USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 17 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Sideways after failed 1.4000 test · RSI 51 · price 1.39903
Balanced range, tight thin-liquidity coil at the mid.
London afternoon tagged 1.40010 and was rejected at the round number, with NY hours flushing to the 1.39734 ny low before buyers reclaimed the figure-minus handle — the Fed/BoC spread story that dragged CAD to 1.40 is already in the price. Early Asia is now coiled in a 1.39851–1.39924 asian range on minimal volume, RSI(14) ~51 and ATR(14) at just 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.39851, 1.39792, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39924, 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.39924 asian high re-opens the 1.39972 ny high and the 1.4000 round number
Loss of 1.39851 asian low exposes the 1.39792 swing low and the 1.39734 ny low
ATR under 3 pips means the current range read holds until liquidity returns at the London open
Fed's Bowman 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT could break this range
23:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.39883
24h range, price back to mid after 1.4000 rejection.
USDCAD has spent the last 24 hours boxed between 1.39734 and the 1.4000 psych level, with the NY push into 1.40010 rejected and the subsequent flush to the session low fully retraced. Price is now pinned at 1.39883 in thin early-Asia trade, RSI(14) mid-range near 49 and ATR(14) down to ~2.6 pips — no structural setup in play with the Fed–BoC spread story already priced.
Support: 1.3984, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.3993, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.39930 range top puts the 1.4000 psych level back in focus
Loss of the 1.39840 range base re-exposes the 1.39734 session low
Fed's Bowman 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT can break this range
Consolidation under 1.4000 after failed break; shallow higher lows off the session low.
USDCAD poked the 1.4001 session high in the London-NY window, was rejected at the figure and slid to the 1.39734 session low before recovering to the mid-1.3990s — consistent with the post-FOMC rate-divergence bid meeting supply at 1.4000. Price has flatlined in thin post-NY trade with ATR(14) near 2.6 pips and RSI(14) mid-range; a shallow higher-low chain sits above the 1.3981 ny low.
Support: 1.39851, 1.3981, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4001 session high would invalidate the rejection-at-the-figure read
Loss of the 1.3981 ny low re-opens the 1.39734 session low
Failure of the higher low at 1.39851 ends the recovery structure
Thin liquidity into the Asia open can distort the range before London
23:01 UTC
Flat, drifting under 1.4000 · RSI 54 · price 1.3990
Tight consolidation after rejection at the 1.4000 round number.
Price was turned away from the 1.4000 round number at the 1.4001 session high during NY hours, slid to the 1.3973 session low, then recovered and has spent the last several hours pinned in a 1.3985–1.3992 band with ATR(14) down to ~3 pips. RSI(14) mid-50s, price hugging EMA20 and EMA50 — no directional structure in play as the hawkish-Fed / on-hold-BoC divergence sits fully priced just below the figure.
Support: 1.3985, 1.3973
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4001, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4000 and the 1.4001 session high would break the consolidation read
Loss of the 1.3985 range floor puts the 1.3973 session low back in play as a lower-low test
Liquidity is thin in these late bars — ranges this tight often expand on the London handover
Early Asia is coiling in a 1.39851–1.39924 band after the NY drop from 1.40010 to 1.39734 was retraced around 60%; lower highs into 1.39972 have left the 1.4000 psych figure unchallenged. ATR(14) near 2 pips and RSI(14) at 52 — nothing structural in play at this hour, with USDCAD parked just under the figure post-hawkish Fed.
Support: 1.39851, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39924, 1.39972, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.39972 ny high puts the 1.4000 psych figure back in play
Loss of the 1.39851 asia low reopens the 1.39734 ny low
BoJ decision ahead of the London open could reset the dollar tone and this range read
22:31 UTC
Sideways, no directional drive · RSI 49 · price 1.39899
24h range with lower highs since the 1.4001 rejection.
USDCAD has held a ~27 pip band all session, 1.39734–1.40010, with the 1.4000 psych level rejected around the London-NY overlap and demand stepping in at the 1.39734 session low in mid-NY. Post-NY-close bars are thin and coiled between the 1.39851 range floor and the 1.39924 range top, RSI(14) near 49 and price pinned to EMA20 — no setup in play.
Support: 1.39851, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39924, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.39924 range top with follow-through re-opens a psych 1.4000 test
Loss of the 1.39851 range floor puts the 1.39734 session low back in play
BoJ decision ahead of the London open, then Bowman 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC, could reset the USD leg of this range
22:15 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 55 · price 1.3990
Range between 1.3973 and 1.4001, price mid-range.
USDCAD stalled under the 1.4000 psych level after the hawkish Fed repricing, with the NY session high at 1.4001 rejected and a session low at 1.3973 bought back within two hours. Late NY/Asia handover has compressed ranges hard — ATR(14) near 2.8 pips and price pinned just above the ema20 at 1.3988, no structural setup in play.
Support: 1.3988, 1.3979, 1.3973
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4001, 1.4000
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above 1.4001 breaks the session high and invalidates the range read
Loss of 1.3973 session low would confirm a lower low out of this consolidation
Failure to hold the ema20 at 1.3988 shifts the balance back toward the 1.3979 swing low
Thin Asia liquidity means the range can widen sharply at the London open
22:02 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.3990
24h range 1.3973-1.4001, price mid-range.
The 1.4000 psych level capped the London push — 1.40010 printed and was rejected, after which NY sold down to the 1.39734 ny low before price was reclaimed back into the middle of the range. Late-session bars are pinned in a 1.3988-1.3992 pocket with ATR(14) near 2.7 pips and RSI(14) at 49; CAD remains the post-Fed laggard but there is no intraday structure in play at this price.
