Lower highs and lower lows; trading just under the broken 1.4200 floor.
Wednesday's hot-CPI spike to the 1.4299 week high was fully unwound through the NY session and into Asia. That left a rejection and a sequence of lower highs, capped by Thursday's 1.4222 day high. Falling Treasury yields drove Thursday's NY extension to a 1.4169 week low despite the strong US data dump, and closes have since held just under the 1.4200 broken floor and EMA(20) near 1.4198. RSI(14) sits near 42 and price holds below both EMAs, with only a shallow bounce off the swing low at 1.4182 so far in the CPI spike fib.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4222, 1.4299
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 1.4200 broken floor and EMA(20) would stall the lower-low sequence; a push through the 1.4222 day high breaks the lower highs line
Loss of the 1.4182 swing low and the 1.4169 week low extends the lower-low structure
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~4.5h) and BoC's Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery toward the 50% CPI spike fib near 1.4234 would turn the current retest into a deeper retracement
Lower highs and lower lows off the 1.4299 week high, compressing at the week low.
Wednesday's CPI spike was rejected at the 1.4299 week high, and the pair has since stepped lower through the 1.4200 round number. Thursday's hot US data lifted price only to the 1.4220 lower highs, which line up with the 38.2% fib of the drop. The move faded as Treasury yields fell, and price reached a week low at 1.4169 in the NY session. A late-NY session low at 1.4182 has held since, with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50), RSI(14) near 37, and price pressing the descending trendline off the week high.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4220, 1.4264
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4200 round number would break the compression under the descending trendline
H1 close above the 1.4220 lower highs (38.2% fib of the drop) would invalidate the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4182 session low exposes the 1.4169 week low; a break there extends the lower-low structure
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC and BoC's Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
A recovery toward the 1.4264 weekly open would require a sustained turn in US yields
Lower highs and lower lows after the rejected CPI spike; price capped below EMA20.
Wednesday's CPI spike in the NY session briefly cleared Monday's high to set the 1.4299 week high, then fully unwound. Lower highs have followed since, with Thursday's NY session printing a fresh week low at 1.4169 as falling Treasury yields overrode the hot US PPI and retail sales beats. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.4200, which has capped Thursday's rebounds alongside the 1.4222 lower high. RSI(14) holds in the mid-30s, short of oversold, and the 1.4182 session low is the nearest floor above the week low.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4222, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4222 lower high and the 38.2% retrace of the CPI spike would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4169 week low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.4150 round number
Fed Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) and BoC's Macklem (Fri 04:15 UTC) during the Asia session could materially shift this read
Sustained acceptance back above EMA20 near 1.4200 would turn Thursday's range into a base rather than a pause
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, below range floor · RSI 31 · price 1.41853
Lower highs from 1.4299 after a break of the 1.4195 range floor.
Wednesday's CPI spike in the NY session met rejection at the 1.4299 week high, and the sell-off unwound the whole move by Thursday's Asia session. In NY today the hot PPI and retail sales beat produced only a wick to 1.4222 before falling Treasury yields drove a break below the 1.4195 range floor to a 1.4169 week low. Lower highs near 1.4220 are capping each bounce, price sits below EMA(20) with RSI(14) holding in the low 30s, and the 38.2% retracement of the sell-off aligns with that 1.4220 cap.
Support: 1.4169, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4220, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4195 range floor and EMA(20) would turn the break into a false break
Close above the 1.4220 lower highs breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 50% retracement near 1.4234
Failure to hold the 1.4169 week low exposes the 1.4150 round number
Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) and Macklem (Fri 04:15 UTC) during the Asia session could materially shift this read; Hammack at 20:30 UTC is a nearer, lower-impact risk
CPI spike rejected, lower highs and lower lows into week low.
The week opened at 1.4270, and Tuesday's London-NY selling broke below Monday's 1.4240 low. Wednesday's hot US CPI spike to the week high at 1.4299 was rejected and fully unwound by Thursday's Asia session, as falling Treasury yields weighed on USD despite hot PPI and retail sales. Thursday's NY session printed a new week low at 1.4169, and price now sits near the ny low at 1.4182, below a flattening ema20 around 1.4205 with RSI(14) in the high 30s.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4222, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4222 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the week high and invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4169 week low confirms another lower-low
A reclaim of ema20 at 1.4205 after the ny low test would mark the first higher low since Wednesday's rejection
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC), Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) and BoC's Macklem (Fri 04:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
Fib 38.2% of the CPI spike sell-off near 1.4219 sits with the thu high as the first retracement zone
Lower highs below 1.4222; range floor near 1.4195 broken.
