USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 10 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 45 · price 1.4154
Lower highs, lower lows; recovery underway.
USD/CAD has ground lower through the week from Monday's 1.4203 open, extending to a 1.4117 week low into the NY session before bouncing back to 1.4154. The decline picked up after today's firmer Canadian jobs beat (+18.2K) kept CAD supported. RSI(14) is recovering off oversold and price has just reclaimed EMA(20), but EMA(50) still caps overhead near the prior 1.4170 high.
Support: 1.4117, 1.4130, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.4203, 1.4225
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.4117 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.4170 needed to challenge the weekly open at 1.4203
BoC decision Jul 15 is the dominant CAD catalyst and could reshape this read
Lower highs and lower lows, reclaiming range floor.
USDCAD ground lower through the week off the 1.4226 high, sliding into the NY session yesterday as a soft dollar and a firm Canadian June jobs beat (+18.2K) pressured the pair. Price marginally broke the 1.4130 range floor to a 1.4117 weekly low before reclaiming it — a false break — and is now bouncing back toward the EMA20 near 1.4165 with RSI recovering off oversold. Both the EMA20 and EMA50 still cap price, keeping the weekly bias tilted lower into next week's catalysts.
Support: 1.4130, 1.4117
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.4189
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below 1.4117 reopens the downside after the false break
Reclaim of the 1.4165 EMA20 and 1.4189 prior high would ease the lower-high structure
US CPI Jul 14 and BoC Jul 15 are the week's dominant catalysts and could reshape this read
USDCAD has ground steadily lower since Monday's open near 1.4206, printing a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows into a fresh week low at 1.4117 during NY hours. The bounce back to 1.4151 comes as CAD firmed on yesterday's June jobs beat while the USD stays soft, but price remains below EMA20/EMA50 and the channel of lower highs still caps rebounds. RSI(14) has held above its price-low, hinting at fading downside momentum near the base.
Support: 1.41171, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.4200, 1.42259
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4165 breaks the lower-high channel and neutralises the downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.4117 confirms continuation of lower lows
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC and BoC Wed 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground lower all week from the 1.4206 weekly open, with the dominant leg coming in yesterday's NY session as June's CAD jobs beat (+18.2K) firmed the Loonie and drove a break to the 1.41171 week low. Price is holding below EMA20 and EMA50 with a modest bounce back to 1.4151, RSI(14) lifting off oversold near 44. The 1.4165 prior swing has capped the recovery so far.
Support: 1.41171, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.4188, 1.4206
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.4165 would ease the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.41171 week low confirms downtrend continuation
US CPI Tue and BoC decision Wed could materially reset this read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, this week · RSI 41 · price 1.41445
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's ~1.4226 high, with the down-leg accelerating through the NY session today after the CAD jobs beat (+18.2K vs +10K) pushed the pair to a fresh session low at 1.41171. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in the low 40s; the final bar bounced off 1.41171 back to 1.41445, but the structure remains a series of lower highs and lower lows. Prior support around 1.4170 now caps.
Support: 1.41171, 1.4130, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.4189, 1.4226
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4170 challenges the downtrend and reclaims EMA20
Failure to hold 1.41171 opens the 1.4075 area
BoC rate decision + MPR Wed is the decisive CAD catalyst
USDCAD has leaked lower all week off the 1.4225 high, sliding to a fresh 1.4117 low during today's NY session as CAD firmed on the jobs beat (+18.2K) and a soft USD near three-week lows. Price is capped under EMA20 (~1.4165) with each pullback selling into descending lower highs. A late bounce to 1.4144 has RSI(14) recovering from the low 40s but structure remains lower-low.
Support: 1.41171, 1.41326
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.41893, 1.4225
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4165 ema20 would challenge the downtrend read
Loss of 1.4117 swing low opens further downside
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC is the decisive CAD catalyst for this pair
USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's open near 1.4210, holding the 1.4130-1.4250 range for most of the week before the NY session cracked the 1.4130 pivot flagged as support. The June jobs beat (18.2K vs 10K) and a softer dollar kept CAD supported through the decline, with price now printing fresh lows near 1.4117. RSI(14) sits in oversold territory as the move accelerates below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4117, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4130, 1.4200, 1.4248
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.4130 broken pivot would repair the range read
Failure to hold 1.4117 session low opens 1.4075 range floor
BoC decision Jul 15 is the dominant near-term catalyst for CAD
Lower highs and lower lows, breaking range support.