Support: 1.39851, 1.39817, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.39972 ny high, then psych 1.4000, would break the 24h range read
Supply capping below the ny high keeps the day's compression intact
Loss of the 1.39851 recent low, then the 1.39817 pm low, reopens the 1.39734 ny low
Thin late-session liquidity distorts ATR; BoC Macklem Mon 15:00 UTC is the next event risk for this pair
Range between 1.3973 and 1.4000, higher lows since NY morning.
USDCAD spent the NY session capped by the 1.4000 round number — the 1.39972 session high was rejected twice — before a flush to the 1.39734 session low and a full recovery back into the 1.3985/1.3992 pocket, with the Fed-BoC spread story keeping CAD the laggard. Late-session bars are 1-3 pips with ATR(14) near 3.6 pips: no structural move in play, price is sitting mid-range above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) flat in the mid-50s.
Support: 1.39851, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
A 15m close above the 1.4000 round number would break the day's range ceiling
Loss of the 1.39851 swing low re-exposes the 1.39734 session low and breaks the higher-low chain
Thin Asia-open liquidity (volume collapsing to single digits) can distort the range edges
Range-bound; higher lows off the session low but capped under the session high.
The 1.4000 psych level was tagged at 1.40010 during the London-NY overlap and rejected, with NY hours flushing to a session low of 1.39734 before a grind back to 1.3990 — right on the 61.8% retracement of that leg. Post-NY-close bars are thin and compressed into a 1.39851-1.39927 box, ATR(14) just 3.4 pips, RSI(14) mid-range at 56; nothing structural in play while the Fed-BoC divergence story keeps price pinned under the figure.
Support: 1.39836, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above the 1.39972 session high and the 1.4000 psych level would end the range read
Loss of the 1.39836 swing low re-opens the 1.39734 session low and confirms a lower low
Thin liquidity into the daily rollover can exaggerate wicks without changing structure
21:16 UTC
Sideways, drifting back up after NY dip · RSI 58 · price 1.39907
24h band 1.39734–1.40010; higher lows since the NY low, price mid-range.
USDCAD was rejected at 1.40010 just ahead of the NY open and slid to the 1.39734 day low before recovering the mid-range; late NY has compressed into a 1.39851–1.39927 band with ATR(14) down to ~3.4 pips. The 1.4000 psych level is still the cap on the Fed-BoC divergence move, with RSI(14) neutral near 58 and price marginally above EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 1.39851, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39927, 1.4000
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.39927 session high puts the 1.4000 psych level back in play
Loss of the 1.39851 swing low re-exposes the 1.39734 day low
BoJ decision pre-London and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT can break this low-ATR range
21:03 UTC
Sideways, drifting higher into the close · RSI 57 · price 1.3990
Compression under 1.4000 after a failed break and V-shaped recovery.
The 1.4000 psych level was tagged at 1.40010 in the London-NY overlap and rejected, with the flush extending to a prior low of 1.39734 before the whole move was recovered inside three hours. Late NY has coiled in a 1.39836-1.39960 band with ATR(14) at ~3.8 pips, price pinned just above EMA20 and RSI(14) mid-range — a seven-day USD/CAD run stalling at the round number rather than reversing.
Support: 1.39885, 1.39836, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4001
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 1.40010 clears the psych level and voids the false break read
Loss of the 1.39836 session low reopens the 1.39734 prior low
Thin late-NY/Asia liquidity keeps ranges compressed; BoJ pre-London is the nearest USD-side catalyst and could reprice the dollar leg
Coiling under the day high after a full retrace of the NY dip.
NY hours produced a flush to the day low at 1.39734 that was fully retraced within two hours, then a rejection at the 1.39972 session high left price coiling in a 4-pip band around the ema20 into the late-NY tape — ATR(14) down to 3.4 pips. The 1.4000 psych level, the focus of the Fed–BoC divergence trade, has capped every attempt in this window.
Support: 1.39885, 1.39817, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.39972 session high puts the 1.4000 psych level back in play
Loss of the 1.39817 session low reopens the 1.39734 day low
Fed's Bowman (07:30 GMT) and US Industrial Production (13:15 GMT, f/c +0.3%) are the next catalysts capable of breaking this consolidation
20:16 UTC
Sideways, no directional edge · RSI 53 · price 1.39878
24h range 1.3973–1.4001, price mid-range.
London pushed to 1.40010 and was rejected at the psych 1.4000 handle, then NY sold down to the 1.39734 session low before recovering into the middle of the day's 28-pip range — Fed–BoC divergence keeps the handle in focus but neither side has extended. Last bars are post-NY-close and near-flat with price pinned to EMA20 around 1.3988, RSI(14) neutral at 53 and ATR(14) just 4.2 pips.
Support: 1.3981, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.39960 session high puts psych 1.4000 back in play
Loss of the 1.39810 swing low reopens the 1.39734 session low
Bowman remarks 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT could break this range
20:02 UTC
Range-bound, no directional edge late NY · RSI 48 · price 1.39878
Recovered inside the 1.3973–1.4001 range; mid-range compression.
A rejection at 1.4001, just under the 1.4000 psych level, dropped price to the 1.39734 session low mid-NY before a full recovery to the 1.39972 ny high. The last four hours have compressed into 1.39835–1.39930 around the 50% fib of that leg at 1.39872, ATR(14) near 3 pips into the daily close, with Fed–BoC divergence still keeping the pair pinned below 1.4000.
Support: 1.39835, 1.39792, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3994 swing high and 1.39972 ny high puts the 1.4000 psych level back in play
Loss of the 1.39835 swing low reopens the 1.39792 prior low and the 1.39734 session low
3-pip ATR into rollover: Asia-hours liquidity can distort these levels on thin flow
Friday's Fed Bowman remarks 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT are the next catalysts for this range
19:46 UTC
Sideways, no directional edge · RSI 48 · price 1.39891
24h range 1.3973–1.4001, price back at mid.
