Late Asia/NY transition on thin volume, USDCAD grinding lower after rejection at the 1.41657 session high, now hugging the 1.41507 session low. CAD failed to capitalise on yesterday's hot CPI as core readings kept the BoC story patient; M15 is a tight chop between 1.41507 and 1.41657 with RSI mid-range near 44.
Support: 1.41507, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41628, 1.41657
What it said to watch
Close below 1.41507 confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.41437
Reclaim of 1.41657 negates the lower-high sequence
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift the CAD read
23:46 UTC
Downtrend stalling into range · RSI 44 · price 1.41561
Ranging near session lows, low Asia volume.
USDCAD pulled back off the 1.4193 day high and is now chopping between 1.4148 and 1.4165 in thin Asia-hours volume. Price sits just below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) mid-range; no directional structure in play after the earlier slide.
Support: 1.41488, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41652, 1.4177
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41652 reopens the 1.41770 swing high
Break below 1.41488 exposes the 1.41437 swing low
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Pullback, now ranging · RSI 43 · price 1.41557
Asia range after NY fade from 1.4193.
Thin late-Asia trade chopping between 1.4150 and 1.4168 after NY faded the 1.4193 14-month high back to a 1.41437 low. USDCAD sits mid-range below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) neutral near 43; no setup in play, the inflation-beat fade keeps the pair heavy but supported.
Support: 1.4150, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4168, 1.41776, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41437 confirms a lower-low and reopens 1.4130 support
Reclaim of 1.41680 puts the 1.41776 session high back in play
BoC Macklem 13:00 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD pulled back from the 1.4193 session high and is now chopping between 1.4150 and 1.4165 through quiet Asia hours, volumes thin. RSI(14) near 46, no momentum either way; the pair holds near 14-month highs as the hot CAD CPI beat continues to be faded.
Support: 1.41488, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41488 confirms a fresh lower-low and opens 1.41437
Reclaim of 1.41650 puts the 1.41762 swing high back in play
BoC Macklem 13:00 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC could break the range
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, drifting into Asia · RSI 39 · price 1.41514
Lower highs, pressing session low.
USDCAD drifted lower through late NY into thin Asia liquidity, slipping back under 1.4160 and probing the 1.41500 psych level after the hot CAD CPI beat was faded. Price is grinding toward the 1.41437 session low with RSI(14) near 38, structure capped by a descending chain of lower highs.
Support: 1.41437, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4160
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41437 confirms a lower low and extends the slide
Reclaim of 1.41600 needed to break the lower-high sequence
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC is the next CAD catalyst
USDCAD drifted lower through the Asia session, slipping back toward the 1.41488 session low after rejection at the 1.41762 intraday high. Price sits below EMA20/50 with a chain of lower highs; the broad uptrend that printed a fresh 14-month high at 1.4193 has stalled into thin late-session liquidity, RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.41488, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41631, 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41437 confirms a fresh lower low and extends the slide
Reclaim of 1.41631 negates the lower-high sequence
BoC Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground lower through late NY into thin overnight trade, posting a fresh leg to 1.41514 just above the 1.4150 round number. Lower highs have stacked since the 1.41776 bounce and RSI(14) sits near 30 as price probes the swing low at 1.41472. CAD shrugged off yesterday's hot CPI print, keeping the pair heavy.
Support: 1.4150, 1.41472, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.41776
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41437 confirms a lower low and extends the down leg
Reclaim of 1.41650 breaks the lower-high sequence
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground lower through the Asia session on thin volume, slipping to a session low at 1.41488 with price below both EMAs. CAD stayed heavy after yesterday's hot-but-energy-led CPI was faded; RSI(14) near 40, room before oversold.
Support: 1.41488, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4163
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41437 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.41630 needed to ease the downside drift
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC is the key near-term CAD catalyst
22:46 UTC
Off the high, drifting lower · RSI 44 · price 1.41596
Range after sweep, lower highs.
USDCAD faded from the 1.41930 day high and swept the 1.41437 spike low before recovering into a 1.41488–1.41680 range; CAD shrugged off yesterday's hot CPI, keeping the pair pinned near 14-month highs. Thin late-Asia volume now, RSI(14) mid-range, lower highs capping below 1.41680.
Support: 1.41488, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4168, 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41680 reopens the 1.41762 swing high
Loss of 1.41488 confirms a lower-low toward 1.41437
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could shift this read
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, now consolidating · RSI 46 · price 1.41596
Lower highs, ranging near lows.
USDCAD slid off the 1.4193 prior high and is now grinding sideways between 1.4150 and 1.4166 in thin late-session trade. The hot CAD CPI beat yesterday was faded, leaving price pinned just below EMA20/50 with RSI mid-range.
Support: 1.41488, 1.41437, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4166, 1.41714, 1.4193
What it said to watch
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.41437 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.41714 negates the lower-high structure
22:31 UTC
Pullback after intraday selloff, now flat · RSI 44 · price 1.41596
Ranging in lower half of day's range.
USDCAD sold off through the NY session from the 1.4193 high to a 1.41437 day low, then chopped sideways between 1.4150 and 1.4170; this despite a hot CAD CPI beat, with the pair pinned near 14-month highs. Late NY, price idles at 1.41596 below EMA20/50, RSI(14) neutral near 44 — no setup in play.
Support: 1.41488, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4170
What it said to watch
Close below 1.41437 day low confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of 1.41700 swing high reopens the upper range
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC is the key CAD catalyst for this read
22:31 UTC
Downtrend stalling, range forming · RSI 44 · price 1.41596
Consolidating after intraday drop and bounce.
Price swept down to 1.41437 mid-window then snapped back to 1.41762, and has since drifted into a tight 1.41535-1.41657 range on thinning late-session volume. Sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) mid-40s; no momentum either way as the Loonie holds near 14-month lows.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41488, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41657, 1.41712, 1.41762
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41657 reopens the 1.41712-1.41762 zone
Break below 1.41488 confirms a lower low toward 1.41437
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Downtrend faded, now ranging · RSI 51 · price 1.41625
Range after NY decline, mid-range.
NY session sold USDCAD off the 1.4193 high down to 1.41437, and price has since stalled at the 38.2% retrace near 1.41625. Trade is now ranging 1.41488-1.41680 in thin early-Asia volume with RSI mid-range and no setup in play.
Support: 1.41488, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4168, 1.41762
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41680 swing high reopens the 1.41762 prior high
Failure to hold 1.41488 session low exposes the 1.41437 swing low
BoC Macklem (Tue 13:00 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Downtrend off 1.4193, now ranging · RSI 49 · price 1.41625
Lower highs, basing near session lows.
USDCAD sold off from 1.4193 to a 1.4144 session low, then chopped back into a 1.4156–1.4170 range; current 1.41625 sits on EMA20, RSI flat near 49. CPI beat failed to lift CAD and the pair is basing just under recent swing highs.
Support: 1.4156, 1.4144
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.41762
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41700 reopens 1.41762 range high
Loss of 1.41560 swing low exposes 1.41440 session low
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC is the key CAD catalyst that could break this range
USDCAD faded from the 1.4193 intraday high toward the 1.4150s after the hot CPI beat failed to lift CAD, then carved a lower-high chain. Into the thin late-NY/Asia handover volume has dried up and price is basing around 1.4160 just under the 1.41700 swing high, holding above the 1.41507 session low.
Support: 1.41507, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4170
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.41700 swing high would break the lower-high chain
Loss of 1.41507 session low reopens the 1.41437 day low
BoC Macklem (Tue 13:00 UTC) and US PMIs are the next catalysts that could shift this read
22:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend stalling into range · RSI 45 · price 1.41625
Lower highs since 1.4193, basing near 1.4160.
USDCAD rolled off the 1.4193 prior high through London and has carved a series of lower highs into thin late-Asia trade, now coiling in a 1.4156–1.4166 range. The hot Canadian CPI beat was shrugged off as the pair leans on the Fed-BoC rate gap; volumes have collapsed (sub-50) into the session handover, capping range expansion.
Support: 1.4156, 1.41488, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41657, 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41657 recent high opens the path back to the 1.41762 swing high
Loss of 1.41560 session low exposes the 1.41488 swing low
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC is the key CAD catalyst that could break this range
21:46 UTC
Pulled back from highs, drifting lower · RSI 43 · price 1.41558
Lower highs, ranging near session lows.
London/NY pushed USDCAD to a fresh 14-month high at 1.4193 before fading; the hot Canadian CPI beat gave CAD no lasting traction as USD strength dominated. Asia session is thin and drifting near 1.4156, holding a sequence of lower highs below the 1.4176 cap with the 1.4150 session low close beneath.
Support: 1.4150, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Break below 1.4150 session low exposes the 1.4144 spike low
M15 close back above 1.4176 negates the lower-high sequence
Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) is the next CAD risk event
21:46 UTC
Downtrend off 1.4193, slowing near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.41558
Lower highs, consolidating above session low.
USDCAD faded from the 1.4193 14-month high through the NY session and is now grinding along session lows near 1.4156, RSI(14) mid-40s. The hot CAD CPI beat gave little lasting support; price holds a lower-high chain, with the 1.41507 low capping the downside on thin late-session volume.
Support: 1.41507, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4168
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41437 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.41680 needed to ease the downside drift
Thin late-session liquidity can exaggerate moves into Asia open
21:31 UTC
Pullback from highs, now ranging · RSI 45 · price 1.41588
Lower highs off 1.4193, consolidating mid-range.
USDCAD rolled off the 1.4193 high through NY hours and is now ranging 1.4150–1.4165 in thin late-session trade, price below EMA20/50. Sellers capped the bounce at 1.41657; RSI(14) near 44 with no momentum extreme in play.
Support: 1.41507, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41657, 1.41762
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41657 reopens the path toward the 1.41762 intraday high
Loss of the 1.41507 session low confirms a lower low toward 1.41437
21:31 UTC
Pulled back off highs, now ranging · RSI 45 · price 1.41588
Consolidation in lower half after rejection at 1.4193.
USDCAD was rejected at the 1.4193 14-month high during NY hours and sold off to 1.4144 before stabilising. Asia session is quiet, drifting between 1.4155 and 1.4166 with RSI neutral and price holding under EMA20/50.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41657, 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41657 reopens the 1.41762 bounce high
USDCAD has eased back from the 1.4193 14-month high, now consolidating between 1.4150 and 1.4170 with price under EMA20 and EMA50. RSI(14) near 43 after the sharp mid-window flush to 1.4437; late-session volume is thin and the swing-high cluster around 1.4166 is capping bounces.
Support: 1.41507, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41657, 1.41712
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.41507 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.4144 session low
Reclaim of 1.41657 puts the 1.4171 swing back in play
Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) is the next CAD risk and could shift this read
USDCAD faded from the 1.4193 session high into a 1.4150–1.4165 range, with the recovery to 1.4176 capped and sellers pressing back below 1.4160 in thin late-NY/Asia hours. CAD found no traction from the hot CPI beat as the Fed-BoC rate-gap narrative kept the loonie offered; price now mid-range with RSI near 43.
Support: 1.41507, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.41712, 1.41762
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.41507 session low confirms a lower-low toward 1.4144 day low
Reclaim of 1.41650 recent high reopens the 1.41712 swing high
BoC Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) is the next CAD risk event
21:02 UTC
Pullback from highs, now ranging · RSI 44 · price 1.41579
Range after rejection from 1.4193.