USDCAD has bled lower all week from the ~1.4214 Monday open, and the decline accelerated into the NY session with a clean break of the 1.4130 range pivot flagged around BoC. Price now sits at 1.41248 having tagged a session low of 1.41171, with RSI(14) pressed into oversold as the pair trades well below both EMAs. The soft-USD/firm-CAD backdrop after the June jobs beat has kept sellers in control of every rally attempt.
Support: 1.41171, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4130, 1.41692, 1.4188
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.41171 opens the path toward 1.4075
Reclaim of 1.4130 pivot would negate the breakdown
BoC rate decision Jul 15 is the dominant near-term catalyst for CAD
US CPI Tue could reprice the USD leg of this move
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, pressing lows · RSI 39 · price 1.4134
Series of lower highs and lower lows.
USDCAD has ground lower all week off the 1.4226 open, printing a fresh three-week low at 1.4133 into the latest session as the CAD firmed on the June jobs beat (18.2K vs 10K) and a softer dollar. Price sits below EMA20 with each rally into the 1.4165 area sold, keeping the descending structure intact. RSI(14) near 39 tracks the down-leg without a divergence yet.
Support: 1.4130, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.4192, 1.4226
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4130 pivot opens the path toward 1.4075
Reclaim of 1.4165 ema20 would challenge the run of lower highs
BoC rate decision Jul 15 13:45 UTC is the dominant catalyst that could reset this read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, pressing lows · RSI 34 · price 1.4134
Lower highs, testing range support.
USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's open, a string of lower highs keeping price pinned below EMA(20) and EMA(50) as the soft USD tone (DXY at three-week lows) weighs. The NY session drove the latest leg down to 1.4133, back on the 1.4130 pivot that has capped the downside all week. RSI(14) near 34 reflects the sag without yet reaching stretched levels.
Support: 1.4130, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4130 pivot opens 1.4075 range low
Recovery above 1.4200 needed to challenge the lower-highs structure
BoC decision Jul 15 is the dominant near-term catalyst for this read
USDCAD has bled lower all week beneath a descending line of lower highs, printing a three-week low near 1.4135 after today's broad CAD jobs beat (+18.2K vs 10K) added to softening-USD pressure. Price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with the last NY session's bounce stalling ahead of the 1.4170 swing high. RSI(14) near 43 reflects fading downside momentum rather than a turn.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4170
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.41356 confirms continuation and opens 1.4110
Reclaim of 1.4170 swing high would break the week's lower-high sequence
BoC decision Wed is the decisive CAD catalyst and could reshape this read
USDCAD has drifted lower since Monday's open near 1.4215, pressing a three-week low at 1.4135 as receding Fed hike bets weigh on USD and today's strong Canada jobs beat (18.2K vs 10K) added CAD support. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with lower highs stacked through the week, and RSI(14) is cycling in the lower half without confirming an oversold extreme. The 1.4135–1.4188 band has contained trade for the last two sessions, with bounces capped near the 1.4170 lower high.
Support: 1.4135, 1.41415
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.41879
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4135 3wk low confirms a fresh lower-low toward the 1.4110 zone
Reclaim of 1.41700 lower high would neutralise the descending sequence
BoC decision Wed and US CPI Tue are the week's decisive catalysts for this read
USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's 1.4224 open, sliding to a three-week low near 1.4135 as receding Fed hike bets kept the dollar heavy. Today's CAD jobs beat (18.2K vs 10K) pressed the pair back toward that low before buyers stepped in twice around 1.4135–1.4141, holding a shallow base. Price is back at the H1 EMA20 with RSI cycling in the mid-40s; the 1.41879 swing high has capped the week's rebounds.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41879, 1.42242
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4135 confirms a lower low and opens 1.4110
Reclaim of 1.41879 needed to challenge the weekly open at 1.4224
Fed Monetary Policy Report at 18:00 UTC and US CPI Jul 14 could shift this read; BoC Jul 15 the decisive CAD catalyst
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 48 · price 1.41627
Lower highs, higher low forming off week low.