NY session opened with a rejection just under the 1.4000 psych level at 1.40010, then a fast 27-pip flush to the day low at 1.39734 before the whole move was retraced — Fed–BoC divergence keeps the pair pinned below the round number rather than through it. Late NY has compressed into a 1.39835–1.39930 coil with price sitting on the ema20, RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR(14) down to roughly 4 pips.
Support: 1.39885, 1.39835, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.39972 session high puts the 1.4000 psych level back in play
Loss of 1.39835 (ny swing low) reopens the day low at 1.39734
Sub-4-pip ATR means the range read holds until one of those edges gives way
Fed's Bowman 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT Friday could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Sideways, drifting back to mid-range · RSI 52 · price 1.39903
24h range 1.3973–1.4001, higher lows since the NY low.
The mid-NY poke to 1.40010 was rejected and price flushed to 1.39734 before recovering; since then a chain of higher lows (1.39734, 1.39817) has carried price back to 1.39903, mid-range. Late NY hours are thin — ATR(14) is just 3.4 pips and RSI(14) sits neutral near 52, with USD/CAD still pinned below the 1.4000 psych level after the Fed–BoC divergence repricing.
Support: 1.39817, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.39972 puts the 1.4000 psych level back in play
Loss of the 1.39817 recent low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 1.39734 day low
Friday's US Industrial Production and Fed's Bowman remarks could reset this intraday range
19:16 UTC
Sideways, drifting up off the NY low · RSI 47 · price 1.39903
24h range 1.3973–1.4001, higher lows since 14:15 UTC.
USDCAD was rejected at the 1.40010 session high in the pre-NY hours and sold off to 1.39734 by mid-NY, since when it has ground back to 1.39903 in a chain of higher lows — the whole 24h window is a 27-pip coil under the 1.4000 psych level that the Fed-BoC divergence story has parked price against. ATR(14) is just 4.8 pips and RSI(14) is mid-range near 47, with the last bar printing minimal activity into the late NY close.
Support: 1.39836, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.39972 prior high would put the 1.40010 session high and the 1.4000 psych level back in play
Loss of 1.39836 swing low reopens the 1.39734 session low and breaks the higher-low chain
US Industrial Production and Fed's Bowman on Friday are the next scheduled catalysts capable of resolving this range
19:02 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift into the close · RSI 48 · price 1.39903
Range between 1.3973 and 1.4001, coiling under the 1.4000 psych level.
USDCAD spent the NY session pinned in a 27-pip band, rejecting twice just under the 1.4000 psych level (1.4001 window high, then 1.39972 session high) before a dip to the 1.39734 session low was bought back through London-NY. Late NY hours have it grinding back to 1.39903 above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-range — the Fed-BoC divergence story keeps the pair parked below the round number rather than through it.
Support: 1.39817, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.39972 / the 1.4000 psych level would end the range read
Loss of the 1.39817 swing low reopens the 1.39734 session low
Thin late-NY liquidity — the current bar's range is well below the ~4.5 pip ATR
18:46 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat after NY rebound stalled · RSI 52 · price 1.39886
Intraday range, lower highs since the 1.4001 rejection.
Late NY hours have gone quiet, coiling in a 1.39836-1.39972 band with ATR down to ~4.6 pips and RSI(14) mid-range at ~52. The 1.40010 poke earlier in the London-NY transition was rejected and the drop to the 1.39734 ny low was fully bought back, but the recovery stalled below the session high — consolidation just under the 1.4000 round number that has capped this Fed-BoC divergence grind all week.
Support: 1.39836, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.39836 recent low reopens the 1.39734 ny low
Reclaim of the 1.39972 session high puts the 1.40010 round number back in focus
Fed's Bowman (Fri 07:30 GMT) and US Industrial Production (Fri 13:15 GMT) are the next catalysts capable of breaking this range
18:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 1.39866
Tight coil under 1.4000 after a failed probe and a defended session low.
The 1.4000 psych level was tagged at 1.40010 and rejected during the London-NY transition, with the flush finding demand at the 1.39734 session low before a recovery back to 1.39972 stalled — post-FOMC USD strength versus a frozen BoC still frames the grind, but hot Canadian PPI capped the extension. Late NY has coiled into a 1.39817-1.39887 box with ATR down to ~4.5 pips and RSI(14) mid-range at 52; no structure in play right now.
Support: 1.39817, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.39972 ny high re-opens the 1.4000 psych level
Loss of the 1.39817 swing low puts the 1.39734 session low back in play
Fed's Bowman (07:30 GMT) and US Industrial Production (13:15 GMT) Friday could break this coil
18:16 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 1.39869
Compression under 1.4000 after a failed probe, inside day's upper half.
Early NY tagged the 1.4000 psych level at 1.4001 and was rejected straight back to 1.39734, the session low, before a full recovery into the 1.39970 session high — pair now coiling in a 2-3 pip band on the EMA20 with RSI(14) mid-range at ~52. The whole 24h window is Fed-BoC divergence consolidation: USD firm post-hawkish hike, CAD unhelped by hot Canadian producer prices.
Support: 1.39817, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.3997, 1.4001
What it said to watch
A 15m close above the 1.39970 session high re-opens the 1.4000 psych test
Loss of 1.39817 recent low puts the 1.39734 session low back in play
ATR(14) at ~5 pips shows a dead late-NY tape; any expansion off this compression is the first structural signal
Fed's Bowman Fri 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT can break this range read
18:02 UTC
Sideways after a rejection at 1.4000 · RSI 55 · price 1.39869
Lower highs into a tight late-NY range.
