USDCAD has trended lower all week under the ~12% crude surge, grinding from 1.4154 to a base around the 1.4005 week low, with price holding below EMA20 (~1.4030) and EMA50 on every pullback. Two probes of the 1.4005 area have held, forming a shallow double bottom, and the weekend reopen left a small gap that quickly filled back to 1.4019. RSI(14) near 45 has stabilised as downside momentum fades, but the 1.4000 psych mark and Scotiabank's 1.3974 fair value remain the pivot into Canada CPI.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000, 1.3974
Resistance: 1.4030, 1.4050, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 GMT is the next high-impact catalyst and can materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4005 week low reopens the path toward 1.3974 fair value
Reclaim of 1.4030 ema20 and 1.4050 prior sup would neutralise the downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows, basing at range floor.
USDCAD has ground lower through the week, the loonie underpinned by a ~12% oil surge that dragged the pair from 1.4150 toward the 1.4000 psych level and a one-month low near 1.4005. Price is consolidating just above that week low with RSI(14) around 43, holding below EMA20 and EMA50 as lower highs cap each bounce below 1.4077. The weekend gap left a thin Sunday open, keeping direction hostage to crude and Monday's Canada CPI.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000, 1.3974
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4077, 1.4115
What it said to watch
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 GMT is the next material catalyst for this pair
Hourly close below 1.4000 psych opens the path toward 1.3974 fair value
Reclaim of 1.4077 prior high would break the lower-high sequence
USDCAD has trended lower all week from 1.4154, pressured by a ~12% oil surge lifting CAD and a mildly balanced BoC hold. Price carved out a floor near the 1.4005 weekly low and has been consolidating in a 1.400–1.404 band, with the fresh week opening on a small bounce to 1.40228. Descending lower-highs still cap the tape while the 1.4000 psychological mark holds underneath.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4041, 1.4053
What it said to watch
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 GMT is the immediate catalyst and can break this range
Hourly close below 1.40000 confirms a lower-low extension
Reclaim of 1.40410 swing high challenges the week's descending lower-highs
USD/CAD trended lower all week from Monday's ~1.4152 open as an oil surge underpinned CAD, printing a one-month low near 1.4005. Price is consolidating just above the 1.4000 psychological mark with RSI(14) in the low 40s and price below both EMAs. The new week gapped modestly lower before recovering into the open.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4028, 1.4050, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4000 confirms continuation of lower lows
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 GMT is a high-impact catalyst that could reset this read
Reclaim above 1.4050 breaks the week's descending lower-highs
USDCAD has trended lower all week from Monday's 1.4155 open as the ~12% oil surge underpinned CAD, dragging price to a one-month low near 1.4000. The last several hours have flattened into a tight 1.4008-1.4022 consolidation just above the psych mark, with RSI(14) recovering off its lows and price still capped below EMA20 around 1.4025. Canada CPI on Monday is the next scheduled catalyst.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000, 1.3974
Resistance: 1.4025, 1.4058, 1.4100
What it said to watch
An hourly close below 1.4000 opens the path toward the 1.3974 fair-value zone
Reclaiming EMA20 near 1.4025 and the 1.4058 prior swing would break the week's lower-high sequence
Canada CPI Monday 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground lower all week, with the loonie underpinned by an oil surge that dragged the pair from 1.4155 toward the 1.4000 psych mark and a one-month low. Price is basing just above the 1.40052 swing low with RSI(14) flat in the low-40s; each NY-session bounce this week has stalled beneath a sequence of lower highs. The pair sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the down-structure intact.
Support: 1.40052, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40217, 1.40377, 1.40577
What it said to watch
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 GMT is the next high-impact catalyst and could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.40000 confirms continuation and exposes the psych zone break
Reclaim of 1.40377 prior high would break the lower-highs sequence