USDCAD has slid all week from the 1.4224 Monday open toward the 1.4135 week low, pressured by the three-day USD slide and Friday's across-the-board Canadian jobs beat. Price carved a higher low near 1.41443 and has recovered to reclaim EMA(20), though EMA(50) and the 1.4170 swing high still cap. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 47 after bouncing off oversold at the lows.
Support: 1.41356, 1.41443
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.41879, 1.42242
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.41356 week low keeps the double-bottom read intact
H1 close above 1.41879 week high negates the week's downtrend
US CPI Tue and BoC Wed are the decisive catalysts for the range
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into NY · RSI 42 · price 1.41473
Lower highs and lower lows all week.
USDCAD has ground steadily lower since Monday's 1.4224 open, printing successive lower highs and now sitting below both the EMA(20) and EMA(50). Today's firm Canadian jobs beat (18.2K vs 10K) pushed the pair through the 1.4150 area into the NY session, taking out the earlier 1.41356 day low. Price is hugging the cited ~1.4160 fair value with soft oil the only thing tempering CAD strength.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.41879, 1.4224
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.41879 prior high negates the lower-high sequence
Sustained break below 1.41356 day low opens 1.4110 channel support
BoC rate decision Jul 15 is the week's key catalyst for this pair
Series of lower highs and lower lows since Monday.
USDCAD has ground lower all week off the 1.4235 area, capped repeatedly on the EMA(20) near 1.4160 and printing a fresh three-week low into the NY session as today's Canadian jobs beat (+18.2K) firmed the Loonie. Price closed at 1.41473, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) mid-40s and the 1.41356 swing low the last shelf before 1.4135. Softer oil is the offsetting drag keeping the pair from extending cleanly.
Support: 1.41356, 1.41135
Resistance: 1.4160, 1.4188
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4160 EMA(20) would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Break and hold below 1.41356 swing low opens the 1.4135/1.4113 channel support
BoC rate decision + MPR Wed Jul 15 13:45 UTC is the week's key catalyst
USDCAD has drifted lower since Monday's open, carving lower highs from 1.4237 down to a week low at 1.41356 as receding Fed hike bets softened the dollar. Price has since recovered to 1.4158 and is consolidating around the EMA20, still capped below the EMA50. Demand has held the 1.4150 round-number and week-low zone twice heading into the Canada jobs release.
Support: 1.4150, 1.41356
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.41879
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.41700 breaks the week's lower-highs sequence
Loss of 1.41356 week low confirms a fresh lower low
USDCAD has ground lower through the week off Monday's 1.4237 top, marking a series of lower highs as receding Fed rate-hike bets weigh on the dollar. Price carved a week low at 1.4135 yesterday, bounced to 1.4170 and is now settling back below EMA20 near 1.4158 with RSI mid-40s. Canada jobs data lands at 12:30 UTC — the immediate catalyst into this read.
Support: 1.4145, 1.41356
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.4189
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close below 1.4135 confirms a lower low
Reclaim above 1.4170 challenges the lower-highs sequence
11:02 UTC
Downtrend easing into range · RSI 53 · price 1.41651
Basing above week low, lower highs.
USDCAD opened the week near 1.4220 and ground lower into Tuesday's 1.41356 low as a softer USD offset the oil pullback. Price has since based in a 1.4155-1.4172 range, sitting on the EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling back through 50. The 1.4188 prior high has capped recovery attempts, keeping the sequence of lower highs from Monday intact.
