USDCAD ground higher through Monday and Tuesday into 1.3869, then unwound the entire week's advance in a single NY session sweep yesterday after softer USD trade and the Trump-Iran de-escalation headlines. Price spiked to 1.3829 in early NY today before being rejected hard to a 1.3770 swing low, and is now consolidating below the 1.3800 psych level with RSI(14) recovering from oversold toward 45. Structure has shifted from trend continuation to a retest from below of the broken 1.3818 base.
Support: 1.3775, 1.3770, 1.3783
Resistance: 1.3800, 1.3818, 1.3829
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.3818 breakdown level neutralises the rejection read
Loss of 1.3770 swing low confirms a lower-low and extends the unwind toward the week low
USMCA auto-content headlines remain a CAD-side risk into next session
Lower high printed after failed breakout above 1.3850.
Price spiked to 1.3829 in NY hours before being smashed back below 1.3800, printing a lower high after Wednesday's 1.38515 week high. The Trump Hormuz blockade-lift headline coincided with the reversal, and softer USD has since paired with the sub-EMA(20) drift to keep recovery attempts capped at the 1.3800 round number. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s with momentum now skewed lower on the week.
Support: 1.37699, 1.37733, 1.3750
Resistance: 1.3800, 1.38205, 1.38515
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.3800 round number reopens 1.3820 rejection wick
Break of 1.37699 session low confirms continuation of the lower-high structure
Ongoing US-Iran headline flow can override the technical read intraday
18:00 UTC
Pullback within broader uptrend · RSI 47 · price 1.37978
Lower-high after sweep, recovering.
Week opened mid-range and pushed to a 1.38515 high through the NY session midweek before a sharp flush during NY hours yesterday swept stops to 1.37700 on the Trump Hormuz blockade headline and softer USD. Price has since reclaimed 1.37820 and is grinding back toward the broken 1.38150 shelf, with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. Structure now sits in a lower-high pattern below EMA(20) — the recovery is real but capped until 1.38150 gives way.
Support: 1.3770, 1.3782
Resistance: 1.3815, 1.3829, 1.38515
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.38150 reopens the path to 1.38290 NY high
Failure to hold 1.37820 swing low reopens 1.37700 week low
Further US-Iran headline flow could materially shift this read
Lower high printed at 1.3869, price back below EMA20/50 after impulsive drop.
Price rallied steadily from Monday's 1.3796 open through to a 1.3869 week high during Thursday's NY session, but a double-top formation at that level gave way to a sharp impulsive drop into Friday's NY hours, breaking the EMA20 and tagging 1.3770. The recovery off the session low has stalled near 1.3805, with the EMA20 now acting as resistance and RSI(14) cycling back from oversold. Headlines around Trump's blockade-lift announcement and softer-than-expected Canadian GDP coincided with the volatility but USD has lost ground on the day.
Support: 1.37699, 1.37798, 1.37733
Resistance: 1.3805, 1.38291, 1.38693
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.3805 EMA20 reopens the path to the 1.3829 rejection wick
Break of 1.3770 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.3773 Thu low area
Further US-Iran headline flow can override structure given the day's price action
Lower high printed, breaking week's rising structure.
Price topped twice near 1.3869 mid-week before rolling over hard in the NY session, slicing through both EMA(20) and EMA(50) and the 1.3818 shelf in a single impulsive bar. The Trump headline lifting the naval blockade and softer oil supply read drove the move, with RSI(14) collapsing to 32 confirming momentum has flipped. Week open at 1.3780 is being tested live; loss of it cleanly cedes the entire week's range.
Support: 1.3770, 1.3773, 1.3780
Resistance: 1.3818, 1.3829, 1.3869
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.3818 would neutralise the breakdown
Iran/Hormuz headline risk remains live and can whip oil-linked CAD
Fed Bowman/Paulson rhetoric on stalled disinflation keeps USD two-way
15:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, sharp pullback in last bars · RSI 34 · price 1.3775
Rising channel broken, sweep of 1.3770.
