1.4175–1.4201 range, two rejections at 1.4200, range low held twice.
Two failures at 1.4200 (London range top 1.4201, then a 1.41995 retest before the late-NY drop tied to Williams' no-rush remarks) framed a 1.4175–1.4201 range, and demand held the range low a second time near 1.4175. Early Asia is compressing around the 61.8% fib of that drop near 1.4190, capped by the 1.4193 swing high, with ATR(14) contracting to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4201 range top breaks the double-rejection structure
Close above the 1.4193 swing high puts the 1.4200 range top back in play
Loss of the 1.4182 swing low exposes the range low at 1.4175, then the Asian low at 1.4173
Month-end flows and US ADP / core PCE (Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off range low · RSI 63 · price 1.41914
1.4175–1.4200 range; higher low at 1.4182 after NY sell-off.
USDCAD was rejected twice at the 1.4200 range top, once in London and once in NY. The second failure, on Williams' no-rush remarks, sent price back to the 1.4175 range low, which had also held at midday. Price has since retraced about two-thirds of that NY drop, with a higher swing low at 1.4182, and is drifting near 1.4191 in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 range top breaks the double rejection and ends the range read
Recovery stalling at the 1.4193 swing high keeps price capped inside the range
Loss of the 1.4182 swing low breaks the rising lows line off the 1.4175 low
Break below the 1.4175 range low opens a test of the Asian-session low near 1.4173
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) on Wed could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off range low · RSI 61 · price 1.41915
1.4175–1.4200 range, double top at range top.
Two rejections at the 1.4200 round number (London 1.4201, NY 1.4199) formed a double top, and the late-NY drop on Williams' no-rush remarks stalled at the range low near 1.4175 for a second time. Price has since retraced about two-thirds of that Williams drop to 1.4191 in thin early Asia, pressing the bounce high at 1.4193 with the late low at 1.4182 beneath.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 round number invalidates the range and double-top read
Rejection at the 1.4193 bounce high keeps the range top capped and brings the 1.4182 late low into view
Failure to hold the 1.4175 range low breaks the range to the downside
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed could materially shift this read
1.4175–1.4200 range; double top at the cap, early-Asia recovery into upper half.
USDCAD was rejected twice at 1.4200 in a double top, first in London and again late in NY when Williams' no-rush remarks knocked it back to the 1.4175 range floor, where demand absorbed both drops. Early Asia has held the 1.4182 session low and retraced about two-thirds of the NY drop toward the 1.4193 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral near 57 and ATR(14) under 4 pips.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 double top invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 1.4182 session low puts the 1.4175 range floor back in play
Close below 1.4175 range floor breaks the day's structure
Rejection at the 1.4193 swing high would confirm the 61.8% retrace as a cap
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Sideways, early Asia drift in upper half of range · RSI 53 · price 1.41905
24h range 1.4175–1.4200, double top at the range top, higher low off the base.
Ranging 1.4175–1.4200 for 24h. London's push stalled at 1.4201, and NY's retest failed at 1.4200 to form a double top after Williams' no-rush remarks, while the range base at 1.4175 held a third time. Early Asia is holding 1.4190, just under the late-NY high at 1.4193 and above a higher low at 1.4182.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4193 late-NY high puts the 1.4200 double top back in play; acceptance above 1.4200 breaks the range
Loss of the 1.4182 higher low returns focus to the 1.4175 range base
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) on Wednesday could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off range low · RSI 54 · price 1.41915
1.4175–1.4200 range; double top at range top, rising lows since NY.
USDCAD was rejected twice at the 1.4200 range top, in London and again late in NY on Williams' no-rush remarks. The 18:00 UTC drop found the 1.4175 range low for a second time. Early Asia has retraced about 70% of that drop to press the 1.4193 bounce high, with rising lows from 1.4175 to the 1.4182 late low. RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 1.4182, 1.41751
Resistance: 1.41926, 1.4201
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4193 bounce high brings the 1.4200 range top and double top back into play
A close above 1.4201 invalidates the double-top read after two rejections
Failure to hold the 1.4182 late low breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the 1.4175 range low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 0.3% m/m) Wed could materially shift this read
USDCAD printed a double top at 1.4200, first in the London morning and again late in NY. The second rejection came on Williams' no-rush remarks and ran to a 1.4175 session low. The late-NY drop has since retraced about 60% into the early Asia session, and price at 1.4190 sits just under the 1.4193 swing high and hugs flat EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 double top breaks the range and ends the rejection read
Failure to hold the 1.4182 swing low and the rising support line puts the 1.4175 session low back in play
A break below 1.4175 confirms a lower low out of the range
US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; CAD shorts are rebuilt into the print
1.4175–1.4200 range, double top at range top, equal lows at range floor.
London's push to 1.4201 and a NY retest at 1.4200 both failed, leaving a double top at the range top. The late-NY drop on Williams' no-rush remarks held the 1.4175 range floor, matching the midday low. The rebound has retraced about 70% of the NY drop into the 1.4193 asian high and is flat on both EMAs with RSI(14) at 50 as Asia opens.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4200 range top breaks the double top and the two-rejection cap
Loss of the 1.4182 rollover low exposes the range floor at 1.4175, then the asian low at 1.4173
Failure to reclaim the 1.4193 asian high keeps price mid-range inside the NY drop fib
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Sideways, range-bound after failed push through 1.4200 · RSI 53 · price 1.41874
1.4175–1.4200 range: double top at the range top, double low at the range low.
USDCAD was rejected twice at the 1.4200 range top, once in London and again late NY, the second on Williams' no-rush remarks, which sent it to the 1.4175 range low. The post-NY bounce stalled at the asian high near 1.4193, and price now sits at the 50% of the drop retrace, flat on EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 53.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4171
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 range top invalidates the double top read
Loss of the 1.4175 range low exposes the asian low at 1.4171
Acceptance back above the 1.4193 asian high puts the range top back in play
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed, plus month/quarter-end flows, could reprice the range
1.4175–1.4200 range; double top at range high, post-NY rebound stalling.
USD/CAD printed a double top at 1.4200, with London at 1.4201 and NY at 1.41995. Williams' no-rush remarks drove the second rejection, which dropped the pair to the 1.4175 session low. The rebound has retraced about 61.8% of that NY drop back to the asian high near 1.4193, with price sitting just above the ema50 around 1.4185 in thin post-NY rollover trade.
Support: 1.4185, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 double top invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 1.4175 session low confirms the double top and exposes the 1.4173 Asian low
Loss of the ema50 near 1.4185 puts the 61.8% retrace back in rejection territory
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) on Wednesday could materially shift this read; Asia session likely range-bound until then
21:17 UTC
Sideways, flat EMAs after failed push at 1.4200 · RSI 55 · price 1.41896
Range 1.4175–1.4200, double top at the cap, repeated demand at the floor.
USDCAD was rejected twice at the 1.4200 cap, once in London and again in NY, and the 17:30 UTC selloff on Williams' no-rush remarks found demand at the 1.4175 range floor for a third time. Price has since retraced about 70% of that drop into the evening high near 1.4193 after the NY close. It now sits near 1.4190 with RSI(14) around 55, flat EMAs and ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.4185, 1.4175, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 cap voids the double top read; the digest flags 1.4250 beyond
Loss of the 1.4175 range floor and the 1.4173 asian low confirms the double top, with 1.4150 nearby per digest
Failure to clear the 1.4193 evening high keeps price in the upper half of the range; the 1.4185 evening low is the first give
Thin post-NY / early Asia session conditions ahead of Wed ADP (12:15 UTC) and US core PCE (12:30 UTC), which could reset the range
1.4175–1.4200 day range; double rejection at top, twin lows at base.