Support: 1.4155, 1.41356
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.4188
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.41880 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.41356 confirms a fresh lower low
USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's open near 1.4220, pressing a week low at 1.41356 in the NY session yesterday as a softer USD offset the oil pullback. Price has since recovered back to the EMA20 with RSI(14) lifting off oversold, flattening the intraday decline. The 1.4170 area caps the bounce, while lower highs from Monday keep the broader slide intact.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4152
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.41893, 1.42201
What it said to watch
Canada jobs (12:30 UTC) is imminent and could reset this read
Hourly close above 1.41893 session high would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.41356 week low confirms downtrend continuation
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's open near 1.4218, printing a week low at 1.41356 in the prior NY session as the USD extended a third-day slide on receding Fed hike bets. Price has since recovered back above the H1 EMA(20) with RSI(14) lifting off oversold to the mid-50s, but the 1.4182 9-day EMA and 1.4188 day high still cap the topside. The week's lower-highs structure remains intact.
Support: 1.41356, 1.41524
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.41893, 1.41959
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC (f/c +10K, 6.6%) could materially shift this read
Close above 1.41893 day high would break the week's lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold 1.41356 week low confirms downtrend continuation
USDCAD has trended lower all week from Monday's 1.42175 open as broad USD softness on receding Fed hike bets weighed. Price bottomed at the 1.4136 week low into yesterday's NY session, then recovered to 1.4169 where it now sits just above EMA20 but under EMA50. The bounce is a retest of the broken 1.4150 shelf rather than a fresh leg; RSI(14) has cycled back to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4189, 1.42175
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.41890 swing high invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.4136 week low confirms a lower low
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's open near 1.4230, with the soft-USD tape (DXY at a three-week low on the oil-led disinflation unwind) dragging the pair through mid-week. Price swept the 1.41356 week low overnight and has since recovered to 1.41679, reclaiming EMA20 while EMA50 caps overhead. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 49, reflecting the corrective bounce without momentum resolution.
Support: 1.41356, 1.41546
Resistance: 1.41879, 1.4203
What it said to watch
Canada jobs 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.41879 breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.41356 week low confirms continuation lower
USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's open, printing a week low at 1.41356 as a soft dollar led the G10 with the oil-led disinflation trade pricing out Fed hawkishness. Price is now retesting 1.41680 off that low, reclaiming EMA(20) but still capped under EMA(50), with RSI(14) recovering back toward the midline. The 1.41879 lower high remains the level that has framed each bounce this week.
Support: 1.41356
Resistance: 1.41879
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC (~3h) is the dominant near-term catalyst and can materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.41879 breaks the sequence of lower highs
Loss of 1.41356 confirms continuation of the downtrend
Lower highs and lower lows, bouncing off week low.
USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's open near 1.4228, printing a week low at 1.4135 during yesterday's NY session before recovering into today's Asia/London hours. CAD firmed with a softer dollar as Middle East de-escalation dragged oil-linked Fed bets; price now sits back at EMA20 (~1.4162) but remains capped under EMA50 near 1.4182. The bounce off the week low against a shallower RSI trough hints at fading downside momentum ahead of today's Canada jobs report.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4200, 1.4228
What it said to watch
Canada jobs report at 12:30 UTC is the immediate catalyst for the next leg
H1 close above 1.4182 ema50 would break the descending sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold 1.4135 week low confirms a fresh lower low
USDCAD has drifted lower since Monday's open near 1.4238, printing a sequence of lower highs and a fresh week low at 1.4135 into yesterday's NY session before recovering to 1.4164. The bounce off the low pushed RSI back toward the midline and reclaimed the flattening EMA(20), while the wider lower-high structure and the softer USD tone keep the pair below EMA(50). Price now sits between 1.4150 support and the 1.4188 recent high.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4188, 1.4238
What it said to watch
Canada jobs report at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4135 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.4188 challenges the week's lower-high sequence
USDCAD has trended lower through the week from the 1.4238 area, printing a fresh week low at 1.41356 into the London session before a bounce back toward 1.41578. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-40s; the 1.41820 prior-high area capped the last recovery attempt. Broader tone is a soft USD, though the pair remains within reach of the 1.4200 psych level.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.41820 would break the sequence of lower highs
Loss of 1.41356 week low confirms continuation lower
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, at week lows · RSI 43 · price 1.41578
Lower highs, lower lows; fresh week low then bounce.
