USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 25 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling at week high · RSI 49 · price 1.41435
Higher lows Tue–Thu, Friday flat range 1.4133–1.4154.
USD/CAD climbed from Tuesday's 1.4025 week low to a 1.4154 week high. The dominant legs came through the London-NY transition and NY hours on Tuesday and Thursday, as Fed hike bets and US yields above 5% outweighed oil. Friday flattened into a 1.4133–1.4154 range as the dollar paused, and the week high retest printed on a lower RSI(14) reading than Thursday's push. Price has now slipped off the higher-low line and sits on EMA(20) near 1.4144, with RSI(14) back near 49.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4100, 1.4057
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4154 week high resumes the uptrend and brings the 1.4200 round number into view
Break of the 1.4133 range low exposes the 1.4100 round number, near the 38.2% fib of the week's rally
Loss of 1.4100 puts the wed low at 1.4057 in focus, close to Scotiabank's 1.4055 fair value
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US ADP/PCE (Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday, Friday compressing into a tight range under the week high.
USD/CAD stair-stepped roughly 130 pips higher from Tuesday's 1.4025 low, with the main legs landing in NY hours. The sharpest push came on Thursday after the US jobless claims beat. Friday has compressed into a 1.4133–1.4154 range as the USD paused on softer oil, with twin rejections at the 1.4154 week high. Price now sits on EMA(20), just under the rising trendline from Tuesday's low, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~50; the pullback is shallow relative to the week rally.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4125, 1.4105
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4154 week high extends the grind and opens the 1.4200 round number
Break of the 1.4133 friday low turns the twin highs into a completed top and exposes the 1.4125 swing low
Loss of 1.4125 swing low brings the 1.4105 fib 38.2 of the week rally into play
Sustained trade below the rising trendline shifts the read from trend to range
Canada GDP and US JOLTS Tue, then ADP/PCE Wed, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; Friday compressing in a 1.4133–1.4154 range under the week high.
USDCAD has printed higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's 1.4025 low, with the dominant legs coming in NY hours. Thursday's push through the 1.4110 prior range followed the 197K jobless-claims beat. Friday has compressed into a 1.4133–1.4154 range as the USD paused: the fri low held at the rising trendline just under EMA(20), while the week high capped price at London open and again late in the NY session. That high sits only marginally above Thursday's peak while RSI(14) has cooled to ~61 from above 70, a mild bearish divergence.
Support: 1.41434, 1.41329, 1.4111
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4133 fri low and the rising trendline would break the higher-low sequence and expose the 1.4110 prior range
Sustained trade above the 1.4154 week high extends the uptrend toward the 1.4200 round number
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC, in thin late-Friday liquidity, could shift the read into the weekly close
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US ADP/GDP (Wed) are the next scheduled catalysts for the trend
Higher lows since Tuesday; Friday tight range above EMA(20).
USD/CAD has climbed in a series of higher lows from Tuesday's 1.4025 low. The largest leg came in Thursday's NY session, running from the 1.4097 Thursday low to about 1.4149 as rising US yields and Fed hike pricing weighed on CAD. Friday has compressed into a roughly 20-pip range between the 1.4133 Friday low and the 1.4154 week high, set at London open, with price back above the ema20. The Friday low sits on the 38.2% fib of Thursday's impulse and on the rising trendline, and RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s from overbought readings on Thursday.
Support: 1.4144, 1.4133, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.4133 Friday low breaks the rising trendline and the 38.2% fib, exposing the 1.4097 Thursday low
An H1 close above the 1.4154 week high ends the Friday consolidation, with the 1.4200 round number next above
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 at 1.4144 would mark momentum fading within the range
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift hike pricing, and this read, into the weekend close
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US ADP (Wed 12:15 UTC) are the next catalysts for a range break
Higher lows since Tuesday; Friday range 1.4134–1.4149 below week high.