USDCAD spent the week grinding higher from 1.3796 to a 1.3869 week high before a sharp NY-session reversal sliced through EMA(20) and EMA(50), bottoming at 1.3770. The soft Canadian Q1 GDP print barely dented the move, and the leg lower came on the heaviest hourly volume of the window — a clean rising wedge break rather than a slow rollover. RSI(14) has pushed to 34 and price is consolidating just above the swept low.
Support: 1.3770, 1.3773, 1.3783
Resistance: 1.3829, 1.3869
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.3829 (ema20) would neutralise the wedge break
Sustained trade below the 1.3770 swept low confirms a lower-low into 1.3750
Reaction at the 1.3783 prior base will define whether the sweep holds
14:00 UTC
Rotation lower after midweek high, recovering off 1.3773 · RSI 61 · price 1.38185
Range with lower-high rejected; bounce off weekly low underway.
USDCAD spent the week climbing from 1.3795 to a 1.3869 week high during Wednesday's NY session, then unwound the entire move on Thursday's NY hours after soft Canada Q1 GDP and the weaker US trade data, printing a week low at 1.3773. Price has since carved a double bottom around 1.3780 and reclaimed EMA20 on this hour's spike to 1.3829, with RSI(14) lifting back to 60. The recovery leaves the H1 in a wide range between the 1.3773 week low and the 1.3829 session high, with EMA50 still overhead.
Support: 1.3799, 1.3782, 1.3773
Resistance: 1.3829, 1.3849, 1.38695
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below 1.3799 intraday pivot reopens the 1.3773 week low
Acceptance above 1.3829 session high exposes the 1.3849 Wednesday high
Failure to hold the double bottom at 1.3773 confirms a lower-low on the week
USDCAD spent the week grinding higher from Monday's 1.3795 open to a 1.3869 print into Thursday's NY session, before a sharp flush on the soft Canada Q1 GDP miss and weaker US trade/wholesale data swept the 1.3780 area and reversed. Price has reclaimed EMA(20) and printed a 1.3829 high in the current NY hour, leaving the pair mid-range between this week's 1.3773 low and 1.3869 high. RSI(14) lifted off oversold with a bullish divergence into the sweep low.
Support: 1.3799, 1.3782, 1.3773
Resistance: 1.3829, 1.38515, 1.3869
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.3799 session low reopens the 1.3773 week low
Acceptance above 1.3829 session high exposes 1.3851 and the 1.3869 week high
Range break either side of 1.3773–1.3869 defines next directional leg
12:01 UTC
Pullback within broader uptrend · RSI 48 · price 1.37994
Sharp rejection from weekly high, retracing into mid-range.
USDCAD spent most of the week grinding higher from 1.3795 to a weekly high at 1.3869 during yesterday's NY session before a sharp rejection drove price back to 1.3773. The current session has retraced roughly half that move, stalling at 1.3814 and rolling back to the intraday 1.3799 area. Structure is now a pullback inside the broader uptrend, with EMA(20) flattening and RSI cycling around the midline.
Support: 1.3780, 1.3773, 1.3799
Resistance: 1.3814, 1.3850, 1.3869
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3814 session high reopens path toward the 1.3850 rejection zone
Loss of 1.3780 swing low confirms a lower-low and breaks the week's uptrend structure
ING note flags rate differentials and equities as drivers — broader USD tone can override this read
11:00 UTC
Pullback within broader uptrend · RSI 52 · price 1.38083
Rejection from week high, retracing into prior range.
Sharp rejection from the 1.3869 week high during yesterday's NY session, with price slicing through 1.3818 and basing at 1.3773 before today's London session lifted it back to retest the broken shelf. RSI(14) has cycled back to neutral from oversold and price is reclaiming EMA20 but sits below EMA50, leaving this as a retest of the 1.3818 area rather than a confirmed recovery. BoE Bailey commentary and softer European data have dominated headlines but USDCAD flow has been driven by the post-spike unwind.
Support: 1.3783, 1.37733, 1.3760
Resistance: 1.3818, 1.3840, 1.38693
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.3840 prior range floor would re-engage the week-high test
Failure to hold 1.3783 session low reopens 1.3773 week low
Loss of 1.3773 confirms a lower-low against this week's structure
Canadian GDP later today could materially shift this read
USDCAD pushed to a week high at 1.38515 during yesterday's NY session before a sharp rejection drove price 70+ pips lower into the 1.37733 swing low. The current bounce has stalled near the EMA20 around 1.38150, with RSI(14) recovering to neutral after touching oversold. Price is currently retesting the area where the breakdown originated, with the prior swing at 1.38280 the key pivot for the week's structure.