Wednesday's CPI spike to the 1.4299 week high was unwound within the same NY session. A run of lower highs since then has been capped by today's high near 1.4222, as falling Treasury yields weighed on USD. The 1.4192–1.4200 range floor held from Tuesday into Thursday, then gave way in NY hours after the hot PPI and retail sales gains faded, printing a 1.4169 week low before the latest close below the floor, with price under both EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.4169, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4222, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4195 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4169 week low brings the 1.4130–1.4150 channel low into view
Reclaim of today high 1.4222 (38.2% fib and the lower-highs trendline) would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Macklem at 04:15 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh at Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Hammack speaks at 20:30 UTC
17:03 UTC
Downtrend from Wednesday's CPI high, pressing range floor · RSI 42 · price 1.41977
Lower highs since 1.4299 week high; repeated tests of 1.4195 floor, PPI-driven false break to 1.4169.
Wednesday's NY-session CPI spike to the 1.4299 week high was fully retraced into Thursday as US yields pulled back, leaving a sequence of lower highs below the opening level near 1.4270. Today's PPI beat produced a NY-hours false break to the 1.4169 week low that closed back at the 1.4195 range floor, which has now held on closing basis since Wednesday's Asia session. Price sits just under EMA(20) near 1.4204, which has capped bounces since Wednesday, with RSI(14) flat around 42.
Support: 1.4195, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4204, 1.4222, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4169 week low invalidates the range floor and confirms a lower-low
H1 close above the 1.4222 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence and reopens the mid-1.42s
Hold of the 1.4195 range floor after the PPI false break keeps the floor read intact
Warsh 03:30 UTC and Macklem 04:15 UTC Fri during the Asia session could materially shift this read
Hammack at 20:30 UTC today is a secondary USD risk
16:02 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday's high, losing pace near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.42005
Lower highs from 1.4299; false break below two-week low.
Wednesday's CPI spike to the 1.4299 week high faded within the NY session and has given way to lower highs. Price is back below the 1.4270 week open and into the 1.4195 two-week low zone as US yields pulled back despite the hot data. After today's PPI release, price popped to a 1.4222 ppi high, then dipped to a 1.4169 week low in early NY hours before closing back near 1.4200, a false break with RSI(14) around 44 and price still under EMA(20).
Support: 1.4195, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.42217, 1.42703, 1.42993
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4169 week low would turn the false break into a fresh lower-low
Close above the 1.4222 ppi high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence from 1.4299, putting the week open at 1.4270 back in play
Repeated H1 closes under 1.4195 would turn the two-wk low zone from support into a cap
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) and BoC's Macklem (Fri 04:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, pressing range floor · RSI 37 · price 1.41955
USD/CAD has fully unwound Wednesday's US CPI spike to the 1.4299 week high, grinding lower through NY and Asia hours. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.4209 and EMA(50) near 1.4224, with falling Treasury yields offsetting hot US inflation data. Today's PPI and retail sales releases whipsawed the pair, and the NY session then probed a fresh week low at 1.4169 before the bar closed back at the 1.4194 range floor. The 1.4222 lower high caps the structure, and RSI(14) near 37 is not yet oversold.
Support: 1.4194, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4209, 1.4222, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4169 week low turns the false break into a fresh lower low
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 1.4209 plus a close above the 1.4222 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; 38.2% fib of the CPI spike sits at 1.4219
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC), Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) and Macklem (Fri 04:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
Rebound toward the 1.4299 week high would need US yields to rebuild after the PPI beat
Lower highs since CPI spike, testing 1.4192–1.4200 floor.
USDCAD has erased all of Wednesday's CPI spike to 1.4299, which briefly cleared Monday's highs before reversing into a false break, and has since carved lower highs back to the 1.4192 week low. Today's hot PPI and retail sales lifted the pair only to 1.4222 before the move faded in the first hour of NY, leaving price below EMA(20) near 1.4210 with RSI(14) around 38. Demand has stepped in around 1.4192–1.4200 several times since Wednesday's Asia session, while rallies keep stalling well below the weekly open at 1.4270.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4210, 1.4222, 1.4270
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4192 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4150 round number
Recovery above the 1.4222 PPI high and EMA(20) breaks the lower-highs trendline from the CPI spike
Fib 50% near 1.4246 and the weekly open at 1.4270 mark the zone where the downtrend read would be challenged
Hammack (20:30 GMT), then Warsh (Fri 03:30 GMT) and Macklem (Fri 04:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4299, flat floor 1.4192–1.4200.