London broke the Asian high and was rejected at 1.4201. Late NY put in a second rejection at 1.4199–1.4200, forming a double top, and the 18:00 UTC drop came as Williams' no-rush remarks hit. The 1.4175 day low held on both pullbacks, and the late-NY rebound has price at the Asian high near 1.4193, sitting on the 61.8% retrace of that drop with RSI(14) neutral around 52.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 double top breaks the day range and invalidates the range read
Failure at the 1.4175 day low and 1.4173 Asian low confirms a lower-low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed could materially shift this read
USDCAD broke above the Asian range in London, but was rejected twice at the 1.4200 range top (1.4201 London, 1.4200 NY). Both pullbacks held the 1.4175 range low, and the 17:00 UTC drop came after Williams' no-rush remarks. In late NY the pair sits mid-range at 1.4188 on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 51, between the 1.4193 swing high and the 1.4181 swing low.
Support: 1.4181, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 range top breaks the double rejection
Failure to hold the 1.4175 range low turns the range into a lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4193 swing high, or loss of the 1.4181 swing low, sets the next intraday leg
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed could materially shift this read
24h range 1.4175–1.4201, double top at range top, double low at range base.
1.4200 capped twice: the London high was 1.4201 and the NY retest failed at 1.4199. The second rejection followed Williams' no-rush remarks and ran to the 1.4175 range low, which also held the midday dip. The late-NY bounce has retraced about 61.8% of that drop into the 1.4193 Asian high, with price hugging EMA20/50 and RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 double top invalidates the range read
Break of the 1.4175 range low and the 1.4173 Asian low exposes the Asia-session base
Rejection at the 1.4193 Asian high / 61.8% fib keeps the range intact into Asia
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed, plus Sep 30 month-/quarter-end flows, could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Sideways, recovering off range low · RSI 58 · price 1.4192
1.4175–1.4201 day range; late-NY bounce testing the Asian high.
USDCAD has held a 1.4175–1.4201 range all day. London set the day high and NY was rejected just below 1.4200 at 1.41995. The late-NY drop found a double low at 1.4175, and the bounce has retraced about 70% of that leg back to the Asian high at 1.4193 as yield-driven USD demand persists.
Support: 1.4186, 1.4175, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 day high breaks the range, in line with the 1.4190–1.4200 resistance flagged in the digest
Slip back below the 1.4186 pivot returns price to the range middle
Loss of the 1.4175 double low and 1.4173 Asian low confirms a range break lower
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) Wednesday could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Range after late-NY selloff, momentum neutral · RSI 45 · price 1.41839
1.4175–1.4200 intraday range; two rejections at the top, double low at the base.
Supply capped USDCAD twice near the 1.4200 day high, in the London morning and again at 16:45 UTC, despite yield-driven USD strength that shrugged off the JOLTS and confidence misses. An 18:00 UTC drop of ~25 pips found a double low at 1.4175, matching the midday trough. Price is now mid-range around 1.4184 and sits under the bounce high, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.41751, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41863, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4186 bounce high puts the 1.4200 day high back in play
Break of the 1.4175 double low exposes the 1.4173 asian low and ends the range read
Sustained close above 1.4201 invalidates the range-top rejection
US ADP 12:15 UTC and Core PCE 12:30 UTC tomorrow could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Sideways, late-NY bounce off range low · RSI 42 · price 1.4183
Range 1.4175–1.4200, two rejections at the top and two holds at the bottom.
London pushed through the 1.4192 Asian high to 1.4201, and NY stalled at 1.4199, a double top at the 1.4200 range top even as yields kept USD bid despite the JOLTS miss. The late-NY slide held the 1.4175 range low for a second time, and price is now at 1.4183, below the 50% retrace of the NY sell-off at 1.4187.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4166
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 range low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.4166 prior low from the rollover
Reclaim of the NY sell-off 50–61.8% fib (1.4187–1.4190) puts the 1.4192 Asian high back in play
Close above the 1.4200 range top after two rejections invalidates the range read
ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC are the next scheduled risk for this range
19:17 UTC
Intraday pullback after session high · RSI 34 · price 1.41783
Lower high at 1.4200, drop back to session low.
The London high at 1.4201 was retested in NY at 1.4200 and rejected, forming a double top. The drop from 18:00 UTC has erased the day's gains back to the 1.4175 session low, which is also the pattern neckline, with the Asian low at 1.4173 just beneath. RSI(14) is near 34, ATR(14) about 4.4 pips, and the pullback comes against a yield-driven USD bid.
Support: 1.41751, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41846, 1.42005
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 session low and 1.4173 Asian low confirms the double top
Recovery above the 1.4185 breakdown level (38.2% of the NY selloff fib) neutralises the drop
Fed's Waller (19:00 UTC, in progress): pushback on an October hike could extend the pullback
Break above the 1.4200 double top reopens the day's high
19:03 UTC
Range, rolling over from the top · RSI 29 · price 1.41764
Double top at 1.4200, price testing the 1.4175 range low.
USD/CAD was rejected twice at 1.4200, at the London high and again late in NY, leaving a double top. The 18:00 UTC slide ahead of Waller unwound the afternoon rally back to the 1.4175 range low, with RSI(14) near 29. Price sits just above the asian low at 1.4173, and the 1.4183 breakdown shelf is now overhead.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4173, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4183, 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Waller speaking at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4173 asian low confirms the double top and opens the 1.4150 psych level
Reclaim of the 1.4183 breakdown shelf returns price to the range, with the 1.4193 asian high above it
ADP 12:15 UTC and Core PCE 12:30 UTC Wed are the next scheduled range-break risks
18:47 UTC
Intraday range, rolling over from 1.4200 · RSI 38 · price 1.41838
Double top at 1.4200, neckline 1.4175 intact.
London and NY both stalled at the 1.4200 round number (1.4201, then 1.41995), leaving a double top whose neckline at the 1.4175 swing low has not broken. A 13-pip drop at 18:00 UTC in late NY took price below EMA20/EMA50 to the 1.4181 london low, which sits at the 61.8% level of the NY rally fib. USD stays supported by 10Y yields above 5.2%, but 1.4200 continues to cap.
Support: 1.4181, 1.4175, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 neckline confirms the double top, with the asian low at 1.4173 just beneath
Recovery above EMA20 and the 1.4193 asian high reopens a test of the 1.4200 double top
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ADP and Core PCE follow Wed at 12:15–12:30 UTC
18:17 UTC
Range-bound, momentum rolling over · RSI 39 · price 1.4186
Twin highs at 1.4200 capping a 1.4175–1.4201 day range; 1.4175 is the neckline.
The London session high sits at 1.4201. NY rebuilt to 1.41995 on firm USD and 10Y yields above 5.2%, but a 13-pip drop at 18:00 UTC rejected the retest and left a double top at the 1.4200 round number. Price is at 1.4186, about 58% into the NY leg fib, back below the asian high 1.4193 and just above the ny swing low 1.4182, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4201
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC, 45 minutes out, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the london low 1.4175, the double top neckline, and the asian low 1.4173 confirms the top and exposes 1.4150
An M15 close back above the asian high 1.4193 negates the rejection and puts the 1.4201 session high back in play
A loss of the ny swing low 1.4182 takes out the 61.8% of the NY leg fib
Higher lows through NY, lower high under London high.
London set the session high at 1.4201, then price fell to the NY low at 1.4175. NY has since built higher lows on yield-driven USD demand but stalled at 1.41995, a lower high just under the London high, and is easing toward the 38.2% fib of the NY leg near the 1.4189 higher low, RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.4189, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 London high breaks the day's range top; the 5-month high at 1.4250 is the next reference
Failure to hold the 1.4189 higher low exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone, with the 1.4175 NY low below
Fed's Williams (now) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could shift October-hike pricing and this read
Higher lows off 1.4175 NY low, second push capped below 1.4201 session high.
The London session high at 1.4201 faded into a 1.4175 NY low at the open. Buyers then built higher lows along a rising trendline, with rate-driven USD strength outweighing soft JOLTS and confidence data. The second NY push stalled at 1.4199, just shy of the session high and the 1.4200 psych level; RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.41893, 1.41822, 1.41753
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4201 session high clears the 1.4200 cap; the digest flags the 5-month high near 1.4250 beyond
A break of the 1.4189 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.4182 higher low and the NY rally fib 61.8% near 1.4185
Failure to hold 1.4175 NY low undoes the higher-low chain
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
USD/CAD broke the Asian range high and printed a 1.4201 London high before a rejection. It then held a 1.4176 session low into the flat, in-line Canada GDP print. The NY leg built higher lows off that low and the 1.4189 swing low, with yields-driven USD demand lifting price back to 1.4199, though the London high still caps. The ATR of about 5 pips points to a tight late-NY range between the trendline and 1.4200.
