Downtrend intact since the early-month roll-over from 1.4238, printing lower highs and lower lows into the 1.4000 handle. Price swept the six-week low at 1.39948 then recovered above 1.4000 — a USD-led move as the dollar sags post-FOMC on soft GDP/PCE. Price holds below EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR steady around 24 pips.
Support: 1.3995, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4110, 1.4238
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close below 1.4000 confirms the lower-low and opens the 1.3995 region
Reclaim of 1.4110 would break the descending lower-high sequence
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon Aug 3 could materially shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower through the month in a series of lower highs and lower lows, pressured by broad USD weakness after the soft US GDP and PCE prints. Price swept the 1.4000 psych level to a six-week low at 1.39948 before recovering back above it — a false break rather than a sustained breakdown. ATR sits in a moderate regime and price remains capped below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39948
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4110
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4110 swing high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.4000 psych confirms the six-wk low breakdown
US UoM inflation expectations / Chicago PMI today could shift the USD read
Downtrend intact on H4 with lower highs and lower lows since the early-month top near 1.4238, dragged by broad USD weakness after the soft GDP and Core PCE misses. Price probed below the 1.4000 psych pivot to a 1.3995 swing low then recovered to close near 1.4036 — a potential false break of the pivot. ATR expanded on the break bar, showing an active impulse rather than compression.
Support: 1.39948, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close below 1.3995 confirms a lower low and opens the path toward the June low
Reclaim of 1.4110 range top needed to challenge the downtrend structure
US Chicago PMI and UoM inflation expectations today could shift USD tone and this read
USDCAD has ground lower off the early-month 1.4238 high in a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows, with the latest leg breaking the 1.4000 psych pivot to tag 1.39948 before recovering back above the figure. The dip stalled as a soft US GDP (1.5%) and cooling core PCE capped the dollar's geopolitics-driven bounce. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the downtrend intact, though the sub-1.4000 sweep and quick reclaim reads as a false break for now.
Support: 1.39948, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.41284, 1.42383
What it said to watch
Sustained close below 1.4000 confirms the lower-low toward 1.39948
H4 close above 1.4110 breaks the first barrier and challenges the lower-high structure
Canada GDP MoM at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 40 · price 1.40183
Lower highs and lower lows.
USDCAD is rolling over in a clean downtrend, having sliced through the 1.4020 range floor to a six-week low near 1.4000 as the broad USD unwound after soft US GDP and cooling core PCE. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with a shallow bounce off 1.3995, and the move is USD-driven rather than CAD strength. ATR(14) around 24 pips reflects the volatility spike into the breakdown.
Support: 1.39948, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4055
What it said to watch
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC could shift the near-term read
H4 close below 1.3995 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.4055 would neutralise the breakdown
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 35 · price 1.40183
Lower highs and lower lows, at six-week low.
Sustained downtrend on H4: the pair has printed successive lower highs and lower lows from the 1.4238 area, breaking the 1.4020-1.4120 range floor to a six-week low near 1.4000. The leg lower is USD-driven — broad Dollar unwind after soft US Q2 GDP and cooling core PCE — with price sitting well below EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.3990 swing low held on the initial test, prompting a shallow bounce to 1.4018.
Support: 1.3990, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4110, 1.4128
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.3990 confirms a fresh lower-low and extends the downtrend
Reclaim of 1.4050 would ease the breakdown read
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD is grinding lower in a clean downtrend, price holding well below EMA20 and EMA50 as broad USD weakness after the soft US GDP and cooling PCE bleeds through. The latest leg swept the 1.4000 round number to 1.3990 before recovering to 1.4010, leaving a false-break look on the round-number liquidity. ATR(14) has re-expanded on the two down thrusts, showing the trend is still extending rather than compressing.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3990
Resistance: 1.4050
What it said to watch
Canada GDP MoM at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Sustained H4 close below 1.3990 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.4050 would neutralise the recent breakdown
Downtrend intact since the early-July high at 1.4238, printing a sequence of lower highs into a mid-month grind around 1.405-1.410. Price broke that range decisively, dropping to a fresh low at 1.399 as the dollar stayed soft after the Fed hold and weak US GDP/PCE. ATR(14) expanded on the break, with price below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3990
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4110, 1.4128
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.4055 negates the range break
Failure to hold 1.4000 opens the 1.399 area to further downside
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read