Wednesday's CPI spike in the NY session briefly cleared Monday's 1.4287 top to a 1.4299 week high, then was rejected. The false break unwound through Thursday's Asia session as the dollar faded on dovish Fed talk and lower yields, taking price back below the 1.4270 week open. Since then price has consolidated between 1.4192 and 1.4222, below EMA(20) near 1.4212 and EMA(50) near 1.4225. Lower highs capped today's hot-PPI pop at the 1.4222 ppi high, while the week low and the 1.4200 psych area have absorbed four tests with RSI(14) near 43 and no divergence.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4192
Resistance: 1.4222, 1.4270, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4192 week low extends the lower-highs sequence and breaks the four-day floor
Recovery above the 1.4222 ppi high and EMA(50) opens the 38.2% cpi fade fib near 1.4233, then the 1.4270 week open
Repeated holds at the 1.4200 psych area keep the consolidation read intact
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC), Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) and Macklem (Fri 04:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the CPI high; tight base 1.4192–1.4220.
Monday's NY-session high near 1.4287 gave way to a NY-hours breakdown on Tuesday below 1.4240. Wednesday's hot US CPI spike to the 1.4299 cpi high was fully unwound through NY and Asia as US yields slid and the USD gave back its CPI pop, leaving a clean rejection below the weekly open at 1.4270. Price is now compressing between the 1.4192 week low and today's high at 1.4220, below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 41 and downside momentum fading.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4270, 1.4299
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.4192 week low extends the downtrend toward the 1.4150 round number
A reclaim of today's high at 1.4220 and the lower-highs trendline opens the 38.2% cpi spike fib near 1.4233, then the weekly open at 1.4270
BoC Governor Macklem speaks Oct 16 at 04:15 UTC; the cpi high at 1.4299 caps the week's range
Lower highs since the CPI spike above a flat base near 1.4194.
Wednesday's NY-session pop on the hot US CPI print reached 1.4299. That stalled a pip above Friday's jobs-driven high, forming a double top, and the pair unwound the whole move through Asia as US yields reversed. Price is now back at the 1.4194 week low, tested three times since Wednesday, below the week open at 1.4270. EMA(20) near 1.4214 and the 1.4220 lower high capped Thursday's London session, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.4194, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4214, 1.4270, 1.4299
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.4194 week low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.4150 channel low
Reclaim of EMA(20) ~1.4214 and the 1.4220 lower high neutralises the post-CPI downtrend
Recovery through the 50% fib ~1.4247 toward the 1.4270 week open challenges the double top read
BoC Macklem speaks Fri 04:15 UTC, a risk for the Asia session
10:02 UTC
Downtrend since CPI high, momentum stalling at floor · RSI 37 · price 1.42029
Lower highs off 1.4299 pressing a flat range floor near 1.4195.
USDCAD fully round-tripped Wednesday's US CPI spike to the 1.4299 cpi high as Treasury yields slid and the dollar bid faded. Each rebound since has printed a lower high. Price is now retesting the 1.4194 week low just under the 1.4200 psych level into today's London session. It trades below the EMA(20) near 1.4217 with RSI(14) in the high 30s, and the 1.4195 floor has absorbed three tests since Wednesday's Asian range, with no H1 close below it yet.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41943
Resistance: 1.4217, 1.42703, 1.42993
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4194 week low breaks the range floor tested three times since Wednesday
Recovery through the ema20 near 1.4217 and the lower-highs line would neutralise the post-CPI decline; the weekly open at 1.4270 sits above
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
A reclaim of the 1.4299 cpi high would turn the CPI false break into a range break; BoC's Macklem speaks Fri 04:15 UTC
Double top 1.4298/99, lower highs into 1.4195 neckline.
The week opened at 1.4270. Wednesday's NY-session CPI spike to a 1.4299 week high was a false break above Friday's 1.4298 jobs-day high, and the move then unwound fully as the USD faded on lower yields and Fed pushback, leaving a double top and a CPI fade back below EMA(20) and EMA(50). Price printed a marginal new week low at 1.4194 into London today and sits on that neckline, while RSI(14) near 38 holds well above Wednesday's ~22 reading at a near-identical low, a bullish divergence beneath the run of lower highs.
