USD/CAD tagged a 14-month high near 1.4247 for a second time this week before sellers stepped in during the NY session, slicing back to the 1.4178 day low as the stretched USD leg unwound. Price now sits below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) off overbought back near 43, and the week's 1.4170–1.4248 range remains intact. The 1.4247 double top has capped two attempts.
Support: 1.41778, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.42105, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4170 week low confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.4248 double top opens the path higher
BoC Macklem (Wed 13:00 UTC) and ADP/NFP ahead could shift this read
22:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back from week high · RSI 44 · price 1.41952
Lower high after rejection at the 14-month high.
USD/CAD ran to a 14-month high near the 1.42472 week high into Thursday's NY session on the hawkish-Fed USD bid and softer oil, then faded back below EMA(20) with RSI(14) easing toward 44. Two probes of the 1.42363 prior high and the week high were rejected, and price is now grinding back into the 1.4178 swing low that has held the week's pullbacks.
Support: 1.4178, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.4215, 1.42363, 1.42472
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.4215 ema20 would reassert the push toward the 1.42472 week high
Failure to hold the 1.4178 swing low exposes the 1.41688 week low
ADP (Jul 1, 12:15 UTC) and Macklem (13:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling near highs · RSI 44 · price 1.41948
Twin rejection at 14-month high, pullback.
USDCAD pushed to a fresh 14-month high at 1.4247 mid-week before twin rejections there capped the move, leaving a double top into the NY session. Price has since slipped back below EMA(20) toward 1.4195 as the broad USD bid stalled and WTI steadied, with RSI(14) easing into the mid-40s. The prior swing low near 1.4178 is the first support, with the week low at 1.4169 beneath.
Support: 1.41778, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.4218, 1.4230, 1.42472
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4218 ema20 would reassert the push toward the 1.4247 14mo high
Loss of 1.4169 week low confirms a lower-low and breaks the rising support line
BoC Macklem (13:00 UTC) plus US ADP/ISM ahead could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Range, pulling back from highs · RSI 39 · price 1.41811
Week-long range, rejection at the top.
USDCAD has ranged 1.4169–1.4248 through the week, with the 14-month high at 1.42472 rejecting an advance during yesterday's NY session before price slid back under EMA20. The latest leg lower into the Asia close has RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs, leaving the week-low band at 1.4169/1.4174 as the area in focus. The broader USD bid and softer oil have kept the pair elevated, but the move stalled at the range top.
Support: 1.4174, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4208, 1.42472, 1.4237
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4169 confirms a lower-low and breaks the week's range floor
Reclaim of 1.4208 EMA20 would neutralise the pullback
BoC Macklem and US ADP/ISM Wed could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling after rejection · RSI 46 · price 1.42031
Rejected at week high, pulling back below EMA20.
Price climbed through the NY session yesterday into a fresh 14-month high at 1.4247 before a sharp rejection dumped it to 1.4183, with USD/CAD now stabilising near 1.4203 below the EMA20 at ~1.4221. The move reflects a stretched USD bid against soft oil rather than fresh CAD strength; RSI(14) has cooled back to the mid-40s after the rejection. The 1.4183 swing low is the immediate floor while 1.4221 caps any recovery.
Support: 1.4183, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4221, 1.4247
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4221 EMA20 reopens the 1.4247 week high
Failure to hold 1.4183 confirms a lower-low toward 1.4169 prior support
ADP and Warsh speech Wed plus US NFP later this week could materially shift this read
18:54 UTC
Range, upside fading from week high · RSI 47 · price 1.42007
Rotation below 14-month high, pullback in progress.
USD/CAD pushed to a fresh 14-month high at 1.42472 on the firm-dollar, soft-oil mix before being rejected and unwinding back under the EMA(20). The sharp drop from 1.4247 into 1.4184 capped the week's rally and RSI(14) has rolled off toward the mid-40s, with price now hovering near the EMA(50) around 1.4200. The 1.4236–1.4247 zone has repeatedly capped attempts this week.
Support: 1.41836, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.42361, 1.42472
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.42472 reopens the 14-month-high breakout
Failure to hold 1.41836 confirms a lower-low toward the 1.4169 week low
BoC Macklem and US ADP/ISM Wed 13:00–14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
US NFP later this week is the dominant cross-driver
Higher highs into 14-mo high, then sharp pullback.
USD/CAD ground higher all week on the hawkish-Fed bid and soft oil, tagging a fresh 14-month high near 1.4247 in the NY session before a sharp rejection dragged price back below EMA20 to 1.4205. RSI(14) has cooled from overbought toward 46 as the impulse stalls, and price is now hovering at the EMA50 after the drop. The week's rising-low structure remains intact above 1.4183.
Support: 1.4183, 1.4174
Resistance: 1.42472, 1.4221
What it said to watch
BoC Macklem speech Wed 13:00 UTC and US ADP/ISM could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 1.42472 resumes the uptrend toward the 1.4310 area
Failure to hold 1.4183 opens the path to the 1.4174 week low
15:02 UTC
Range, rejected from highs · RSI 41 · price 1.41872
Weekly range holding, sharp pullback from top.