USDCAD was rejected from the 1.4193 14-month high mid-window and sold off sharply to 1.41437, then chopped sideways. Price now drifts at the lower end of a 1.4153–1.4166 range, sitting below EMA20/50 with RSI near 44.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41657, 1.41762
What it said to watch
Close below 1.41535 reopens the 1.41437 swing low
Reclaim of 1.41657 puts 1.41762 back in play
BoC Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) could shift the read
USDCAD pulled back from the day's 1.4193 high and has chopped between 1.41535 and 1.41712 since, with a string of lower highs into 1.41656. Price is pressing the lower end of that range at 1.4158 with RSI in the low 40s; CAD got no lasting lift from yesterday's hot CPI.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41712
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41535 opens the 1.41437 session low
Reclaim of 1.41712 needed to negate the lower-high sequence
BoC Macklem and US flash PMIs ahead are the next catalysts
20:46 UTC
Off the highs, drifting lower · RSI 47 · price 1.41616
Ranging below session high after pullback.
USDCAD pulled back from the 1.4193 14-month high earlier in the window and is now consolidating 1.4153–1.4165 in late NY hours, hugging EMA20. Sharp drop into the 1.4144 session low was bought back, but recovery stalled below the 1.4176 session high.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41762 reopens the 1.4193 high
Close below 1.41535 exposes the 1.4144 session low
Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) are next catalysts
20:46 UTC
Pullback from intraday high, now consolidating · RSI 46 · price 1.41616
Lower highs since 1.4193, basing near 1.4156.
USDCAD rejected the 14-month high near 1.4193 and slid to a 1.4144 swing low before basing; price now coils between 1.4155 and 1.4168, holding the 38.2% retrace of that drop. Momentum flat with RSI near 46 and price under EMA20/50 as the session winds down on thin volume.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4168, 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4168 reopens the 1.4176 bounce high
Loss of 1.4153 exposes the 1.4144 swing low
Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) is the next catalyst for CAD
20:31 UTC
Pullback from highs, now ranging · RSI 47 · price 1.41612
Lower highs off 1.4193, consolidating.
USDCAD rolled off the 14-month high at 1.4193 during the London-NY session and is now consolidating 1.41535-1.41700 into the late session, RSI(14) neutral near 46. The hot CAD CPI beat gave little lasting support; price sits just under EMA20/50 after retracing ~35% of the 1.4193-1.41437 drop.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.4177
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41700 reopens the 1.41770 prior high
Break below 1.41535 swing low exposes the 1.41437 session low
Macklem commentary / Fed-BoC rate-gap headlines could shift this read
20:31 UTC
Drifting lower off the high · RSI 45 · price 1.41612
Lower highs, tight range.
USDCAD has eased back from the 14-month high near 1.4193 and is grinding lower in a 1.4155–1.4170 band, holding below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) flat near 44. The hot Canada CPI gave the loonie little lasting traction; price is coiling above the 1.41535 swing low into the late NY session.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41702
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41535 confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.4150/1.41437
Reclaim of 1.41702 puts the high back in play
BoC Macklem speech ahead is a high-impact catalyst that could shift this read
USDCAD rolled off the 1.4193 14-month high through the NY session and now grinds sideways between 1.4153 and 1.4170, holding below EMA20/50. RSI(14) near 42 after the slide, no extreme; loonie still offered on the Fed-BoC rate gap despite yesterday's hot CPI.
Support: 1.4153, 1.4144
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.4188
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4153 exposes the 1.4144 swing low
Reclaim of 1.4170 reopens the 1.4188 session high
Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) could shift this read
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session off the 1.4193 14-month high, now pinned near 1.4159 with a chain of lower highs. Price has consolidated between 1.4153 and 1.4168, sitting just above the swing low after the broad USD bid lost intraday steam.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4168
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41535 confirms a fresh lower low toward 1.41437
Reclaim of 1.41680 negates the lower-high sequence
USDCAD rejected the 1.41930 session high and printed lower highs through NY hours, now consolidating between 1.41535 and the 1.41660 range top into late session. RSI(14) sits mid-range with no extreme; the tape stays USD-bid after yesterday's hot Canadian CPI failed to lift the loonie.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4166, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41535 opens a retest of the 1.41437 session low
Reclaim of 1.41660 range top needed to break the lower-high sequence
BoC Macklem speech later in the week is the next CAD catalyst
Late NY hours drifting lower in a string of lower highs from 1.41702, with price pinned just above the 1.41535 swing low. The hot Canadian CPI gave the loonie no lasting traction earlier, and USDCAD has bled off the 1.4193 day high into a tight consolidation near 1.4159.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41657, 1.41702
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41535 confirms a lower low and opens 1.41437
Close back above 1.41702 negates the descending lower-high read
Late NY session: USDCAD sold off from the 1.4193 high after the hotter Canadian CPI beat, spiking down to 1.41437 before recovering to 1.41762. Price is now drifting lower again, capped by lower highs near 1.41712, with buyers stepping in around the 1.41535 session low.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41712, 1.41762
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41712 reopens the 1.41762 recovery high
Loss of 1.41535 session low exposes the 1.41437 cpi low
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC is the next CAD catalyst
USDCAD swept lower to 1.41437 on the hotter Canadian CPI beat (3.2% vs 3.0%), then recovered into a 1.4155–1.4170 range. Price now ticks at 1.41621, sitting just under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI mid-range — no momentum impulse in play.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41702, 1.41776
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41535 confirms a lower-low toward the cpi low at 1.41437
Close above 1.41702 swing high reopens 1.41776
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read after the CPI beat
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 42 · price 1.4160
Lower highs, basing above session low.
USDCAD sold off into early NY hours after the hot Canadian CPI beat, printing a session low at 1.41437 before a sharp bounce to 1.41762. Price has since retraced roughly half that move and is drifting back toward 1.416, RSI(14) mid-range and capped under the descending highs.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4168, 1.41762
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41535 swing low reopens the 1.41437 session low
Reclaim of the 1.4168 pivot and 1.41762 bounce high would break the lower-high sequence
BoC Macklem speech tomorrow 13:00 UTC could materially shift the CAD read
USDCAD rejected the 14-month high at 1.4193 and has carved lower highs through the NY session, now drifting at 1.4160 below both EMAs after the hotter Canadian CPI beat. Price is grinding toward the 1.4153 session low with RSI(14) near 40, momentum soft but not extreme.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.41712, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Close below 1.41535 confirms continuation toward the 1.4143 swing low
Reclaim of 1.41712 negates the lower-high sequence
Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.4193 peak, pressing session low.
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4193 session high after the hotter Canadian CPI print and is grinding to session lows near 1.4156, posting a chain of lower highs. Price sits below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) around 41; ATR has compressed to ~6 pips into the late NY drift.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41677, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41677 breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.41535 confirms continuation toward the 1.41437 swing low
BoC Macklem (Tue 13:00 UTC) and US PMIs (Tue 13:45 UTC) could reset this read
Hotter Canadian CPI sparked a volatility burst into the 1.41535 low before a snap recovery to 1.41762; since then USDCAD has carved a chain of lower highs through the NY afternoon and is now retesting that low. Price sits around the 61.8% retrace of the 1.41437–1.41776 leg with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4168, 1.41762
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41535 confirms continuation toward 1.41437
USDCAD drifted off the 1.4193 high all session, with the hot Canadian CPI giving CAD a rare bid; price is now stalling just above the 1.41535 swing low. Each bounce has capped lower (1.41762, then 1.41714) and RSI sits sub-40 as the late-NY tape thins out.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41472
Resistance: 1.4168, 1.41762
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41535 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.41680 would challenge the lower-high sequence
Macklem and US flash PMIs Tue could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, drifting into lows · RSI 38 · price 1.41567
Lower highs since 1.4193, basing above 1.4154.
USDCAD rolled off the 1.4193 14-month high after the hot Canadian CPI injected two-way risk, and is now grinding lower highs into the NY session close. Price sits just above the 1.41535 swing low with RSI(14) near 38; supply has capped each bounce around the declining 1.41680 pivot.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4168
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41535 confirms a lower low toward 1.41437
Reclaim of 1.41680 needed to negate the lower-high sequence
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Downtrend off the high, momentum fading · RSI 41 · price 1.41593
Lower highs after rejection from 1.4193.
USDCAD has bled off the 1.4193 session high into late NY, the hot Canadian CPI earlier injecting two-way risk after eight sessions of one-way upside. Price is carving lower highs and now drifting at 1.4159 on thinning volume, holding above the 1.41437 session low.
Support: 1.41519, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4168, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Close below 1.41437 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.41680 needed to break the lower-high sequence
BoC Macklem (Tue 13:00 UTC) and US PMIs are the next catalysts to shift this read
Lower highs into late NY, drifting off the 1.4193 high.
USDCAD has bled lower through the NY session after rejecting the 1.4193 14-month high, printing a chain of lower highs back to 1.41591. The hot Canadian May CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%) earlier capped the stretched rally and is keeping a two-way tone; price now sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.41519, 1.41472
Resistance: 1.41712, 1.4188
What it said to watch
Close below 1.41519 confirms a fresh lower low and extends the slide toward 1.41472
Recovery above 1.41712 negates the short-term downtrend
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Faded from 1.4193, consolidating below recent highs.
USDCAD faded from the 14-month high at 1.4193 after the hot Canadian CPI, sweeping down to 1.4144 before recovering to 1.4176. Price now drifts lower into 1.4161, holding below EMA20/50 with RSI mid-range; recent action is a tight consolidation between 1.4150 and 1.4170.
Support: 1.41519, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41702, 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Macklem speech (13:00 GMT) is a high-impact CAD risk that could shift this read
Close below 1.41437 confirms a lower low and reopens the downside
Reclaim of 1.41762 puts the 1.4193 high back in play
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4193 session high after the hot Canadian CPI, sweeping down to 1.4144 before a choppy bounce to 1.4176 faded. Price is now grinding lower into the back half of NY, pinned near 1.4160 with RSI(14) mid-range and rejections capping each push toward 1.4171.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41472
Resistance: 1.41712, 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.41535 confirms continuation toward the 1.41472 low
M15 close back above 1.41712 negates the lower-high sequence
Macklem speech could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Consolidating lower after CPI-driven drop · RSI 44 · price 1.41608
Range-bound below session highs, drifting to lows.
USDCAD sold off sharply to 1.41437 around the hot Canada CPI print (3.2% YoY), then recovered to 1.41762 before fading back through the late NY session. Price now drifts at 1.41608 inside the post-spike range, RSI(14) mid-40s and below both EMAs.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41702, 1.41762
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41535 reopens the 1.41437 session low
Reclaim of 1.41702 swing high would negate the lower-drift read
Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
Lower highs into late NY, holding above swing low.
USDCAD faded from the 1.4193 high after the hot Canada CPI print, with a sharp flush to 1.41437 then a choppy recovery that has since stalled. Price is drifting lower into the late NY session below EMA20/50, carving lower highs while holding above the 1.41535 swing low; RSI(14) mid-40s, no extreme.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41712
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41535 opens a retest of the 1.41437 session low
Reclaim of 1.41712 needed to repair the lower-high sequence
Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Pullback, lower highs · RSI 42 · price 1.41608
Ranging below recovery high after drop.
USDCAD pulled back from the 1.4193 session high and is grinding lower into the late NY hours at 1.41608, printing lower highs after the hot Canada CPI gave CAD a reason to push back. Price is hovering around the 50% retrace of the 1.41437–1.41762 recovery leg; RSI mid-range, no momentum extreme.
Support: 1.41516, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41714, 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Close below 1.41516 opens the 1.41437 session low
Reclaim of 1.41714 needed to challenge 1.41762 recovery high
Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
NY session grinding lower after rejection at the 1.4193 14-month high, with the hot CAD CPI beat undercutting the dollar bid. Price coils near 1.41608 below EMA20/50, RSI(14) mid-range; lower highs intact since the 1.4193 print.