The NY morning poked 1.40010 through the 1.4000 round number and was rejected, unwinding 27 pips to the 1.39734 ny low before a recovery stalled at the 1.39972 lower high. Price has since coiled in a 7-pip band around the 50% retracement of that move, sitting on 1.39869 with ATR(14) down to ~6 pips into the late NY drift; the post-FOMC USD bid and a frozen BoC remain the backdrop, but nothing structural is in play inside this range.
Support: 1.39817, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.39972 lower high would put the 1.4000 round number back in scope
Loss of the 1.39817 recent low reopens the 1.39734 ny low and confirms a lower low
Fed's Bowman 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT Friday could reset this range
17:46 UTC
Sideways, no intraday direction · RSI 49 · price 1.39876
Range beneath 1.4000 after failed high.
London pushed USDCAD to 1.40010 and the round number rejected it, with early NY hours flushing to a 1.39734 session low before the pair rebuilt into the 1.39972 session high. Price is now mid-range around 1.39876 with RSI(14) near 49 and ATR(14) only ~5.6 pips — the Fed-BoC divergence bid is parked, not extending.
Support: 1.3979, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40010 would end the rejection read at the round number
Loss of 1.39790 then 1.39734 would confirm a lower low and break the range floor
US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT and the BoJ decision Friday are the next inputs that could reprice this range
17:31 UTC
Sideways, drifting under 1.4000 · RSI 53 · price 1.39872
Intraday range 1.3973-1.4001, lower highs since NY morning.
USDCAD has spent the NY session boxed between the 1.39734 session low and the 1.4001 round number, with the late-day bounce stalling at 1.39972 for a second lower high. Price is pinned on EMA20 with RSI(14) mid-range and ATR(14) at ~6 pips — post-FOMC USD strength is being consolidated rather than extended.
Support: 1.39817, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.4000 round number would end the range read
Close below the 1.39817 swing low re-exposes the 1.39734 session low
Recent high at 1.39972 — area to monitor for rejection or break
US Industrial Production and BoJ decision tomorrow are the next scheduled catalysts capable of reshaping this range
17:16 UTC
Sideways, no intraday direction · RSI 55 · price 1.3987
Range between 1.3973 and 1.4001, price mid-range.
NY morning tagged the 1.4000 round number and was rejected, then the pair slid to a 1.3973 session low before recovering to the 1.3997 session high; late NY has it drifting back to 1.3987, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) mid-range. The whole 24h window is a 28-pip coil under 1.4000 as the post-Fed, hawkish-Fed-versus-on-hold-BoC divergence sits already priced. ATR(14) ~5.5 pips — compressed conditions into the close.
Support: 1.3982, 1.3973
Resistance: 1.3997, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4001 round number would end the sub-1.4000 range read
Loss of the 1.3973 session low confirms a lower low and breaks the rising intraday support line
Rising support off the 1.3982 swing low keeps the shallow recovery structure intact while held
Fed's Bowman 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT tomorrow are the next scheduled inputs for this pair
17:03 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 1.39858
Range beneath 1.4000 after a failed push at the round number.
NY afternoon has USDCAD chopping in a 1.3973–1.4001 band, with the 1.4001 print and the later 1.39972 session high both rejected at the 1.4000 round number as post-FOMC USD strength stalls. Price is pinned to EMA20 near 1.3986 with RSI(14) at 47 and ATR(14) only ~6.5 pips — no structural expansion in play.
Support: 1.3979, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.39972 session high would end the range read and re-engage 1.4000 round number
Loss of 1.39790 pullback low then 1.39734 session low would confirm a lower low into the close
Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production tomorrow are the next inputs capable of breaking this range
16:46 UTC
Sideways, drifting off the highs · RSI 45 · price 1.39835
Range under 1.4000, lower high after rejection.
USDCAD has spent the last 24 hours coiled in a 1.3973–1.4001 band, with the round number capping every attempt during NY hours and the latest push stalling at the 1.39972 session high — consistent with the digest's read of a six-day rally consolidating just under 1.4000. Price has slipped back below the ema20 into the NY afternoon with RSI(14) at 45 and ATR(14) only 6.5 pips, so the range is compressing rather than resolving.
Support: 1.3980, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39865, 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40010 round number would break the range top
Loss of 1.39734 session low confirms a lower low and voids the range read
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.39865 would put the session high back in play
US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT and the BoJ decision Friday are the next USD inputs
16:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum neutral after NY rejection · RSI 49 · price 1.39873
Range between 1.3973 and 1.4001, price mid-range at EMA20.
The 1.4000 handle was rejected twice in the NY session — 1.4001 session high, then a lower high at 1.39972 — with the flush to the 1.39734 session low fully retraced back to the EMA20, where the pair has stalled. Post-FOMC Fed-BoC divergence keeps USDCAD pinned just under the figure, but RSI(14) at 49 and ATR(14) of ~7 pips describe a compressed late-NY range rather than directional flow.
Support: 1.3979, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4001 session high would break the range top and invalidate the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.39734 session low confirms a lower low and voids the range read
Failure to hold the 1.3979 swing low would put the session low back in play
Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production tomorrow are the next scheduled inputs for this pair
16:16 UTC
Sideways, coiled just under 1.4000 · RSI 56 · price 1.39895
Range with higher lows off the NY session low.
Price was rejected at the 1.40010 session high early in NY and sold to 1.39734 before recovering in a chain of higher lows back to the 1.39972 prior high — the pair remains pinned in a ~28 pip band under the 1.4000 psych level after the hawkish Fed hike widened the Fed–BoC gap. RSI(14) near 56 and ATR(14) around 7 pips describe a compressed, low-range NY afternoon holding above the 1.39872 ema20.