USD/CAD climbed from Tuesday's 1.4025 London low to a 1.4154 week high. The strongest legs came during NY hours on Tuesday and Thursday, as Fed hike pricing and softer oil weighed on CAD. Friday has compressed into a 1.4134–1.4149 range, with price pinned on EMA(20) and the higher-lows line near 1.4140, while RSI(14) printed a lower high at the week high, a bearish divergence as the USD pauses. Below the range floor, Thursday's 1.4125 swing low sits alongside EMA(50), with the 38.2% fib of the week advance at 1.4105.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4125, 1.4105
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4134 range floor also breaks the higher-lows line and the week's rising structure
Loss of the 1.4125 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.4105
Repeated rejection at the 1.4149 range top keeps the bearish RSI divergence read in play
Close above the 1.4154 week high puts the 1.4200 round number in view
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC today and Canada GDP on Tue could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling at week high · RSI 44 · price 1.4135
Tuesday's London session launched the leg from 1.4025, and the NY sessions on Wednesday and Thursday delivered the extensions. Thursday's push through 1.4125 came as soft Canadian retail ex-autos and a US claims beat landed alongside Fed-hike repricing. Friday has stalled in a 1.4133–1.4154 band below the week high, with closes slipping under EMA(20) and the rising trendline from Tuesday's low, and RSI(14) easing into the mid-40s from overbought readings.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4125, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4140, 1.4154
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4133 friday low exposes the 1.4125 thu low, which sits near the 23.6% level of the week rally fib
Failure to hold the 1.4125 thu low opens the 1.4100 round number and turns the rising trendline break into a deeper pullback
Recovery above ema20 near 1.4140 and a close through the 1.4154 week high would restore the higher-high sequence
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC today could shift this read; Canada GDP (Tue) and US ADP/GDP (Wed) are the next major event risk
Higher lows since Tuesday; Friday ranging 1.4133-1.4154 under the week high.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows since Tuesday's 1.4025 low. The two main legs up came through the London-NY transition on Tuesday and Thursday, as firm US yields and Fed hike pricing lifted USD while softer oil weighed on CAD. Friday has stalled below the 1.4154 week high set around London open, with price rotating around EMA(20) in a 1.4133-1.4154 session range, RSI(14) cooled to ~51, and session lows now probing the rising trendline from Tuesday.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4125, 1.4105
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4133 session low and the rising trendline puts the 1.4125 swing low (Thursday NY dip) in play
Failure to hold the 1.4125 swing low exposes the fib 38.2 retracement of the week impulse near 1.4105 and would mark the first lower-low of the week
H1 close above the 1.4154 week high resumes the higher-high sequence and opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Hammack (18:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read; Canada GDP follows Tuesday
Higher lows since Tuesday, stalling below week high.
USDCAD has stair-stepped from Tuesday's 1.4025 low to a 1.4154 week high in Friday's Asia session. Thursday's NY-session leg was the largest push, as the jobless claims beat, softer crude on Hormuz talks and firm Fed hike pricing lined up behind it. Since then the pair has stalled under the double-tapped week high, and London dips to the 1.4133 session low have wicked under the rising trendline from Tuesday's lows, with RSI(14) fading to the mid-50s against the higher high. Price is now sitting on EMA(20) after mixed durable goods, and the 23.6% retracement of the Tuesday-to-Friday impulse lines up with the 1.4125 Thursday NY low.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4125, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4133 session low confirms a break of the rising trendline and exposes the 1.4125 Thursday NY low
H1 close above the 1.4154 week high clears the double tap and opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4100 round number, near the 38.2% of the Tuesday-to-Friday impulse, would mark a deeper retracement of the week's move
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling at week high · RSI 54 · price 1.41437
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; Friday consolidating below 1.4154.
USDCAD has ground higher from 1.3996 since Monday. NY hours carried Tuesday and Wednesday, and Thursday's London-NY transition broke out through the 1.4125 late-July highs, as Fed hike pricing and softer oil on US-Iran Hormuz talks weighed on CAD. Friday's London open printed a week high at 1.4154 before fading, and today's low at 1.4133 held the rising trendline, with the bar closing back above EMA(20) near 1.4141. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s, consistent with a pause rather than a turn.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4125, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read; Hammack speaks at 18:00 UTC
H1 close below today's low at 1.4133 breaks the rising trendline and puts the 1.4125 breakout zone on retest
Failure to hold 1.4125 opens the round number at 1.4100, near the 38.2% of the week rally fib
H1 close above the 1.4154 week high resumes the higher-high sequence toward the 1.4200 psych level
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling at week high · RSI 47 · price 1.41394
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; Friday pausing under 1.4154 and slipping below the higher-lows line.
USDCAD has made higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's NY session. Thursday's London-NY push carried it through the late-July highs near 1.4127, with Fed hike pricing and softer oil on Hormuz talk weighing on CAD. Friday's Asian range stalled under the 1.4154 week high, and London has since faded below the ema20 and under the higher-lows line, with RSI(14) near 47 despite the new price high.
Support: 1.4127, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4143, 1.4154
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4154 week high would resume the higher-high sequence and negate the bearish divergence
Failure to hold the july highs at 1.4125–1.4130 opens the 23.6–38.2% zone of the week impulse toward the 1.4100 round number
Price holding under the ema20 through NY hours confirms momentum loss rather than a routine pullback
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and hike-odds sensitivity heading into the weekly close
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near week high · RSI 61 · price 1.41455
Higher lows since Monday; tight consolidation under 1.4154.
