the low. The 1.39530 prior high has capped this week's attempts while 1.39000 has so far held on the dip.
Support: 1.3915, 1.3900, 1.3868
Resistance: 1.3953, 1.39688
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.39688 opens the path toward the 1.4140 November high
Failure to hold 1.39000 confirms a deeper pullback toward 1.38680
US PPI Thu 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pullback off YTD high · RSI 45 · price 1.39306
USDCAD tagged a fresh YTD high at 1.3969 early in the week before easing back, and has consolidated around 1.393 since, printing lower highs into NY hours. A sharp dip to 1.3899 was quickly recovered, leaving price below EMA20 with RSI mid-40s. The BoC held at 2.25% as expected, offering no fresh CAD direction.
Support: 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3940, 1.39688
What it said to watch
A clean break above the 1.3969 ytd high opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold the 1.3900 psych level confirms a deeper pullback
US PPI Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD tagged a fresh YTD high at 1.39688 before fading, with the BoC's in-line hold at 2.25% offering little fresh CAD direction. Price has slipped back under EMA20 and is consolidating around 1.3930 after a sharp NY-session drop to 1.38989; RSI(14) sits near 44, off its highs. The 1.3969 cap has held twice this week, leaving the topside attempts unconfirmed.
Support: 1.39154, 1.38989, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.39688
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.39688 opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.39154 exposes the 1.38989 swing low
US PPI Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift USD direction
USDCAD ground to a fresh YTD/six-month high at 1.3969 through midweek on broad CAD weakness, with the loonie failing to capitalise on strong jobs and the in-line BoC hold at 2.25% today. Price has since rolled over, slipping back below EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling under 50, and the NY session saw a sharp dip to the 1.3900 round number before a recovery into 1.3930. Rejection at 1.3969 has capped the advance for now.
Support: 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3943, 1.3969
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.3943 EMA20 re-engages the 1.3969 week high
Loss of 1.3900 psych confirms a deeper pullback toward 1.38649 week low
US PPI Thu 12:30 GMT is a cross-driver that could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 43 · price 1.39298
Range below week high, lower highs forming.
USDCAD spent the week pinned near YTD highs, with the 1.3969 week high and the 1.3953 shelf capping repeated attempts as the fully-priced BoC hold and in-line US CPI gave little fresh impetus. Price slipped through EMA(20)/EMA(50) into the NY session, printing a 1.38989 low before recovering toward 1.3930. RSI(14) has cycled down into the low 40s as the late-week lower highs build.
Support: 1.3900, 1.38989, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3953, 1.39688
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.3900 round number confirms a lower low and breaks the week's range floor
Reclaim of 1.3953 prior high reopens the 1.3969 week high
US PPI Thu 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back from highs · RSI 43 · price 1.39277
Range near YTD highs after rejection.
USDCAD repeatedly capped at the 1.3969 YTD high this week and has rolled back below EMA(20), printing a sharp drop into the NY session to 1.38989 before recovering to 1.39277. The BoC hold at 2.25% and in-line US CPI did little to extend the upside, leaving price consolidating off the highs with RSI(14) cooling toward the mid-40s. The 1.3900 psych/9-day-EMA zone is the first demand area being tested below.
Support: 1.3900, 1.38989, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3969, 1.3953, 1.3940
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.3900 confirms a lower-low and breaks the week's rising support
Reclaim of 1.3953 range top reopens the 1.3969 ytd high
US PPI Thursday 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read via USD-side volatility
15:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back from YTD highs · RSI 41 · price 1.39277
Range top capped, rejection into pullback.
USDCAD spent the week pinned near two-month/YTD highs, with 1.3969 capping two pushes after the BoC held at 2.25% and US CPI printed in line. The latest NY session saw a sharp rejection back below the EMA(20), dropping price to 1.3899 before the close near 1.3928. RSI(14) has rolled over to the low 40s as the pullback unwinds the stretched move.