Support: 1.39872, 1.39805, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39972, 1.4001, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40010 session high would extend the range break above the 1.4000 psych level
Loss of the 1.39805 swing low re-opens the 1.39734 session low and invalidates the higher-low chain
US Industrial Production Fri 13:15 GMT and Fed's Bowman 07:30 GMT are the next scheduled USD catalysts for this range
16:02 UTC
Sideways after FOMC spike, drifting higher again · RSI 55 · price 1.39917
Intraday range 1.3973–1.4001 with a higher-low chain off the NY low.
The pair gapped and ran to 1.3993 on the hawkish Fed hike late in yesterday's NY session, then spent Asia coiled in a 10-pip band before mid-NY hours tagged the 1.40010 session high and were rejected, flushing to a 1.39734 session low. Price has since rebuilt a higher-low chain and trades back above the ema20 at 1.39873, capped so far by the 1.39961 prior high. RSI(14) neutral at 55, ATR(14) ~6.8 pips.
Support: 1.39873, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39961, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40010 session high would negate the rejection and extend the range top
Failure to hold the 1.39873 ema20 puts the 1.39734 session low back in play as a lower-low test
Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production tomorrow could reset this intraday range
15:46 UTC
Sideways after Fed-driven leg up, upward drift within range · RSI 59 · price 1.39932
Range between 1.3973 and 1.4001, coiling under the 1.4000 handle.
USDCAD has spent 24 hours consolidating the impulse off the FOMC hike, and today's NY session poked the 1.4001 session high before being rejected back to 1.39734. Price has recovered the full drop and sits at 1.39932, back above ema20 with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR(14) at just 7.6 pips — a compressed range directly under the 1.4000 handle.
Support: 1.39875, 1.39805, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.39955
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40010 session high would confirm a range break rather than a second rejection
Loss of the 1.39805 micro pivot and then the 1.39734 session low would confirm a lower low and invalidate the range-top squeeze read
Sustained trade back below ema20 (~1.39875) would flatten the intraday upward drift
BoJ decision and US Industrial Production (13:15 GMT Friday) are the next USD-side catalysts that could reprice this range
15:31 UTC
Sideways after impulsive push, drift higher off session low · RSI 45 · price 1.39896
Range under 1.4000 with lower highs since the NY high, recovery from 1.3973.
London's hawkish-Fed impulse from 1.3920 stalled exactly at the 1.4000 round number (session high 1.40010) and NY has been rangebound since, with a late slide to the 1.39734 session low bought back to 1.39896. RSI(14) near 45, ATR(14) about 8 pips — supply capping into the 1.39955 lower high, no directional break in play.
Support: 1.39792, 1.39734, 1.39597
Resistance: 1.39955, 1.4001, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40010 session high would end the lower-high sequence under the round number
Failure to hold 1.39734 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes the london base at 1.39597
Sustained trade back below 1.39792 swing low would invalidate the recovery read
Lower highs from the day high, bounce off session low, price back mid-range.
Price stalled at the 1.40010 day high in the first hours of NY after holding an 1.3980-1.4000 shelf through Asia/London, then slid to a 1.39734 session low with lower highs building since. Firm US data (claims 196K, Philly Fed 37.8) had kept USD supported into the highs; the last two bars have recovered to 1.39846, just under the 1.39890 ema20.
Support: 1.39734, 1.39806
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4001
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.39890 ema20 puts the 1.40010 day high back in play
Loss of the 1.39734 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.39806 prior low shelf being left behind
Late-NY drift with ATR at ~7.8 pips per bar means level breaks may be thin until the next session's US risk events
Post-FOMC range 1.3973–1.4001, lower highs since the 1.4001 print.
The 18:00 UTC Fed decision gapped price from 1.3920 up to the 1.3993 area, and the pair has spent the ~20 hours since capped by the 1.4000 psych level, with the 1.40010 range high rejected in early NY. NY hours then pushed down to a 1.39734 session low before a bounce back to 1.3985, leaving RSI(14) at 42 and price under EMA20/EMA50 with ATR(14) at 7.5 pips.
Support: 1.3979, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.39923, 1.4001, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.39923 lower high would restore the upper half of the range
Loss of the 1.39734 session low extends the lower-high chain into fresh range lows
Acceptance above the 1.40010 range high invalidates the range read
No USD or CAD releases scheduled in the next 8 hours; catalyst risk sits with Friday's Bowman remarks and BoJ
14:46 UTC
Intraday downswing off 1.4000, momentum still lower · RSI 35 · price 1.39774
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY-hours rejection at the session high.
The 1.4001 session high poked the 1.4000 round number in late London and was rejected, and price has since built a clean chain of lower highs into NY hours, breaking out of the 1.3985-1.3995 prior range that held through Asia. Last closed bar at 1.39774 sits below EMA20 (~1.3986) with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR(14) around 7 pips — the Fed-BoC divergence theme that drove the move up to 1.4000 is being partially unwound intraday.
Support: 1.39734, 1.39596
Resistance: 1.3986, 1.3990, 1.4001
What it said to watch
A close back above 1.39900 prior range would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 1.39734 session low extends the NY downswing toward the gap base at 1.39596
No further US or Canadian releases scheduled today; Bowman and US Industrial Production tomorrow are the next scheduled catalysts
14:46 UTC
Downtrend within the last 8 hours, momentum fading at lows · RSI 35 · price 1.39774
Range break lower after repeated 1.4000 rejection; lower highs, lower lows since NY open.
The Asian and London sessions coiled in a tight 1.3985–1.3995 shelf built off the post-FOMC surge, then NY hours produced a rejection at the 1.4000 psych level (1.40010 high) and a break of the range floor near 1.39900, with the slide extending to a 1.39734 session low. RSI(14) at ~35 with price under EMA20 and EMA50; last two bars stalled just above 1.39734, ATR(14) ~7 pips.