Support: 1.4195, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4218, 1.4270, 1.4299
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.4195 week low confirms the double top and opens the 1.4150 channel floor
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.4218 and the lower-highs trendline undercuts the CPI fade read, with the 1.4270 weekly open next above
Rejection again below 1.4220 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact into the neckline
US Retail Sales/PPI bundle at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read
BoC Macklem speech Fri 04:15 UTC is the next CAD-side event risk
08:03 UTC
Range, pressing the floor after CPI fade · RSI 43 · price 1.42087
1.4196–1.4300 weekly range; CPI spike rejected at the week high, daily lows stepping lower.
USDCAD has fully round-tripped Wednesday's US CPI spike. The NY-session push to 1.4299 stalled a pip above Friday's jobs-day high, leaving a double top at the week high, and the CPI fade ran through Asia back to the 1.4196 week low as Treasury yields sank. Price is holding under EMA(20) near 1.4219 with RSI(14) at 43, and the week low has absorbed two Asia-session tests. The weekly open at 1.4270 sits mid-range above.
Support: 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4219, 1.4270, 1.4299
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the ema20 near 1.4219 and the fade lower highs would ease pressure on the range floor
Failure to hold the 1.4196 week low confirms a fourth straight lower low and a range break
A reclaim of the weekly open at 1.4270 would put the 1.4299 week high back in play
BoC Gov. Macklem speech Fri 04:15 UTC is the next CAD-side risk
07:03 UTC
Downtrend off the CPI spike, momentum easing near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.42115
Lower highs inside a 1.4196–1.4299 weekly range, price at the range base.
USDCAD has fully unwound Wednesday's CPI spike to the 1.4299 week high. It faded through NY hours and Asia to a fresh week low at 1.4196 as US yields slid, leaving a double top against Friday's jobs-driven 1.4298 high. The London open bounce broke the fade trendline but stalled at ema20 near 1.4222, which lines up with the 23.6% retracement of the CPI fade fib, while RSI(14) has recovered to 44 from the high-30s.
Support: 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4222, 1.4270, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4196 week low confirms the double top and extends the lower-low sequence from the CPI high
Acceptance above ema20 at 1.4222 opens the 38.2–50% CPI fade fib zone at 1.4235–1.4247, with the week open at 1.4270 above
Renewed slide back under the broken fade trendline keeps the post-CPI lower-high sequence intact
US retail sales/PPI cluster at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read; a hot print would put the 1.4299 week high back in focus
BoC Governor Macklem Fri 04:15 UTC is the next CAD-side risk to the range read
1.4196–1.4299 weekly range, double top at range high.
The week opened at 1.4270 after Friday's Canada jobs spike to 1.4298. Hot US CPI lifted price to a 1.4299 week high in Wednesday's NY session, a one-pip false break of Friday's high, before the dollar fade and softer crude unwound the whole move through Asia to a week low at 1.4196. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.4222 and the weekly open, and has edged above the post-CPI lower-high line into London open, with RSI(14) back to ~45 from 37 as the Wednesday/Thursday double low near 1.4196 holds.
Support: 1.41955
Resistance: 1.4222, 1.42703, 1.42993
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4196 week low breaks the double low that forms the double-top neckline and the week's range floor
Reclaiming EMA(20) at 1.4222 and the 50% CPI spike fib at 1.4247 confirms the break of the post-CPI lower-high line and opens the path to the 1.4270 weekly open
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h, NY open) could materially shift this read
Macklem speaks Fri 04:15 UTC; a dovish tone would put the 1.4299 week high back in focus
05:03 UTC
Range, sliding from post-CPI high · RSI 42 · price 1.42102
1.4196–1.4299 range; lower highs since CPI spike, price near floor.
The week opened at 1.4270 after Friday's jobs-shock spike to 1.4298. Tuesday's NY selloff on dovish Fed comments and firmer oil found a Tuesday low at 1.4203. Wednesday's hot US CPI lifted the pair in NY to a week high at 1.4299, but it stalled at Friday's peak, forming a double top. The move then fully unwound through Asia, printing a week low at 1.4196 as the dollar faded. Price sits below EMA20 near 1.4225 and below EMA50, with RSI(14) back to the low 40s after an oversold dip, and a sequence of lower highs has capped every bounce since the CPI spike.