Support: 1.4189, 1.4176, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 london high breaks the twin-top cap; 1.4250 5m high is the next reference
Loss of the 1.4189 swing low and the NY trendline turns the NY leg into a range
Break below the 1.4176 session low and 1.4173 asian low reverses the day's higher-low sequence
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
London capped the pair at the 1.4201 session high before a pullback to the 1.4175 swing low around the Canada GDP print. NY has since built higher lows, most recently at 1.4189, as USD tracks 5.2%+ US yields and shrugs off the JOLTS and confidence misses. Price is back retesting the 1.4200 round number with RSI(14) near 60, not stretched.
Support: 1.41893, 1.41755
Resistance: 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 session high clears the London cap at the 1.4200 round number
Break below the 1.4189 higher low ends the NY higher-low chain and puts the 1.4175 swing low back in focus
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) speeches on October-hike signals could shift this read in the next few hours
Higher lows through NY, pressing 1.4200 round number.
London set a 1.4201 session high, then the london drop flushed to a 1.4175 session low around Canada's in-line GDP. NY has since built higher lows along the NY trendline, the latest at 1.4189, and is back at the session high and 1.4200 round number with RSI(14) near 63. The recovery tracks the 5.2%+ yields keeping USD firm despite soft JOLTS and confidence data.
Support: 1.4189, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 session high turns the retest into a breakout of the London high
Break of the NY trendline and the 1.4189 higher low turns the 1.4200 area into a double top
Loss of the 1.4175 session low negates the NY recovery
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) speak after London close and could materially shift this read
NY higher-low chain retesting the 1.4201 London high.
Late NY, price is retesting the 1.4201 session high set in London. The rise came off the 1.4175 ny low, with higher lows along the NY trendline and the latest swing low at 1.4189. USD firmness on 10Y yields has outweighed the soft JOLTS print, and RSI(14) at 67 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.4189, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 session high clears 1.4200; the 5-month high at 1.4250 is the next reference
Break of the NY trendline and the 1.4189 swing low would mark a second rejection at the session high
Loss of the 1.4175 ny low unwinds the NY rebound
Fed speakers Goolsbee (17:00), Williams (18:00) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Intraday range below 1.4200, NY building higher lows · RSI 57 · price 1.41901
1.4175–1.4201 range; NY higher lows capped by lower high at 1.4198.
London cleared the 1.4193 Asian range high and printed a 1.4201 session high, then rejected at the 1.4200 psych level. The pullback reached the 1.4175 London low by NY open, just above the 1.4173 Asian low. NY has built higher lows up to the 1.4184 higher low, but stalled at the 1.4198 NY high as firm USD outweighed soft JOLTS; RSI(14) is neutral near 57 with price hugging the EMAs.
Support: 1.41842, 1.41753, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.4198, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 session high breaks the range top and opens the ~1.4250 five-month high
Loss of the 1.4184 higher low and the NY higher lows trendline exposes the 1.4175 London low, then the 1.4173 Asian low
Fed speakers Williams (18:00Z) and Waller (19:00Z) on October hike odds could shift this read within hours
16:03 UTC
Sideways after overnight rise, capped at 1.4200 · RSI 54 · price 1.41901
1.4175–1.4200 range; NY higher low at 1.4176, lower high at 1.4198.
London cleared the 1.4193 asian high, but the 1.4200 round number rejected price twice, at 1.4201 in London and 1.4198 in NY. That leaves a 1.4175–1.4200 range, with the london low at 1.4175. NY bounced from 1.4176 as broad USD strength outweighed soft JOLTS and confidence. Late NY session, price is easing to the 38.2% ny rally fib near 1.4190, just above ema20, with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 round number breaks the range top; the digest flags the ~1.4250 five-month high beyond
Loss of the 1.4182 ny swing low exposes the 1.4175 london low; a break there turns the range lower
Fed speakers from 16:40Z (Barr, Goolsbee, Williams, Waller) on October-hike odds could materially shift this read
Hold above the 1.4193 asian high keeps price in the upper half of the range
15:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, recovering into London high · RSI 62 · price 1.41956
Higher lows through NY off a 1.4175 double low; retesting 1.4200.
The London high at 1.4201 capped the Asia-to-London advance, and the pullback found a double low near the 1.4175 session low. Mid-NY, the JOLTS-miss spike to 1.4192 faded to a 1.4182 higher low before price recovered with the broader USD bid, and now sits back above the asia high just under 1.4201.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 london high breaks today's range top; a rejection there leaves a lower-high risk
Loss of the NY higher-low trendline and 1.4182 reopens the 1.4175 session low
Fed speakers from 16:40Z (Williams 18:00Z, Waller 19:00Z) around the London close could materially shift this read
Asia high at 1.4192 failing on a pullback would undercut the recovery read
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, recovering in NY · RSI 59 · price 1.41935
Higher lows off the 1.4175 double low, capped below the 1.4201 london high.
London broke above the Asian range high (1.4193) and was rejected at the 1.4201 london high, just above the 1.4200 round number, before falling to 1.4175. NY built a double low at 1.4175–1.4176, then broke its 1.4192 neckline as USD shrugged off the JOLTS miss. Price has retraced about 70% of the London selloff and is pressing the 1.4195 ny high.
Support: 1.41822, 1.41753
Resistance: 1.41948, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 london high breaks the session range to the upside
Loss of the 1.4182 ny swing low breaks the NY higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.4175 double low
Fed speakers through NY hours (Barr 16:40, Goolsbee 17:00, Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the NY low, price back under the session high.
London extended the Asian-session climb to a session high at 1.4201, where a rejection at the 1.4200 round number pulled price back to a 1.4175 NY low. Since then, higher lows at 1.4175 and 1.4182 formed, the dip on the soft JOLTS print was bought, and price is back at 1.4193, above the 61.8% fib of the pullback, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 1.41822, 1.41753
Resistance: 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 session high clears the rejection at 1.4200
Break of the 1.4182 higher low undercuts the higher lows trendline
Loss of the 1.4175 NY low returns price to the lower half of the day's range
Fed speakers (Bowman now, Barr 16:40, Goolsbee 17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Intraday recovery after London rejection · RSI 57 · price 1.41931
NY higher lows off 1.4175, retesting the asian high.
London broke the Asian high and printed a 1.4201 session high, then reversed 25 pips to the 1.4175 london low. NY has since built higher lows and is back at the 1.4193 asian high, shrugging off the JOLTS miss on firm US yields. RSI(14) near 57 shows no extreme, and the price is back above the 61.8% of the London selloff fib.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 session high clears the London rejection and the 1.4200 round number
Rejection again at the 1.4193 asian high keeps price inside the 1.4175–1.4201 session range
Loss of the 1.4182 ny low breaks the ny higher lows trendline
A break below the 1.4175 london low negates the NY recovery
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman, then Barr, Goolsbee, Williams, Waller) could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Range-bound after London rejection at 1.4200 · RSI 49 · price 1.41875
Lower high at 1.4192 vs 1.4201; higher lows from the 1.4175 London low.
London broke the Asian range top and ran to a 1.4201 London high. Price was rejected at the 1.4200 psych and slid to a 1.4175 London low. Since then NY has printed higher lows, and the soft JOLTS/confidence data at 14:00 UTC whipsawed price between the 1.4192 NY high (61.8% of the London drop) and the 1.4182 JOLTS low, with RSI 49 and both EMAs flat near 1.4186.
