USDCAD ran to a fresh 14-month high near 1.4248 mid-week before rolling over as in-line US PCE trimmed Fed-hike odds and oil firmed, capping the rally. Price has since faded toward 1.4190, sitting on EMA20 with RSI cooling to the mid-40s and lower highs forming off the peak. The new week reopened with thin holiday liquidity and a minor gap down, holding the 1.4170 swing low so far.
Support: 1.41688, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4224, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.41688 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.4150 nov peak
Reclaim of 1.4200 psych puts the 1.4240 14m high back in view
Canada GDP Jun 30 and the Jul 1 ADP/ISM cluster could materially shift this read
USDCAD pushed to fresh 14-month highs near 1.4240 mid-week before a twin rejection there formed a double top, and price unwound toward 1.4170 as in-line US PCE trimmed Fed-hike odds and firmer oil propped CAD. Since then H1 has consolidated in the 1.4170-1.4200 band, with the latest bars holding just above EMA(20) but still capped under EMA(50). RSI(14) has reset to neutral around 50 after the pullback.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41503
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4200 round number reopens the path toward the 1.4240 double top
Loss of 1.4168 week low confirms a lower-low and extends the corrective leg
Canada GDP MoM (Jun 30) could materially shift this read
USD/CAD pushed to fresh 14-month highs near 1.42476 twice midweek and was rejected both times, leaving a double top before fading after in-line US PCE trimmed Fed-hike bets and oil firmed. Price now consolidates around 1.419, holding just above EMA20 but below EMA50, with RSI mid-range near 47. The 1.42000 psych level is capping the bounce and 1.41720 swing low marks the floor of this week's pullback.
Support: 1.4172, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.42000 reopens the path to the 1.42476 week high
Failure to hold 1.41720 confirms a lower low and deeper retrace toward 1.41500 prior peak
Canada GDP Jun 30 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read