USDCAD has ground lower from Monday's ~1.4218 open, printing a fresh week low at 1.41356 during today's session before a modest bounce to 1.41578; price sits below both H1 EMA(20) and EMA(50) with a persistent lower-high, lower-low structure. USD has been soft for a second day as easing Middle East tensions cool the hawkish-Fed narrative, keeping the pair pinned near fair value. Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC is the immediate pivot for this range.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4078
Resistance: 1.4188, 1.4218, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close below 1.41356 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 1.41880 prior high challenges the week's downtrend
USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's open, tracing the week high at 1.42383 down to a fresh low of 1.41356 in the Asia session before a modest recovery to 1.416. A soft US Dollar and firmer CAD tone have kept rallies capped around the 1.4182 prior-high area all week. Price sits back below EMA20 with RSI(14) mid-40s, so the bounce off the low has yet to break the lower-high sequence.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.42383
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.4182 would break the week's lower-high sequence
Lower highs and lower lows, fresh week low then bounce.
USDCAD has drifted lower all week off Monday's 1.4216 open, printing a clean descending sequence of lower highs and a fresh week low at 1.41356 in the Asia session before a modest bounce back to 1.4160. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the 45-50 zone, and the soft USD tone alongside CAD's firmer weekly bias has kept rallies capped at 1.4188. Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC is the immediate driver into this read.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4110, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4188, 1.42163, 1.4248
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.41880 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.41356 confirms a lower low toward 1.4110
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's 1.4238 open as a soft US Dollar kept the pair capped into every session bounce. Price broke below the 1.4150 area during the Asia session and printed a fresh week low at 1.41356 before a shallow recovery to 1.4156. Sitting below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) under 50, the broken 1.4168 level now acts as the nearest overhead reference.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4168, 1.4188
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC today and US CPI Tue could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.4168 broken level would ease the downside pressure
Sustained trade below the 1.41356 week low opens the path to the 1.4110 support
USDCAD has trended lower since Wednesday, carving lower highs from 1.4238 and breaking the 1.4150 support into a fresh session low at 1.4136 before a modest bounce to 1.4156. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) recovering from oversold into the low 40s. The softer-USD backdrop into next week's US CPI has kept the pair heavy despite a firm Canadian trade surplus earlier this week.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4110, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4200, 1.4210
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close back above the 1.4182 9d ema neutralises the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.41356 swing low confirms downside continuation toward 1.4110
USDCAD broke below the week's 1.4160–1.4190 range floor in the latest slide, printing a fresh swing low at 1.4136 with price now trading under EMA20 near 1.4165. RSI(14) around 33 reflects the extended momentum; a softer USD has been offset by CAD's firmer weekly tone. Prior high at 1.4189 caps recovery attempts and the week open near 1.4207 sits well above.
Support: 1.4136, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.4189, 1.4207
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 1.4165 (ema20) would neutralize the breakdown
Loss of 1.4110 support extends the downtrend
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum picking up · RSI 35 · price 1.41483
Lower highs, fresh break of range floor.
USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's open near 1.4210, drifting inside a 1.4160-1.4200 band before the last three bars broke the floor to a fresh week low at 1.41356. Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling near 35, and the descent reflects a mildly firmer CAD against an overbought dollar into today's Canadian jobs. Prior-low support at 1.4168 has now flipped to resistance capping any bounce.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4110, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4168, 1.4182, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.41356 confirms a lower-low extension
Recovery back above 1.4168 prior low neutralises the breakdown
USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's ~1.4207 open, printing a fresh week low at 1.41356 on the latest two bars as the softer dollar theme dominated ahead of US CPI. Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pressing into the low-30s, and the break under the 1.4168 prior range has extended the down leg. Lower highs from 1.42383 keep the structure firmly on the back foot.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4168, 1.41879, 1.42073
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC (f/c +10K, u/r 6.6%) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.41680 would neutralise the breakout lower
Loss of 1.41356 opens the path toward the 1.4110 support
USDCAD has ground lower all week from the 1.4238 high, printing a fresh low at 1.41356 into the late Asia session as an overbought USD kept fading. Price broke the 1.4150 shelf that had held since mid-week and sits well below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 30. The 1.4182 area (9-day EMA) has capped every bounce attempt.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4110, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4200, 1.42248
What it said to watch
Canada jobs today 12:30 UTC (f/c +10K) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.4182 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Failure to reclaim 1.41356 keeps the lower-low structure intact toward 1.4110
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, at week lows · RSI 36 · price 1.41518
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDCAD has trended lower all week from Monday's open near 1.4208 and the 1.42383 week high, printing fresh week lows into 1.4150 on the latest push. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pressed near oversold as the down-leg accelerated in the last two bars. A softer US Dollar and a corrective crude bounce have kept the Loonie modestly firm, with much CAD bad news already priced.
Support: 1.4150, 1.41546
Resistance: 1.4172, 1.4188, 1.42078
What it said to watch
Sustained break below 1.41500 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
H1 close back above 1.41720 challenges the lower-high structure
Canada Employment 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground lower all week from the 1.4208 weekly open, printing a fresh low at 1.4150 as the softer US Dollar offset a corrective pullback in crude. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with each bounce capped under the 1.4188 prior high, and RSI(14) around 37 reflects sustained downside pressure without a full oversold read. The 1.4150 support that held mid-week is being retested into the close.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4188, 1.4208
What it said to watch
Canada Employment at 12:30 UTC today is the near-term swing factor
Hourly close below 1.4150 opens the 1.4110 channel base
Reclaim of 1.4188 prior high needed to break the lower-high sequence
USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's 1.4211 open, printing a sequence of lower highs and basing near 1.4152 as a soft USD offset fading oil support. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) mid-40s, and the last day has coiled in a 1.4159-1.4189 range just above the week low. The C$77.1B export beat drew little bid, leaving Friday's Canada jobs report as the next catalyst.
Support: 1.41524, 1.41587
Resistance: 1.4168, 1.41893, 1.42108
What it said to watch
Canada employment Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c +10K, UR 6.6%) could break the range either way
Hourly close below 1.41524 confirms continuation of the week's lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.41893 swing high challenges the lower-high structure
USDCAD has leaked lower since Monday's ~1.4211 open, grinding out lower highs and testing the 1.4155 week low into yesterday's NY session before a bounce stalled near 1.4189. Price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50, consolidating in a tight 1.4160–1.4170 band with RSI(14) hovering in the low-40s. The broad USD softness against fading oil support has kept the pair pinned around fair value with no fresh directional catalyst.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4180, 1.4211
What it said to watch
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC could break this range in either direction
H1 close below 1.4155 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.4110 channel base
Reclaim of 1.4180 bounce high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's open near 1.4210, printing a week low at 1.4152 before stabilising around 1.4170 near the cited fair value. A softer USD after divided FOMC minutes offset fading oil support, leaving the pair pinned with no clean directional follow-through. Price sits just above the H1 EMon(20) but under EMA(50), with the recent 1.4160–1.4190 range holding into the Canada jobs release.
Support: 1.4160, 1.4152
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4190, 1.4196
What it said to watch
Canada employment Fri 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst for the next bars
H1 close above 1.4190 invalidates the lower-high sequence
USDCAD ground lower through the week from the 1.4238 high into a 1.4152 base, and has since flattened into a tight consolidation around 1.4165-1.4180 during Asia hours. Price sits just under the EMA20 with RSI(14) hovering near 47, and the twin lows at 1.4155/1.4152 mark a shallow double bottom. Broad USD weakness and softer oil have kept the pair pinned near fair value with little directional conviction.
Support: 1.4152, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4200, 1.4238
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC (f/c +10K, UR 6.6%) is the dominant catalyst and can break this range
H1 close above 1.4182 ema invalidates the consolidation-near-lows read
Failure to hold 1.4152 week low confirms continuation of the downtrend