Support: 1.41822, 1.41753, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41917, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4192 NY high reopens the 1.4201 London high and 1.4200 psych
Break of the 1.4182 JOLTS low and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.4175 London low, then the 1.4173 Asian low
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman, Barr, Goolsbee, Williams, Waller) could shift the read after the soft JOLTS print; quarter-end flows add noise
Lower high at 1.4192 after London peak; NY range 1.4175–1.4192.
London stretched the Asia-London leg to 1.4201 and was rejected at the 1.4200 round number, sliding to a 1.4175 session low into NY. A lower high at 1.4192 was capped as the JOLTS miss hit USD. Price at 1.4183 sits below both EMAs, between the 50% fib (1.4187) and 78.6% fib (1.4179), with the asian low at 1.4173 just under.
Support: 1.4179, 1.4175, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4187, 1.4192, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 session low and 1.4173 asian low marks a lower-low and a full retrace of the Asia-London leg
Close back above the 1.4192 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.4200 round number back into play
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman, then Barr, Goolsbee, Williams, Waller) could shift the read after the soft JOLTS/confidence data
14:16 UTC
Intraday range after London high, rebounding · RSI 49 · price 1.4189
London rejection at 1.4200, double low 1.4175–1.4176, higher low into NY.
London extended the Asian high to a 1.4201 session high before rejection at the 1.4200 round number. Price slid to a double low at 1.4175–1.4176, where demand stepped in twice. The NY session rebound is back at 1.4189, testing the Asian high and the 61.8% fib of that pullback, with USD still bid on Fed-hike repricing and in-line Canada GDP offering CAD no support.
Support: 1.4176, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4201
What it said to watch
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC land on the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4193 asian high reopens the 1.4201 session high and 1.4200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4176 double low exposes the 1.4173 asian low and breaks the higher-low sequence
Fedspeak from Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) later in NY hours
14:02 UTC
Intraday range, recovering from NY dip · RSI 56 · price 1.4189
Range between 1.4175 and 1.4201; higher low vs the Asian low, rebound testing the Asian high.
London stalled at a 1.4201 session high at the 1.42 figure and then retraced. After flat Canada GDP, NY found demand twice at 1.4175–76, forming a double low, and price is back near the 50% fib at 1.4189, pressing the 1.4192 Asian high as JOLTS hits in the live bar.
Support: 1.4176, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.4201
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC (current bar) could break the range either way
M15 close above the 1.4201 session high breaks the London cap and the 1.42 figure
Failure to hold the 1.4176 double low exposes the 1.4173 Asian low and voids the higher-low read
Fedspeak 15:00–19:00 UTC (Williams, Waller) may extend volatility after the data
13:46 UTC
Range-bound after London rejection at 1.4200 · RSI 50 · price 1.41856
False break of Asian high, pullback held above Asian low; lower highs broken.
London broke the asian high at 1.4192 on a yield-driven USD bid and tagged the 1.4200 area (london high 1.4201) before reversing back inside the range. The pullback retraced most of the Asian low to London high leg, and the ny low printed twice near 1.4176 just above the asian low at 1.4173. The first hour of NY has pushed back above the descending line off the London high, with price sitting on a flat EMA20 around 1.4186 and RSI(14) near 50 into JOLTS.
Support: 1.4176, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.4201
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak through 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the asian high at 1.4192 reopens a test of the london high at 1.4201
A break below the ny low at 1.4176 and the asian low at 1.4173 completes a full retrace of the Asian low to London high leg
Failure back under the descending line off the London high would restore the lower-high sequence
13:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after rejection at 1.4200 · RSI 37 · price 1.41808
Lower highs off 1.4201 session high; holding above session low at 1.4175.
Rate-driven USD demand carried London to a session high at 1.4201, where the round number was rejected. Price has since retraced almost the entire move from the 1.4173 asian low, with the 12:00 UTC session low at 1.4175 holding. In-line flat Canada GDP left the pair chopping near 1.4180, below the fib 50% at 1.4187, with a descending line capping bounces.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4173, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4187, 1.4193, 1.4201
What it said to watch
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A close below the 1.4175 session low and the 1.4173 asian low exposes the 1.4155 prior low
A reclaim of the fib 50% at 1.4187 and the descending line reopens the 1.4193 prior high and the 1.4200 round number
London false break above Asian high, lower highs since 1.4201.
London pushed through the Asian high at 1.41925 to a 1.4201 London high but was rejected at the 1.4200 round number, and has since retraced about 88% of the Asia-London leg into a 1.41753 session low. Price now sits back inside the Asian range, below both EMAs. Canada July GDP at 12:30 UTC produced only a 4-5 pip bar, and the actual is not yet in the feed.
Support: 1.41753, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian high at 1.41925 reopens the London high at 1.4201
Failure to hold the session low at 1.41753 and the asian low at 1.41729 breaks the Asia-London leg and prints a lower low
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, then Fedspeak into 19:00, could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Intraday pullback within the uptrend · RSI 37 · price 1.41817
London high rejected at 1.4200; price back inside the Asian range.
London extended the dollar-led run to the 1.4200 round number, but it was rejected. The pair then slid about 25 pips back into the Asian range, printing a session low at 1.4175 around the Canada GDP release (actual not yet in feed). Early NY is holding near the 61.8% fib of the Asian-low-to-high leg, with RSI(14) near 37 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.41753, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 session low exposes the 1.4173 asian low and breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Reclaim of the 1.4192 asian high reopens a retest of the 1.4200 round number
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Canada GDP actual still pending in feed; a print away from the 0% forecast could extend or reverse the pullback
London high at 1.4200 rejected, price back inside Asian range.
London extended the seven-day USD/CAD grind on firm US yields, clearing the Asian high at 1.4193 to tag the 1.4200 round number before a rejection and a 25-pip fade that broke the rising trendline and printed a swing low at 1.4175. Price now sits in the lower half of the Asian range, between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements of the Asia-to-London leg, with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR around 4 pips as the Canada GDP bar opens.
Support: 1.41753, 1.41729, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4201
What it said to watch
Canada July GDP (f/c 0%) printed at 12:30 UTC, actual not yet in feed; the release bar can reset this read
M15 close below the 1.4173 asian low turns the London false break into a full range break toward 1.4150 psych
Reclaim of the 1.4193 asian high puts the 1.4200 round number back in play
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak into NY afternoon
Lower highs and lower lows since the 10:15 UTC high, back inside the Asian range.
London broke the Asian high at 1.4193 and tagged 1.4201, then rejected at the round number and fell back into the Asian range. The drop stalled at the 1.4175 session low, just above the Asian low at 1.4173. The trend-line of lower highs from 1.4201 caps the move with RSI(14) near 35, and CA July GDP is due at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 1.41753, 1.41729, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41895, 1.41925, 1.4201
What it said to watch
CA GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4173 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4155 prior low
Recovery above the 1.4190 lower high breaks the trend-line of lower highs and puts the Asian high back in play
A second failure near the 1.4200 round number would confirm the false break above the Asian high
12:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 34 · price 1.41809
Lower highs off 1.4201 session high, testing 1.4181 pre-London low.
Asia and London extended the yield-driven USD bid to a 1.4201 session high. The 1.4200 round number capped it, and a run of lower highs has since pulled price about 20 pips back to the 1.4181 pre-London low, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 1.4155–1.4201 leg, with RSI(14) near 34 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.4181, 1.4177, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.4201
What it said to watch
CA July GDP (12:30 UTC, f/c 0.0%) lands inside the next bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4177 NY high / 50% fib exposes the 1.4173 swing low
Recovery above the 1.4192 Asia high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 1.4201 session high
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC is the next USD-side risk
12:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, sharp pullback from high · RSI 33 · price 1.41809
Lower highs since 10:15 UTC, testing swing low.
London extended the USD-yield-driven advance to a 1.4201 session high but stalled just above 1.4200, and the lower-high sequence since 10:15 UTC has erased the London gain. Price is now back at the 1.4180 swing low, beyond the 61.8% retracement of the asia low to session high leg. RSI(14) sits near 33 into the London-NY transition, with 1.4190 as the nearest lower high.
