HH/HL chain since the Sep 8 higher low; tight range under 1.4298.
USD/CAD has built a HH/HL chain since the Aug 21 / Sep 8 double bottom near 1.3732–1.3759, and the month-long CAD selloff after two straight Canadian jobs losses (-68.3K in September) carried price through the june high at 1.4248 to an 18m high of 1.4298. The last eight sessions have compressed into a 1.4205–1.4298 range just under that peak, with price back below the june high after a softer-USD pullback early this week. RSI near 63 has cooled from the late-September push, and price holds above both a rising EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.4205, 1.4082, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4298
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC: a core print at or above 0.3% m/m could materially shift this read
BoC Gov. Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC: dovish tone on labour slack would add CAD pressure
D1 close above the 18m high at 1.4298 opens the 1.4300 round figure and extends the uptrend
D1 close below the range low at 1.4205 breaks the rally trendline and exposes the fib 38.2 near 1.4082
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number undoes the double bottom structure
HH/HL from Sep 8 low; 1.4205–1.4298 range near highs.
The uptrend dates from the Aug 21 (1.3732) and Sep 8 (1.3759) lows, a double bottom that cleared its 1.3939 neckline mid-September. Price has since held above a rising EMA(50) and taken out the late-June 1.4248 peak. Over the last seven sessions the advance has compressed into a 1.4205–1.4298 range: Friday's -68.3K Canada jobs miss and broad USD strength printed the 1.4298 18m high, but there has been no daily close beyond it. RSI(14) near 70 shows the month-long rally is stretched, with the ema20 near 1.4160 trailing well below the range.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4160, 1.4082
Resistance: 1.4298, 1.4500
What it said to watch
Daily close above the 1.4298 18m high range cap extends the uptrend; round number 1.4500 is the next marked level
Close below the 1.4205 range low exposes the ema20 near 1.4160 and the 38.2% fib of the Aug–Oct rally at 1.4082
A fresh high above 1.4298 without RSI exceeding its prior peak would register as bearish divergence
BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; Canada CPI follows Oct 19