Support: 1.39734, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4001
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.39900 range floor would invalidate the downside break read
A close below 1.39700 round number confirms continuation of the lower-low chain
US data slate is done for the session; drift risk into late NY as liquidity thins
14:31 UTC
Post-FOMC uptrend stalled, near-term rolling over · RSI 34 · price 1.39748
20h consolidation under 1.4000 broken lower; lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4001 print.
The hawkish FOMC hike gapped price off 1.3920 into 1.3993 late yesterday, after which USDCAD spent roughly twenty hours coiling in a 1.3980–1.4000 range. This NY morning the 1.4001 poke was rejected at the round number and the 1.3982 range floor has now given way, with price at 1.39748 below EMA20 and RSI(14) near 34 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 1.39745, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3982, 1.3989, 1.4001
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.39820 range floor would invalidate the downside range break
Failure to hold the 1.39700 psych level confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Repeated rejection under 1.40010 prior high keeps the round-number exhaustion read intact
US calendar thin into the rest of NY hours; Fed speak Friday is the next scheduled risk to this read
USDCAD was rejected at the 1.4000 round number in the early NY session, printing a session high at 1.40010 before slicing through the 1.39890 broken floor of the prior 20-hour consolidation. Price is pinned on the session low at 1.39745 after a chain of lower highs, RSI(14) at 34 and ATR(14) around 7 pips; the Fed-BoC divergence story that drove the six-session run into 1.4000 has stalled at the handle.
Support: 1.39745, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4001
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.39890 broken floor would negate the downside range break
Loss of the 1.39700 round number confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
US calendar thin into the close; Bowman Friday 07:30 GMT is the next USD catalyst that could reset this read
14:16 UTC
Range topped out, momentum rolling lower · RSI 34 · price 1.39748
Day range 1.3980-1.4001 broken to the downside, first lower low of NY.
The 1.4000 round number capped a marginal 1.40010 poke and the first hour of the NY session took out the 1.39805 range low, leaving price at 1.39748 below both EMA20 (~1.3988) and EMA50 with RSI(14) at 34. That range had held all through Asia and London, so this is the first clean break of the day after the post-FOMC Fed-BoC divergence run stalled at the round number; ATR(14) is only 7 pips, so moves are small.
Support: 1.39745, 1.3960, 1.39345
Resistance: 1.39805, 1.3988, 1.4001
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.39805 and the ema20 would negate the range-low break
Acceptance below the 1.39745 session low exposes the 1.3960 round number, then the 1.39345 prev day low
Failure to push back above 1.40010 keeps the round-number rejection intact
US calendar is thin into the rest of NY hours; Fed-speak headlines are the main intraday risk to this read
14:16 UTC
Post-FOMC range, rolling over into NY · RSI 34 · price 1.39748
Range break lower after rejection at 1.4000.
Price spiked to 1.39932 on the hawkish Fed hike late Wednesday, then spent Asia and London coiling in a 1.39810-1.40010 band before the day high stalled just under the 1.4000 round number. Early NY hours have broken the range floor at 1.39810 and pressed to a session low of 1.39745, with RSI(14) down near 34 and price under both EMA20 and EMA50; ATR(14) is a thin 6.8 pips.
Support: 1.39745, 1.3960, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.3981, 1.3990, 1.4001
What it said to watch
A close back above 1.39810 would put price inside the prior range and negate the range break
Acceptance below the 1.39745 session low would extend the leg toward the fib 50% at 1.39600
Failure at the 1.39900 range mid on any bounce keeps the lower-high sequence intact
US calendar is thin for the rest of the NY session; Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production Friday are the next catalysts
The 18:00 UTC FOMC hike lifted USDCAD off 1.3920 to 1.3993 and price then spent Asia coiled in a 1.3986-1.3998 band. London pushed to 1.4001 before the round number rejected it; NY hours have printed lower highs and a fresh session low at 1.39792, with price back under the 1.3990 ema20 and RSI(14) near 38 — well clear of the FOMC base at 1.3960.
Support: 1.39792, 1.3960
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.40000 round number would reopen the post-FOMC highs
A close back above the 1.39900 ema20 neutralises the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.39792 session low confirms a lower low into the close
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT is the only near-term print; CAD-specific risk is thin until next week
14:02 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling over intraday · RSI 42 · price 1.39805
Range under 1.4000, lower highs since the 1.4001 poke.
The London-NY transition produced a marginal poke through the 1.4000 round number at 1.4001 that was immediately rejected, and price has since traded a tight 1.39792-1.39950 range with a chain of lower highs into early NY. Supply capping at the range top reflects a market already long the Fed-BoC divergence story; RSI(14) at ~42 is neutral and ATR(14) is only ~7 pips, so ranges are compressed.
Support: 1.39792, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.3995
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close accepted above the 1.4000 round number invalidates the false break read
Loss of the 1.39792 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.39700
Thin US calendar into the NY afternoon keeps ranges compressed unless Fed-speak lifts October hike odds
13:46 UTC
Up but stalled, momentum flat · RSI 45 · price 1.39877
Post-FOMC breakout digesting in a tight range under 1.4000.
The hawkish Fed hike late in yesterday's NY session gapped USDCAD up from 1.3935 to 1.3993 and price has spent the entire Asia and London stretch coiling in a 20-pip band under the 1.4000 round number. Early NY tagged 1.40010 and was rejected straight back to the 1.39806 session low; RSI(14) at 45 and price a touch under EMA20/EMA50 leaves the range intact rather than resolved.