Support: 1.4180, 1.4173, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4201
What it said to watch
CA GDP (Jul) at 12:30 UTC, f/c 0.0%, could materially shift this read; US JOLTS follows at 14:00 UTC
M15 close below the 1.4180 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.4173 asia low, then the 1.4155 prior ny low
Recovery above the 1.4190 lower high reopens a test of the 1.4201 session high
11:46 UTC
Uptrend stalled, pullback from session high · RSI 47 · price 1.41882
London HH/HL leg to 1.4201 rejected; lower highs since, price back inside Asian range.
London broke the Asian high at 1.41925 on the Fed-driven USD bid and tagged the 1.4201 session high near 1.4200. It was rejected there and slid back into the Asian range. The pullback low at 1.41847 sits near the 61.8% fib of the Asian-low-to-session-high leg, with RSI(14) cooled to 47 in the late-London / pre-NY window.
Support: 1.41847, 1.41815, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4201
What it said to watch
CA July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.0%) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.41925 asian high restores the breakout structure toward the 1.4201 session high
Failure to hold the 1.41815 london low below the pullback low puts the 1.41729 asian low in play
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC add NY-session event risk
London broke above the Asian high, higher lows intact, now retesting.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.4192 and tagged the 1.4200 round number, where supply capped the move at 1.4201. Price is now back retesting the Asian high near the 38.2% of the London leg, with rising support from the Asian low still intact and RSI(14) cooled to 56. The USD bid on hawkish Fed repricing and 5.27% US 10Y yields is carrying the seventh straight session higher.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4182, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
CA July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.0%) could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.4192 Asian high negates the breakout and exposes the London low at 1.4182
A close above the 1.4201 round number opens the path to the 1.4250 5-month high
A break of rising support near 1.4188 puts the Asian low at 1.4173 back in play
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC keep the USD leg live
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after rejection at 1.4200 · RSI 57 · price 1.4194
HH/HL chain from the Asian low; London broke the Asian high, now in a pullback.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.4192 and tagged 1.4201, the session high at the round number, before a rejection pulled price back to that breakout level. The pullback sits at the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg and holds above the rising trendline, in line with the yield-driven USD bid behind USD/CAD's 7-session climb. RSI has cooled to the high 50s.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4182, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4201
What it said to watch
CA GDP (July) at 12:30 UTC, forecast 0.0%, could materially shift this read in the next few bars
An M15 close back below the asian high at 1.4192 puts the London breakout in doubt and exposes the london low at 1.4182
A break of the rising trendline and the asian low at 1.4173 ends the HH/HL chain
A close above the 1.4201 session high clears the round-number rejection
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC is a second volatility window into the NY session
10:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 1.4200 · RSI 62 · price 1.41957
Higher-low chain; London broke the Asian high, rejected at 1.4201.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.41925 and tagged the 1.4201 session high before a rejection at the 1.4200 round number. Price is holding just above the Asian high and the 38.2% of the London leg, with the HL trendline intact. The move tracks the wider US-Canada yield spread on Fed hike pricing, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~62.
Support: 1.41925, 1.4181, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.4201
What it said to watch
CA July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.0%) could materially shift this read in either direction
An M15 close back below the 1.41925 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range
A break of the 1.4181 swing low and HL trendline ends the higher-low chain, with the 1.41729 asian low below
An M15 close above the 1.4201 session high extends the breakout past 1.4200
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC is the next USD-side risk after GDP
London break above Asian range; HH/HL chain into 1.4200.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.4192 after holding a London low at 1.4181. Price has stair-stepped along a rising trendline to a session high at 1.4201, just through the 1.4200 round number. RSI(14) near 73 is warm but not stretched, and firm USD on Fed hike repricing and 5.27% 10Y yields is carrying the leg.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4181, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
CA July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.0%) could materially shift this read; a firm print against short-heavy CAD positioning risks a pullback toward the asian low at 1.4173
An M15 close back below the 1.4192 asian high, where the 38.2% fib of the Asian-low leg sits, puts the breakout in question
Loss of the 1.4181 london low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline
Sustained trade above the 1.4201 session high leaves the 1.4250 5-month high as the next reference
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC (f/c 7.23M) plus Fedspeak can extend or reverse the USD leg
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the 1.4200 round number · RSI 71 · price 1.41998
Higher highs and higher lows off the Asian low, Asian high broken in London.
USD/CAD cleared the 1.4193 Asian high mid-London and is testing the 1.4200 round number. The rally from the 1.4173 Asian low has printed higher lows, including the 1.4181 London low, as firm US yields and Fed hike pricing keep the dollar leg bid. RSI(14) sits near 71 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.41925, 1.41815, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4200 round number opens the path toward the 1.4250 5-month high
A move back below the 1.4193 Asian high puts the breakout at risk of a false break
Loss of the 1.4181 London low breaks the higher-lows chain and exposes the 1.4173 Asian low
CA GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.0%) could materially shift this read; Musalem speaks at 11:30 and US JOLTS follows at 14:00 UTC
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 1.4200 · RSI 72 · price 1.41998
Asian range break, higher-low chain through London.
Mid-London, price cleared the 1.4193 asian high and is extending the rally from the Asian low into the 1.4200 round number, with RSI(14) near 72. Dips since the London open have held a higher-low trendline, and the USD leg is still carried by Fed-hike repricing and the 5.27% US 10Y.
Support: 1.41925, 1.41854, 1.41815
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
CA GDP (Jul) at 12:30 UTC, f/c 0.0%, could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the 1.4193 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4185 higher low breaks the chain, with the 1.4182 london low next
Sustained trade above the 1.4200 round number opens the path toward the 1.4250 5-month high
Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC are the USD-side risk to the move
London broke above the Asian range; higher-low chain pressing the 1.4200 round number.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.41925 after a higher low at 1.41815, printing a session high at 1.41971 just under the 1.4200 round number as the Fed-hike and yield-driven USD bid extends the seven-session run. RSI(14) is near 67, firm but not stretched. The higher-low trendline from the 1.41729 Asian low is intact.
Support: 1.41925, 1.41815, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41971, 1.4200
What it said to watch
CA July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.0%) is the main risk to this structure; a firm print against a stretched CAD-short setup could reverse the leg
M15 close above the 1.4200 round number extends the London breakout
M15 close back below the Asian high at 1.41925 turns the range break into a false break
Loss of the 1.41815 London low breaks the higher-low trendline and the chain from the 1.41729 Asian low
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak through the day, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 1.4173 asian low carried London just through the 1.4193 asian high to a 1.4194 session high, where the move has stalled. Higher lows at the 1.4182 london low and the 1.4185 swing low remain intact. Fed hike pricing and 5%+ US yields keep the pair pressing the 1.4200 round number.
Support: 1.41854, 1.41815, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.41941, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4194 session high opens the 1.4200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4185 swing low breaks the higher-low chain toward the 1.4182 london low
A loss of the rising trendline off the asian low puts the 50% retrace near 1.4184 in focus
Higher-low chain intact; London open marginally cleared the Asian range high and stalled under 1.4200.
London open pushed through the Asian range high at 1.4193 to a session high of 1.4194, then stalled just under the 1.4200 round number. The higher-low chain from the 1.4173 asian low is intact, with Fed-BoC rate divergence still behind the grind. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.41854, 1.41815, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41941, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.4194 session high and the 1.4200 round number extends the HH/HL sequence
Loss of the 1.4185 higher low exposes the london low at 1.4181, near the 61.8% fib of the asian low to session high leg
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.4173 asian low negates the intraday uptrend
Higher lows from the asian low, testing the asian high.
USDCAD extended its grind on Fed–BoC divergence. It broke Monday's 1.4177 high at the Asia open and printed an asian high of 1.4193 before a pre-London dip, and the london low at 1.4181 held. Mid-London, price is back retesting the asian high just under the 1.4200 round number, with the higher-lows line from the asian low intact and RSI(14) near 60, not stretched.