Support: 1.41472
Resistance: 1.4170
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41700 negates the lower-high chain
Break of 1.41472 confirms a fresh lower low
BoC Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
17:46 UTC
Pullback off session high, now flat · RSI 46 · price 1.41648
Ranging after sharp CPI drop and recovery.
USDCAD sold off hard into the session, sweeping to 1.41437 as Canada's hotter June CPI (3.2% vs 3% f/c) handed the Loonie a bid. Price snapped back to 1.41762 but has since stalled, drifting sideways near 1.4165 with RSI(14) neutral around 46.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41472
Resistance: 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.41762 bounce high would reopen the 1.41930 session high
Loss of 1.41592 swing low exposes the 1.41472 session low
BoC Macklem commentary on sticky CPI could reset this range
17:46 UTC
Choppy, no clear direction · RSI 47 · price 1.41648
Ranging after recovery off session low.
USDCAD flushed to a session low at 1.41437 on the hotter-than-forecast Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%), then snapped back to the 1.41762 session high before fading. Now ranging 1.41590–1.41710 with RSI near 47, no setup in play.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41519, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41712, 1.41762
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41592 reopens the 1.41519/1.41437 lows
Close above 1.41712 swing high targets the 1.41762 session high
Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Pulled back, now consolidating · RSI 48 · price 1.41671
Range after sharp drop and recovery.
USDCAD spiked down to 1.41437 on the hot Canadian CPI print then snapped back above 1.4175, fully recovering the move. Price is now ranging between 1.4159 and 1.4171 with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR around 11 pips — no clean setup in play.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41472, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41712, 1.41776, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41712 reopens the 1.41776 session high then 1.4193
Loss of 1.41592 exposes the 1.41472 session low again
Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC is the next major CAD risk for this read
17:31 UTC
Pullback from highs, consolidating · RSI 46 · price 1.41671
Range after rejection off 1.4193.
USD/CAD was knocked off its 14-month high near 1.4193 after a hotter Canadian CPI print (3.2% vs 3% f/c), then sliced to 1.4144 before recovering. Late NY hours now show choppy consolidation between ~1.4159 and 1.4177, RSI mid-range and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41472, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4177, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41770 reopens the 1.41930 session high
Close below 1.41535 exposes the 1.41437 range floor
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC is the next catalyst for this read
17:16 UTC
Pullback off highs, recovering · RSI 46 · price 1.41643
Ranging after CPI flush, lower highs into close.
Hotter Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3% f/c) drove a sharp CAD bid around 12:00 UTC, flushing USDCAD to 1.41437 before buyers recovered it to 1.41762. Since then price has rolled into lower highs and is now ranging near 1.4164, RSI(14) neutral at ~46.
Support: 1.41507, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.41762 recovery high reopens the 1.4193 day high
Break below 1.41507 swing low exposes the 1.41437 session low
BoC's Macklem speech tomorrow 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Pullback from highs, consolidating · RSI 46 · price 1.41643
Lower highs after 1.4193 rejection, ranging 1.4159–1.4171.
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high and sold off sharply into 1.41437 after a hotter-than-expected Canada CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%) gave CAD a fundamental bid. Price has since recovered to drift in a 1.4159–1.4171 range, RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41472, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41712, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Break below 1.41592 reopens the 1.41437 cpi low
Close above 1.41712 swing high negates the lower-high sequence
Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Choppy, recovered off lows · RSI 47 · price 1.41643
Consolidating after CPI drop and snap-back.
NY afternoon: USD/CAD dropped ~45 pips into 1.41437 around midday as a hot Canada CPI print (3.2% vs 3.0%) lifted CAD, then snapped straight back to 1.41762 before stalling. Price now consolidates near 1.4164 with RSI neutral and ATR cooled to ~10 pips.
Support: 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41762, 1.4188
What it said to watch
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Close below 1.41437 resumes the slide
Reclaim of 1.41762 needed to re-challenge 1.41880
17:02 UTC
Down then recovered, now ranging · RSI 46 · price 1.41643
Rebound off CPI low, capped below 1.41712.
Hotter Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%) drove a sharp NY-session flush to 1.41437 before buyers reclaimed the move back to 1.41776. Price has since faded into a 1.41592–1.41712 range, holding just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41472, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41712, 1.41776
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41592 reopens the swing low at 1.41472
Reclaim of 1.41712 swing high needed to retest the 1.41776 rebound high
BoC Macklem speech tomorrow could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Choppy, no clear direction after CPI drop · RSI 49 · price 1.4165
Range-bound following sharp CPI selloff.
Hot Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3% f/c) drove USD/CAD down from ~1.4188 to sweep 1.4144 before a snap recovery to 1.4176. Price has since chopped between 1.4144 and 1.4176, sitting mid-range near 1.4165 with RSI flat around 49.
Support: 1.4144
Resistance: 1.4176, 1.4188
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4176 reopens the path to 1.4188
Loss of 1.4144 confirms a lower-low and extends the CPI selloff
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Ranging, no clear direction · RSI 47 · price 1.4165
Consolidation after sweep of session low.
USD/CAD chopping mid-range near 1.4165 after a hot Canadian CPI print (3.2% vs 3.0%) sparked a sweep of the 1.41437 low followed by a recovery to 1.4178. Range between 1.41437 and 1.4180 still intact, RSI(14) neutral around 47.
Support: 1.4150, 1.41437, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4180, 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
BoC Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.41437 confirms a lower low
Close above 1.4180 reopens 1.4193 then the 1.4200 psych level
Ranging 1.41440–1.41770 after CPI drop and bounce.
USDCAD sold off into 1.41437 around the hot Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%) before snapping back to 1.41762, and has since settled into a 1.41440–1.41770 range. Price holds just above EMA20 but below EMA50 with RSI near 48 — no directional edge in the last hours.
Support: 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4177
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41437 reopens the downside post-CPI
Break above 1.41770 session high needed to reassert the prior uptrend
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD sold off sharply during NY hours after the hot Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%), spiking down to 1.41437 before buyers reclaimed the move back to 1.41776. Price now ranges around 1.4167 between the swing low at 1.41472 and the session high at 1.41776, RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.41472, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41716, 1.41776
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.41472 reopens the cpi low at 1.41437
Reclaim of 1.41776 resumes the recovery higher
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD flushed to a session low of 1.41437 around the 12:30 UTC hot Canadian CPI print (3.2% vs 3.0%), then snapped back, now hovering near the 50% retrace of the 1.41930-1.41437 drop. NY session is consolidating between the swing low at 1.41519 and the recent high at 1.41762, RSI(14) flat near 49 after the spike.
Support: 1.41519, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41762 reopens the path to session high 1.41930
Failure to hold 1.41519 reasserts the CPI-driven slide toward 1.41437
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Range after volatile drop · RSI 52 · price 1.41678
Ranging 1.4147-1.4176 post-CPI.
Hotter Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3%) knocked USDCAD from the session highs to 1.41437, then a sharp snapback retook 1.41762 before fading. Price now mid-range near 1.4168 with RSI(14) neutral around 52 — no directional structure in play.
Support: 1.41472, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41762
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41762 reopens the session high
Failure to hold 1.41472 confirms a lower-low toward 1.41437
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Choppy, recovering after sharp drop · RSI 49 · price 1.41678
Range-bound after a sweep of session lows.
USDCAD sold off sharply during NY hours to 1.41437 then bounced, with buyers stepping in twice near 1.41472/1.41507 and price reclaiming the 50% retrace of the drop at ~1.41680. Now ranging 1.41507–1.41762; the hot Canada CPI print (3.2% vs 3.0%) gave the loonie its counter to the broader USD bid. RSI(14) flat near 49, no momentum edge.
Support: 1.41507, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41762 reopens the path toward 1.41930
Loss of 1.41437 confirms a fresh session low
BoC Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Rolled off highs, choppy · RSI 48 · price 1.41678
Range after lower high.
USDCAD broke down from the 1.4193 session high after the hot Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3%) handed CAD a bid, slicing to 1.41437 before buyers recovered the move. Price now churns mid-range near 1.4168, RSI flat around 48, capped under 1.41760.
Support: 1.4147, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4176, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41760 reopens 1.41900
Failure to hold 1.41437 confirms a lower-low
Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Hot Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3%) around the 12:30 UTC print snapped USD/CAD down from the 1.4193 day high to 1.41437 as CAD firmed. Pair is grinding back to 1.41635 in NY hours, RSI(14) lifting off the post-drop low; ATR near 11 pips.
Support: 1.41472, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41718, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.41718 pre-cpi level would unwind the CPI breakdown
Failure to hold 1.41472 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) is the next CAD risk for this read
Lower highs since 1.4193, post-CPI low at 1.41437.
Canadian CPI beat (3.2% vs 3%) at 12:30 UTC sparked a sharp drop to 1.41437, snapping the prior rally. Price has since recovered to 1.4163 but remains capped under 1.41762 with lower highs intact since the 1.4193 session peak.
Support: 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41762 negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.41437 confirms a fresh intraday low
BoC Macklem speech tomorrow 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Rejection at 1.41776, pressing toward session low.
Hot Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%) near 12:30 UTC knocked USD/CAD off the 1.4193 session high, sweeping down to 1.41437 before a snap-back to 1.41776. Sellers returned there, leaving a lower high; price now 1.41593 grinding back toward the session low.
Support: 1.41437, 1.41472
Resistance: 1.41776, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41776 invalidates the lower-high read
Break below 1.41437 confirms a lower low
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, post-CPI chop · RSI 44 · price 1.41593
Lower highs since 1.4193, chopping above session low.
USDCAD rolled off the 1.4193 session high and broke lower into the 1.4144 session low as the hotter Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3% f/c) drew CAD bids. Price is now chopping between 1.4151 and the 1.4176 post-CPI rebound high, RSI(14) mid-range near 43.
Support: 1.41507, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41762, 1.4188
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41437 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.41762 negates the post-CPI downside read
Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum heavy · RSI 37 · price 1.41489
Lower highs and lower lows since CPI.
USDCAD turned lower after the hot Canadian CPI beat (3.2% vs 3%) at 12:30 UTC, peeling off session highs near 1.4193 and breaking down through 1.4170. The bounce to 1.41762 was rejected and price is now grinding fresh lower lows into 1.41489, RSI(14) sub-40.
Support: 1.41437, 1.4140
Resistance: 1.4160, 1.41762, 1.4188
What it said to watch
Hold of 1.41437 session low keeps the lower-low sequence in play; a close below opens 1.41400
Reclaim of 1.41600 would stall the post-CPI decline
Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) is the next catalyst that could shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower lows into NY · RSI 37 · price 1.41489
Stair-step lower, pressing session low.
USDCAD rolled over after the hot Canadian CPI beat (3.2% vs 3%), with the 1.41776 high rejected and price grinding lower to 1.41489. Lower-high, lower-low chain intact and RSI(14) sub-40, sitting just above the 1.41437 swing low.
Support: 1.41437, 1.4140
Resistance: 1.4160, 1.41776
What it said to watch
Close below 1.41437 confirms continuation lower toward 1.41400
Reclaim of 1.41600 neutralises the lower-high structure
Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 39 · price 1.41489
Lower highs, lower lows.
CAD bid after the hot Canada CPI print (3.2% vs 3.0%) drove USD/CAD lower through 1.41535 into the NY session, with a bounce to 1.41762 rejected before a fresh leg down to 1.41489. Structure is a clean run of lower highs/lower lows, RSI(14) hovering in the high-30s with ATR near 11 pips.