Support: 1.39806, 1.3972
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.39955
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40010 session high would resume the post-FOMC leg; failure there keeps 1.39955 prior high as the cap
Loss of the 1.39806 session low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.39720 fomc leg base
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT lands in the next bar period and can break this range
The hawkish Fed hike drove the impulsive leg off 1.39197 and price has spent the last 20 hours grinding sideways between 1.39806 and the 1.40010 round number. Into the NY open the push at 1.4001 was rejected and price slid 20 pips to the session low before recovering to mid-range; RSI(14) at 45 and price marginally below EMA20/EMA50 leave no directional edge here, ATR 6.3 pips.
Support: 1.39806, 1.39576
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.39955
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above the 1.40010 round number would end the range read and open the 1.40–1.4150 zone
Loss of the 1.39806 session low would confirm the first lower low since the post-FOMC leg
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT is the only near-term print able to disturb this range
Consolidation under 1.4000 after rejection at session high.
The post-FOMC/Warsh advance topped out at the 1.40010 session high in late London and was rejected, with the London–NY transition unwinding to 1.39806 despite firm US claims and Philly Fed. Price is now compressed in a 1.39806–1.40010 range, capped by the 1.39900 ema20, RSI(14) at 45 and ATR(14) just 6.4 pips — no directional structure in play.
Support: 1.39845, 1.39806
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4001
What it said to watch
Two tests of the 1.39806 session low have held; a 15m close below it breaks the range floor
Reclaiming the 1.39900 ema20 would put the 1.40010 session high back in range
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT lands inside the next bars and can widen this range
Failure at the 1.39845 pivot low would confirm a lower-low chain into the NY session
20-hour range 1.3980–1.4001, price mid-range below EMA20.
The FOMC hike drove a vertical 80-pip leg at the 18:00 UTC bar, and price has done nothing since — grinding sideways between the 1.3980 range floor and 1.4001 session high for 20 hours. NY hours produced a poke at the 1.4000 round number followed by rejection back to 1.39806, exactly the fib 38.2 shelf's upper edge; RSI(14) at 42 and price under the 1.39895 ema20 with ATR only 6 pips.
Support: 1.39806, 1.39701
Resistance: 1.39895, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.39806 breaks the range floor and opens the fib 38.2 area at 1.39701
Reclaim of the 1.39895 ema20 puts the 1.40010 session high back in play
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT is the nearest catalyst inside this range
Post-FOMC breakout digesting in a 20-pip band under 1.4000.
The 18:00 GMT FOMC hawkish hike drove the impulsive leg from 1.39197 into 1.4001, and the last 18 hours have been sideways digestion between 1.39808 and the 1.39955 range top. NY hours produced a clean rejection at the 1.4000 round number, with price back mid-range at 1.39891 and RSI(14) near 47 — no directional edge inside the band.
Support: 1.39808, 1.39599
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.39955
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40010 round number would end the range read and extend the post-FOMC leg
A close below 1.39808 breaks the double low and exposes the 1.39599 breakout base
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT is the nearest catalyst able to break this range
Tight range under 1.4000 after post-FOMC breakout leg.
Price has spent almost 20 hours coiling between 1.39806 and the 1.4000 round number after the FOMC-driven leg up from 1.39596, with the 1.4001 print during late London rejected inside 90 minutes. NY hours are trading back at the mid-range with RSI(14) near 45 and price pinned just under EMA20 at 1.39905; ATR(14) is only ~6.5 pips, so the range is compressing rather than trending.
Support: 1.39806, 1.39596
Resistance: 1.39905, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.39806 breaks the range floor and confirms a lower low
Reclaim and hold above the 1.4000 round number would end the rejection read
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT is the nearest print able to move this range
Range 1.3981-1.4001, first lower high after session high.
The FOMC bar late in yesterday's NY session drove price from 1.3934 to 1.3993, and the last 18 hours have been flat consolidation between roughly 1.3981 and the session high at 1.40010, printed just under the 1.4000 figure at the London-NY transition. Rejection there and a slide into the 12:30 GMT US claims/Philly Fed window pushed price back below the 1.39890 ema20, with RSI(14) at 42 and ATR(14) around 5.4 pips.
Support: 1.39806, 1.39736
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.39955, 1.4001
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.39890 ema20 and 1.39955 prior high would put the session high at 1.40010 back in play
A close below the 1.39806 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.39736 post-fomc low
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT lands inside the next hour and can reset the intraday range
13:03 UTC
Sideways after post-FOMC leg up, momentum flat · RSI 43 · price 1.39832
Price has spent 19 hours boxed between 1.3981 and 1.4001 after yesterday's 18:00 GMT FOMC bar lifted it ~60 pips off 1.3940. NY opened with a rejection just under the 1.4000 psych figure at 1.4001, then a quick 19-pip slide into the 12:30 GMT US data slot, with the range low at 1.3981 holding for the second time today; RSI(14) at 43 and price back below EMA20 at 1.3990.
Support: 1.3981, 1.3960
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4001, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4000 psych level would end the range read and expose the 1.4015-1.4050 band
Close below the 1.3981 range low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.3960 fomc break area
US Pending Home Sales 14:00 GMT falls inside the next bar period and can re-price this range
Consolidation under 1.4000 after post-FOMC leg; false break of the figure.
The post-FOMC leg up from 1.39197 stalled all through Asia and London in a tight 1.3980–1.4000 band; the 12:00 GMT poke to 1.40010 was rejected and unwound around the 12:30 GMT US data, printing a session low at 1.39806. Price now trades back below the EMA20 at 1.39905 with RSI(14) mid-range at 47 and ATR(14) at just 5 pips — a compressed range, not a trend.
Support: 1.39808, 1.3969
Resistance: 1.39905, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40010 session high invalidates the false break read of the 1.4000 figure
Failure to hold 1.39808 session low exposes the 1.39690 fomc leg low
US Pending Home Sales 14:00 GMT falls inside the next bar period and could break the range top
Post-FOMC leg capped below 1.4000, tight range with a fresh lower low.