Support: 1.3900, 1.38675
Resistance: 1.3945, 1.39688
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.3900 confirms a lower-low and breaks the week's higher-low structure
Reclaim of the 1.3945 EMA20 puts the 1.3969 YTD high back in play
US PPI Thu 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, rolling over · RSI 41 · price 1.39165
Rejection at YTD high, pulling back from week high.
USDCAD climbed off Tuesday's 1.38649 low to a YTD high of 1.39688, but the advance stalled and price has rolled back below EMA20, with the latest bar selling sharply to 1.39154 around the in-line US CPI and the fully-priced BoC hold. Price now sits on the 50% retracement of the week's impulse near 1.39168, with the round 1.3900 as the next reference below. RSI(14) has cooled toward 41 as the rejection from YTD-high resistance plays out.
Support: 1.3900, 1.38938, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3944, 1.39688
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above EMA20 1.3944 would negate the rollover and re-expose the 1.39688 ytd high
Sustained break below 1.3900 round number opens the path toward the 1.38649 week low
US PPI Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 40 · price 1.39165
Rally to YTD high, sharp pullback off the top.
USDCAD ground up to a YTD high at 1.39688 through midweek and held above EMA20 during the consolidation near the highs, with CAD pinned weak after the BoC's in-line 2.25% hold and steady USD on the in-line US CPI. The latest NY-session bar dropped sharply through EMA20 to 1.3917, pulling RSI back from overbought toward 40 as the rejection off the top cooled momentum. Price now sits below both the EMA20 and EMA50 for the first time this week.
Support: 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3945, 1.39688
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.3945 EMA20 would reassert the week's uptrend
Loss of 1.3900 psych opens the 1.38649 week low
US PPI tomorrow (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
USDCAD pushed to a fresh YTD high near 1.39688 yesterday before easing back to 1.3937, with the 1.3960-1.3969 ceiling rejecting two attempts this week. Price now sits below EMA(20) as RSI(14) cooled into the mid-40s, a corrective drift within the broader uptrend driven by CAD's negative spreads and a firm safe-haven USD. The BoC decision and US CPI are landing this session — the dominant catalysts before the next leg.
Support: 1.39186, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.39688, 1.39607
What it said to watch
BoC statement (13:45 UTC) and US CPI landing now — both could materially shift this read in the next bars
H1 close above 1.39688 opens fresh YTD highs
Failure to hold 1.39186 confirms a deeper pullback toward 1.3900
USDCAD pushed to a fresh YTD high near 1.3969 mid-week before easing back into a consolidation, with the pair now ticking just under EMA(20) into the BoC decision and US CPI. The week's impulse off 1.38649 has retraced toward the 50% area around 1.3917, with 1.39186 marking the latest swing low and supply capping at successive lower highs below the 1.3969 ceiling. RSI(14) is mid-range near 46, reflecting the loss of upside momentum after the run to the YTD high.
Support: 1.39186, 1.38675
Resistance: 1.3969
What it said to watch
BoC statement 13:45 UTC + US CPI same session are the dominant catalysts — could materially shift this read
Clean H1 close above 1.3969 opens fresh year highs
Loss of 1.39186 swing low confirms deeper retracement toward 1.38675
USDCAD pushed to a fresh YTD high near 1.3969 in the NY session before fading to 1.3933, with price now slipping back under EMA20 and RSI(14) cooling toward 41. The week has been a grind higher off Tuesday's 1.3865 low, but the rejection at 1.3969 has capped the advance and the last several bars have carved lower highs. US May CPI (12:30 UTC) and the BoC decision (13:45 UTC) land inside the next bar and dominate the near-term read.
Support: 1.39193, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3946, 1.39688
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC and BoC at 13:45 UTC are imminent dual catalysts that override this structure
A close back above EMA20 (1.3946) re-engages the move toward the 1.3969 ytd high
Failure to hold 1.39193 swing low confirms a lower low and deeper pullback toward 1.3900
12:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling near YTD high · RSI 42 · price 1.39327
Easing back below EMA20 after rejection at 1.3969.
USDCAD pushed to a fresh YTD high near 1.3969 during the NY session yesterday before being rejected, easing back below EMA20 to 1.3933 with RSI(14) cycling down toward 40. The week's uptrend off Monday's 1.3865 low remains intact but the pullback has stalled the advance into the BoC decision and concurrent US CPI. Demand has so far held around the 1.3920 swing low.