Support: 1.41437, 1.4140
Resistance: 1.41577, 1.41686, 1.41762
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.41686 would stall the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.41437 confirms continuation lower
Macklem commentary on hot CPI could materially shift this read
USDCAD rolled over through the NY session after today's hot Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%), sliding from the 1.4193 high to a fresh session low at 1.41437. A bounce to 1.41762 was rejected and price is grinding back toward the lows, RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.41437, 1.4140
Resistance: 1.4160, 1.41762
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41437 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.41600 swing pivot would stall the downside
BoC Macklem speech (13:00 UTC) is the key CAD catalyst and could shift this read
14:46 UTC
Pullback within choppy range · RSI 43 · price 1.41557
Swept session low, snapped back, now mid-range.
Hot Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%) drove USD/CAD down through the session low to 1.41437 before a sharp snap-back to 1.41776. Price has since faded to 1.41557, sitting near the 0.618 retrace of that bounce with RSI mid-range.
USDCAD knifed lower to 1.41437 on the hot Canadian CPI beat (3.2% vs 3.0%), then snapped back to 1.41762 before fading again into NY hours. Price sits mid-range near 1.4156, below EMA20/50, with ATR(14) elevated at ~85 pips on the volatility.
Support: 1.41519, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41762 reopens 1.4193 and negates the fade
Loss of 1.41437 confirms a fresh session low
BoC Macklem (Tue 13:00 UTC) is the next CAD catalyst — could reshape this read
USDCAD slid off the 1.4190 area as CAD firmed on the hot Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%); a sharp flush to 1.41437 was bought back to 1.41762 before fading. Price now consolidates near 1.4159 below EMA20/50, RSI mid-40s after the volatile swing.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41762, 1.4188
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41437 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.41762 reopens the 1.41880 prior high
BoC Macklem speech is the key near-term CAD catalyst and could shift this read
14:31 UTC
Choppy, recent lower high · RSI 45 · price 1.41591
Intraday range, faded off session highs.
USDCAD spiked lower toward 1.41437 on the hot Canadian CPI print, then snapped back to 1.41762 before fading to 1.41591 during NY hours. RSI is mid-range and price is back below EMA20/50; pair is rotating roughly between 1.41440 and 1.41820 with no clean directional break.
Support: 1.41437, 1.41519
Resistance: 1.41762, 1.41819, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41437 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.41820 reopens the 1.41930 session high
Macklem speech tomorrow could materially shift the CAD read
14:16 UTC
Uptrend stalled, pulling back · RSI 45 · price 1.4167
Rejection from highs, sweep low then snap-back.
USDCAD printed a fresh 14-month high near 1.4193 then sold off through the NY session, sweeping down to 1.4144 — coinciding with the hot Canadian CPI print (3.2% vs 3.0%) — before a sharp snap-back to 1.4176. Now consolidating around 1.4167 between the session low and the swing high, RSI cooled back to mid-range.
Support: 1.4144
Resistance: 1.4176, 1.4193
What it said to watch
BoC Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC is a high-impact CAD catalyst that could shift this read
M15 close below 1.4144 confirms a lower low and reopens the downside
Reclaim of 1.4193 re-establishes the high
14:16 UTC
Choppy, off the highs · RSI 47 · price 1.4167
Spike low swept then reclaimed, now ranging.
USDCAD spiked down to 1.4144 then snapped straight back to 1.4176, a sweep of the lows as the hot Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%) acted as a counterweight to the petro-CAD slide. Price now sits at 1.4167, holding below EMA20 with RSI back near neutral after the bounce.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4144
Resistance: 1.4176, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4176 reopens the path toward the 1.4193 session high
Failure to hold the 1.4154 spike base confirms a retest of the 1.4144 swing low
Macklem remarks on today's CPI beat could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Pulled back from highs, choppy · RSI 46 · price 1.4167
Range below 1.4193 after a downside sweep to 1.4144.
USDCAD spiked down to 1.4144 on the hot Canadian CPI print before snapping straight back to 1.4176, then fading to 1.4167. Price is now mid-range and below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) neutral near 46; no clean intraday structure in play.
Support: 1.4144
Resistance: 1.4176, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4176 swing high reopens the 1.4193 14m high
Failure to hold 1.4144 session low confirms a lower-low
BoC Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) is the key near-term catalyst and could shift this read
14:01 UTC
Choppy, no clear direction · RSI 47 · price 1.4167
Sharp flush then V-recovery, now consolidating.
USDCAD flushed to a session low of 1.41437 as the hot Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3.0% f/c) handed the loonie relief, then snapped back to 1.41762 in a single bar before fading to 1.4167. Price now consolidating mid-range, below EMA20/EMA50, RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.41534, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41762, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.41762 reopens the 1.41930 session high
Loss of 1.41534 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.41437
BoC Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) is the next CAD catalyst and could shift this read
Hot Canada CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%) sparked a sharp CAD-positive flush to 1.4144 before USDCAD snapped straight back to 1.4176, leaving a clean sweep of the session low. RSI(14) reset to neutral near 52 and ATR sits around 7 pips; the recovery has retraced about two-thirds of the prior drop from 1.4193.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41894
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.4153 reopens the 1.4144 sweep low
Reclaim of 1.4190 returns price to the session high
BoC Macklem speech 13:00 UTC tomorrow could materially shift this read
NY session swept the 1.41437 low — pressure tied to today's hot Canadian CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%) — then snapped back near 18 pips to 1.41760 on a single bar. Price is back inside the prior 1.4154–1.4179 range with RSI(14) neutral around 52; no clean directional structure in play.
Support: 1.41535, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4179, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41790 reopens the 1.41930 session high
Failure to hold 1.41535 re-exposes the 1.41437 sweep low
Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC is the near-term CAD catalyst
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 39 · price 1.41595
Lower highs, downside break swept to session low then recovered.
USDCAD broke down from the 1.41716 shelf during NY hours and swept to a session low of 1.41437 before buyers stepped in, recovering to 1.41595. The slide tracks the hot Canadian CPI print (3.2% vs 3.0%) that gave CAD a relief squeeze; RSI(14) cooling near 39 after the flush.
Support: 1.41437, 1.41519
Resistance: 1.41716
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41437 confirms continuation lower
Reclaim of 1.41716 negates the breakdown
Macklem speech ahead is a key CAD catalyst that could shift this read
13:31 UTC
Intraday reversal, momentum down · RSI 39 · price 1.41595
Range break lower, bounce off session low.
USDCAD sold off sharply mid-session, dropping from 1.4188 toward 1.41437 after the hot Canadian CPI print (3.2% vs 3.0% f/c) broke the intraday range. Price has since bounced to 1.41595 off the session low, RSI(14) recovering from a flush near 39.
Support: 1.41437, 1.41519
Resistance: 1.41718
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.41718 negates the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.41437 confirms a lower low
BoC Macklem (Tue 13:00 UTC) is the key CAD catalyst and could shift this read
13:16 UTC
Intraday breakdown after range · RSI 34 · price 1.41558
Range broken to the downside, lower low printed.
USDCAD broke down from the 1.4170-1.4193 NY range, sliding to a session low of 1.41437 before a modest bounce to 1.41558; RSI(14) cooled to the mid-30s. The hot Canadian CPI print (3.2% YoY vs 3.0%) gave the Loonie a hawkish-BoC lift, pressuring the pair off its 14-month highs.
Support: 1.41437, 1.41519
Resistance: 1.41717, 1.4188
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.41717 would invalidate the breakdown and reopen the range
Failure to hold 1.41437 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Macklem speech (Tue 13:00 UTC) is the key CAD catalyst and could shift this read
13:16 UTC
Downturn after range break · RSI 37 · price 1.41558
Broke session range low, bouncing off 1.4144.
USDCAD snapped lower in the last hour, slicing the 1.4170 range floor to a 1.41437 low after Canada's hot CPI (3.2% vs 3.0%) handed CAD a bid. Price has clawed back to 1.41558; RSI(14) near 37 after the impulsive drop, prior support at 1.4170 now caps.
Support: 1.41437, 1.41519
Resistance: 1.41716
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.41716 invalidates the downside break
Failure to hold 1.41437 confirms continuation lower
Macklem speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift the read
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg lower · RSI 35 · price 1.41558
Range break below 1.4172, recovering off lows.
USDCAD broke its 1.4172-1.4190 range to the downside on the 12:30 UTC Canada CPI print, tagging 1.41437 before a partial recovery to 1.41558. RSI(14) near 35 reflects the sell impulse; price is back testing the 23.6% retrace of the 1.4193-1.41437 drop with the broken floor at 1.41718 now overhead.
Support: 1.41437, 1.41519
Resistance: 1.41718
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim 1.41718 keeps the breakdown intact
Loss of 1.41437 session low opens further downside
CPI fallout still settling — further CAD-driven volatility possible
13:02 UTC
Intraday range broken lower, momentum down · RSI 38 · price 1.41558
Range break below 1.41700 after CPI.
USDCAD broke the 1.41700–1.41900 range and dropped to 1.41437 around the CAD CPI print, a CAD-supportive move that snapped an extended uptrend. Price has since bounced to 1.41558 but holds below EMA20/50; the broken 1.41716 area is the level to watch for retest or rejection.
Support: 1.41437, 1.41519
Resistance: 1.41716, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.41716 invalidates the downside range break
Failure to hold 1.41437 opens further downside
BoC Macklem speech 13:00 UTC tomorrow could reshape the CAD read
USDCAD was rejected just shy of the 1.4200 barrier near 1.4193 and sold off hard into the NY session, dropping ~50 pips in three bars to 1.41437 as CAD CPI repriced BoC expectations. The 1.41650 shelf gave way and RSI(14) is now sub-25, stretched after the impulsive leg down.
Support: 1.41437, 1.4140
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.4188
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.41650 would negate the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.41437 opens 1.41400 psych
BoC Macklem speech tomorrow 13:00 UTC could reshape this read
Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC triggered a sharp impulsive drop, USD/CAD slicing through the 1.4170-1.4190 consolidation to a fresh session low at 1.41437. RSI(14) pushed into oversold near 28 as the prior 1.41716 support flipped to resistance.
Support: 1.41437
Resistance: 1.41716, 1.4188
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.41716 would neutralise the breakdown and put price back in the prior range
Failure to hold 1.41437 confirms continuation lower
BoC Macklem speech tomorrow 13:00 UTC is the next CAD catalyst
USD/CAD was knocked off its 1.41930 session high after the Canada CPI print, the final bar sweeping down to 1.41535 as a firmer inflation read sparked CAD relief. RSI cooled into the mid-30s and price now sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, breaking the 1.41720 consolidation floor.
Support: 1.41535, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4172, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.41720 invalidates the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.41500 confirms continuation lower
Lingering CPI follow-through could extend the move next bars
USDCAD snapped its 1.4172–1.4193 session range with a sharp drop to 1.41535 on the Canada CPI print, after twice failing at the 1.4193 session high. RSI(14) cooled toward 40 and price now trades below EMA20/50; the first reaction bar to the CPI is still developing.
Support: 1.41535, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4177, 1.4193
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.41770 negates the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.41500 extends the move lower
CPI-driven volatility still developing — single reaction bar so far
12:16 UTC
Pullback within range after session-high rejection · RSI 45 · price 1.41716
Lower highs off 1.4193, holding 1.4165 floor.
USDCAD rejected the session high at 1.4193 and drifted back into a 1.4165–1.4193 range, RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s. Buyers stepped in twice near 1.4165 in the last hours; price now coils just under EMA20 ahead of Canada CPI.
Support: 1.4165, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4181, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (in ~15m) is the catalyst that could break this range
M15 close below 1.4165 confirms a lower-low
Close above 1.4193 reopens the 1.4200 area
12:16 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pullback in play · RSI 48 · price 1.41716
Pullback from session high, ranging.