The post-FOMC leg stalled at the 1.40010 session high, right under the 1.4000 psych figure, and the 12:30 GMT US claims/Philly Fed slot knocked price ~19 pips to the 1.39806 session low before a partial recovery. Price is now back under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 47 and the 1.39970 range top capping; ATR(14) is only ~5 pips, so the last 18 hours have been pure consolidation above the 1.39576 fomc base.
Support: 1.39806, 1.39576
Resistance: 1.3997, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.39970 range top puts the 1.40010 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.39806 session low confirms a lower low and opens the gap back toward the 1.39576 fomc base
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT falls inside the next bars and could shift this read
12:31 UTC
Post-FOMC leg stalled, flat since · RSI 44 · price 1.39831
19-hour range 1.3981-1.4001, equal lows at the floor.
The FOMC leg from 1.3929 to 1.4001 has gone nowhere for 19 hours; the brief poke through the 1.4000 round number into the London-NY transition was rejected and price flushed 19 pips back to the 1.3981 range low, where lows are now equal. RSI(14) at 43.5 with ATR only 5.4 pips — price sits below EMA20 and EMA50, both clustered near 1.3990, and the US claims/Philly Fed cluster is landing on this bar.
Support: 1.3981, 1.3935
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4001
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.3981 breaks the range low and voids the equal-lows read
Reclaim of the 1.3995 prior highs puts the 1.4000 round number back in play
US claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC can reprice the whole intraday range within a bar or two
12:31 UTC
Post-FOMC uptrend stalled, rolling over intraday · RSI 44 · price 1.39831
18-hour range capped under 1.4000, first probe of range floor.
Yesterday's 18:00 UTC Fed hike drove the spike from 1.39197 to 1.39932, and price has since coiled in a 20-pip range with the 1.4000 round number capping every attempt, including the 1.40010 session high. The London-NY transition brought a sharp rejection off that high back to the 1.39810 range floor, price now under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.3981, 1.39576
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.3993
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.39810 breaks the range floor and confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.39930 (ema20) would put the 1.40010 session high back in play
US jobless claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC land inside the current bar and can resolve the range in either direction
Rising lows capped by 1.4001 session high; tight range since Asia.
The post-FOMC impulse off 1.39197 (18:00 UTC bar yesterday) stalled at the 1.4000 round number: the 1.40010 session high was rejected in the last hour and price is back on the EMA20 near 1.39912. Asia and London have held a 1.39808–1.40010 band with rising lows, RSI(14) near 55 and ATR(14) around 4.3 pips — no expansion yet.
Support: 1.39912, 1.39843, 1.39808
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.4000
What it said to watch
US jobless claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC lands within minutes and can break the 1.39808–1.40010 range
M15 close above the 1.40010 session high extends the post-FOMC leg beyond the round number
Loss of the 1.39843 swing low, then the 1.39808 session low, breaks the rising-lows chain
Tight range capped by 1.40010, shallow higher lows off the session low.
The post-FOMC leg off 1.39197 into 1.39932 on the Fed hike has gone sideways since, with Asia and London holding a tight band between the 1.39845 range floor and the 1.40010 range high. Price probed the 1.4000 psych level at 1.39997 in the London-NY transition and was rejected back to 1.39922; RSI(14) mid-50s and ATR(14) near 4.6 pips flag compressed intraday movement.
Support: 1.39845, 1.39808, 1.39717
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.4000
What it said to watch
US jobless claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC land inside the next bar and can break this band
M15 close above the 1.40010 range high clears the 1.4000 psych level
Loss of the 1.39845 range floor puts the 1.39808 session low back in play
Higher lows inside a tight range beneath the 1.4000 psych level.
The 17:45 UTC Fed bar gapped down to 1.39197 and ripped to 1.39944 on the hawkish hike, and price has spent the following ~18 hours consolidating in a 1.3980–1.4000 band. London has ground to a fresh session high of 1.4001 on a chain of higher lows, RSI(14) near 67 with ATR only ~4 pips — compression right under the round number.
Support: 1.3992, 1.39808, 1.39736
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.4015
What it said to watch
M15 close and hold above 1.4001 session high opens the 1.4015 supply zone
Loss of the 1.3992 rising sup line puts the 1.39808 session low back in play
US claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC lands in the next bar period and can break this compression either way
Higher lows into 1.4000, tight coil below session high.
Post-Fed USD strength drove the impulse off 1.39197 early in the window, and price has since coiled in a ~20 pip band, printing higher lows from the 1.39808 session low into the 1.4000 round number. The London-NY transition tagged a 1.40010 session high and closed just beneath it with RSI(14) near 69 and ATR only ~4 pips — a compressed grind, not an expansion.
Support: 1.39922, 1.39845, 1.39808
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number / 1.40010 session high would extend the intraday uptrend out of the coil
Loss of 1.39922 recent low exposes the 1.39845 swing low and the 1.39808 session low
US jobless claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC land inside the next bar and could break this compression either way
11:55 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flat near range top · RSI 63 · price 1.39965
Post-breakout consolidation just under 1.4000.
The FOMC hike drove a 60-pip vertical leg in the Asia-morning bars from 1.3935 to 1.3993, and price has spent the following ~18 hours coiling in a 1.3981-1.3998 band beneath the 1.4000 round number. London hours have produced a mild higher-low chain (1.3981 to 1.3990) with RSI(14) at 63 and ATR(14) just 4 pips — compressed range, no expansion yet.
Support: 1.3993, 1.3984, 1.3981
Resistance: 1.3998, 1.4000
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 1.3998/1.4000 would extend the post-FOMC breakout; repeated failure there keeps the range read intact
Loss of the 1.3984 range floor breaks the intraday higher-low chain
US claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC land within the next bars and could break this compression either way