USDCAD has built a clean higher-low sequence from Monday's 1.3996 low, with Tuesday's and Thursday's NY sessions carrying the main legs. Thursday's push to 1.4149 followed the 197K jobless claims beat and hawkish Fed commentary, while oil softened on US-Iran Hormuz talks. Friday's London open probe to the 1.4154 week high faded, and the dip to 1.4140 held on the rising trendline. Price is now compressing just above EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR contracting to around 7 pips.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4128, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising trendline and the 1.4128 friday low would break the week's higher-low sequence and expose the 1.4110 wed high
H1 close above the 1.4154 week high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift Fed hike pricing and this read
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and US-Iran oil headlines remain event risk into Friday's close
Higher lows every session; tight consolidation 1.4140–1.4154 after Thursday's breakout.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows in every session since Monday's 1.3996 low. The decisive leg came in Thursday's NY session on the hawkish Fed chorus and softer oil, clearing the 1.4113 prior range top. Since then price has held a tight 1.4140–1.4154 consolidation beneath the week high, with this morning's London dip finding EMA(20) near 1.4140 and RSI(14) cooling to the mid-60s from Thursday's push.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4154 week high extends the Thursday impulse toward the 1.4200 round number
Loss of EMA(20) at 1.4140 exposes the 1.4125 Thu NY low, the 50% retracement of the Thursday impulse
Close back below the 1.4113 prior range top and the higher lows trendline turns Thursday's breakout into a false break
Williams (09:15 UTC), US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday, tight Friday range under 1.4154.
USDCAD has printed a higher low every session since Monday's 1.3996 low. The NY session drove the gains from Tuesday through Thursday as hawkish Fedspeak, the jump in the 7-year auction yield and softer oil lifted the pair through the 1.4113-1.4130 late-July highs. Friday's Asia session and the move into London open have held a tight 1.4140-1.4154 band above EMA(20) near 1.4140. The week high has seen two rejections, and RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s from Thursday's stretch.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4154 week high resumes the week's impulse, with the 1.4200 round number next
H1 close below the 1.4125 Thu NY low breaks the higher-low sequence and tests the rising trendline near 1.4132
Loss of the 1.4113 late-Jul high exposes the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse near 1.4094
Williams (09:15 UTC), US durables (12:30 UTC), UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Hammack (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday; tight consolidation above Thursday breakout.
USDCAD has printed higher lows every session since Monday's 1.3996 low along a clean higher-lows trendline. Thursday's London-into-NY leg cleared the 1.4100 figure and the Wednesday prior high near 1.4110, driven by rising US yields and hawkish Fed commentary widening rate spreads over CAD. Asia and early London on Friday have held a tight 1.4140–1.4155 consolidation just above EMA(20), and the new week high at 1.4154 came with RSI(14) near 63, below Thursday's peak, a mild bearish divergence.
Support: 1.4141, 1.4125, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4154 week high extends the trend toward the 1.4200 round number
H1 close below the 1.4125 swing low breaks the Friday base and exposes the 1.4110 prior high
A break of the higher-lows trendline (~1.4130) would end the week's rising structure
A pullback toward the 38.2% of the week impulse (~1.4094) would test the 1.4100–1.4110 breakout zone
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday, pressing week high.
USDCAD has printed higher lows every day since Monday's NY-session low at 1.3996. The main legs came in Tuesday's NY session and Thursday's London-NY transition, as US yields rose on hawkish Fed talk and oil slipped on Hormuz reopening reports. The Asia session has ground back into the 1.4150 week high and is holding above the ema20 near 1.4138. RSI(14) sits near 71, below Thursday's peak reading, a modest bearish divergence on the retest.
Support: 1.4138, 1.4126, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4150, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4150 week high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Loss of the 1.4126 swing low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the sequence; the 1.4110 prior high is the next reference, with the week's impulse 38.2% near 1.4091
US Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US-Iran Hormuz headlines moving oil remain the main CAD swing factor into the weekend
05:03 UTC
Uptrend, compressing at week high · RSI 63 · price 1.41482
Higher lows each session since Monday; tight range under 1.4149.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows every session since Monday's 1.3996 low. The main legs came in NY hours Tuesday, after Wednesday's PMI beats and across the London-NY transition Thursday, as hawkish Fed pricing and firm US data lifted the USD while softer oil weighed on CAD. Thursday's push cleared the late-July high near 1.4113 and tagged the 1.4149 week high; the Asia session has since compressed just beneath it, holding above EMA(20) near 1.4137 with RSI(14) around 63, off overbought.