USDCAD rallied to a session high of 1.41930 then faded, now ranging 1.41653–1.41788 with RSI(14) back to neutral. Canada CPI lands in ~15 minutes (12:30 UTC) — the dominant near-term catalyst for the next leg.
Support: 1.41653
Resistance: 1.41788, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC will likely override current structure
Close above 1.41788 reopens the 1.41930 session high
USD/CAD rejected the 1.4193 session high after its fifth straight daily push, pulling back to the 1.4165 session low before stabilising near 1.4172. RSI(14) has cooled to the midline and price is hugging EMA20/50 — Canada CPI in ~30 min is the immediate catalyst.
Support: 1.41653, 1.41576
Resistance: 1.4181, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~30 min) is the dominant risk for this read
A close above 1.4181 puts the 1.4193 session high back in play
Failure to hold 1.4165 opens the 1.4158 swing low
12:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pullback in play · RSI 48 · price 1.41716
Pulled back from session high, consolidating below 1.4180.
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high and is consolidating around 1.4172, just under EMA20, ahead of Canada CPI. RSI(14) near 47 after cooling from the highs; demand has held the 1.4165 swing low on the dip.
Support: 1.4165, 1.41576
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI in ~30min (12:30 UTC) is the catalyst — likely to set the next M15 leg
Close above 1.4193/1.4200 reopens the uptrend toward 1.4273
Loss of 1.4165 confirms a lower-low and deeper pullback
11:46 UTC
Range, pullback bought back · RSI 53 · price 1.41762
Consolidation under 1.4193 session high.
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high and pulled back to 1.4165, where buyers stepped in to lift it back to 1.4176 — roughly the 50% retrace of that leg. Price is coiling in a 1.4165–1.4193 range with RSI(14) neutral, all eyes on Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 1.41659, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC (~45m out) is the dominant catalyst and can break this range either way
Close above 1.4193 reopens the upside path; failure to hold 1.41659 confirms a lower-low
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, pullback off highs · RSI 51 · price 1.41762
Consolidating below 14-mo high.
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high — its weakest CAD level since early 2025 — and pulled back to 1.41659 before buyers stepped in twice during NY hours. Price now consolidates around 1.4176 ahead of the 12:30 UTC Canadian CPI print.
Support: 1.41659, 1.4156
Resistance: 1.4188, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (YoY f/c 3.0%) is the dominant catalyst — could materially shift this read
Close above 1.41930 reopens the upside toward 1.4200
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high and slid to a 1.4165 swing low before buyers stepped back in toward 1.4177, leaving price mid-range and RSI(14) flat near 50. Canada CPI lands at 12:30 UTC — the dominant near-term catalyst with the pair stretched near 14-month highs.
Support: 1.41659, 1.41715
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close back above 1.4182 reopens the 1.4193 session high
Loss of 1.4165 confirms a lower-low toward 1.4131
11:31 UTC
Pullback off session high · RSI 50 · price 1.41765
Lower high after 1.4193 rejection, bouncing off 1.4165.
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high and slid into 1.4165 where buyers stepped in, now recovering toward 1.4177 with RSI back near neutral. Move comes ahead of Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC, the dominant catalyst with the pair stretched at 14-month highs.
Support: 1.41659, 1.4160
Resistance: 1.4188, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~1h out) could materially shift this read
Close above 1.4193 session high reopens the upside grind
Pullback from session high, holding above session low.
USDCAD pushed to a fresh session high at 1.41930 during the London session before fading, RSI(14) cooling back to the mid-40s. Price found a floor at the 1.41653 session low and is recovering to 1.41737, sitting just under EMA20/50 ahead of Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 1.41653, 1.4160
Resistance: 1.4188, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst — likely to override current intraday structure
Reclaim of 1.41880 prior high reopens the 1.41930 session high
Loss of the 1.41653 session low confirms a deeper pullback toward 1.41600
11:16 UTC
Pullback off session high · RSI 44 · price 1.41737
Lower high after 1.4193 rejection, holding 1.4166 support.
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high and slipped under EMA20/EMA50 into a shallow pullback, RSI(14) cooling toward 44. Buyers held 1.4166 twice and price is grinding back to 1.41737; the read hinges on Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC, the dominant near-term catalyst.
Support: 1.41659, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.4181, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.41659 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.41588
Reclaim of 1.41810 puts the 1.41930 session high back in play
11:01 UTC
Pullback from session high · RSI 44 · price 1.41737
Lower highs after 1.4193 rejection.
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high and has carved a lower-high sequence into the NY morning, RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s. Price is consolidating around 1.4174 after a bounce off the 1.41659 session low, holding below EMA20/EMA50. Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC sits directly ahead of the next bars.
Support: 1.41659, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41818, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC is the key catalyst and could materially shift this read
A close back above 1.41818 reopens the 1.4193 session high
Failure to hold 1.41659 confirms a lower low and extends the pullback toward 1.4150
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.41930 session high, printing a lower-high sequence into the European morning with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s. Price holds near 1.41737 after defending the 1.41659 swing low; Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the next catalyst.
Support: 1.41659, 1.4170, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC (~90min out) likely to materially shift this read
Close below 1.41659 confirms a lower-low and opens the gap toward 1.41580
Reclaim of 1.41820 negates the lower-high sequence
10:46 UTC
Intraday pullback off session high · RSI 41 · price 1.41674
Lower highs after rejection at 1.4193.
USD/CAD ran to a session high of 1.4193 in early London then faded to 1.4167, carving lower highs as the move cooled and RSI(14) slid back near 40. Price now sits just above the 1.41653 session low with the 1.4200 pivot still untested.
Support: 1.41653, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41822, 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~2h out) is the catalyst that can reset this read
Close below 1.41653 exposes the 1.41588 day low
Reclaim of 1.41822 needed to re-target the 1.4193 session high and 1.4200 pivot
10:46 UTC
Pullback off session high · RSI 40 · price 1.41674
Lower highs into swing low.
USDCAD rolled off the session high at 1.41930 and is carving a chain of lower highs, now grinding into the 1.41650 swing low. RSI(14) near 40 with price below EMA20/50; momentum has cooled ahead of Canadian CPI.
Support: 1.4165, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41822, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC is the key catalyst and could materially shift this read
Close below 1.41650 confirms a lower low and exposes 1.41563
Reclaim of 1.41822 negates the lower-high chain
10:31 UTC
Intraday pullback from session high · RSI 40 · price 1.41676
Lower highs after rejection at 1.4193.
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high and has rolled over into a string of lower highs, now back at 1.4168 with RSI(14) near 40 and price under both EMAs. The broader five-session climb to 14-month highs is paused ahead of Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 1.41659, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.4179, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
Loss of 1.41659 confirms a lower low and opens 1.4159
Reclaim of 1.4179 negates the lower-high sequence
10:31 UTC
Pulling back from session high · RSI 40 · price 1.41676
Lower highs after 1.4193 rejection.
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high and has carved lower highs since, now pressing the 1.41659 swing low with RSI(14) cooling near 40. Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the catalyst into a five-session rally sitting at 14-month highs.
Support: 1.41659, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41822, 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3% YoY) is the key catalyst and could reset this read
Close below 1.41659 confirms a lower-low and extends the pullback toward 1.41588
Reclaim of 1.41822 negates the lower-high sequence
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 1.41712
Lower highs off session high, holding above 1.4166.
USDCAD rejected a fresh session high at 1.41930 and has drifted back to 1.41712, slipping under EMA20/50 with RSI cooling toward mid-40s. Price is consolidating above the 1.41661 swing low ahead of Canadian CPI.
Support: 1.41661, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the key catalyst and could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.41661 confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.41563
Reclaim of 1.41930 reopens the path to the 1.42000 pivot
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high and is printing lower highs into Canadian CPI (12:30 UTC), now testing 1.4166. RSI(14) cooling near 42 as the five-session rally pauses ahead of the catalyst.
Support: 1.41661, 1.4159
Resistance: 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
Close below 1.4166 confirms a deeper pullback toward 1.4159
Reclaim of 1.4193 reopens the 14-month high
10:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 43 · price 1.41712
Pullback from session high into CPI.
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high and slid back to 1.4171, RSI(14) cooling toward 43 and price slipping under both EMAs. Move comes ahead of Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC, the dominant near-term catalyst with the pair pinned near 14-month highs.
Support: 1.41661, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC (~2.5h out) is the key catalyst for this read
Close above 1.4193 opens the path to the 1.4200 psych pivot
Failure to hold 1.41661 confirms a lower-low
10:01 UTC
Pulling back from session high · RSI 43 · price 1.41712
Lower highs since 1.4193 peak.
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4193 session high during NY hours and is grinding lower into 1.41712, sitting on the 61.8% retrace of the 1.4158-1.4193 leg. Price is below EMA20/50 with RSI cooling to the low 40s as the market squares up ahead of Canada CPI.
Support: 1.41661, 1.41588, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~150min) is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
Hold of 1.41661 keeps the pullback shallow; a break exposes 1.41588
Close back above 1.41930 reopens the 1.4200 pivot
09:46 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 1.41725
Pullback from session high into range.
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high and has drifted back to 1.41725, sitting below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 44. Price is coiling just above the 1.4169 swing low ahead of Canada CPI, with the 1.4200 pivot capping any extension.
Support: 1.4169, 1.4165
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~3h) is the dominant catalyst and could break this range
Close above 1.41930 reopens the path to the 1.4200 pivot
Failure to hold 1.41690 confirms a lower-low
09:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 46 · price 1.41725
Pullback after rejection at 1.4193.
USDCAD pushed to a session high at 1.4193 in the NY session then rejected, drifting back to 1.4172 where it has stalled into the European close. RSI(14) has cooled to mid-range and price sits near the 0.618 retrace of the 1.4158-1.4193 leg ahead of Canada CPI.
Support: 1.4172, 1.4165, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~188min) is the dominant near-term catalyst and could shift this read
Close back above 1.4193 reopens the 1.4200 pivot
Failure to hold 1.4172 exposes 1.4165 then the 1.4158 session low
09:31 UTC
Uptrend stalling, in pullback · RSI 45 · price 1.41734
Consolidating below session high after rejection.
USDCAD rejected at the 1.4193 session high and pulled back to 1.4173, now consolidating mid-range with RSI cooling toward 44. Pair pinned near 14-month highs as the rate-gap bid persists; Canada CPI in ~3h is the dominant near-term catalyst.
Support: 1.41716, 1.4165, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.4193
What it said to watch
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
Close above 1.4193 reopens the upside leg
Failure to hold 1.41716 exposes 1.4165 then range base 1.4156
09:31 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 1.41734
Rally to 1.4193 then retrace under resistance.
USDCAD rejected the 1.4193 session high and faded to 1.4172, with RSI(14) cooling back toward 44 and price slipping under EMA20/50. CAD pinned near 14-month lows as the rate-gap bid dominates ahead of Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 1.41716, 1.4165
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI in ~3h (12:30 UTC) is the dominant near-term catalyst
Loss of 1.41716 confirms a lower-low and extends the pullback toward 1.4165
M15 close above 1.4193 reopens the 1.4200 psych pivot
09:16 UTC
Ranging after session-high rejection · RSI 50 · price 1.41788
Intraday range, mid-range.
USDCAD is ranging between the 1.41746 session low and the 1.41930 session high after a rejection off that high during NY hours, with RSI(14) neutral near 49. Price sits mid-range at 1.41788, no setup in play ahead of Canada CPI.
Support: 1.41746, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~3h) is the high-impact driver that could break this range
Close above 1.41930 opens the path to the 1.42000 pivot
Failure to hold 1.41746 confirms a lower low toward 1.41688
USDCAD rejected the session high at 1.4193 and pulled back to 1.41746 before stabilising near 1.4178, with RSI(14) flattening mid-range. Price coils just below the 1.4200 pivot ahead of Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC, the key near-term catalyst.