Support: 1.4181, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 round number clears the asian high cap
Rejection at the asian high and a break of the 1.4181 london low undercuts the higher-lows line
Loss of the 1.4173 asian low negates the session uptrend read
Canada July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%): an upside surprise could trigger a pullback from 1.4190–1.4200
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and heavy Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC could shift USD pricing into NY
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under 1.4200 · RSI 58 · price 1.41905
Higher lows since Asia; London holding inside the Asian range, pressing its high.
USDCAD extended its grind higher through Asia on Fed-hike repricing and is back testing the Asian high at 1.4192, just under the 1.4200 round number. The 06:00 UTC dip held near the 61.8% fib at 1.4181, and that London low was defended again early in the session, keeping the rising trendline intact.
Support: 1.4181, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4192 Asian high puts the 1.4200 round number in play
Loss of the 1.4181 London low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.4173 Asian low
Canada July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) could materially shift this read
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC
08:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 54 · price 1.41864
Higher lows intact; early London capped under 1.4193.
Asia cleared Monday's prior high at 1.4177 and extended the higher-low chain to an Asian high of 1.4193, with the pair near its highest since July on broad USD strength and Fed-hike pricing. Early London is rotating between the 1.4181 swing low and the Asian high, which capped the 07:30 UTC push at 1.4191. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.41806, 1.41772
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4193 Asian high puts the 1.4200 round number in play
Loss of the 1.4181 swing low and the rising support from the 1.4173 Asia low breaks the higher-low chain; the Asian leg fib 61.8% sits at 1.4180
Back below the 1.4177 prior high would negate the Asia breakout
Canada July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain through Asia, early London ranging 1.4181–1.4192.
Asia cleared yesterday's 1.4177 NY high on the broad USD bid tied to Fed-hike pricing, printing a 1.4193 session high. The 06:00 UTC flush held the 61.8% of the Asian leg fib at the 1.4181 range low, and a second rejection just under the session high has early London boxed between the two, with rising support from the Asian low still intact.
Support: 1.41806, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4193 session high reopens the path to the 1.4200 psych level
M15 close below the 1.4181 range low breaks rising support and shifts focus to the 1.4173 asian low
Canada July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 55 · price 1.41854
Higher lows since Asia, shallow pullback holding the 61.8% fib.
USD/CAD carried the broad USD bid through Asia in a higher-low chain from the 1.4173 Asian low, clearing Monday's 1.4177 prior high before a rejection at the 1.4193 Asian high at 06:00 UTC. The pullback low at 1.4181 sits on the 61.8% of the Asian leg, and early London is compressing in a 1.4181–1.4188 band just above EMA20 and the rising Asian trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.4181, 1.4177, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4181 pullback low and Asian trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.4177 prior high
Clearance of the 1.4193 Asian high puts the 1.4200 round number in play
Loss of the 1.4173 Asian low negates the overnight uptrend read
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC, JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in early London · RSI 55 · price 1.41857
Higher lows from the 1.4173 Asian low; tight 1.4182–1.4189 consolidation below the 1.41925 session high.
Firm USD on October hike pricing carried USD/CAD to a 1.41925 Asian high. A 9-pip dip at 06:00 UTC found demand at 1.41806, the 61.8% fib of the Asia leg and near the rising support line. Early London is compressing at 1.4182–1.4189, above the fib 50% at 1.4183, with RSI(14) near 55 and no stretch.
Support: 1.4183, 1.41806, 1.4173
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.41806 dip low and rising support exposes the 1.4173 Asian low
M15 close above the 1.41925 Asian high puts the 1.4200 round number in play
Loss of the fib 50% at 1.4183 would turn the London pause into a deeper retrace of the Asia leg
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after London open rejection · RSI 54 · price 1.41845
Higher lows from Asian low; pullback holding 61.8%.
Asia broke above the prior high at 1.4177 and extended to a session high of 1.4192 on firm USD and yields. The London open rejected that high and pushed price to a london low at 1.4181, the 61.8% retrace of the leg up from the Asian low at 1.4173. The rising trendline is intact, RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is about 3.8 pips.
Support: 1.41806, 1.41772, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 1.4181 breaks the rising trendline and exposes the prior high at 1.4177
Loss of the asian low at 1.4173 ends the higher-low chain on this timeframe
Reclaiming the session high at 1.4192 opens the 1.4200 round number, the cap flagged in CAD commentary
Canada GDP 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%): an upside surprise could force a CAD short-covering move
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC, could shift the USD leg
07:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at London open · RSI 57 · price 1.41845
HH/HL chain intact; shallow pullback held 61.8% retrace, now consolidating 1.4183–1.4188.
Asia extended the HH/HL chain from the 1.4173 asian low to a 1.4193 asian high, tracking a firm USD on hike odds and yields near 2007 highs. The early-European dip to the 1.4181 swing low held the 61.8% fib retrace, and price is now consolidating around ema20 into London open with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.41806, 1.41772, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4193 asian high extends the HH chain toward the 1.4200 psych level
Loss of the 1.4181 swing low breaks the rising trendline; the 1.4177 prior high is then the retest area
Break below the 1.4173 asian low flips the intraday HH/HL structure
Canada GDP 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from Asian high · RSI 61 · price 1.41872
Higher lows through Asia; prior-day high broken, 61.8% pullback held.
Asia broke above the prior high at 1.4177 and built higher lows from the 1.4173 Asian low to a 1.4193 Asian high, as USD stayed firm on US yields and Fed hike pricing. The 06:00 UTC drop held at a 1.4181 swing low, near the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg, and price is recovering into the London open with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.41806, 1.41772, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4181 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low sequence and exposes the prior high at 1.4177
Loss of the 1.4173 Asian low reverts the session to a range read
A break of the 1.4193 Asian high puts the 1.4200 round number in play, the cap cited in the news flow
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) could materially shift this read; JOLTS and Fedspeak follow from 14:00 UTC
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, first pullback after Asia push · RSI 58 · price 1.41841
Asia HH/HL chain intact; rejection below 1.4200.
Asia session carried USDCAD from the 1.4173 asian low to a 1.4193 session high on firm USD and US yields above 5%, before a sharp 06:00 UTC rejection just short of the 1.4200 round number. The drop stalled at the 1.4181 fib 61.8 of the Asia leg. Price is hugging EMA20 into London open with the higher-low chain still intact.
Support: 1.41806, 1.41772, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4193 session high reopens the 1.4200 round number
Loss of the 1.4181 fib 61.8 exposes the 1.4177 prior high as first support
Break below the 1.4173 asian low ends the Asia higher-low sequence
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Late Asia session: USD/CAD broke Monday's prior high at 1.41772 and built a HH/HL chain off the 1.41729 Asian low to a 1.41925 session high, tracking the firm USD and rising US yields. Price is holding just under the 1.4200 round number, with the rising trendline and the 1.41818 higher low beneath.
Support: 1.41818, 1.41772, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.41818 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the HH/HL chain
Failure to hold the 1.41772 prior high puts the Asian breakout at risk of a false break
Rejection at the 1.41925 session high vs acceptance above the 1.4200 round number
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) could materially shift this read
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak through NY hours
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, RSI near 70 · RSI 70 · price 1.41889
Higher lows since Asian low, new window high at 1.41925.
Late in the Asia session, USD/CAD cleared the prior day high at 1.41772 and the early-Asia prior high at 1.41845, printing a session high at 1.41925. Firm US yields and Fed hike pricing are carrying the dollar, and the pair has held a higher low at the 1.41729 Asian low. RSI(14) is near 70 and price is sitting on the rising trendline into the London open.
Support: 1.41845, 1.41772, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.41845 prior high, also the 38.2% fib, puts price back inside the early Asian range
Failure to hold the rising trendline from 1.41737 exposes the prior day high at 1.41772 and then the 1.41729 Asian low
Session high at 1.41925 and the 1.4200 round number are the areas to watch for rejection or acceptance above
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) could materially shift this read
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC, are USD-side risk
05:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, grinding higher in late Asia · RSI 71 · price 1.41871
HH/HL chain through Asia, holding above Monday's NY high.