USDCAD spent the week boxed between 1.4170 and the 1.4247 14-month high, with the latter capping a second attempt before a sharp NY rejection drove price back under EMA(20). CAD firmed on the GDP beat (+0.5% vs +0.4%) while stretched USD longs flagged by the digest left the top vulnerable; RSI(14) has rolled from overbought toward the low 40s. Price now sits mid-range with the prior rejection from 1.4247 the dominant structural feature.
Support: 1.4176, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.4222, 1.42472
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.41688 confirms a lower low and breaks the week's range
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.4222 reopens the 1.4247 week high
BoC Macklem (Wed 13:00 UTC) and Thu NFP are catalysts that could reshape this range
USDCAD pushed to a 14-month high at 1.42472 in the NY session before fading back to 1.42247, with price still holding above EMA20 and EMA50. The advance off the mid-window 1.41688 low has been steady on the hawkish-Fed bid and soft oil, but RSI cycling in the mid-50s shows momentum cooling as the highs were rejected. Demand has stepped in around the 1.4213 day low so far.
Support: 1.42133, 1.4220, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.42472, 1.4310
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.42472 opens the path toward the 1.4310 barrier
Failure to hold 1.42133 day low exposes the rising trendline and 1.41688 swing low
BoC Macklem (Wed 13:00 UTC) and US NFP later this week could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding to range top · RSI 58 · price 1.42248
Higher highs, capped near 14-month high.
USDCAD has ground higher through the NY session, holding above EMA(20) as the USD stays firm into NFP and oil weakness keeps CAD heavy. The 14-month high near 1.42476 has capped the latest push, with price stalling at 1.42248 after rejection there. RSI(14) sits mid-50s, momentum intact but not extended on this timeframe.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4185, 1.41747
Resistance: 1.42476, 1.4310
What it said to watch
Canada GDP (12:30 UTC, f/c 0.4%) can swing CAD into the next bars
H1 close above 1.42476 opens the path toward the 1.4310 barrier
Failure to hold the 1.41850 swing low breaks the rising structure
USDCAD recovered from the midweek low near 1.4169 and has ground back up through the NY session toward the 1.4248 14-month high, holding above EMA20 on each pullback. CAD has stayed on the back foot on soft oil and the hawkish-Fed repricing, with RSI(14) cycling in the upper half but not yet stretched on H1. The 1.4248 prior high is the immediate cap; above it sits the 1.4310 barrier.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4310
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4248 opens the path toward the 1.4310 barrier
Loss of the 1.4220 ema20 would break the run of higher lows
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD based twice near 1.4169 mid-week and has ground back up to 1.4231, holding above EMA20 with RSI cycling in the mid-50s. The recovery firmed through the NY session as the dollar held bid near monthly highs while CAD stayed pinned by soft oil. Price is now testing into the 1.4240/48 week-high zone after a steady run of higher lows.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41747, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.42476, 1.4310
What it said to watch
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
H1 close above 1.4248 opens the path to the 1.4310 barrier
Failure to hold 1.4200 / EMA20 reopens the 1.4169 base
Higher lows since mid-week base, retesting range top.
USDCAD has recovered from the mid-week base around 1.4169 and is grinding back toward the 14-month high at 1.4248, holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the 55-65 band on each pullback. The bid reflects a firm USD on hawkish-Fed repricing while CAD stays pinned by soft oil. Demand has stepped in twice near 1.4170 to build a sequence of higher lows into the NY session.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4169, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4310
What it said to watch
Canada GDP MoM at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close above 1.4248 opens the path toward the 1.4310 barrier
Failure to hold EMA20 near 1.4217 exposes the 1.4169 swing low again
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, recovering off lows · RSI 62 · price 1.4232
Higher lows since mid-week, retesting week high.
USDCAD has carved a series of higher lows since the mid-week dip to 1.4169, grinding back above EMA(20) and pressing the 1.4248 week high on softer oil and a firm dollar. RSI(14) sits in the low-60s, supporting the recovery without flashing overbought on H1. Price holds above the 1.4200 round number ahead of Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 1.4211, 1.4200, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4310
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4248 week high opens the path to the 1.4310 barrier
Failure to hold 1.4200 reopens the 1.4169 support
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has recovered almost the entire mid-week decline, climbing from the 1.41688 week low back above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) holding the upper half. The advance through the European-NY sessions has pressed price into the 1.4239 day high, which has capped two attempts, with the 14-month high at 1.4248 sitting just above. Firm USD on rising Fed-hike odds and soft oil keep the pair pinned near multi-month highs.
Support: 1.4221, 1.4188, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.4239, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4239 opens the path to the 14-mo high at 1.4248
Failure to hold EMA20 near 1.4221 risks a slide back toward the 1.4188 swing low
Canada GDP (12:30 GMT) and US JOLTS/Confidence (13:45-14:00 UTC) could shift this read
Higher lows since Friday's base, pressing range top.