Support: 1.41746, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is high-impact and can break this range
M15 close above 1.4193 opens the path to the 1.4200 psych pivot
Failure to hold 1.41746 session low exposes 1.4158
USDCAD pushed to a 1.41930 session high during London hours then got rejected, now consolidating around 1.4179 with RSI(14) back to neutral. Price is pinned between 1.41746 support and the 1.4188-1.4193 supply band ahead of Canada CPI.
Support: 1.41746, 1.41716, 1.4165
Resistance: 1.4188, 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h out) is the dominant near-term risk for this pair
M15 close above 1.41930 reopens the 1.4200 round number
Break below 1.41746 confirms a lower low and opens 1.41650
USDCAD ground up through London to a session high at 1.4193 before rejecting and settling into a tight 1.4175-1.4182 band, RSI(14) back to neutral. Price is coiling just under the 1.4200 pivot into Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 1.41746, 1.4165
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI in ~3.5h (12:30 UTC) is the dominant near-term risk for this read
Close above 1.4193 opens the path to the 1.4200 pivot
Loss of 1.41746 confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.4165
08:46 UTC
Uptrend pausing, pullback in play · RSI 46 · price 1.41761
Pullback from session high, holding above intraday support.
USDCAD rejected the session high at 1.4193 and pulled back to find buyers near 1.4175 during London hours, now consolidating just below EMA20. RSI(14) has cooled to neutral after the push higher. Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the dominant near-term risk into a stretched, overbought daily trend.
Support: 1.41746, 1.41669, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.41746 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.41669
Reclaim of 1.4193 puts the 1.4200 round number back in play
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC can override this intraday read
USDCAD pushed to a session high at 1.41930 during NY hours then rejected, slipping back under EMA20 to 1.41761 as RSI(14) cooled to the mid-40s. Price now hovers around the 1.41755 fib midpoint of the 1.41580–1.41930 leg; the 1.4200 pivot remains untested above.
Support: 1.41755, 1.41688, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.41755 exposes the 1.41688 swing low
M15 close above 1.41930 reopens the path to the 1.4200 pivot
London session pushed to a session high of 1.4193 before rejecting, with the leg back into 1.41746 trimming the intraday rally. Price now consolidating near 1.41770 just under EMA20; CAD CPI at 12:30 UTC is the next catalyst.
Support: 1.41746, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.41888
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.4193 resumes the intraday uptrend
Failure to hold 1.41746 exposes 1.41688
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back · RSI 47 · price 1.41769
Rally to session high, rejected, retracing.
London session pushed to a session high at 1.41930 then rejected, dragging price back to the 1.41745 session low where it's now stalling near 1.41769. RSI(14) has cooled to mid-40s after the rejection; structure intact above 1.41669 but momentum has flattened ahead of Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 1.41745, 1.41669
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is high-impact and can break this range either way
Close below 1.41669 swing low confirms a lower-low and breaks the intraday uptrend
Reclaim of 1.41930 session high reopens the 1.42000 pivot
08:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 48 · price 1.41769
Rejection off 1.4193, consolidating mid-range.
USDCAD pushed to a London session high at 1.4193 then rejected back to 1.41746, RSI cooling toward neutral. Now consolidating around 1.4177 below EMA20 into Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 1.41746, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4189
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 1.4193 reopens the session-high break
Failure to hold 1.41746 confirms a deeper pullback toward 1.41688
08:16 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pullback in play · RSI 51 · price 1.41769
Rejected at session high, consolidating above rising support.
London session rejected the 1.4193 session high and pulled back to 1.4175, RSI(14) back to neutral near 50 after the morning push. Price is consolidating just under the EMA20 while rising support off 1.41669 still holds; CAD CPI at 12:30 UTC is the binary risk into the next bars.
Support: 1.41746, 1.41688, 1.4165
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~4h) is high-impact and can break this range
M15 close below 1.41746 exposes 1.41688 swing low
Reclaim of 1.41930 reopens the path to the 1.4200 pivot
Pullback from fresh high, consolidating below pivot.
USDCAD printed a fresh 14-month high near 1.4193 then rejected, pulling back to the 1.41746 swing low where it's now consolidating below the 1.4200 pivot. Momentum has cooled with RSI(14) back near 47 after the overbought stretch into the high.
Support: 1.41746, 1.4159, 1.4131
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.41746 opens the 1.4159 intraday low
M15 close above 1.4193 re-targets the 1.4200 pivot
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing off session high · RSI 52 · price 1.41769
HH/HL chain stalling, pullback from 1.4193.
USDCAD ground higher through the morning to a fresh session high of 1.4193 before sellers rejected it, pulling back to retest the 1.41746 swing low. Price now hovers mid-range as the prior uptrend cools ahead of Canada CPI.
Support: 1.41746, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~4-5h) is the main CAD catalyst and could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.41746 opens 1.41688 and signals an overbought unwind
USDCAD printed a fresh 14-month high at 1.4193 before sellers capped it and price slipped to 1.41746, RSI(14) cooling back into the mid-50s as the move sat just above EMA50. Pair now hovering at 1.41815 inside a 1.41746–1.4193 band, with Canada CPI the imminent swing factor.
Support: 1.41746, 1.41669, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI in ~5h (12:30 UTC) the main catalyst for this read
Close above 1.4193 / 1.4200 opens path toward 1.4273
Loss of 1.41746 confirms a deeper pullback toward 1.41669
USDCAD ground higher through the London session to a fresh session high at 1.4193 before sellers rejected the level, pulling price back to 1.41746. RSI(14) cooled from the highs as the move stalled below the 1.4200 psych pivot.
Support: 1.41746, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41930 reopens the path toward the 1.4200 pivot
Loss of 1.41746 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.41588
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC (~5h) is the main catalyst and could reshape this read
USDCAD pushed to a fresh session high at 1.4193 during early hours before being rejected, dropping ~18 pips to 1.41749 and slipping below the EMA20. Price now sits on the 1.4170 zone with RSI cooling toward mid-range after an extended grind off the 1.4156 session low.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.4193 reopens the path to the 1.4200 psych pivot
Failure to hold 1.41688 swing low confirms a deeper pullback
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~5h) is the key near-term lever and could materially shift this read
London session ran USDCAD to a fresh session high at 1.4193 before two bars erased the push back to 1.4175, parking price near the 50% retrace of the move off 1.4156. CAD stays pinned near 14-month lows; the rejection is corrective, not structural, with the rising intraday support chain still intact.
Support: 1.41669, 1.41576
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the key near-term CAD lever
M15 close below 1.41669 confirms a lower-low and breaks the rising support
USDCAD ground to a fresh session high at 1.4193 before stalling, with the latest bar rejecting back to 1.4182 on the broken petro-CAD link and hawkish-Fed/dovish-BoC divergence. RSI(14) has cooled to ~49, momentum flat while price holds above the rising support off the 1.41669 low.
Support: 1.4180, 1.41669, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.4180 breaks the rising support and exposes 1.41669
Break above 1.4193 opens the 1.4200 pivot
Canada CPI (12:30 UTC) is the near-term lever that could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 56 · price 1.4182
Higher highs into session high, pulling back.
USDCAD ground higher through Asia hours to a session high at 1.4193 before fading to 1.4182, RSI cooling back to the mid-50s. The pair sits near 14-month highs on hawkish-Fed/dovish-BoC divergence; the rising structure off 1.4159 still holds.
Support: 1.4180, 1.4159, 1.4131
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4193 opens the 1.4200 psych pivot
Loss of 1.4180 recent low exposes 1.4159 swing low
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the key near-term lever and could reshape this read
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, near session high · RSI 58 · price 1.4182
Higher highs into 1.4193, shallow pullback.
USDCAD ground to a fresh session high at 1.4193 through the London session before easing back to 1.4182, RSI(14) cooling from a hot stretch. Price holds above the rising intraday trendline; 1.4200 pivot still untested.
Support: 1.4180, 1.4157, 1.4131
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the key near-term lever and could shift this read
Close above 1.4200 pivot opens the path to 1.4273
Failure to hold 1.4157 breaks the higher-low chain
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 57 · price 1.4182
Higher highs into session high, last bar pulling back.
USDCAD ground higher through London hours to a fresh session high at 1.4193 before the last bar rejected back to 1.4182. Structure is still constructive above the 1.41795 low, but momentum has eased with RSI(14) back near neutral.
Support: 1.41795, 1.41669, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 1.4193 opens the 1.4200 psych pivot
Loss of 1.41795 exposes the 1.41669 swing low
06:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 65 · price 1.41891
Higher highs into 1.4200, shallow pullbacks.
USDCAD ground higher through the London morning toward the 1.4200 psych pivot, printing a session high at 1.41904 with RSI(14) elevated but not extreme near 65. Move builds on CAD weakness at 14-month lows; pullbacks into 1.41785 have been bought.
Support: 1.41785, 1.41669, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Break and hold above 1.41904 opens the 1.4200 psych pivot
Loss of 1.41785 swing low breaks the rising structure
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:45 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 67 · price 1.41891
Higher highs into 1.4200, shallow pullbacks.
USDCAD ground higher through the London session, posting a session high at 1.41904 just under the 1.4200 round number, with CAD pinned near 14-month lows. Pullbacks have been shallow and held above 1.41785; RSI(14) elevated near 67 but not yet stretched on this TF.
Support: 1.41785, 1.41669, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41904 opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
Loss of 1.41785 then 1.41669 would break the higher-low chain
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground higher through NY hours in a steady channel, tagging a session high at 1.41904 before easing to 1.41845; RSI(14) cooling from the highs but still above 50. Price holds above EMA20/50 with the 1.41785 pullback low intact as nearest demand.
Support: 1.41785, 1.41669, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (MoM f/c 0.7%) could materially shift this read
Close above 1.41904 opens the path to the 1.4200 psych pivot
Loss of 1.41785 breaks the higher-low chain toward 1.41669
USDCAD ground higher through the NY session to a session high at 1.4190 before stalling, with CAD heavy after Friday's retail sales miss. Price now hovers at 1.41845 just under that cap; pullback held above the 1.41785 swing low.
Support: 1.41785, 1.41669, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (headline MoM f/c 0.7%) could materially shift this read
Break above 1.41904 opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
Loss of 1.41785 confirms a lower-low and threatens the channel
06:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into highs · RSI 64 · price 1.41868
Higher highs, holding above session lows.
USDCAD ground higher through the NY session to a fresh session high at 1.41904 before stalling just under the 1.4200 psych level, RSI(14) easing to the mid-60s. Buyers stepped in repeatedly around 1.41785 keeping the ascending structure intact ahead of Canada CPI.
Support: 1.41785, 1.4165, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 1.41904 opens the path to the 1.4200 psych level
Loss of 1.41785 breaks the rising structure and exposes 1.41650
06:15 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 64 · price 1.41868
Higher highs into 1.4190, session high capping.
USDCAD ground higher through the NY session, posting a session high at 1.41904 just shy of the 1.4200 psych pivot, with price holding above both EMAs and RSI(14) firm but not extended near 63. The advance tracks broad CAD weakness ahead of Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 1.41785, 1.41669, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Close above 1.41904 opens the path to the 1.4200 psych pivot
Loss of 1.41785 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, near session high · RSI 68 · price 1.41868
Higher highs and higher lows intact.
USDCAD ground higher off the 1.41580 session low to print 1.41904 before easing to 1.41868, holding a clean chain of higher lows. RSI(14) near 68 is hot but not extreme; CAD CPI at 12:30 UTC is the dominant risk into the next bars.