Support: 1.3782, 1.37733, 1.3799
Resistance: 1.3828, 1.38515, 1.3815
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.38280 prior swing reasserts the week's uptrend
Failure at the 1.38150 ema20 retest keeps the lower-high read intact
Break of 1.37733 week low confirms a structural shift lower
Canadian GDP release later today could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Pullback within broader range · RSI 55 · price 1.38052
Lower high formed at 1.3869, sharp leg down to 1.3773, bouncing.
Pair carved out the week high at 1.3869 during yesterday's NY session before a sharp sell-off through the EMA(20) into 1.3773, where buyers stepped in. Price has since clawed back into 1.3805 but remains capped below the EMA(20) near 1.3815, leaving structure as a corrective bounce inside a wider range. RSI(14) lifted from oversold back to mid-50s with a mild bullish divergence on the second low.
Support: 1.3773, 1.3782, 1.3799
Resistance: 1.3815, 1.3849, 1.3869
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.3815 ema20 would reopen the 1.3849 wed high
Loss of 1.3773 week low confirms a lower-low and extends the down leg
Sustained reclaim of 1.3869 week high invalidates the corrective read
08:00 UTC
Pullback within broader uptrend · RSI 40 · price 1.37951
Sharp rejection from weekly high, retesting prior breakout zone.
Price rallied steadily from Monday's 1.3795 base into a 1.3869 week high during yesterday's NY session, then collapsed nearly 90 pips on a clean rejection. The current bounce has stalled below 1.3800 with RSI(14) sitting at 40, and both EMA(20) and EMA(50) now cap price from above, marking a clear momentum shift from the early-week trend.
Support: 1.3783, 1.3773, 1.3750
Resistance: 1.3800, 1.3818, 1.3869
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.3800 round number would neutralise the rejection read
Loss of 1.3773 swing low confirms a lower-low and opens 1.3750 prior pivot
Sustained stall under 1.3818 breakdown level keeps the corrective tone intact
Price ran to a week high near 1.3870 during yesterday's NY session before reversing hard, with a single H1 bar covering 1.3850 to 1.3816 and follow-through into Asia taking the pair to 1.3773. Currently consolidating just below 1.3800 with RSI(14) recovering from oversold but still sub-40; the move has driven price back beneath both EMA(20) and EMA(50). Bearish divergence formed on the final push higher into 1.3870 ahead of the break.
Support: 1.37733, 1.3760, 1.3800
Resistance: 1.3799, 1.3830, 1.38695
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.3800 round number and EMA(20) near 1.3830 would neutralise the pullback
H1 close below session low at 1.3773 opens path toward 1.3760 psych
Canada GDP release later in NY session could materially shift this read
06:00 UTC
Pullback within this-week uptrend · RSI 38 · price 1.3789
Sharp rejection from week high, holding above 1.3780.
Price climbed steadily from Monday's 1.3795 area to a week high of 1.3869 during yesterday's NY session before a sharp rejection dropped it back through EMA(20) and EMA(50) in a single H1 candle. Since then USDCAD has stalled into Asia and early London around 1.3780, with RSI(14) compressed near 38 after diverging at the week high. The structure remains a pullback inside the broader weekly advance unless the 1.3773 swing low gives way.
Support: 1.3780, 1.3773, 1.3760
Resistance: 1.3820, 1.3869
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.3773 confirms a lower-low and breaks this-week uptrend
Reclaim of 1.3820 EMA20 area would neutralise the rejection
Canada GDP release later today could materially shift this read
Price rallied steadily from Monday's 1.3795 open into a 1.38693 week high during the NY session yesterday, then collapsed roughly 90 pips in three hours through the 1.3800 shelf to a 1.37733 week low. Since then H1 has stabilised in a narrow 1.3778–1.3789 base with RSI(14) holding 35–40 and ticking up while price held the low — a tentative bullish divergence on the lower timeframe. EMA(20) at 1.3818 caps any rebound and remains the line that separates this from a deeper continuation.