Support: 1.3920, 1.3886, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.3946, 1.3958, 1.3969
What it said to watch
BoC decision 13:45 UTC and US CPI today are dual catalysts that could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.3920 swing low confirms a lower-low and deeper retrace
A close back above 1.3969 ytd high reopens the upside continuation
USDCAD rallied off Monday's 1.38649 low through midweek but has stalled into a tight range below the 1.39610 2mo high, which capped two attempts and drove the loonie's weakest-G10 theme into the BoC. Price has slipped back under EMA20 in the NY pullback with RSI cooling toward 41, sitting just above the 1.39193 swing low. The week's structure is consolidation, not breakdown — the YTD ceiling remains the pivot.
Support: 1.39193, 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3961, 1.39688
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC and BoC decision at 13:45 UTC could materially reset this read within the next bars
H1 close above 1.39610 confirms continuation toward the 1.39688 week high
Close below 1.39193 swing low marks a lower-low and opens 1.39000
USDCAD has consolidated below the 1.3961 ytd high all week, with the 1.39688 week high marking the top of the range after rejection there midweek. Price has slipped back under EMA20 and EMA50 in a sequence of lower highs from 1.3956, now testing toward the 1.3919 prior low into the BoC decision and US CPI. The loonie stayed pinned near two-month lows as the market waits on both catalysts.
Support: 1.39193, 1.38869
Resistance: 1.39566, 1.3961, 1.39688
What it said to watch
US CPI 12:30 UTC and BoC decision 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read within the next two bars
H1 close back above 1.39566 reopens the 1.3961 ytd high and the 1.39688 week high
Loss of 1.39193 prior low confirms a lower-low toward 1.3886 swing low
10:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 39 · price 1.39258
Lower highs off 1.3968, retracing the week's leg up.
USDCAD rallied through the NY session yesterday into the 1.3961 YTD ceiling but stalled short of it, and price has since rolled over below EMA(20) with RSI(14) slipping under 40. The week's impulse from 1.3865 to 1.3968 is now retracing, with current trade near the 38.2% area; the loonie is crowded short into the BoC hold, so today's decision is the pivot. Resistance at 1.3961 capped two attempts and remains the key test for any fresh upside break.
Support: 1.39186, 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3961
What it said to watch
BoC decision 13:45 UTC and US CPI 12:30 UTC — both imminent and could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.3919 swing low confirms a deeper pullback toward 1.3900
Reclaim and H1 close above 1.3961 reopens the path to the 1.3968 week high
USDCAD climbed off the 1.3865 base since Monday and tested the 1.3969 week high, but stalled under the 1.3961 YTD pivot as the loonie clawed back support on firmer oil. Price has since rolled over below the EMA20 (~1.3947) with RSI(14) cooling into the low 40s, leaving the move consolidating into the BoC decision. The 1.3919 swing low is the first structural test of the pullback.
Support: 1.3919, 1.3875
Resistance: 1.3947, 1.3961, 1.3969
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision today 13:45 UTC and presser 14:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
Close above 1.3961 reopens the path to the 1.3969 week high and confirms the uptrend
Failure to hold 1.3919 confirms a lower-low and deepens the pullback toward 1.3875
Higher highs into week peak, now retracing below EMA20.
USDCAD ran to a fresh two-month high near 1.3969 in Tuesday's NY session before fading to 1.3933, slipping below EMA20 as the move stalled just shy of the 1.3961 YTD ceiling. The week's structure is still higher lows off the 1.3867 base, but the recent drift lower has RSI back near 40. BoC rate decision at 13:45 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC are the dominant catalysts ahead.
Support: 1.3919, 1.3900, 1.38675
Resistance: 1.3961, 1.39688
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.3961 confirms the uptrend continuation
Failure to hold 1.3919 opens the 1.3900 round number
BoC decision 13:45 UTC and US CPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Consolidating below week ceiling after impulse off the low.