Support: 1.41785, 1.41688, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41904 opens the path to the 1.42000 psych level
Failure to hold 1.41785 breaks the higher-low chain
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground higher through the session in an ascending channel, posting a session high at 1.41904 with price now coiling just below it. CAD remains heavy after Friday's retail-sales miss; RSI(14) ~64 leaves room but the 1.4200 psych level is the next test ahead of Canada CPI.
Support: 1.4180, 1.41669
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Break above 1.41904 opens the 1.42000 psych level
Loss of 1.41800 prior consol exposes the 1.41669 swing low
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground higher through the Asian session into a fresh session high at 1.41904 before stalling, with the loonie heavy after Friday's soft retail sales. Price now consolidates just below 1.4190 in thin pre-London trade, RSI elevated but not extreme; the 1.4200 pivot caps above.
Support: 1.41669, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (forecast 0.7% MoM) could materially shift this read
Break above 1.42000 exposes higher resistance
Loss of 1.41669 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
05:45 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 65 · price 1.41828
Chain of higher highs/higher lows toward 1.4200.
USDCAD ground higher through the session, posting a session high at 1.41904 as the loonie stays heavy near 14-month lows; price now consolidates just under it at 1.41828. RSI(14) around 64 with price holding above EMA20/50 — momentum intact but stretched as 1.4200 comes into view.
Support: 1.4175, 1.41669, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41904 opens the path to the 1.4200 psych pivot
Failure to hold 1.41750 breaks the higher-low chain
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:30 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 64 · price 1.41847
Higher highs into 1.4200 pivot.
USDCAD ground higher through the session in an ascending channel, posting a fresh session high at 1.41904 before easing to 1.41847 as CAD stays pinned near 14-month lows. RSI(14) at 64 is firm but not stretched on M15; the 1.4200 psych pivot is the next area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 1.41757, 1.41669, 1.41576
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.42000 opens the path toward 1.4273
Failure to hold 1.41757 breaks the ascending channel
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:30 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 64 · price 1.41847
Higher highs, higher lows into 1.4200.
London hours extended the grind higher, posting a session high at 1.41904 before stalling just under the 1.4200 psych level, RSI(14) easing to mid-60s. Price holds an ascending structure off the 1.41580 session low with buyers stepping in repeatedly near 1.41688.
Support: 1.41688, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.41904 opens the 1.4200 psych pivot
Loss of 1.41688 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 71 · price 1.41879
HH/HL chain into 1.4200.
Asia session gapped up off 1.41588 and ground higher into the 1.41904 session high, extending the seven-day USDCAD advance toward the 1.4200 pivot as CAD sits at 14-month lows. RSI(14) elevated near 70 but not yet extreme; ascending support has held each pullback.
Support: 1.41744, 1.41669, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.41904 opens the 1.4200 pivot
Failure to hold 1.41744 breaks the ascending support and the HL chain
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD grinding higher through the Asian session toward the 1.4200 psych pivot, RSI(14) elevated near 69 but not extreme. CAD remains heavy after Friday's soft retail sales, with today's Canada CPI (12:30 UTC) the next catalyst.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Break above 1.4200 psych pivot opens room higher
Loss of 1.41688 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 71 · price 1.41879
Higher highs and higher lows into session high.
USDCAD ground steadily higher to a session high at 1.41904, riding the broad USD bid and soft-CAD backdrop, RSI(14) hot near 71 but not extreme. Price holds an ascending channel above EMA20/50 with the 1.4200 psych pivot just overhead.
Support: 1.41757, 1.41669, 1.4165
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the dominant near-term risk for this read
Close above 1.4200 opens the path higher; loss of 1.41757 breaks the ascending channel
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 71 · price 1.41879
Rising HH/HL chain into session high.
USDCAD ground higher through the Asia-into-London session, posting a fresh session high at 1.41904 with the 1.4200 psych level just overhead. RSI(14) near 70 reflects sustained momentum but is getting hot; rising HL chain off 1.41575 keeps structure intact.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41575
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41904 opens the path to the 1.4200 psych level
Loss of 1.41688 breaks the rising HL chain
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground higher through the session to a fresh high at 1.41904, RSI(14) running hot near 71 as CAD stays pressured into today's Canada CPI. Pullbacks have been shallow, holding above 1.41757 with the up-move chain unbroken.
Support: 1.41757, 1.41669, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.41669 breaks the higher-low chain
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground higher through the NY session to a fresh session high at 1.41904, extending a clean HH/HL chain off the 1.41588 low as the USD stayed bid and CAD lagged. RSI(14) near 71 is hot but typical in this kind of grind; demand has stepped in repeatedly around 1.41757.
Support: 1.41757, 1.41669, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close below 1.41669 breaks the HH/HL chain
Acceptance above 1.41904 opens the path toward 1.42000
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing new highs · RSI 70 · price 1.41876
Higher highs and higher lows into 14-month-high zone.
USDCAD ground to a fresh session high at 1.41904 in early Asia trade, holding within the 14-month-high zone with RSI(14) near 70. Price is stacking higher lows above EMA20/50 off the 1.41669 base; CPI later is the key swing factor.
Support: 1.4175, 1.41669, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.41904 opens the path to the 1.42000 psych level
Loss of 1.41669 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground higher through the late session to a fresh 14-month-high zone, last printing 1.41876 after clearing the 1.4170 prior-high band. RSI(14) near 71 is hot but consistent with the trend; rising lows off 1.41563 keep structure intact.
Support: 1.41773, 1.41688, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41904 opens the path to the 1.42000 psych level
Close below 1.41773 breaks the rising-low sequence
Canada CPI + BoC core 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, steady grind · RSI 71 · price 1.41872
Higher highs and higher lows post-gap.
USDCAD ground higher through the Asia session, clearing the prior 14-month-high zone near 1.4170 and printing fresh highs at 1.41872, RSI(14) around 71. Chain of higher lows intact off the 1.41588 post-gap base; no rejection yet at the session high.
Support: 1.41757, 1.41688, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41872
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is a high-impact swing factor and could materially shift this read
Loss of the 1.41757 swing low would break the higher-low chain
Stall and rejection at 1.41872 would cap the session high
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding to new highs · RSI 69 · price 1.41872
Higher highs, breaking pre-weekend range top.
Thin Asian-session trade grinding higher; USDCAD printed a fresh session high at 1.41872, clearing the pre-weekend 1.4180-1.4183 highs as the soft Canadian Retail Sales/weak-oil backdrop keeps the loonie pressured. RSI(14) near 69 is hot but not extreme; rising support held twice off 1.4156 and 1.4167.
Support: 1.41773, 1.41669, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41872
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is a high-impact swing factor for this read
Loss of 1.41773 intraday low breaks the higher-low chain
A close back below 1.41669 session pivot voids the breakout
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding to new highs · RSI 71 · price 1.41872
Higher highs / higher lows, breakout above 14-month high zone.
Thin Asia-session trade has USDCAD grinding to a fresh session high at 1.41872, holding the breakout above the 1.4159-1.4170 14-month-high zone as CAD stays soft after the Retail Sales miss. RSI(14) near 71 is hot but not extreme; the intraday base at 1.41770 has been respected on each pullback.
Support: 1.4177, 1.41669, 1.41576
Resistance: 1.41872, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the key swing factor and could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.41770 would mark a lower-low and break the higher-low chain
A close above 1.41872 opens the path toward the 1.42000 round number
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding to fresh high · RSI 69 · price 1.41872
Higher highs, higher lows intact.
Asia session ground higher into a fresh 14-month/session high at 1.41872, extending the USD/CAD up-leg on the hawkish-Fed/dovish-BoC divergence. Pullbacks held above the rising 1.41688 swing low; RSI(14) near 68, hot but not extreme. Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the key swing factor for this read.
Support: 1.41688, 1.4158, 1.4165
Resistance: 1.41872, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.41688 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above 1.41872 opens path toward the 1.42000 round number
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into highs · RSI 63 · price 1.41795
Higher highs into 14-month-high zone.
USDCAD ground higher through the session back into the 1.4182 14-month-high zone, holding above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 63 — firm but not stretched on this timeframe. Loonie stays heavy on the soft-Retail-Sales/dovish-BoC read; buyers defended 1.4167 on the last dip.
Support: 1.41669, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41819, 1.41827
What it said to watch
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.41827 opens the path to fresh 14-month highs
Loss of 1.41669 breaks the rising sequence of higher lows
03:45 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 62 · price 1.41795
Higher highs after gap, near session high.
USDCAD opened the week with an upside gap and has ground back toward the 1.4182 session high, holding a chain of higher lows near 1.4169. RSI(14) around 62 — firm but not stretched on this TF; momentum supported by the hawkish-Fed/soft-CAD divergence into the Canada CPI print.
Support: 1.41688, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41819, 1.41827
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4182 opens a path to the 1.4183 prior high
Loss of 1.4169 breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4158 gap low
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD gapped up at the Asia-session open from 1.4159 to 1.4175 and has ground steadily higher to a session high at 1.41819, just shy of the prior 1.41827 print. RSI(14) near 63 leaves room, with demand stepping in at the rising 1.41669 base.
Support: 1.41744, 1.41669, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41819, 1.41827
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41669 breaks the rising intraday support
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Acceptance above 1.41827 opens the 14-month-high zone near 1.4170+
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into highs · RSI 61 · price 1.41782
Higher lows, coiling under session high.
USDCAD reopened from the weekend gap and ground back to the 14-month-high zone, now coiling just under the 1.41819 session high with a chain of higher lows off 1.41576. RSI(14) near 60, no extreme; price holding above EMA20/50.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41576
Resistance: 1.41819, 1.4187
What it said to watch
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC is the key swing risk for this read
M15 close above 1.41819 opens path toward the 1.4187 high
Loss of 1.41688 breaks the higher-low chain
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 61 · price 1.41773
Higher highs, higher lows off session low.
USDCAD ground higher through the session to tap 1.41819 before easing to 1.41773, holding inside the 14-month-high zone. Price sits above EMA20/50 with RSI mid-60s, consolidating just under the session high.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41594, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41819, 1.41827
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the key swing factor and could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.41827 extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of 1.41688 swing low breaks the rising support sequence
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 58 · price 1.41773
Higher highs into 14-month-high zone.
USDCAD ground back above the 1.4170 14-month-high zone and printed a session high at 1.41819, holding firm near 1.41773 on the broader USD bid. Demand stepped in at 1.41669 on the prior dip; the post-gap recovery has reclaimed both EMAs with RSI mid-range, no exhaustion yet.
Support: 1.41669, 1.41588, 1.4170
Resistance: 1.41819
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41819 opens continuation toward fresh highs
Failure to hold 1.41669 confirms a lower-low and softens the bid
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC is a high-impact swing factor that could reshape this read
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum easing · RSI 61 · price 1.41773
Higher highs into session high.
Asia session reopened bid, USD/CAD grinding up to a session high at 1.41819 before stalling near 1.4177, RSI(14) easing from the push. Price holds above the 1.4159-1.4170 14-month-high zone; tight 4-5 pip bars show consolidation under the high.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41819, 1.41785
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.41819 extends the session high
Failure to hold 1.41688 opens the path to the 1.41588 monday low
Thin Asia-session trade ground higher off the 1.41576 post-gap low to tag a 1.41819 session high, now consolidating around 1.4177 with price holding above EMA20/50. Momentum is contained, RSI mid-range, on a chain of higher lows ahead of Canada CPI.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41576
Resistance: 1.41819
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is a high-impact event that could materially shift this read
A close above 1.41819 extends the session high
Loss of 1.41688 breaks the higher-low chain
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 66 · price 1.41797
Higher highs, pressing session high.