Asia cleared Monday's NY prior high at 1.4177 and printed a session high at 1.4190, as firm US yields and October Fed hike pricing kept CAD heavy. Higher lows at the 1.4173 swing low and 1.4182 are intact along a rising trendline. Price is pausing just under the 1.4200 round number into London, with RSI(14) near 71 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.41818, 1.41772, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41896, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4182 higher low breaks the rising trendline
A move back under the 1.4177 prior high, then the 1.4173 swing low, ends the Asia HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 1.4190 session high puts the 1.4200 round number in play; rejection there leaves a stall under the level
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) could materially shift this read; a positive print is the pullback risk
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, late-Asia highs · RSI 70 · price 1.41885
HH/HL chain through Asia, above prior-day high.
Asia extended the seven-day USD/CAD run on firm US yields and Fed hike bets. The pair cleared Monday's 1.4177 prior-day high and the early-Asia 1.4185 top to print a 1.4190 session high, with the 1.4173 Asian low anchoring the higher-low line. RSI(14) sits near 70 and ATR is only ~3 pips, and London has yet to set its range.
Support: 1.41818, 1.41772, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41896, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Session high at 1.4190 and psych 1.42 are the area to watch for rejection or break into London open
An M15 close below the 1.4182 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low line and puts the 50% of the Asia leg fib near 1.4181 in play
Loss of the 1.4177 prior-day high and the 1.4173 Asian low would negate the HH/HL chain
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in late Asia · RSI 69 · price 1.41885
Higher lows since Monday London; Monday high cleared.
Late Asia has lifted through the 1.4184 prior high to a fresh Asia high at 1.4190, extending the higher-low trendline from Monday's 1.4155 pivot as Fed hike repricing and 5%+ US yields keep USD firm. Dips held at the 1.4173 Asian low, just above the 38.2% fib of the 1.4149–1.4190 move, and RSI(14) near 69 is warm but not stretched with the 1.4200 round number overhead.
Support: 1.41845, 1.41772, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41896, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.4190 asia high puts the 1.4200 round number in play; rejection there leaves a flat top into London open
Failure to hold the 1.4184 prior high and then the 1.4177 monday high weakens the breakout read
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 1.4173 asian low breaks the higher-low chain
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) could materially shift this read; a positive print is the pullback risk
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Fedspeak through the NY session
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 58 · price 1.41832
Higher lows since Monday NY; session high retested.
The Asia session pushed to a session high at 1.4186 after a higher low at 1.4173. That extends the chain of higher lows from Monday's NY low at 1.4155, with firm USD and US yields at 2007 highs keeping CAD heavy. RSI(14) at 58 is not stretched, and ATR near 3 pips reflects thin Asian ranges ahead of London.
Support: 1.4173, 1.4166, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4186, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4186 session high opens the 1.4200 round number flagged in the digest
Failure to hold the 1.4173 higher low breaks the rising trendline, exposing the 1.4166 rollover low
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia session retesting its 1.4184 high after a 38.2% pullback held.
USDCAD extended its seventh-day run on Fed-BoC divergence, breaking the Monday NY range at the Tokyo open and printing an Asia high at 1.4184. The dip to the 1.4173 swing low held near the 38.2% retracement and a rising trendline off the 1.4155 NY low. Price is now back at the Asia high in late Asia session with RSI(14) at a neutral 58, well below extremes.
Support: 1.4173, 1.41656, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4184 Asia high opens 1.4190 and the 1.4200 round number
A stall at the Asia high forms a flat double-top area; failure to hold the 1.4173 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Break of the rising trendline exposes the 1.4166 rollover low, then the 1.4155 ny low
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 56 · price 1.4184
HH/HL chain; Asia broke Monday's high, higher low at 1.4173.
USDCAD cleared Monday's 1.4177 prior high at the Asia open, and dip demand held the 1.4173 swing low. Late in the Asia session, price is back testing the 1.4185 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR at about 3 pips. Firm US yields and Fed-BoC divergence are still carrying the seven-day run.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4173, 1.4166
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4185 Asia high opens the 1.4200 round number
Second failure at 1.4185 leaves a double-top risk; losing the 1.4173 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Break of rising support and the 1.4166 daily open invalidates the intraday uptrend read
Canada GDP 12:30 UTC and US JOLTS 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia retesting its session high after a shallow pullback.
USDCAD pushed to an Asian high of 1.4185 early in Asia on firm USD and US yields at 2007 highs. It pulled back to the 1.4173 swing low and is now retesting the Asian high, with higher lows off the NY low at 1.4158 still intact. RSI(14) near 58 and ATR under 3 pips point to a quiet, orderly session.
Support: 1.4173, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4185 Asian high opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
Rejection at the Asian high leaves an equal-high cap; a close below the 1.4173 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the rising trendline from the NY low at 1.4158 invalidates the intraday uptrend read
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain intact; Asia broke the prior high, and the pullback held above the rising tl.
Asia session cleared Monday's 1.4177 prior high and ran to the 1.41845 asia high. The pullback found demand at the 1.4173 swing low, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.4158 ny low to asia high leg, and price is now back at ema20 with RSI(14) neutral near 49. A firm USD on Fed hike bets and 2007-high yields keeps the seven-day climb intact, but ATR under 3 pips shows a compressed Asian range.
Support: 1.41772, 1.41729, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.41845 asia high reopens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4173 swing low and the 1.4177 prior high exposes the rising tl near 1.4168 and the 1.4158 ny low
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asia high · RSI 52 · price 1.41775
Higher lows since yesterday's London open; Asia pullback retesting prior high.
Asia broke yesterday's 1.4177 prior high on firm USD and yields, printed an Asia high at 1.41845, then pulled back to 1.41729, the asia pb low sitting on the 61.8% of the asia leg fib from the 1.41656 rollover low. Late Asia, price is hugging EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 52, and the higher-low chain from the ny swing low is intact along rising support.
Support: 1.41729, 1.41656, 1.41603
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.41729 (asia pb low) and rising support breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.41656 rollover low
Close above the 1.41845 asia high opens 1.4190 res and the 1.4200 round number
Canada GDP 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in late Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.41759
HH/HL chain intact; pullback from 1.41845 asian high holding above 1.4173 session low.
The Fed-hike-driven USD run pushed the pair to an asian high of 1.41845 early in the Asia session, then it faded to a 1.41729 session low. Price is now back around the 1.4177 ny high and sits on the rising trendline off the ny low, near the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR about 3 pips.
Support: 1.41729, 1.41688, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.41845, 1.4200
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4173 session low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.4169 swing low, then the 1.4158 ny low
Reclaiming the 1.4177 ny high and a close above the 1.41845 asian high extends the HH chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London open in about 4h is the first test of the Asian range
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asia high · RSI 49 · price 1.41759
Higher-low chain since Monday London; shallow pullback from 1.4185 Asia session high.
Monday's higher lows (1.4149, 1.4155 ny low, rollover 1.4166) held. Asia extended to a 1.4185 asia high before easing to the 1.4173 asia low, near the 38.2% of the NY-Asia leg. Price sits just under the ema20 with RSI(14) neutral at 49, with a firm USD on Fed-hike repricing and 5% yields behind the rising lows.
Support: 1.4173, 1.4166, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4177, 1.4185, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4173 asia low and the rising lows line exposes the 1.4155 ny low
M15 close above the 1.4177 ema20 and 1.4185 asia high puts the 1.4200 round number in play
Canada GDP 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after Asia high · RSI 48 · price 1.41753
Higher lows intact; lower highs since 1.4185 Asia peak, pullback into fib zone.
Firm USD and higher US yields lifted USD/CAD to a 1.4185 session high early in the Asia session. It has since faded to 1.4173, the 38.2% fib of the NY swing low to Asia high leg, and is holding just under the EMA20 with RSI(14) near 48. The 50% fib at 1.4170 and the NY swing low at 1.4158 sit below as London open approaches.
Support: 1.4173, 1.4170, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4173-1.4170 38.2%-50% fib zone exposes the NY swing low at 1.4158
M15 close back above the 1.4185 session high brings the 1.4200 round number into view
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 44 · price 1.41733
Higher lows from NY low; Asia fading to 38.2% fib.