Support: 1.4137, 1.41251, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.41492, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4149 week high extends the uptrend, with the 1.4200 round number the next reference
Break of Thursday's 1.4125 swing low and the higher-low trendline ends the higher-low sequence; the 1.4113 late-July high then becomes the retest area
Deeper pullback would bring the 38.2% level of the week impulse fib near 1.4091, Wednesday's base, into view
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows every day this week · RSI 63 · price 1.41478
Stair-step higher lows, tight Asian coil just under the week high.
USD/CAD has climbed from Monday's 1.3996 week low in a clean series of higher daily lows. The Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday legs all came during NY hours. Thursday's NY-session push through 1.4100 and the late-July high near 1.4130 followed the 7-year auction yield surge and hawkish Fed commentary, and the old wed high near 1.4110 now sits below as support. Price is compressing in a narrow Asian range just under the 1.4149 week high, holding above the ema20, with RSI(14) at 63 and no longer overbought despite the advance.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4128, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close below the asian low at 1.4128 and the ema20 would mark the first break in this week's higher-lows sequence
A sustained move above the week high at 1.4149 opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
Failure to hold the wed high at 1.4110 brings the 38.2% week fib near 1.4091 into view
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady · RSI 66 · price 1.41477
Higher lows each day since Monday.
A clean staircase of higher lows runs from Monday's 1.3996 swing low, with each day's advance printing during London-NY hours. Thursday's jobless-claims beat and hawkish Fed commentary drove the break through the 1.4110 prior high to a 1.4149 week high. Price is grinding back toward that high in the Asia session while holding above EMA(20) near 1.4139, with RSI(14) at 66 and ATR easing to around 8 pips. The 1.4200 round number is the next level overhead, and the rising trendline sits near 1.4125, just under the 1.4128 day low.
Support: 1.4139, 1.4128, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4128 day low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-lows sequence
Loss of the 1.4110 prior high exposes the 38.2% fib of the week impulse near 1.4091
Close above the 1.4149 week high extends the breakout toward the 1.4200 round number
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Hormuz headlines pulling oil lower keep pressure on CAD into the NY session
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; tight Asian range under 1.4149.
USDCAD has printed a higher low every day since Monday's 1.3996 low. Each leg higher came in the London-NY transition on hawkish Fed repricing and strong US PMIs and claims. Thursday's NY session broke the 1.4125/30 late-July highs, set the 1.4149 week high, then held a retest of that breakout zone at 1.4125. Price is now compressing in a 7-pip Asian range above the ema20 with RSI(14) holding in the mid-60s.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4125, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4125 breakout zone would mark a failed breakout
Loss of the thu low at 1.4097 and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence
Clear H1 close above the 1.4149 week high extends the uptrend toward the 1.4200 round number
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, US durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 1.4134 would keep the Thursday breakout intact
Higher lows since Monday, breakout above July highs.
USD/CAD has set a higher low in every session since Monday's 1.3996 low, and the NY session drove each leg higher. Thursday's beats on jobless claims and new home sales pushed the pair through the 1.4125/30 July highs to a 1.4149 week high as US yields and Fed hike bets kept CAD heavy. Price is now holding in a tight Asia range just above ema20 near 1.4132, and RSI(14) has eased to around 68 from overbought as momentum flattens under the week high.
Support: 1.4132, 1.4125, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below 1.4125 (july highs) would put the breakout back inside the prior range and expose the wed high at 1.4110, near the 23.6% fib of the week impulse
A break of the higher-lows trendline, now near 1.4120, would end the Monday-to-Thursday sequence of higher lows
Acceptance above the 1.4149 week high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched near week high · RSI 73 · price 1.41466
Higher highs and higher lows each session; breakout above 1.4125 retested and held.
USD/CAD has set a higher low in every session since Monday's 1.3994 week low. The legs came in NY hours: Tuesday's run, Wednesday's move on the PMI beats, then Thursday's jobless claims beat and 7-year auction lifted price through the late-July high near 1.4125 to a 1.4149 week high, with firmer oil giving CAD no support. The dip after the break held the july high on a retest, and price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 73.
Support: 1.4125, 1.4097, 1.4057
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below 1.4125 (july high, near EMA(20)) negates the breakout-retest read
A break of the higher-low trendline near 1.4120 and of the 1.4097 thu base would mark the first lower low of the week
Acceptance above the 1.4149 week high opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
Failure to hold 1.4057 (wed low, near the 61.8% fib of the week impulse) would retrace most of the week's move
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC Friday, plus Fed's Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read