USDCAD rallied from the week low near 1.3865 into the 1.3960-1.3969 ceiling through the NY session, then stalled and drifted back to 1.3938 as easing safe-haven demand softened the USD. Price now sits below EMA20 (~1.3947) with RSI cooling toward 42, holding above the 1.3919 swing low. The 1.3960 ytd ceiling has capped attempts, keeping price boxed in the upper 1.39s.
Support: 1.39193, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3947, 1.3960, 1.39688
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC and BoC decision at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.3960 ytd ceiling opens the path back to the 1.3969 week high
Loss of 1.3919 swing low confirms a deeper pullback toward the week low
Consolidation under 1.3966 after recovery off week low.
USDCAD opened the week near 1.3900, sold off to the 1.3867 week low, then ran through the NY session into the 1.3960-1.3969 YTD ceiling where two attempts stalled. Price has since drifted back into mid-range and now sits just below EMA20, with RSI(14) cooling toward 44 as the loonie steadies ahead of the BoC decision. The 1.3960 area has repeatedly absorbed pushes higher this week.
Support: 1.3919, 1.3867
Resistance: 1.3960, 1.3969
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.3966 ytd ceiling opens the path to fresh highs
BoC statement at 13:45 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.3919 swing low exposes the 1.3867 week low
Consolidating below the week's high after impulse.
USDCAD climbed from Monday's 1.3865 week low to test the 1.3966 ytd ceiling mid-week, with CAD pressured by the recession narrative and a firm USD into CPI. Price has since coiled in the upper 1.394s, slipping just under the EMA20 around 1.3949 as RSI cools toward neutral. The 1.3966 area has capped the advance and the swing low at 1.3920 marks the base of the consolidation.
Support: 1.3920, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.3949, 1.3966
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC and the BoC decision at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 1.3966 ytd ceiling opens the path higher
Failure to hold 1.3920 swing low confirms a deeper pullback
Higher lows into a multi-day high, now consolidating.
USDCAD ground higher all week off the 1.3868 low, lifting through the NY session to print a 1.3969 two-month high before stalling. Price has since rotated back into a 1.3940-1.3960 band, slipping under EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling toward 48 as the 1.3960-1.3966 ceiling caps attempts. BoC at 13:45 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC are the binary risks framing the next leg.
Support: 1.3940, 1.39193, 1.38675
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.39688
What it said to watch
US CPI (12:30 UTC) and BoC decision (13:45 UTC) can materially reset this read within the next bars
Sustained close above the 1.3966 ytd ceiling opens the path back to the 1.3969 week high and beyond
Loss of the 1.3940 range floor exposes the 1.3919 swing low
USDCAD recovered off Monday's 1.3865 low and ran up into a 1.3969 week-high ceiling that has now capped multiple attempts. Price has since drifted back to 1.3942, slipping under EMA20 with RSI(14) easing toward the mid-40s as the four-day advance stalled. The pair is consolidating just below the YTD/two-month ceiling into the BoC decision, with no clean break of the 1.40 round number this week.
Support: 1.3919, 1.3887, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.39688, 1.4000
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision 13:45 UTC plus US CPI today could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.39688 opens the path toward the 1.40000 round number
Failure to hold 1.39190 swing low confirms a lower-low and breaks the week's rising support
USDCAD pushed off Monday's 1.38649 base into the 1.3960-1.3969 YTD ceiling, where two NY-session attempts were capped before price settled into a tight consolidation around 1.3942. Pullbacks have held the 1.3931 floor and price sits just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) flat near 46, a momentum pause rather than a turn. BoC today at 13:45 UTC is the catalyst — tone, not the priced-in hold, drives the next leg.
Support: 1.3931, 1.39193, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.39605, 1.39688
What it said to watch
BoC statement at 13:45 UTC (press conf 14:30) likely to drive the break or hold of the 1.3960-1.3969 ceiling
Hourly close above 1.39688 extends the week's uptrend
Loss of 1.39310 floor opens a deeper retrace toward 1.39193
US CPI at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
05:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling near ceiling · RSI 49 · price 1.39479
Consolidation below week high.
