Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 low.
Clean higher-high/higher-low sequence since the 1.3759 low mid-window, with price accepting above the 1.4000 psych level and now pressing the 1.40835 prior high — the second consecutive weekly advance, driven by the wide US-Canada front-end spread after the Fed hike and a sliding crude tape. EMA20 sits above EMA50 with price above both, and ATR(14) around 21 pips shows a modest expansion rather than compression, consistent with trend extension. Pullbacks have been shallow, holding the 1.40245 swing low and the rising higher-low line.
Support: 1.40245, 1.4000, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.40835, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT are the main event risks for this structure
A clean H4 close above 1.40835 prior high opens the path to the 1.4100 psych area
H4 close back below 1.4000 psych would break the higher-low sequence and put the 1.39783 week low back in play
A sharp crude rebound is the primary structural threat to the two-week uptrend
Unbroken higher highs / higher lows since the 1.3759 swing low.
Three weeks of grinding higher lows have carried USDCAD through the 1.4000 psych mark and the early-August highs, with the last two sessions closing at the top of their ranges into a fresh 7-week high at 1.4075. The driver is the wide US-Canada front-end spread after the hawkish Fed, compounded by crude's multi-day slide, which the digest flags as CAD's dominant weak point. ATR(14) near 20 pips is expanding modestly rather than compressing, consistent with trend continuation, though RSI around 70 shows the move is now stretched.
Support: 1.4025, 1.4000, 1.3976
Resistance: 1.4080, 1.4100
What it said to watch
A clean H4 close above the 1.4080 barrier extends the two-week uptrend toward the 1.4100 round number
Loss of the 1.4025 prior high and a close back under the 1.4000 psych mark would break the higher-low sequence
Failure to hold 1.3976 swing low would confirm the first lower low of the sequence
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the events most able to reshape this structure
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 68 · price 1.40414
Higher highs / higher lows since the 1.3759 low; price at range top.
USDCAD has built a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 low three weeks ago, with the 1.4000 psych level broken and now holding as support after last week's FOMC hike widened the Fed-BoC gap back toward 175bp. Price is pressing the 1.4050 aug-6 high with EMA20 and EMA50 stacked beneath and ATR(14) near 20 pips — no compression, the trend is still expanding rather than coiling. Softer crude on Hormuz de-escalation headlines has kept CAD the underperformer even after Macklem's hawkish tilt.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39783, 1.3945
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
A sustained H4 close above the 1.4050 aug-6 high opens the path toward the 1.4080 prior barrier
Loss of the 1.4000 psych level would break the rising higher-lows line and shift focus to the 1.39783 swing low, then 1.3945
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the scheduled events capable of reshaping this structure
Failure at 1.4050 on a third test would mark it as a firm ceiling rather than a breakout level
09:03 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 64 · price 1.40408
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 low; price at window high.
USDCAD has built an unbroken sequence of higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 low, with the post-FOMC widening of the Fed/BoC front-end spread to 175bp doing the heavy lifting over the past two weeks. The 1.4000 psych pivot has been absorbed and reclaimed repeatedly and price now sits at the window high of 1.40430 with both EMA20 and EMA50 beneath the market. ATR(14) near 19.5 pips is mid-range for this window — expansion into the move rather than compression, though RSI in the low 60s shows the advance is orderly rather than overheated.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3973, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Sustained close above the 1.40430 window high opens the path to the 1.40800 barrier
H4 close back below the 1.40000 psych pivot would expose the 1.39730 swing low and break the higher-low channel
Loss of 1.39200 prior low would end the higher-high, higher-low structure
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT (f/c -0.8%) is the main scheduled risk to this read
Higher highs and higher lows since 1.3759; price at cycle high.
Clean higher-high, higher-low sequence since the 1.3759 impulse low, with price now pressing the 1.4043 week high after acceptance above the 1.4000 psych pivot. The leg was driven by the post-FOMC hawkish USD repricing and the ~175bp Fed/BoC front-end gap, compounded by softer crude. ATR(14) near 18 pips is mid-range rather than expanding, and the last three bars have stalled in a 16-pip band just under the high — advance intact but no fresh impulse yet.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3978, 1.3945
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 closes above the 1.4043 week high open the path to the 1.4080 barrier
Loss of the 1.3978 swing low, and then the 1.3945 pivot low, would break the higher-low sequence
A close back under the 1.4000 psych pivot would mark the breakout as unconfirmed
US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT are the calendar risks to this structure
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, grinding to new highs · RSI 66 · price 1.40326
Higher highs and higher lows, holding above the 1.4000 breakout.
Unbroken higher-high/higher-low sequence since the 1.3759 base three weeks ago, with the last leg clearing the 1.4000 psych pivot and immediately retesting it at 1.3996 before pushing to a 1.40386 week high — the hawkish Fed hike that widened the Fed/BoC gap to 175bp plus softer crude explains the persistence. Price trades above both EMA20 and EMA50 and the EMAs remain stacked bullish, while the most recent higher low sits at 1.39783. ATR(14) near 18 pips shows the advance is grinding rather than expanding, and the two probes of the 1.4030s have yet to produce follow-through toward the 1.40500 round number.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39783, 1.39197
Resistance: 1.40386, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Sustained acceptance above the 1.40500 round number would extend the impulse; repeated rejection there flags exhaustion at the week high
A close back below the 1.39783 swing low would be the first lower-low of the sequence, exposing the 1.39197 prior low
US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the scheduled events capable of resetting this structure