USDCAD spent three weeks grinding in a 1.4000-1.4130 range before a sharp break lower, with the decisive down-bar following Friday's dual jobs shock — a blowout Canadian print and a negative US NFP. Price took out the 1.40 psychological pivot and the 1.3980 support zone, printing a two-month low near 1.3925 before a shallow bounce. ATR(14) has expanded on the breakdown and price trades well below both EMAs, confirming downside momentum.
Support: 1.3925, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.4000, 1.4030
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.4000 psych would invalidate the range-break read
Loss of 1.3925 confirms a lower low and extends the down-leg
US CPI Wed 12 Aug could materially reshape this USD-driven read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, breaking to new lows · RSI 34 · price 1.39417
Lower highs and lower lows, sub-1.40 break.
USDCAD rolled over out of its multi-week 1.400-1.412 range, accelerating lower after Friday's dual jobs shock (Canada +75.1K vs US -23K NFP) and firm crude. The breakdown through the 1.40000 psych pivot at 1.40230 dragged price to a fresh two-month swing low near 1.39254, with EMA20 and EMA50 both capping above. Momentum is firmly bearish but ATR is contained, leaving price pressed against the base of the move.
Support: 1.39254, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4023, 1.4065
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12 Aug 12:30 UTC is the swing factor for this read
H4 close below 1.39254 swing low confirms continuation of lower-low structure
Reclaim of the 1.40000 psych pivot would negate the range break
Loss of 1.39000 round number opens further downside
USDCAD rolled over below the 1.40–1.412 multi-week range, accelerating lower after the shock -23K US NFP miss met a firm Canadian jobs beat. The breakdown candle sliced from 1.4022 to sub-1.395, tagging 1.3925 — the lowest print in the window — with ATR(14) expanding sharply on the move. Price sits below both EMAs and is basing just above 1.3925 after a marginal bounce.
Support: 1.39254, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40374, 1.40798
What it said to watch
Reclaim and close back above 1.40000 would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.3925 confirms a lower low toward the 1.39 psych level
US CPI Wed Aug 12 could materially shift this read
USDCAD spent two weeks caged between 1.40 and 1.412 before slicing through the 1.40 prior floor on a single sharp bar, printing a swing low at 1.3925 — the weakest since June. The move ties to a broadly offered USD after the -23K NFP shock alongside a firm CAD jobs beat. Price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with the last three bars only a shallow pause under the broken 1.40 level.
Support: 1.39254, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4023, 1.41284
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.40 would neutralise the range break lower
Break below 1.3925 swing low confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
US CPI Wed Aug 12 12:30 GMT could materially reset this read