USDCAD climbed off Monday's 1.3865 low into the 1.3960-1.3966 YTD ceiling, where two attempts at the week high have stalled the advance. Price has spent the last two sessions chopping 1.3940-1.3960 with RSI(14) flattening near 50, sitting just under EMA(20) and holding above EMA(50). The pair is coiled into today's BoC decision, where the statement tone is the catalyst rather than the priced hold.
Support: 1.3920, 1.3887, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.39688
What it said to watch
BoC decision 13:45 UTC and press conference 14:30 UTC can materially shift this read
Hourly close above 1.3966 opens the path back to the 1.39688 week high
Loss of 1.3920 swing low confirms a deeper pullback toward 1.3887
Higher lows into 1.3966 supply, now consolidating.
USDCAD climbed off Monday's 1.3867 low through the week and printed a fresh 1.3969 high before stalling at the 1.3960-1.3966 YTD ceiling, where the latest push was rejected. Price is now coiling in the upper 1.394s, riding EMA20 with RSI(14) easing back to mid-range after the impulse. The week's narrative is CAD-soft on a technical-recession read, but today's BoC decision (tone, not the hold) and US CPI sit directly under this consolidation.
Support: 1.3945, 1.3920, 1.3867
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.3969
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3966 opens the path beyond the YTD ceiling
Loss of 1.3945 EMA20 and 1.3920 swing low pares the higher-low sequence
BoC statement 13:45 UTC and US CPI 12:30 UTC could materially reset this read
USD/CAD rallied off the 1.3865 week low through the NY session yesterday into a 1.3969 two-month high, but stalled at the 1.3960–1.3966 YTD ceiling and is now coiling in the upper 1.394s, pinned to the EMA20. RSI(14) has cooled back toward 52 as the advance flattened, with the latest bars drifting off the high. The BoC statement is the next catalyst, with the YTD ceiling capping every attempt this week.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3919, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.39688
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3966 opens the path beyond the YTD ceiling
BoC rate decision/statement at 13:45 UTC can materially shift this read
US CPI at 12:30 UTC is a fresh USD catalyst into the BoC
Failure to hold 1.3919 intraday low confirms a deeper pullback
USDCAD has ground higher off the 1.3865 week low and is now consolidating just under the 1.3960-1.3966 YTD ceiling, which has capped two attempts. RSI(14) has cooled back near 50 as price flattened above the EMA50, with the CAD softness narrative this week running into the YTD ceiling ahead of the BoC. The tape is coiling rather than extending into resistance.
Support: 1.3919, 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.3966
What it said to watch
BoC statement at 13:45 UTC is the catalyst and could shift this read
H1 close above 1.3966 opens the path beyond the YTD ceiling
Failure to hold 1.3919 confirms a lower low and breaks the rising support
USDCAD has ground higher since Monday's open, building higher lows and holding above EMA(20) as CAD sits pinned near YTD lows into the BoC hold. The week high at 1.39688 and the 1.39660 ceiling have capped the latest NY-session push, and price is now coiling in the upper 1.3950s with RSI(14) cycling around the mid-50s. Pullbacks this week have repeatedly found demand near the rising EMA(20).
Support: 1.3945, 1.39186, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.39688
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC and BoC decision at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.39688 opens the path beyond the YTD ceiling
Loss of 1.39186 swing low breaks the week's higher-low structure
USDCAD ground up to a fresh week high at 1.39688 before stalling, with price now coiling in the mid-1.3950s and holding above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) since the Monday recovery off 1.3865. RSI(14) has cooled back to the mid-50s as the rally flattens just under the YTD ceiling near 1.3966. The dominant up-leg ran from last week's 1.3865 base into NY hours yesterday; pullbacks have repeatedly found the 1.3920 area.
Support: 1.39193, 1.38942, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.39688
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC and the BoC decision at 13:45 UTC are the primary catalysts and could materially shift this read
An H1 close above 1.39688 opens the path toward the 1.3966 ytd ceiling
Failure to hold 1.39193 confirms a lower-low and breaks the rising support line
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling near range top · RSI 56 · price 1.39499
Higher lows grinding into the weekly ceiling.