USDCAD ground higher through the Asian session, pressing the session high at 1.4182 and holding above the 14-month-high zone near 1.4159-1.4170. Momentum is steady with RSI(14) mid-60s, no extreme yet. Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the dominant near-term risk for the loonie.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41591, 1.41576
Resistance: 1.41819, 1.41827
What it said to watch
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.41820 opens continuation higher
Failure to hold 1.41688 swing low signals a lower-low
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into session high · RSI 64 · price 1.41797
Higher highs/higher lows post-gap.
USDCAD pushed back to a session high at 1.41819 in Asian hours, holding above the prior 1.4170 high after a clean weekend gap higher. Price is grinding up in a tight HH/HL chain with RSI mid-60s, well short of an extreme.
Support: 1.41688, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41819, 1.4177
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41819 extends the session high
Loss of 1.41688 breaks the rising HL chain
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground higher through the Asian session, pressing back into the 1.41812 session high with RSI(14) mid-60s, in line with the soft-CAD/firm-USD divergence theme. Price holds above both EMAs after demand stepped in around 1.41688; the top of the range is the immediate test.
Support: 1.41688, 1.4158, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41812, 1.41827
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41827 prior high extends the move
Failure to hold 1.41688 swing low opens 1.4158
Canada CPI / Fed Waller risk could shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing highs · RSI 71 · price 1.41807
Higher highs, higher lows.
USDCAD grinding back to the session high at 1.41812 after the post-gap recovery off 1.41563, RSI(14) near 70 and stretched on the hawkish-Fed/dovish-BoC divergence. Higher lows intact with buyers stepping in at 1.41688; prior high at 1.41827 is the next overhead reference.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41812, 1.41827
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41827 prior high extends the uptrend
Loss of 1.41688 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Canada CPI (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 67 · price 1.41806
Higher highs into session top.
Thin Asia-session tape grinding higher, USDCAD printing a session high at 1.41806 after reclaiming 1.41784. RSI(14) firm near 67 with no overbought stress, structure intact above the rising support off 1.41588.
Support: 1.41669, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41812, 1.41827
What it said to watch
Break above 1.41827 prior high extends the leg
Loss of 1.41669 swing low breaks the rising structure
Canada CPI later today (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 68 · price 1.41806
Higher highs into session high.
Thin Asia-session tape grinding higher, USDCAD pressing the session high at 1.41812 with the broader move sitting near 14-month highs after soft Canadian retail sales. RSI(14) firm but not extreme around 68; rising lows from 1.41588 have held the advance intact.
Support: 1.41669, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41812, 1.41827
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41827 opens continuation toward fresh highs
Loss of 1.41669 breaks the rising intraday support
Holiday-thinned liquidity can exaggerate moves through the Asia session
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 66 · price 1.41806
Higher highs, near session high.
Asia session grinding higher into the Monday open, USD/CAD pressing the 1.41827 session high with RSI(14) near 66. CAD stays heavy after Friday's retail sales miss; buyers stepped in repeatedly off 1.41669 to hold the ascending intraday structure.
Support: 1.41669, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41827
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41827 opens continuation higher
Loss of 1.41669 breaks the ascending intraday structure
Canada CPI (12:30 UTC) is the dominant CAD catalyst ahead
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 68 · price 1.41806
Higher lows post-gap, testing range top.
Post-gap recovery through the Asia session has lifted price off the 1.4158 session low and stair-stepped higher; price now probes the session high at 1.41812 after consolidating in the 1.4170-1.4178 zone. RSI(14) near 68 — elevated but not extreme.
Support: 1.41688, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41812, 1.41827
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41827 confirms continuation past the prior high
Loss of 1.41688 breaks the post-gap higher-low chain
Canada CPI is the dominant CAD catalyst and could reshape this read
USDCAD gapped higher into the new week and rallied to 1.41784 before stalling, with CAD pinned near 14-month lows on soft retail sales. Price is now coiling in a tight 1.41669–1.41784 band, RSI(14) mid-range and ATR thin in the holiday-quiet tape.
Support: 1.41669, 1.41588, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41806
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41784 reopens the path to 1.41806
Loss of 1.41669 exposes the post-gap low at 1.41588
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could break this range
Asia session jumped off 1.4158 to 1.4178 then stalled, USDCAD now consolidating in a tight 1.4169-1.4178 band with RSI(14) neutral near 57. Price holding above EMA20/50, session-high supply capping at 1.4178.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41563, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41827
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41784 reopens the path to the 1.41827 fri high
Loss of 1.41688 swing low breaks the consolidation lower
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst and can reset this read
01:31 UTC
Ranging, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.41703
Tight range after gap-up.
Asia session opened with a gap-up off 1.41588 into 1.41784, then stalled into a tight 1.4170–1.4178 range with USDCAD pinned near 14-month highs on the sustained post-FOMC USD bid. Last two bars slipped below the EMA20/EMA50 cluster, RSI flat in the high-40s — no setup in play.
Support: 1.4165, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41827
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41784 reopens the 1.41827 prior high
Loss of 1.41650 confirms a lower-low toward 1.41580 range low
Crude direction remains the primary CAD driver into the new week
01:31 UTC
Consolidating after gap-up · RSI 47 · price 1.41703
Range under session high.
Asia session opened with a weekend gap-up from 1.4159 into 1.41784, then stalled and pulled back toward 1.4170 with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s. Price now sits in a tight 1.41669–1.41784 range, drifting off the session high.
Support: 1.41669, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41807
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41784 reopens the path to 1.41807
Consolidation under session high after gap-up reopen.
USDCAD reopened with a gap up off 1.41588 and rallied to a session high of 1.41784 before stalling. Thin holiday tape now has price coiling in a tight 1.41695–1.41784 band, RSI(14) flattening mid-range with no fresh extension.
Support: 1.41695, 1.4165, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41827
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41784 reopens the path to the 1.41827 prior high
Loss of 1.41695 session low exposes the 1.41650 reopen gap
Fed's Waller (13:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Monday Asia open gapped lower then snapped back, jumping from 1.4159 to a session high of 1.41784 on sustained post-FOMC USD bid. Price has since drifted to 1.41698 and is consolidating just under that high, RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 1.4165, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41827
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41784 reopens the path to the 1.41827 prior high
Loss of 1.4165 exposes the 1.41588 session low
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the day's main catalyst and could materially shift this read
New week opened with a gap-up that ran to a session high at 1.41784, after which price has consolidated in a tight 1.41700–1.41784 band. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 49 and price is back below EMA20; the gap base at 1.41650 caps downside so far.
Support: 1.4165, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41827
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.41650 gap base would put the 1.41563 session low back in play
M15 close above 1.41784 reopens the path to the 1.41827 prior high
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the main CAD catalyst and could break this range
01:02 UTC
Range, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 1.41698
Post-gap consolidation 1.4170–1.4178.
Thin Asian session opened with a small gap then a quick pop to 1.41784 before settling into a tight 1.4170–1.4178 range on very low volume. Price now drifting back toward the 1.41695 range low with RSI mid-zone — no setup in play.
Support: 1.41695, 1.4165, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41827
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41784 reopens the 1.41827 prior high
Break below 1.41695 exposes the 1.4165 swing low
Holiday-thinned liquidity exaggerates moves; Canada CPI later today is the main catalyst
USDCAD gapped higher on the holiday-thinned reopen and has since coiled in a tight 1.41700–1.41784 range just below 14-month highs, RSI(14) flat near 49. Price is hugging the EMA20 with no directional resolution in the last few hours.
Support: 1.41698, 1.4165, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41827
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41784 opens the path back to 1.41827
Loss of 1.41698 exposes 1.41650 swing low
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC is the day's main catalyst and could break this range
00:46 UTC
Consolidating near highs · RSI 50 · price 1.41714
Range after gap-up open.
Thin holiday-thinned tape gapped up to 1.41747 at the open and has since stalled, ranging 1.41700–1.41784 with USD broadly bid near 14-month highs against the loonie. Price is drifting back toward the gap open at 1.41650 after rejection at the 1.41784 session high.
Support: 1.4165, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41827
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41784 reopens the 1.41827 prior high
Loss of 1.41650 gap open exposes the 1.41563 session low
Canada CPI later today (12:30 UTC) is the main catalyst that could reshape this range
00:31 UTC
Consolidating after gap-up reopen · RSI 45 · price 1.4170
Tight range under session high.
USDCAD gapped up to 1.41784 on the reopen then settled into a tight 1.4170–1.4178 range, the loonie still pressured by the post-FOMC USD bid and soft oil. Price has eased back to the 1.4170 round number, RSI(14) cooling toward mid-range.
Support: 1.4170, 1.41588, 1.4165
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41827
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41784 session high reopens 1.41827 prior high
Loss of 1.4170 round number exposes the 1.41588 session low / gap base
Canada CPI (12:30 UTC) is the day's main CAD catalyst and could shift this read
00:31 UTC
Consolidation after gap-up · RSI 44 · price 1.4170
Ranging 1.4170-1.4178 near session highs.
Thin holiday Asia tape gapped up at the open and ran to 1.41784 before stalling into a tight 1.4170-1.4178 range. Price has since drifted back to 1.4170 with RSI(14) cooling toward mid-40s; momentum flat ahead of Canada CPI.
Support: 1.4165, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.4178, 1.4183
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4178 reopens the path toward the 1.4183 prior high
Loss of 1.4165 fills the gap and exposes 1.4158
Canada CPI (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Monday Asian open gapped USDCAD up off the 1.41588 session low and through the 1.4165 area, with price now coiling between 1.41735 and 1.41784. Tape is thin and rangebound after the jump; the session high at 1.41784 caps and 1.41650 marks the gap area below.
Support: 1.4165, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41827
What it said to watch
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.41784 opens the path toward the 1.41827 prior high
Loss of 1.41650 puts the 1.41588 session low back in focus
00:16 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 58 · price 1.41744
Post-gap balance below session high.
USDCAD gapped higher on the new week's open near 14-month highs and is now balancing in a tight 1.4174-1.4178 band just below the 1.41784 session high. Momentum has cooled with RSI off its stretched levels; the soft loonie tone persists ahead of Canada CPI.
Support: 1.4165, 1.41588, 1.41563
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41827
What it said to watch
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst — could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.41784 reopens the 1.41827 prior-day high
Loss of 1.41650 gap zone signals deeper post-gap fade
00:01 UTC
Post-gap pop, now consolidating · RSI 57 · price 1.41744
Holding below session high after gap up.
Holiday-thin Asia tape: USDCAD gapped up off 1.4159 to print a 1.41784 session high, then went flat in a tight 1.41735-1.41784 band. Price sits mid-range above both EMAs with ATR barely 4-5 pips — no momentum either way until volume returns.
Support: 1.41735, 1.4165, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41827
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41784 opens the path to 1.41827 prior high
Loss of 1.41735 exposes the 1.41650 gap base
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC is the dominant CAD catalyst and can reset this range
00:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 62 · price 1.41744
Gap-up open, tight range under session high.
USDCAD gapped up at the Monday open from 1.41588 toward the session high at 1.41784, extending the soft-loonie theme that pushed the pair to 14-month highs. Price is now coiling in a tight band between 1.41700 and 1.41784 in thin early-Asia tape, RSI cooling off near 62 after the impulse.
Support: 1.4170, 1.4165, 1.41588
Resistance: 1.41784, 1.41801
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41801 prior high opens continuation higher
Loss of 1.41700 round level exposes the 1.41650 gap open
Canada CPI 12:30 UTC is the dominant CAD catalyst and could reset this range