Support: 1.37733, 1.37798, 1.3760
Resistance: 1.3799, 1.3818, 1.38693
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.37990 broken support would neutralise the breakdown read
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.3818 needed to reopen the prior range
Loss of 1.37733 week low confirms a fresh lower low and extends the move
Canada GDP release later today could materially shift this read
04:00 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg lower · RSI 31 · price 1.37861
Lower high stamped at 1.3869, broke this-week range.
USDCAD rejected twice at 1.3869 during yesterday's NY session before collapsing through the 1.3800 shelf that had capped this week's range. Price now sits 80 pips off the week high with RSI(14) near 31 and trading well below the EMA20, suggesting momentum stays with sellers while 1.3799 caps. The Asia session bounce has stalled cleanly under the broken shelf.
Support: 1.37733, 1.3760
Resistance: 1.3799, 1.3818, 1.3869
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.3799 broken shelf would neutralise the downside read
Loss of 1.3773 session low opens path toward the 1.3760 round number
Canada GDP release later today could materially shift this read
Lower high posted at 1.3869, broke through week's range floor.
Week traded a tight 1.3795–1.3870 range through Mon–Wed before NY hours yesterday delivered a sharp impulse lower, slicing the 1.3820 floor and extending to 1.3773. Price now consolidates just under 1.3785 with RSI(14) at 31 and both EMAs capping above, the double top at 1.3869 marking the rejection that started the move. Asia session is holding the lows without bouncing — broken floor at 1.3792 is the immediate resistance area to watch for rejection or reclaim.
Support: 1.37733, 1.3760
Resistance: 1.3792, 1.3818, 1.3869
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.37920 would neutralise the breakdown and reopen the week's range
Lower high printed, breaking week's rising structure.
Wednesday's NY session pushed to a week high at 1.38693 but failed to hold, with the subsequent hour delivering a sharp impulsive break that collapsed price more than 90 pips through both EMA20 and EMA50. The week's rising structure is broken: a lower high has printed against an earlier bearish RSI divergence at the highs. Price is now consolidating just above the swing low at 1.37798 with RSI(14) stretched near oversold.
Support: 1.37733, 1.37798, 1.3799
Resistance: 1.3818, 1.38693
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.37733 confirms continuation of the breakdown leg
Reclaim of 1.38180 breakdown lvl would neutralise the lower-high read
Week open at 1.3799 is the pivot for this week's net direction
Ongoing US-Iran headlines could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Uptrend rolling over, sharp pullback in progress · RSI 28 · price 1.37828
Lower-high printed at 1.3869, breakdown through prior range.
Price grinded higher from Monday's 1.3795 area into a 1.3869 week high during yesterday's NY session, then sharply reversed, slicing through the 1.3800 broken shelf in a single impulsive H1 bar. RSI(14) printed a bearish divergence at the second peak and has since pushed into oversold near 28, with price stabilising just above the 1.3773 session low into the Asia session. EMA(20) at 1.3818 is now overhead resistance.
Support: 1.37733, 1.3765, 1.3750
Resistance: 1.3800, 1.3818, 1.3869
What it said to watch
Reclaim of broken shelf at 1.3800 would neutralise the breakdown
Sustained trade below 1.3773 session low opens 1.3765 psych and 1.3750 round number
Failure to bounce after oversold RSI signals continuation lower
00:00 UTC
Sharp reversal from weekly high · RSI 28 · price 1.37825
Range break lower after failed push to 1.3869.
Aggressive flush during the NY session yesterday after twin rejections near 1.3869 carved a double top, with price slicing through the 1.3818 shelf and the EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster in a single impulsive H1 candle. RSI(14) sits at 28 and price has based just above 1.3773, suggesting the move is stretched but momentum is firmly with sellers. Asia session has so far held below 1.3800, keeping the breakdown intact.
Support: 1.37733, 1.3760
Resistance: 1.3800, 1.3818
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.3818 breakdown lvl would neutralise the bearish read
Hourly close below 1.3773 session low extends the leg toward 1.3760 psych
Tokyo CPI undershoot already printed — limited CAD relevance, USD-side risk light into Asia