USDCAD has ground higher since the Monday dip toward 1.3865, holding above EMA20/50 with pullbacks finding the moving averages each session. The 1.3966 ytd ceiling has capped progress and price is now consolidating around 1.3950 with RSI(14) cooling into the mid-50s. CAD remains pinned near the YTD high into today's BoC hold, with stretched CAD shorts the key two-way risk.
Support: 1.3919, 1.3945, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.3958
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3966 opens the path to fresh 2026 highs
BoC decision 13:45 UTC and US CPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.3919 breaks the week's higher-low structure
USDCAD has ground higher since the week's open near 1.3890, posting higher lows and tagging a week high at 1.39688 before stalling. Price is now coiling just under the 1.39613 two-month high with RSI flattening around 53, holding above the EMA20 near 1.3940. The 1.3960 area has capped repeated attempts as the pair sits in tight consolidation into the session's twin catalysts.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3919, 1.3890
Resistance: 1.39613, 1.39688
What it said to watch
US CPI 12:30 UTC and BoC decision 13:45 UTC could materially reset this read
An H1 close above 1.39688 opens the path to fresh 2026 highs
Loss of the EMA20 near 1.3940 and 1.39190 swing low would break the higher-low sequence
USDCAD has ground higher since the new week's open near 1.39295, peaking at the 1.39613 two-month high before stalling. Price is now consolidating around the EMA20 just under 1.3955, with the 1.39688 week high capping and the 1.39193 swing low marking the base of the week's range. RSI(14) sits mid-range, reflecting the loss of impulse after the rally.
Support: 1.3945, 1.39295, 1.39193
Resistance: 1.39613, 1.39688
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision Wed 13:45 UTC is the primary catalyst and could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.39688 opens the path toward fresh two-month highs
Loss of 1.39193 swing low confirms a lower-low and breaks the week's rising structure
USDCAD has trended higher since Monday's open, pushing to a fresh two-month high near 1.3969 in the NY session as a hot US NFP and crowded CAD shorts kept the Loonie capped. Price is now consolidating in the 1.3945–1.3960 zone with RSI(14) cooling back toward 53 after the run; the rising-lows structure off the 1.3865 base remains intact and pullbacks have held at the EMA20.
Support: 1.3946, 1.3919, 1.3887
Resistance: 1.39613, 1.39688
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.39613 opens the path toward the 1.39688 week high
Failure to hold 1.3946 EMA20 exposes the 1.3919 swing low
BoC rate decision Wed 13:45 UTC and US CPI today 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 58 · price 1.39565
Higher lows, capped at 2mo high.
USDCAD has held a grind higher all week, with CAD the weakest G10 performer despite a strong May jobs report as hawkish-Fed repricing dominates. Price rebuilt from the 1.3919 dip into the NY session and is now consolidating just under the 1.3961 two-month high, EMA20 supporting pullbacks. RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s to low-60s keeps the structure intact without an extreme.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3919, 1.3880
Resistance: 1.3961, 1.3969
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3969 opens further upside toward the YTD peak
BoC rate decision + statement Wed 13:45 UTC is the primary CAD catalyst — recession/dovish tone could pressure this read
Failure to hold 1.3947 EMA20 shifts focus back to the 1.3919 swing low
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into highs · RSI 61 · price 1.39565
Higher highs, coiling below two-month peak.
USDCAD has ground higher since Monday's open and is pinned near the 1.39613 two-month high, with pullbacks this week holding the rising EMA(20). The late-week leg from the 1.38727 low into 1.39688 has since stalled into a tight coil, RSI(14) cycling in the upper half. CAD remains the weak link into Wednesday's BoC decision, where tone — not the priced hold — is the swing factor.
Support: 1.3945, 1.39186, 1.38727
Resistance: 1.39613, 1.39688
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.39688 extends the uptrend toward the YTD peak
Loss of 1.39186 swing low breaks the rising structure
BoC rate decision Wed 13:45 UTC could materially reset this read