Higher highs and higher lows since early window, latest bar breaks short-term support.
Price built a steady sequence of higher highs and higher lows from 1.3570 up to 1.3869 over the window, but the latest bar printed a sharp rejection from the range top, slicing 60 pips to break the EMA20 and close at 1.3783. The rejection coincided with USD selling on US/Iran ceasefire headlines and Musalem's hawkish tilt, putting the prior swing area around 1.3740 in focus as the first test of trend integrity. RSI rolling from overbought toward 42 reflects momentum loss rather than confirmed reversal while the EMA50 near 1.3705 still holds.
Support: 1.37733, 1.3740, 1.3705
Resistance: 1.38236, 1.38695
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.3740 prior swing confirms a lower-low and breaks the uptrend structure
Reclaim of 1.3825 prior high neutralises the rejection read
Failure to hold 1.3705 ema50 zone opens path toward 1.3640
Further US/Iran ceasefire progress or dovish USD headlines could extend the rejection
Higher highs / higher lows since 1.3549, rejection at 1.3869.
Three-week advance from 1.3549 has carried price into the 1.3869 swing high, where the latest H4 printed a sharp rejection back to 1.3800. Structure remains a clean sequence of higher lows above the rising EMA20/50 stack, but momentum is fading as RSI rolled over from the high while price made a fresh peak — bearish divergence into resistance. Cease-fire headlines and a soft US new home sales print added a USD wobble at the highs.
Support: 1.37984, 1.37404, 1.36945
Resistance: 1.38693, 1.38515, 1.38236
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.38515 reasserts the trend and reopens 1.38693 swing high
Loss of 1.37984 session low exposes the 1.37404 swing low and breaks the near-term higher-low chain
Fed Musalem hawkish tone keeps USD supportive; any Iran MOU approval could weigh on USD short-term
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing near range top · RSI 63 · price 1.38491
Higher highs, higher lows since early-window low.
USDCAD has carved out a steady ascending channel through the window, with higher-lows since 1.3550 and price now pressing the range high near 1.3870. The push above 1.3820 extends the multi-day breakout from early-month, though RSI rolling near 63 with price stalling at session high 1.3851 hints at momentum cooling. US core PCE due in the next session is the immediate event that could reshape this read.
Support: 1.3803, 1.3743, 1.3694
Resistance: 1.38515, 1.38695, 1.3900
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.38695 range high opens path toward 1.3900 psych
Loss of 1.38030 ema20 would crack the channel and expose 1.37430 swing low
US core PCE print imminent — material deviation could shift the structural read
Higher highs and higher lows since early-window lows.
USDCAD has built a clean stair-step uptrend off the early-window 1.3580 base, breaking the 1.3700 ceiling mid-window and confirming the prior break at 1.3800 with a retest before extending to a fresh multi-week high at 1.3869. Geopolitical risk flows tied to renewed US-Iran tensions near Hormuz are supportive of USD strength, with CAD pressured despite firmer oil. RSI near 67 and price stretched above both EMA20 and EMA50 point to extended but still constructive momentum.
Support: 1.3800, 1.3740, 1.3690
Resistance: 1.38693, 1.3900
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.3800 prior break would neutralise the breakout-retest read
Acceptance above the 1.3869 session high opens the path to the 1.3900 psych level
Failure to hold 1.3740 swing low confirms a lower-low and breaks the higher-low sequence
Further Middle East escalation could materially shift this read via risk-off USD flows
USDCAD has carved a clean stair-step advance from the 1.3580 base in early month to fresh highs near 1.3869, with each pullback holding above the prior swing low. The pair cleared the 1.3820 prior pivot this week and price now sits at the session high, the highest level since mid-April per news flow. ATR(14) around 17 pips and RSI in the high-60s show momentum extending without yet flashing extreme overbought.
Support: 1.3803, 1.3765
Resistance: 1.3869, 1.3900
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.3803 prior pivot would break the higher-low sequence
Rejection wick at the 1.3900 psych level would mark a session high failure
Iran-US headline risk could inject volatility outside the channel
Clean stair-step uptrend on H4 since the 1.3580 base in early-window, with each pullback holding above the rising EMA20. Price broke above the 1.3820 prior pivot and tagged a session high at 1.38515 before easing, leaving structure constructive with EMA20 and EMA50 both stacked below price. RSI in the low-60s shows momentum but not yet stretched, while ATR(14) around 18 pips reflects an orderly trend rather than a volatility blow-off.
Support: 1.3803, 1.3760, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.38515, 1.3866
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.38515 session high extends the channel toward the 1.38660 round number
loss of the 1.38030 prior pivot would break the recent higher-low sequence
failure at 1.37600 swing low confirms a deeper structural shift
Iran headlines and BoJ/Fed speakers in Tokyo could inject cross-asset volatility into USD