Early Asia cleared Monday's prior high at 1.4177 and printed a session high at 1.4185, backed by firm USD on record-high yields and October hike bets. Rejection there has dragged price back to the 38.2% fib at 1.4173, just on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 44. The higher-low sequence from the ny low at 1.4155 holds while the asia low at 1.4169 stays intact.
Support: 1.4169, 1.41664, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.41845, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asia low at 1.4169 exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4166, then the ny low at 1.4155.
Reclaim of the prior high at 1.4177 returns focus to the 1.4185 session high and the 1.4200 round number.
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and the Fedspeak cluster from 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling in Asia · RSI 53 · price 1.41767
Higher lows intact; Asia-open push to new high now retesting the late-NY prior high.
The Asia session opened with a push to a session high at 1.41845, extending the multi-day run on firm US yields and Fed hike pricing, then faded back to retest the late-NY prior high near 1.4177. The higher-low chain from 1.4155 and the rising trendline are still intact, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 53 with price sitting just under EMA20.
Support: 1.41772, 1.4170, 1.41656
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4177 prior high exposes the 1.4170 Asia base, near the 50% fib of the 1.4155–1.4185 leg
M15 close below the 1.4166 rollover low and rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 1.41845 session high reopens the 1.4190 round number and the 1.4200 psych level
Canada GDP (12:30 UTC) and US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back in mid-Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.41767
Higher lows since NY; Asia broke the prior NY high, now retesting it.
Asia cleared the prior NY high near 1.4177 and set an asia high at 1.41845 as firm US yields extended the seven-day run. Price has since faded back to the breakout area with RSI(14) neutral near 49. The 50% fib of the rollover-to-Asia leg at 1.4175 and the 1.4170 figure sit just below, above the rising lows line.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4170, 1.41656
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close under the 1.4170 figure and the rising lows line exposes the 1.41656 rollover low
Reclaim of the 1.41845 asia high puts psych 1.42 back in view
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from the Asia high · RSI 60 · price 1.41789
Higher highs and higher lows; prior high under retest.
The Asia session broke above the late-NY prior high near 1.4177 and printed a fresh window high at 1.41845, extending the two-month highs as the Fed-BoC gap widens. Price is now pulling back into that prior high with RSI(14) cooling toward 60. The 1.4170 Asia base and the 1.4158 NY low sit below, and the 38.2–50% pullback fib zone lies between 1.4174 and 1.4171.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4170, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4177 prior high turns the Asia breakout into a false break and exposes the 1.4170 asia base
A clear break of the 1.41845 asia high puts the 1.4190 resistance and the 1.4200 round number in view
Loss of the 1.4158 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence and marks a deeper pullback
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Early Asia broke above the Monday high at 1.4177 and tagged an Asia high of 1.4185 before easing to 1.4180. RSI(14) has cooled to about 64 as the six-session USD/CAD run extends on the widening Fed-BoC gap. The swing low at 1.4158 from Monday's NY-hours spike anchors the leg, and the asia base near 1.4170 sits at the 50% fib.
Support: 1.41772, 1.4170, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the monday high at 1.4177 turns the breakout into a false break
M15 close above the asia high at 1.4185 opens the round number at 1.4200, with 1.4190 resistance in between
Loss of the asia base at 1.4170 (50% fib) puts the swing low at 1.4158 back in play
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, fresh highs in Tuesday Asia · RSI 69 · price 1.41815
Higher lows since the NY swing low; prior high broken, holding above.
Tuesday Asia cleared Monday's 1.4177 prior high and set a session high at 1.41845, extending the grind from the 1.4158 NY swing low as the Fed-hike repricing keeps USD firm. Price is holding just under the high with RSI(14) near 69 and a thin 2.8-pip ATR; the old 1.4177 prior high and the 1.4170 asia base sit below.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4170, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 closes back below the 1.4177 prior high would mark the Asia breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.4170 asia base exposes the 1.4158 ny swing low and the 50% fib of the NY-to-Asia leg
Session high at 1.41845 is the first cap; above it, 1.4190 resistance and the 1.4200 round number are the next levels in view
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, early Asia extending · RSI 68 · price 1.41815
HH/HL chain from the 1.4155 low; Monday high broken.
The first hour of Asia broke Monday's 1.4177 prior high and made a session high at 1.4185. Price is holding just above the break with RSI(14) near 68 and short-term hot rather than stretched. Dips since the 1.4155 swing low in NY have held a rising support line, consistent with the digest's widening Fed-BoC gap keeping CAD heavy.
Support: 1.41772, 1.4170, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.4177 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the fib 50% near 1.4170 and the rising support line would break the HL chain; the 1.4155 swing low is the next reference
Acceptance above the 1.4185 session high brings the 1.4190 res zone and the 1.4200 round number into view
Canada GDP (12:30 UTC, f/c 0%) and US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read in NY hours
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after Asia breakout · RSI 80 · price 1.41832
HH/HL chain from 1.4158 swing low; Asian range broken higher.
Early Asia broke the tight 1.4170–1.4177 range and cleared the Monday high at 1.4177, printing a session high at 1.4185. The widening Fed-BoC gap keeps USD/CAD pressing higher, but RSI(14) near 80 is stretched on this TF. The rising trendline from the 1.4158 swing low is intact, and the old Monday high is the first area to watch for a retest.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4170, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the monday high at 1.4177 turns the breakout into a false break back inside the Asian range
A break below the asian low at 1.4170 would take out the 38.2% fib of the 1.4158 rally and the rising trendline, exposing the 1.4158 swing low
An M15 close above the session high and the 1.4190 res zone opens the 1.4200 round number
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in thin Asia · RSI 64 · price 1.41804
Higher-low chain since Monday Asia; fresh session high above NY high.
USDCAD has built higher lows all day from the 1.4148 Asian low. Early Tuesday Asia printed a session high at 1.4182, clearing the 1.4177 NY high, with the Fed hike repricing and 2007-high US yields keeping the dollar firm; RSI(14) near 64 shows no extreme, and the asia base at 1.4170 sits at the 50% fib of the swing low-to-high leg.
Support: 1.41772, 1.4170, 1.41583
Resistance: 1.41822, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4177 ny high turns the push into a false break
Loss of the 1.4170 asia base and rising trendline (~1.4167) ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.4158 swing low
1.4190 level and the 1.4200 round number are the next resistance references above the session high
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC, then US JOLTS and Fed speakers on Tuesday, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from London through NY, price testing the day high.
USDCAD built higher lows at 1.4149 in London, the 1.4155 NY low and the 1.4160 NY pullback. Early in Tuesday's Asia session it is testing the 1.4178 day high, with the Fed-BoC gap keeping CAD heavy. Ranges are compressed, with ATR near 2.5 pips, and the 1.4170 late base has held since the rollover dip.
Support: 1.4170, 1.4160, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41778, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4178 day high opens a test of the 1.4190 flagged resistance
A break below the 1.4170 late base brings the higher-low trendline (~1.4165) and the 1.4160 NY pullback into play
Losing the 1.4155 NY low ends the higher-low sequence
Canada GDP 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS 14:00 UTC could reset the intraday range
Higher-low chain since London, pressing window high.
USD/CAD broke above Monday's Asian range and stepped higher through London and NY, backed by the widening Fed-BoC gap. NY's 16:15 UTC spike to 1.4158 was bought back. Early Asia is pressing the 1.4178 window high off a 1.4170 asia base. RSI(14) is near 58 and ATR is compressing below 3 pips.
Support: 1.4170, 1.41656, 1.41603
Resistance: 1.41778, 1.4180, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4170 asia base and the rising trendline near 1.4165 would break the higher-low chain; the gap low at 1.4166 also sits near the NY leg fib 50%
Loss of the 1.4160 ny low would negate the London-NY advance
Close above the 1.4180 round number clears the window high, with 1.4190 cited res next
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC Tue could materially shift this read