21:05 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into June highs · RSI 76 · price 1.41557
Double bottom breakout; higher highs since Sep 8, testing 1.4193-1.4248.
USD/CAD has reversed most of the June–August decline. A double bottom at 1.3732/1.3759 (Aug 21 / Sep 8) broke its 1.3939 neckline and the jun-jul trendline together on Sep 16, and the pair has posted only one down close in 14 sessions since, clearing the july high at 1.4128 and the 78.6% retracement near 1.4137. The move tracks a widening Fed-BoC gap as October hike odds pushed above 70%, but RSI near 76 is in genuine overbought territory, with the prior high at 1.4193 and the june high at 1.4248 overhead.
Support: 1.4128, 1.4005, 1.3939
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4248
What it said to watch
- Daily close back below the july high at 1.4128 would mark the breakout as a false break and bring the july low at 1.4005 back into view
- Prior high at 1.4193 and june high at 1.4248 are the rejection-or-break zone; a close above 1.4248 clears the full June–August range
- Failure to hold the neckline at 1.3939 would negate the double bottom read
- Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%), US JOLTS Tue and ADP Wed, plus PCE/NFP later in the week, could materially shift this read with RSI already overbought