USDCAD has recovered the whole of last week's slide, building higher lows since Friday's base near 1.4174 and trading back above EMA20 and EMA50 into the 14-month high zone. The grind up came as the USD steadied off three sessions of profit-taking, with price now capped just under the 1.4239 session high and the 1.4248-1.4250 ceiling. RSI(14) sits in the low-60s, confirming the rebound without yet stretching.
Support: 1.4208, 1.4174, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4239, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4250 opens the 1.43-1.45 path
Loss of the EMA20 near 1.4208 puts the weekly low at 1.4174 back in focus
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Recovery, momentum building · RSI 64 · price 1.42364
Higher lows off week low, nearing range top.
USDCAD has recovered the full width of last week's slide, climbing from the 1.4168 low back to 1.4236 with higher lows holding through the Asia and early London sessions. The pair eased for a third session earlier as the USD softened on US-Iran de-escalation, but price now sits above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling into the low 60s as it presses toward the 14-month high at 1.4248. That 1.4248-1.4250 zone has capped the week and remains the structural ceiling.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4174, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4276
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4248 14m high opens the 1.43-1.45 path
Loss of 1.4205 ema20 breaks the recovery sequence
Canada GDP (12:30 UTC) and US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
USDCAD has clawed back from the week low near 1.4168 to retrace nearly all of the mid-week drop, now trading above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling into the 60s as the recovery extends through the late session. The pair printed a double bottom around 1.4174 before grinding higher; the 14-month high at 1.4248 is the next structural cap. Price action ties to a firm-but-corrective USD and punitive US-Canada spreads keeping the pair pinned to its highs.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4174, 1.4168
Resistance: 1.4248
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4248 opens the 1.43-1.45 path
Loss of EMA20 near 1.4205 stalls the recovery
Failure to hold 1.4174 swing low reopens the week low
USDCAD based around 1.4174 after the weekend gap and has ground higher through this week's sessions, now testing toward the 1.42476 week high with RSI(14) holding the low-60s. The pair sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) and pullbacks have set higher lows, with demand stepping in near 1.4200. The 1.4248-1.4250 14-month high zone caps the structure overhead.
Support: 1.4201, 1.41747, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.42476, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC could shift the read; an H1 close above 1.4250 opens the 1.43-1.45 zone
Failure to hold 1.4174 confirms a lower-low and breaks the higher-low sequence
Thursday NFP is the dominant cross-driver into week-end
03:01 UTC
Recovering off week low, momentum building · RSI 61 · price 1.42276
Higher lows since double bottom, retesting week range top.
USDCAD has clawed back from the 1.4169 week low, where a double bottom near 1.4174 held, and now trades above EMA20 with RSI cycling into the low 60s. The recovery tracks a softer USD as US-Iran de-escalation drained the safe-haven bid, while CAD found relief from narrowing front-end spreads. Price is pressing back toward the 1.4231 session high, with the 1.42476 week high the next cap.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4174, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.42314, 1.42476, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 1.42476 week high opens the 14mo-high zone toward 1.4250
Failure to hold 1.4209 EMA20 reopens the double bottom
Price has clawed back from the week's 1.4168 low to 1.4228, holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling near 60 — a string of higher lows since Monday's session. The 14-month high at 1.4248 remains the cap, with USD broadly firm but flagged overbought against the Loonie in the macro digest. Recovery is sitting just under the weekly resistance after twin lows printed near 1.4168.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4200, 1.4168
Resistance: 1.4248
What it said to watch
Cdn GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
An hourly close above 1.4248 opens the path beyond the 14-month high
Failure to hold 1.4200 round number reopens the 1.4168 week low
01:02 UTC
Corrective recovery off the lows · RSI 57 · price 1.42161
Range after fade from 14-month high.
USDCAD pushed to a 14-month high near 1.4248 early in the week before fading to 1.4169 as the in-line US PCE print and US-Iran de-escalation trimmed the USD bid. Since then price has carved higher lows back above EMA20 and EMA50, reclaiming the 1.4200 pivot with RSI cycling back near the mid-50s. The 1.4226 session high caps the bounce while 1.4169 marks the week low.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41747, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.42226, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.4226 reopens the 1.4248 week high
Loss of 1.4174 swing low signals a deeper leg toward 1.4169 week low
Consolidation above swing low after pullback from 14-month high.
USDCAD faded from the 14-month high near 1.4248 mid-week, with the NY session selling that down to 1.4169 before buyers stepped in. Price has since consolidated 1.4175-1.4215 and now sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) back near neutral. The week's drop reflects the corrective fade off overbought highs as USD safe-haven premium drained and the in-line PCE print cut Fed-hike odds.
Support: 1.4198, 1.4176, 1.41688
Resistance: 1.42173, 1.42248, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
Close above 1.42248 reopens the path to the 1.42476 week high
Failure to hold 1.41760 confirms a lower-low toward the 1.41688 week low