Support: 1.41955, 1.42034
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.42703, 1.42993
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4196 week low breaks the range floor and the Tuesday low cluster
Reclaim of EMA20 near 1.4225 and the lower-high trendline would ease the post-CPI fade read
Weekly open at 1.4270 then the 1.4299 week high are the levels a renewed USD bid would have to clear
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
BoC Macklem speaks Fri 04:15 UTC; a dovish tone is the main CAD-side risk to the range floor
04:02 UTC
Range, rolling over from range top · RSI 35 · price 1.41987
Double top at 1.4298–1.4299, price back at week low.
Wednesday's hot US CPI spiked the pair to 1.4299, matching Friday's post-jobs high, but the move was sold through the NY session and Asia hours. That completes a double top and has fully unwound the CPI leg. Price now sits on the week low near 1.4196, below the ema20 (~1.4223) and the 1.4270 week open, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and a selloff trendline of lower highs since the peak.
Support: 1.4196, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4223, 1.4270, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4196 week low breaks the 1.42–1.43 range floor, leaving the 1.4100 round number as the next marker below
Recovery through the selloff trendline and ema20 near 1.4223 would neutralise the CPI rejection, and the 50% CPI spike fib sits at 1.4247
Reclaiming the 1.4270 week open puts the 1.4299 double top back in play, while a close above it would invalidate the pattern
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today (~8.5h) could materially shift this read
BoC Macklem speech Fri 04:15 UTC is the next CAD-specific risk
1.4196–1.4300 weekly range; both spikes to the top rejected.
USDCAD has held a 1.4196–1.4300 range all week. Friday's Canada jobs spike and Wednesday's hot US CPI spike both stalled at 1.4298–1.4299, forming a double top, and the CPI gain was fully unwound through NY hours and into the Asia session as Treasury yields reversed. Price is back at the week low near 1.4200, below EMA(20) at 1.4230 and EMA(50) at 1.4235, with RSI(14) near 40 after rolling over from post-CPI highs. The 38.2%–61.8% band of the CPI fade fib (1.4238–1.4261) sits between EMA(20) and the week open at 1.4270.
Support: 1.41964
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.42703, 1.42993
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.4196 week low would break the range floor after two holds (Wednesday and Thursday Asia)
A recovery above EMA(20) at 1.4230 and into the CPI fade fib band would put the week open at 1.4270 back in play
Macklem at 04:15 UTC and the US PPI/Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
A close above the 1.4299 double top would end the range read
Double top at 1.4299; post-CPI lower highs pressing the 1.4196–1.4203 range floor.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print lifted USD/CAD about 100 pips during the NY session, from the 1.4196 week low to 1.4299. The high stalled one pip above Friday's jobs-spike peak, and the move has since unwound almost entirely through post-CPI lower highs, leaving a double top at the 18-month high. Price is back below the ema20 near 1.4231 and the 1.4270 week open, with RSI(14) near 39. The tuesday low at 1.4203 and the week low at 1.4196 form the neckline zone of the pattern.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4270, 1.4299
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.4196 week low completes the double top and breaks this week's range floor.
A recovery above the ema20 at 1.4231 and then the 1.4270 week open would neutralise the post-CPI lower highs.
Holding the tuesday low at 1.4203 keeps the pair inside the week's range.
BoC Governor Macklem's high-impact remarks could materially shift this read; a dovish lean would put the 1.4299 double top back in focus.
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC Thursday are the next USD input; a hot bundle could reopen the 1.4299 area.
Double top at 1.4299; lower highs off the CPI high into the range floor.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print sent USDCAD from 1.4204 to 1.4299 in the first hours of NY, one pip above Friday's jobs-driven high near the 1.4300 handle, but the spike stalled there. The pair has since unwound the entire move despite the broader USD bid, completing a double top and printing steady lower highs back to 1.4213. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.4233 with RSI(14) easing to ~41, just above Tuesday's low at 1.4203 and the week low at 1.4196, the floor of this week's 1.4196–1.4299 range.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4233, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4196 week low confirms the double top and breaks the range floor; Tuesday's low at 1.4203 is the first test
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.4233 and the post-CPI lower highs line would neutralise the fade
Double top at 1.4299 caps the range; an H1 close above it and the 1.4300 handle invalidates the reversal read
Macklem's speech and the US 12:30 UTC PPI / retail sales / claims cluster on Thursday could materially shift this read